The LATINO VOTE for Trump and WTF Happened?!!! Interview with Mike Madrid

Summary

The MeidasTouch Podcast: "The LATINO VOTE for Trump and WTF Happened?!!! Interview with Mike Madrid"

Release Date: November 10, 2024

Introduction

In this compelling episode of The MeidasTouch Podcast, hosts Ben, Brett, and Jordy Meiselas engage in an insightful conversation with Mike Madrid, a renowned political consultant and author of Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy. The discussion delves deep into the surprising shift of the Latino vote towards Donald Trump in recent elections, examining the underlying causes, implications for the Democratic Party, and strategies for reclaiming this crucial voter base.

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Unveiling the Latino Shift

The episode kicks off with Ben introducing Mike Madrid’s pivotal role in predicting and analyzing the Latino vote's unexpected leanings towards Trump. Ben remarks, “Mike Madrid... wrote the manifesto that predicted the way the Latino vote was going to go” ([00:00]). Mike echoes this sentiment, expressing astonishment at the outcome despite his long-term predictions: “I was taken aback myself... This Latino shift... played a critical role in the outcome of the election” ([01:19]).

Economic Concerns Over Immigration

A central theme of the discussion is the shift in Latino voters' priorities from immigration issues to economic concerns. Mike challenges the conventional wisdom that Latinos primarily vote based on immigration stances, emphasizing, “There’s very little data saying this is becoming more conservative, the Latinos are becoming more conservative. That’s not happening. Latinos... are becoming more populist” ([01:19]). He argues that economic hardships are the driving force, citing that only 20% of Latinos viewed the economy positively in key polls ([08:04]).

Debunking Stereotypes and Misconceptions

The conversation addresses and dismantles prevalent stereotypes about Latino voters. Mike refutes the notion that Latino culture is uniformly anti-woman or hostile towards Black individuals. He states, “Latino culture was anti-woman... It just doesn’t hold water” ([09:24]) and highlights the remarkable rate at which Latinos elect women to office, surpassing other demographics: “Latinos elect women to office at higher rates than any other race or ethnicity” ([09:24]).

Generational Changes and Identity

Mike underscores the importance of generational shifts within the Latino community. He explains, “The vast majority, the explosive growth that is happening with the Latino vote is with third and now fourth generation voters” ([04:30]). These younger generations identify more with being American than with their ancestral origins, which influences their political perspectives and voting behavior.

Strategic Recommendations for the Democratic Party

Addressing the Democratic Party’s challenges, Mike offers strategic recommendations to regain Latino support. He emphasizes the need to focus on economic populism and address pocketbook concerns: “If we start speaking to those pocketbook concerns... we can move this considerably” ([13:49]). Mike is optimistic, believing that with leaders like Ruben Gallego and Catherine Cortez Masto stepping up, the party can effectively reconnect with Latino voters.

Controversial Topics and Open Dialogue

The episode does not shy away from controversial topics, such as machismo and potential misogyny within Latino culture. When questioned about these issues, Mike provides evidence-based counterarguments, demonstrating that cultural stereotypes do not align with voting behaviors: “The two US presidential candidates who did that best... were Barack Obama... and Hillary Clinton... they both received over 70% of the Latino vote” ([09:24]). He emphasizes the importance of moving beyond racial and ethnic lenses to understand the true drivers of voter behavior.

The Path Forward: Reconciliation and Adaptation

In concluding remarks, Mike stresses the urgency for the Democratic Party to adapt and address the mistakes of the past: “This is imminently gettable. It’s entirely possible to bring them back to the high 20s” ([13:49]). Ben echoes this call to action, urging listeners to acknowledge the problem, learn from it, and adapt accordingly: “It’s never too late to acknowledge a problem, learn from it, and then adapt, right?” ([15:33]).

Key Takeaways

• Economic Populism Over Immigration: Latino voters are increasingly prioritizing economic issues over immigration, contradicting traditional assumptions.

• Generational Shifts: Younger Latino generations identify more as American, influencing their political affiliations and priorities.

• Debunking Stereotypes: Stereotypes about Latino voters being uniformly anti-woman or influenced solely by immigration are inaccurate.

• Strategic Reclamation: The Democratic Party must focus on economic concerns and engage with Latino voters on issues that matter most to them.

• Leadership and Adaptation: Strong Latino leaders within the party can play a pivotal role in reconnecting with and mobilizing the Latino electorate.

