Political News Commentator (9:46)
And then you have Iran posting on their social media accounts the following about Donald Trump, amateur hour diplomacy. Here's the video they just posted on the Iranian social media accounts. Let's play it. Now. One of the things that also came out of this Situation Room emergency meeting, we're learning that the US is preparing in the coming days to board and seize Iran linked tankers and commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials. We'll see if that actually takes place because we know Iran will shoot back and they will fight back and that will just lead to more escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy put out the following statement. No vessel should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf or the Sea of Oman. The strait is closed following Iran's announcement permitting non military vessels to pass through the Larrack corridor. That's that corridor that goes really close with Iran's coast and Iran is saying that's the coordinated route that they were going to allow ships that pay a toll to go through. And then Donald Trump's like the whole straits open but we're going to continue the blockade. So Iran was like okay, we're not even going to allow the Lara corridor to stay open. So there were ships that were going through the Lara corridor then. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said. However, after the American side violated the cease fire conditions and failed to lift its naval blockade. Right. The Trump regime has that naval blockade of the Persian Gulf on Iranian vessels and ports. The Strait of Hormuz has been close closed as of yesterday afternoon. Until the blockade is lifted. We therefore warn that no vessel should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf or the Sea of Oman approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy and any violating vessel will be targeted. All vessels and their owners are also instructed to follow updates only through the official IRGC Navy channels and Channel 16. Statements by the terrorist US President regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf Gulf have no credibility. And you also have the head of Iranians Parliament National Security Commission releasing a statement about Donald Trump's claims on Friday delivering uranium to America. The complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of the American maritime siege of Iran and zero enrichment are just part of Trump's April lies and fabrication. That's what Iran Parliament's National Security Commission is releasing. Also Iran's parliament leader M.B. golubov gave a long interview yesterday which was broadcast on Iranian tv. This was like the must watch interview if you were in Iran because they wanted to know what Golubov, who's the lead negotiator or was the lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, what he had to say and here's what he said during this big kind of primetime Iranian interview that he gave yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We responded decisively to the US attempt at mine clearing and considered it A violation of the ceasefire. The situation escalated close to confrontation, but the enemy backed down. If traffic is currently taking place in the strait, it is because the control of the strait is in our hands. The Americans have announced a blockade in recent days. This is a reckless and ignorant decision. It is impossible for others to pass through the strait while we cannot. If the US does not lift the blockade, movement through the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be restricted. I am ready for martyrdom. We are ready both to shed blood and to endure deep hardship. The enemy, the United States sought regime change and to Venezuelanize Iran in order to auction off our oil. But they failed. We are fully prepared and if they the United States makes the slightest mistake, we will respond with force. The enemy failed in its various plans it had. Destroying the air Force and missile capabilities, destroying the Navy, launching a ground attack and opening the Strait of Hormuz. And all of these, they were unstable, successful and in fact what we Learned just now, US intelligence assesses that Iran still retains 40% of its pre war stockpile of drones and after conducting operations to dig up buried missile cities during the ceasefire, 60% of its missile launchers. So Iran has most of its weapons and during the ceasefire they are rapidly building right now. Now, may I share with you something before we go? This is from Danny Citroenitz, He's a former analyst of Iran in the Middle east region where he was an analyst for Israel. But he's been providing very critical analysis against the United States and Israel's horrific war plans over here and their unlawful war. But his analysis I think really actually understands the Iranian regime at a deep level. And I don't think you're really hearing this anywhere else. So let me just share with you what he said. He goes I don't know what has been presented in the White House during this emergency situation room meeting that I've been talking about on this video, but this is the adversary status I would present with. One important takeaway at this stage. The most important requirement for US policy is strategic realism about what the use of force can still achieve against Iran. Iran's leadership is not interested in prolonging the war, but it believes it holds an advantage in a pain tolerance competition, visa, the United States and the international community. Threats of force are unlikely to produce meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is expected to hold firmly to the red lines it has maintained from the outset. In other words, that 10 point framework. It's non negotiables, it's not moving away from those. It will keep control of the Strait of Hormuz. It will not give up its ballistic missiles. It wants to enrich uranium. Maybe you can have a timeframe of where they will stop urging, but they're going to say they're going to enrich uranium. They want security guarantees for themselves and for Hezbollah and for their Shiite groups in Iraq. And for the Houthis, they're what they call the access of resistance. They want reparations for the war. These are some of their non negotiables. They want to charge a toll through the Strait of Hormuz when they control it. These, they've always said non negotiables and the threats of force are unlikely to change that. In fact, and a likely harden that and allow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps contingent that's in power to assume, assert more power over, let's say more of the kind of civilian negotiators. Maritime pressure by the United States will not compel Iranian capitulation. Absent an agreement, it is more likely lead to a direct confrontation between the US And Iran. Interdictions of Iranian shipping may accelerate escalation, but not surrender. The current Iranian leadership will not give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, support for its regional network of proxies, or its strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Limited strikes will not alter this trajectory. Tehran is not easily swayed by signaling A broader campaign against Iran's civilian infrastructure could severely damage its economy, but would almost certainly trigger wide scale retaliation, particularly against energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Without regime change, which would require a dramatic US Investment in time, resources and political will, these core dynamics are unlikely to shift. Shift decision making in Iran is becoming more fragmented and hard line, increasingly shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military factions. This makes coherent compromise more difficult than in the past. What Iran did not concede before or during the conflict, it is even less likely to concede now, regardless of military pressure or blockade measures. In the absence of a deal, escalation is not a risk. It is the default trajectory. Iran is already preparing for it, including efforts to rebuild and reinforce missile capabilities. To date, even successful operational achievements have not meaningfully changed Iran's strategic calculus. Paradoxically, the campaign has weakened Iran economically, but strengthened the regime internally, especially among the regime supporters. So I think that's, I mean, that's an important analysis for you to examine and I think it's spot on. I mean, from all of my studies in the region, I think that's the most accurate assessment that you have. And when Trump threatens and escalates, you're just doing as part of a negotiation, you're not going to get the outcome of Iran capitulating, you're going to get the opposite outcome. I know it's almost fairly basic to say that, but I think understanding the history there a little bit is helpful. We'll keep you posted every step of the way. As always, Hit Subscribe Help us get to 7 million subscribers. You may think you're subscribed, but you may not actually be subscribed. So double check and help us get to 7 million. Thanks for watching. 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