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You're listening to the Monocle Daily, first broadcast on the 4th of May, 2026 on Monocle Radio.
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5000 US soldiers in Germany begin packing their kit. Canada's prime minister flies a long way for a European summit. And exciting news for listeners considering a career switch to Japanese cormorant fishing. I'm Andrew Muller. The Monocle Daily starts. Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily. Coming to you from our studios here at Midori House in London, I'm Andrew Muller. My guests Alex von Tunzelman and Robin Lustig will discuss the day's big stories. And we'll hear from the author, Joe Luke Barnes, who may have written the Last Outsiders travelogue of Russia and the former Soviet Union for some while to come. Stay tuned. All that and more coming up right here on the Monocle Daily.
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Foreign.
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This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Andrew Muller and I am joined today by Alex von Tonzelman, the historian, author and screenwriter, and by Robin Lustig, the journalist, broadcaster, former presenter of the World Tonight on Radio 4. Hello to you both.
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C
Hi, Andrew.
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B
Hello, Alex. First of all, I am incandescent with jealousy about the fact that you have recently done something I have not and been to Algeria, a place I have always fancied visiting, but whom I suspect would be somewhat parsimonious with the visas for people in my line of work.
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A
Yes, the visas generally are not the easiest to get. It's a sort of, it's a completely fascinating place. I'm sorry to rub it in, but I absolutely loved it. And yes, you sort of go there and I mean because of course, at the moment they're swimming in oil and gas money and people very cheerfully say to you, oh, it's so nice to have you here. Don't send anyone else. We don't really like tourists. We don't need any of that. We don't want people coming here and making vlogs in the casbah, you know, they're just not into it. They just seem enormously self confident and like they don't really want any of that nonsense.
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B
So given the lack, one suspects, of tourist infrastructure, souvenir shops, etc. What does one do in Algeria?
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A
Well, there are a few really wonderful museums which I loved. The Bardo and Antiquities Museum, Fine Arts, very good fine arts museum, very good collection of European art as well as Algerian and all sorts of museum of the Revolution, of course, which I found particularly interesting as a historian, historian and huge nerd. All sort of really fascinating stuff. And also it's just it's very, very beautiful city, Algiers, to walk around very, you know, sort of likable city. Again, just delightful people who being unused to tourists are sort of completely without the sort of usual chasing you around and asking for things and who just sort of address you as an equal, which I know sounds like it should be normal but kind of isn't. When you're a tourists from Europe, it's, it's really refreshing and rather lovely and just very, very beautiful.
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And I, I, I would absolutely love to go because as we have discussed before, one of the most interesting people I've ever interviewed was Sadi Yassef, the former Front Liberation Nationale commander who later more or less played himself in the film the Battle of Algiers. Extraordinary individual. And it was a peculiar afternoon we spent together in a hotel lobby in Paris, you know, with the conversation Robin being interpreted by receptionist. I'd press ganged into doing it when he decided he didn't speak English well enough, which obviously he did. But then people do that less exotically. Robin, you are, you are going to Wales. But to be clear to all our Welsh listeners, in my estimation, no less delightfully, absolutely not.
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No, I've decided I'm not going to get on an airplane at the moment.
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Like we're about to have a choice.
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C
Well, absolutely right. I don't know. I mean, you know, I spent most of my adult life traveling around the world and I love traveling, but at the moment, for me the world doesn't seem a particularly enticing prospect. So the United Kingdom, which I probably have spent less time in than I should have done, particularly as a tourist. Yes, I'm going to Wales, which I don't know that well. Lots of very ancient and historic castles, some good museums and art galleries. And if it doesn't rain every day, which can never be taken for granted in Wales, I expect to have a very good time.
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I do recommend Caerphilly. I have been to Caerphilly and I have seen the absolutely exemplary castle therein.
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C
The castle's castle, as they say.