Conclusion

This episode of The MeidasTouch Podcast provides a profound analysis of the shifting dynamics within the Latino electorate. Through Mike Madrid's expertise, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the factors driving Latino voters towards Trump and the necessary steps the Democratic Party must take to reverse this trend. The discussion underscores the importance of data-driven strategies, cultural understanding, and economic focus in political campaigns targeting the Latino community.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Ben Meiselas ([00:00]): “Mike Madrid... wrote the manifesto that predicted the way the Latino vote was going to go.”

• Mike Madrid ([01:19]): “This Latino shift... played a critical role in the outcome of the election.”

• Mike Madrid ([04:30]): “The vast majority, the explosive growth that is happening with the Latino vote is with third and now fourth generation voters.”

• Mike Madrid ([09:24]): “Latinos elect women to office at higher rates than any other race or ethnicity.”

• Mike Madrid ([13:49]): “This is imminently gettable. It’s entirely possible to bring them back to the high 20s.”

• Ben Meiselas ([15:33]): “It’s never too late to acknowledge a problem, learn from it, and then adapt, right?”

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Final Thoughts

Listeners are encouraged to engage with the ideas presented in this episode by reading Mike Madrid’s Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy. The book offers a comprehensive exploration of the Latino electorate’s evolution and provides valuable insights for political strategists and voters alike.

Stay Connected

For more in-depth discussions and breaking news updates, subscribe to The MeidasTouch Podcast and join the MeidasMighty community. Catch live video episodes every Monday and Thursday night at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT on the MeidasTouch YouTube channel.

Transcript

[A]

We have only one option right now, and that is to build, to learn the lessons of what went down and someone screaming from the roof about what was about to happen, who literally wrote the manifesto that predicted the way the Latino vote was going to go. We've had him on the network before. We've tried to get people to listen to me, tried to get people to listen to me. Convinced some, but I don't think people fully heard the message. But he's been very vindicated, you know, perhaps, you know, the fact that he was so vindicated in the warnings. Wish people would have heeded his call earlier. It's Mike Madrid, of course, consultant, political consultant, but the author of the Latino Century How America's Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy. Mike, you've been saying this was going to happen. You warned about it. You said this would be the difference in the election. And what we saw is basically the Biden lead Amongst Latinos in 2020 essentially just flipped. And that plus a few other things were, you know, flipped in favor of Trump. That, plus a few other things, that was the difference maker and where Trump found those votes and how he was able to turn this election. So I want to get your initial thoughts, then let's talk about what we can do. But let's start with just your initial thoughts.

[B]

Yeah, well, first, Ben, always, man. Love being with you, love what you built, the show. You're just the tip of the spear on all of this. And so thank you for everything that you've done. And it's great to build kind of a friendship with you virtually, anyway, over the years. Look, I was taken aback myself as somebody who's been saying, you know, this is the potential. This could be coming, red flags. Let's pay attention to this. And again, we're looking at exits right now. I think when we do finally get the final numbers, it'll tighten up a little bit and it won't be as dramatic. But obviously it played a critical role in the outcome of the election. This Latino shift I'm talking about. We'll run through the nuances in just a moment, but I want everybody to know something and hear and listen to me really, really closely. This is all fixable. This is all fixable. There's very, very, very little data that I have looked at over the past decade, and that's how long this has been happening, by the way. We'll get to that, too. But there's very little data saying this is becoming more conservative, the Latinos are becoming more conservative. That's not happening. That's not happening. Latinos in many ways are becoming more populist. That is happening. It's why I mentioned in the book, in the conversations that we've had that, you know, Bernie Sanders was one of the only other American politician who drew huge numbers and big shifts and big supports away from the Democratic Party was Bernie Sanders. And it wasn't necessarily because of the policy prescriptions. It was because of the anti party messaging. And that's going to have to be part of what I think the Democratic Party emerges as. But there's no question that there's a lot of angst and this was overwhelmingly economic driven. The data is pretty overwhelming. We can get into the sexism, racism, misogyny, conservative religious stuff. Most of that in the book, you know, anticipated and went in great detail to sort of dispel all that and say don't, don't get caught up with that. If you focus on the economy and make these adjustments, there's a good chance you can get back into this. But that's the broad, those are the broad strokes, is this is gettable, it's fixable. This didn't have to happen. It did happen. Now we're either going to be self reflective and learn from it or there will be 5 million new Latinos registering to vote in the next four years or it will move another 7 to 8 points and I'll raise the alarm bells again. You heard it here on Midas Touch. If we don't, if corrections aren't made, you will see Latinos getting upwards of 50%, maybe more in the next election. So got to really stay focused.

