Michael Knowles (3:26)
I love this statement. He says, I don't think my job is to stare into the souls of every foreign leader and mete out punishment by sending American troops in to go meet out the punishment, to punish these foreign leaders for their personal sins. That's not how I view foreign policy. That's how Democrats now view foreign policy. That's how Republicans viewed foreign policy, especially about 20 years ago. He says, that's not what I'm doing. I view my job as requiring me to defend America and to secure peace and prosperity. This is beautiful. This is an articulation of Trump's understanding of America. First, as I pointed out yesterday on the show, Trump can go in and he can cut a big arms deal, the biggest arms deal in history, with Saudi Arabia, the day after he accepts a nice luxury jet as a gift to the United States from Qatar. Qatar and Saudi Arabia generally don't get along very well. Trump can go in, he can try to work out a deal with Iran. He can also get a town named after him in Israel because he backs the state of Israel. These are sworn mortal enemies. How can he do that? Because Trump, while he is allies with places like the state of Israel or with Saudi Arabia, while he can do some business with Iran or, say, Qatar, Trump's objective is to promote the interests of the United States. That's it. Yet we have alliances, but we're not gonna have entangling alliances that force us to put ourselves second and to become just some kind of worker bee for foreign states or for international organizations or anything like that. He says, my job is to defend the United States and then furthermore, as the global hegemon, because we're not just a tiny little isolated republic of yeoman farmers. We are the global superpower. We are the global empire. Trump's vision is imperial. That's why he wants Greenland. That's why he wants Canada. That's why he wants the Panama Canal. Because of that, he says, my job, as, as a secondary matter is to secure peace and prosperity. This is what empires are supposed to Do. The job of an empire is not to insist upon a completely homogenized instantiation of justice everywhere in the world. The purpose of empire is not to blot out all kinds of local traditions, all kinds of local interpretations of the natural law and the moral order. No, no, no. The purpose of an empire is to ensure peace and prosperity. This is a classical understanding of politics. It's not a super modern understanding. It's not a highly ideological understanding. This is the classical understanding. Last year, last summer, I gave a long lecture on Dante and his political vision and the classical political vision. This is top of the list for Dante. As Dante was living in civil war, it was the great sorrow of his life. He says, in order to have freedom, freedom, the greatest gift from God, you have to have peace. And the job of the empire, not of the local government necessarily, not of intervening institutions, but of the empire, is to ensure peace. And that's what I'm gonna do. So maybe Saudi Arabia's not gonna like it if I cut a deal with Qatar. Too bad. Maybe the state of Israel's not gonna like it if I cut a deal with Iran. Too bad. Maybe India's not gonna like it if I cut a deal with Pakistan. I don't know. I'm speaking hypothetically here. Too bad. My goal as emperor, says Trump, or it's what he's insinuating is I'm gonna pursue peace and prosperity because that's the role of the empire and that happens to be in the American interest. I love this. This is correcting some of the real errors of the Bush era. It's correcting a lot of the errors of the liberal establishment right now. It's just spot on. Now what does it mean for America? Well, already what we're getting out of this Middle east tour is JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs coming out and saying, actually, nevermind, I know we told you that we might be headed for a recession. Well, we're correcting that we're likely not headed for recession. You know, you know how much I hate to say I told you so. What did I say on the show? Was it yesterday or the day before? I said, looking at the China trade deal, I am beginning to think whatever the substance comes out of it, people will say, well, he shouldn't have done the trade deal anyway, or he should trade war rather, or he shouldn't have implemented the tariffs, or you should have done the tariffs in another way, or blah, blah, blah, who cares? Regardless of that, my political conclusion is six months from now, we might be in a position where all that market volatility that all the Democrats were making hay over will be a distant memory. No one really will remember it. It will not be a live political issue. They said that like two days ago. And then what happens? J.P. morgan, which was warning of recession, said, we think the U.S. is heading into recession. JP Morgan places the probability now below 50%. Goldman Sachs, which never thought