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B
It's a belter. Also Tintern Abbey, which should also be on your list, which is a ruins ruin, if I recall. We will start in Germany, which is shortly to be depopulated to the tune of 5,000American soldiers who will be going elsewhere on the orders of their commander in chief, US President Donald Trump. The abrupt decision is widely believed not unrelated to Germany's refusal to participate in whatever the US believes itself to be doing in the Persian Gulf and or to the remote by German Chancellor Friedrich merz, that the US had been left humiliated by the endeavour. The US contingent in Germany, about 36,000 troops pending the drawdown, is its largest in any one country. In Europe. At least two senior Republicans, the respective chairs of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, have expressed disquiet. Unless the troops are in fact being deployed further east and closer to Russia. Spoiler. They're not. Alex, is this really as simple as just Donald Trump throwing a massive tantrum?
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Pretty much, yes. I would say, especially the abruptness of the announcement. It does feel like sort of flailing about and it also does feel, unfortunately, very much in the interests of Vladimir Putin, as many of these decisions do, not to kind of stoke too many conspiracy theories, but unfortunately it does tend rather that way, for whatever reason it's been made. And I do think, I mean, obviously we can, you know, it's not news to anyone in Europe paying the slightest attention that NATO is a bit wobbly at the moment and that the Americans have a perhaps, you know, sort of rather comme CI, comme SA commitment to the whole thing and that Trump is prepared to use that as a lever. I mean, that's been very apparent. So in a sense, this is just, you know, another of those things. But also I do think it's actually very serious. I think there is, you know, there's a lot of anxiety in Europe, I think probably quite rightly, about increasing Russian aggression. The point of having, you know, American troops there at this point has always been a sort of deterrent from that point of view. I know lots of European governments are now, you know, really taking it very seriously that Europe needs to be able to defend itself. And I'm glad they're doing that. But, you know, it will take time to get to the levels where that's sort of replacement level. And at the moment, I do think this is actually pretty unfortunate.
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It's not just about the deterrent effect of having US troops in Europe though. Robyn, is it, and I'm quoting at this point a fairly regular guest on IT programs, General Ben Hodges, former Commander, US Army Europe, who earlier today posted, and I quote, this short sighted decision will not hurt Germany, it only hurts us. It does nothing to protect our strategic interests overseas. We cannot defend America from Texas or Georgia or North Carolina. We need forward friends and forward access.
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C
Quite so. I mean, two things that struck me when I first heard about this. First of all, let's see, because sometimes Trump says something and it doesn't actually get translated into action. So let's watch and see actually how Many, if any, US Troops do leave Germany. Secondly, I was reminded of what somebody said when NATO was first established that its prime objectives were, one, to keep Russia out, two, to keep America in, and three, to keep Germany down.
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This was Lord Ismay, was it? The first Secretary General?
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I think, okay, there we are. But if indeed this tantrum, if that's what it is, of Donald Trump's, is translated into action, then, as Alex says, it's to Russia's advantage. It is certainly to Europe's disadvantage, and it's to America's disadvantage, because that presence in Germany acts as a sort of fulcrum for so much of its. Out of US activity in Africa, in the Middle east, even in Asia, intelligence gathering, forward lift infrastructure, heavy transport and all of that. And for NATO itself, if indeed there is to be a drawdown of American forces in Europe, that has an immense implication into what NATO will be able to do. If, for example, there is a substantial drawdown of US forces in Germany, how will that affect the security of the Baltic states? How will it affect Russia's calculations about the risk benefit ratio of moving west into territory which it has traditionally regarded as its own? The Cold War may be over, but we have President Putin in Moscow who has never made any secret of his expansionist ideals. So, yeah, it's potentially very dangerous.
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Further on that subject, Alex, I mean, British listeners may have seen you on British television in the last few weeks talking about a conflict 70 years ago, that is the one over the Suez Canal, which occurred because of various powers misinterpreting the. The intentions and likely future actions of each other. Does withdrawing even the perception of scaling back the deterrent enlarge the space in which a miscalculation could occur in Europe? That is, as Robin suggests, Vladimir Putin decides, aha, they're not serious after all. If not now, then when. And bites off a chunk of Estonia and Latvia and then discovers that actually quite a lot of Europe, and perhaps even America in extremists, is actually serious. At which point we have embarked upon a course that perhaps nobody really wanted.