[A]

Mike, let me give you the talking point that you've pushed back on and you've said you're seeing this issue all wrong. When people in the political orthodoxy, the consultant class would say, look, of course the Latinos are going to vote for Democrats and against Trump. Trump's talking about mass deportations. He's saying he's going to deport their relatives. So they're not going to vote for the guy who's threatening to deport them and their relatives. To that you say.

[B]

To that I say the reason why I wrote the book was to explain why this has been happening for over a decade. And the reason why is demographic. The vast majority, the explosive growth that is happening with the Latino vote is with third and now fourth generation voters. It's very important to understand that these voters, almost all of them under 30 years of age or older, have very little if any connection with the immigrant experience except for their grandparents. And I Want you to put yourself in the shoes of these folks. If your grandparents were immigrants or maybe even earlier or maybe 100 years ago. Right. There's a lot of people been there for a very long time to talk to people exclusively through the lens of immigration or to say, you're all going to be deported, it doesn't matter. It's falling flat for people that aren't highly engaged voters and that aren't watching a lot of political news all the time. They don't believe we can debate whether it is or not. I believe you should take a politician his word. But the polling data shows overwhelmingly, they don't believe that Donald Trump is talking about them. In fact, they think they're talking about the issues that they are equally concerned about, which is the rising number of undocumented people coming across the border, the change in Latino vote. Latino public opinion as it relates to the border is for increased border security. It's not for an increase in the pathway to citizenship or immigration reform. We do support those as a community, broadly, but we have to pay attention. Kamala Harris made those adjustments for a reason. She would not have made such a dramatic change, nor Joe Biden inciting the asylum decree, unless the data strongly showed not just that all Americans are there, but Latino voters are there. So we're gonna have to start talking to Latino voters less and less through this racial and ethnic lens and get past the idea that everybody is consumed by immigration. And how can you vote for somebody who wants to deport you and your family and your relatives and people in your community and start recognizing this is overwhelmingly a pocketbook voter. This is an affordability problem. That same New York Times poll showed that only 20% of Latinos in the New York Times LA Times Poll A week before the election said that the economy was good or excellent. 20%. So these are people that are struggling. It's not easy. It's not going well for them day to day. And it is a little bit easy, I think, to suggest that Latinos are. The overriding factor is going to be these immigration questions, or that The S&P 500 is doing really well, or that Biden's plans, as he mentioned today, a lot of my plans aren't going to be felt for years from now. So I get it. I understand the frustration. I completely. I'm frustrated, too. I spent two years along with you, you know, fighting. We worked together, brothers in Arms in 2020. I get the frustration. It's why I wrote the book. I was saying, guys, this is coming. This is coming and. But I hope that's a good enough explanation. I think I'll be saying that over and over for the next few years. So people kind of understand it. But this is largely a demographic consideration that the stereotype of who we've known Latino voters to be for the last 25, 30 years is wholly different than Latino voters will be for the next 25 and 30 years.

[A]

You know, and, you know, you've been again, shouting from the rooftop. We've had you on multiple times. We've been messaging that as well. And, you know, while I was hoping to get that message out more, again, it appeared that we were moving against a lot of headwinds within the Democratic Party that was trapped in a mindset that seemed to be completely outdated. It's why you wrote the book. Let's, let's get into a controversial area, though. You know, there are some people who will say, and we should address everything publicly and transparently. Look, it was a woman who was running. It was a black woman who was running. And is there something to that in a machismo culture? I mean, I, I've heard that before. So for me to ignore that in a discussion would kind of be me leaving out something that are the whispers behind the door. And I don't think that's fair to my community to ignore it, even if it's a controversial topic. And I'll just, I'll give this data point, but then I'll throw it to you while, as you always say, do not think about Latinos as a homogenous group. This Latinx label has been harmful as can be lumping people together. But you look in Mexico, I mean, Claudia Sheinbaum, you have a Jewish woman in Mexico as the leader. So that at least is one data point that they elected, you know, a.