that we were most likely going to have a recession. Goldman Sachs put the possibility of recession at 45%, has just reduced its likelihood. Its prediction now brings it down to about 35%. Barclays has totally dismissed recession risks, says, nope, we're not headed for recession. This is one I actually will say, I'm very happy to say I told you so because it's good for our portfolios, it's good for our economy, it's good for the Trump agenda, it's good for Republicans political prospects. But just think, a month ago, two months ago, remember Trump had that word, panicans. He said, don't be a panican. And all the geniuses, all the geniuses in the Democrat Party and all the fancy people on cnbc, and many Republicans were losing their minds. Oh, no, this is the end. There's no way we're headed for recession. This is gonna destroy all of Trump's agenda and it's gonna kill our bank accounts. I said, hey, chill out. Let the guy cook. He's got a pretty good track record. I have questions about the tariffs, too. In fact, I still have questions about the tariff policy today. Exactly what the goal was. But again, that's kind of part of Trump's negotiation, is that he likes to be unpredictable and it served him well. I said, just chill out for a second, lift your head up in a few weeks, see what happens. And what happens, the same major financial institutions that were predicting recession now say, nah, actually, we're good. We're like two days into the Middle east tour and we're a few days out. After Trump and China have apparently resolved their trade differences, things are looking pretty good. I have many more pearls of wisdom to give you. 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That's 80% off the normal price. When you go to getkickoff.comknowles today, that is kickoff K I K O F F without the C. Getkickoff G E T K I k o f f.com knowles you must sign up via getkickoff.com/knowles to activate the offer. Offer applies to new Kickoff customers. First month only. Subject to approval. Offer subject to change. Average first year credit score impact of + 84 points Vantage score 3.0 between January 2023 and January 2024 for kickoff credit account users who started with a credit score below 600, who paid on time, who had no delinquencies or collections added to their credit profile during the period, late payments may negatively impact your credit score. Individual results may vary. You are already seeing the signs that we're not headed for a major financial catastrophe. Here's one piece of evidence. It's not merely that I have a Nostradamus crystal ball. You can see the signs. Here's a big one that came out from the Labor Department. Prices have risen at an annual rate of 2.3%. So we don't want our prices to go up at all. But that's just how economies work. An increase in 2.3% is the smallest increase in prices since 2021, since the beginning of Joe Biden's term. So you then look at the stock market. The S&P 500 came roaring back. The S&P 500 came roaring back so strongly that it actually wiped out all of the losses. The S&P 500 is now positive on the year. People were predicting a high likelihood of recession before Trump got elected. They thought the stock market was just overinflated. And then you had this major market correction. Now the market's back, and I hope people were able to talk to their financial advisors, maybe get some stocks on discount, you know, if that's part of your financial plan. But in any case, all of that worry, all that hair, you lost, all that sleep, you lost, all those extra wrinkles on Your face. Done. Now, the other takeaway from this politically, and this will be observed by our adversaries and trading partners, is it's pretty clear that the tariffs were about leverage, primarily less so, about raising revenue, less so about reassuring American jobs. This is about leverage, about getting better trade deals, because all three of those trade goals, as I've mentioned on the show, are in conflict with one another. So, okay, it's about leverage. It's about getting new trade deals. We're seeing some of those new trade deals now on the Middle east tour. Good stuff. Good stuff for now. I know it's very untrad. It's very unconservative to suggest that we're not constantly on the brink of absolute catastrophe. But right now, things are looking pretty good, at least economically. The west, however, faces problems beyond the economy. For instance, a man who was going viral yesterday on the Internet for praising martyrdom. This is some Islamic scholar or cleric. He's wearing kind of traditional clothing and he's going on TV to sing the praises of mothers and fathers who raised their little boys and girls to be martyrs and blow themselves up and, you know, attack the west through jihad or go attack the Jews or something like that. What made this video particularly OD is it wasn't filmed in Gaza, wasn't filmed in Tehran, it wasn't filmed in Saudi Arabia. The guy's Canadian.