[B]

Jewish woman by a wide margin, incidentally. But let me look, these are legitimate questions and I actually include a chapter in each on my book because I think that they're that important. Let's talk about the machismo thing for just a moment here. The idea, and I'm getting this constantly, especially now, there's a lot of anger saying, well, it's all machismo culture and you're all misogynist. The two US presidential candidates who did that best in US history were Barack Obama, who got over 70% of the Latino vote, including the Latino male vote, and Hillary Clinton, who got 69% of the Latino vote, including Latino males. So what we're seeing is this movement away or towards the Republican Party and towards Trump, as I mentioned earlier, as a function of the third generation, which has the weakest ties to the country of origin, they have the weakest Latino anchor. Two thirds of them identify primarily as typically American. And by wide measures over their country of origin, they're Latino, they're Hispanic, but overwhelmingly they view themselves as typically American. That's when this emerges. So unless machismo is this recessive gene that skips two generations and then reemerges when everybody is identifying more as Americanized, it just doesn't hold water. If you believe that Latino culture was anti woman and would never vote for a black person or a woman, then why, when we were a much more recently immigrated naturalized voter, were we setting the high bar for a black man and a white woman? It just, it defies all rationality. Moreover, and this is important too, Latinos elect women to office at rates higher than any other race or ethnicity in the country where we're from. Ban California, there are more Hispanic women in the legislature than there are Hispanic men. Let me say that again. We've elected more women to the legislature than men. That is something that white women have not been able to accomplish since suffrage. And it's not just a blue state phenomenon. Texas is almost at parity. Florida's not too far off. Now, New Jersey, overwhelmingly women. So maybe there is a blue state advantage. But regardless, in every race or ethnicity, Latinos are electing women to office at higher rates than any other race or ethnicity. That has to count for something, along with the fact that our highest votes totals have gone towards women. And we don't even need to get into the subjective of the matriarchal culture of Latin American culture, because that's just the way that, as I argue in my book, the Latinization of America is going to lead to the feminization of America. And again, there's just overwhelming data to suggest that it's not only not true, it's the exact opposite. But I understand these are highly emotional times, you know.

[A]

And then finally, among the highly emotional times, you know, there is the blame game going around right now. And look, I have TikTok. So I see, you know what's sometimes being posted about Latinos who voted for Trump and you see it on social media all the time. I think one of the things though, that you've warned against is, look, are you in the business of trying to win elections in the future or potentially further alienate groups and push, as you said, there's going to be another 5 million Latino voters in this next election. So if You've done things that were perhaps not ideal understatement with the existing voter base of Latinos such that we saw this massive shift. Five million more voters. If you're going to alienate and point fingers and, and push further away, just from a strategic standpoint, number one, you're making a giant misstep. But two, you know, as you said, it's not a conservative shift so much as it is an issue shift. But I'll let you. I think that's where we should close this and then have you on much more frequently. But I think we hit all the key issues there.

[B]

That's right, Ben. And look, what I want, what I want. And I understand it's a highly emotional time and there's a lot of, you know, a wide range of emotions coming out. But, Ben, you articulated it perfectly. I want to leave people with this. This is. This is imminently gettable. Again, it's absolutely possible to get back to not just the 2020 numbers, which I don't think were particularly great for Democrats, it's entirely possible to bring them back to the high 20s. I'm talking about Republicans. Right. That you can move this considerably if we start to address this as the economic populist, working class concerns that started the erosion in the first place. Again, remember, this started after the Obama era. This didn't just happen in 2024. It didn't just happen in 2020. It began years before that. And the good news is this has been, unfortunately, a response to the parties changing coalitions. But it's imminently fixable if we start speaking to those pocketbook concerns. I saw Kamala Harris begin to do that. But you can't fix in 100 days what, you know, a couple of decades worth of messaging in the wrong direction leads you to. So I'm hopeful. I really do feel that the party's going to get this, and I think it'll be pretty quick as it goes through this process of trying to understand and learn about the direction to go in. I think you're gonna see a lot of Latino leaders, hopefully Ruben Gallego in Arizona, my good friend Alex Padilla in the US Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto. These are all future leaders. There's a very good bench of elected officials, Latino elected officials, that can really meet the moment, step up and rise to the occasion and help the party fix this problem. And I think they will.

[A]

Everybody make sure you get the book, the Latino Century by Mike How America's Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy. It was prophetic. I mean, I would say, I wish people would have read it in real time. They did, but I wish more people would have because you were spot on. But, you know, look, it's never too late to acknowledge a problem, learn from it, and then adapt, right?

[B]

That's exactly right. Ben, thanks so much for having me. I appreciate you.

[A]

Absolutely. Everybody hit subscribe. Let's get to 4 million subscribers, and thanks for watching real quick. Meta just changed their algorithm to suppress political content. Please follow our Instagram idustouch right now as we head towards 400,000 followers, so you don't miss a beat.