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That's a long question to which I can answer. Yes, Yes, it does increase the risk of that, I think. And I think, I mean, obviously that sort of. You've laid out one plausible scenario with, I hope, the ending that would then happen, which is everybody taking that seriously and pushing back. But that bit is the bit I feel least certain about, because it is, you know, very, very dangerous and precarious. What Europe would decide to do, how much America would get involved. You, I Think all of those questions are quite moot, actually. I'm not completely confident of them. I wish I could be more confident. And as I say, that's not because I do think European governments are now, pretty much all now, especially now that we've had a change in Hungary, pretty serious about the threat from Putin and the need for kind of more European defence. I'm not trying to undermine that, but I don't think capacity is very high yet. So I think the question is what can be done and what is realistic. And we are not yet at the stage where there is a fine. If the US wants to leave NATO, big deal, we've got this.
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Well, sticking somewhat with that theme of Europe getting its act together or not. To Yerevan, which is hosting the eighth summit of the European Political Community, a forum established in response to Russia's full scale assault upon Ukraine in 2022. Among the more eye catching guests, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, whose warm welcome in another former Soviet republic can be assessed as yet another altogether unintended consequence of Russia's invasion of his country. And also Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney seek, as he said himself, to remake Canada's global network as long as its neighbour to the south remains in its present obstreperous mood. Robyn, we will get to Carney's decision to fly all that way shortly, but do we see here some intimation of what Europe, in fact getting its act together might actually look like?
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Yes, with the emphasis on the word might. It's early days, but I do think that there is now very serious thought being given to sort of reconstruct what used to be called the west and particularly a Western alliance without the full hearted participation of the United States. Now that's something that the French, for example, have been suggesting we needed for decades past. But I think now more and more people are beginning to think the same way. And yes, there are now very serious moves afoot by lots of European leaders to try to think of what their world, the European world, would look like without an American security guarantee, which you could be sure of, which after all is the meaning of the word guarantee. So, yeah, it's very interesting and potentially very significant.
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I mean, you did mention earlier, Alex, the fact that the interests of Putin and Trump often seem to overlap. But is there some consolation balancing against that in the spectacle of this summit? Because you can't imagine it's improved the mood of either of them.
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No. And this I think, you know, I'm sure they're watching this too I mean, although Trump obviously has his attention going in many, many directions at the moment. So, you know, I don't. Who can see inside that gentleman's mind? I don't know. But yeah, I mean, of course. And you know, obviously we know that a thing, a sort of constant source of anxiety for Putin is the idea of European unity and of things coming together. So I think it's quite possible that he will be pretty anxious about that, especially, you know, for the exact reasons you mentioned. The fact this is taking place in Armenia is certainly no comfort for from that point of view either. So, yes, it will be distressing for him in that sense. But on the other hand, at the moment, you know, he's got kind of, he's doing pretty well on the oil because of the absolute calamity that America has been presiding over in the Strait of Hormuz, a story that we don't even know where that really stands tonight. There's so much sort of confusing information coming out of it. And, you know, he's got a US President who, as you say, and I mean, I think, you know, as I say, I don't want to go down a conspiracy theory road with this. I think think Trump is making decisions for reasons Trump wants to rather than anything sort of more conspiratorial than that. But they do, as you say, quite often happen to align with things that would be quite nice for Putin. And this is one of those.
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Well, indeed, Mark Carney, Robyn, who, as we suggested, has traveled a long way to be at what is supposed to be a European thing. And he does not, of course, lead a European country, but nonetheless has said it is my, and I quote, it is my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe. Europe, of course, being somewhere that Carney does know well. He was formerly governor of the bank of England. Is he right about that? Or I suppose a better question, does he have to be right about that because no one else is going to do it?
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Well, that I think is the most interesting question because he seems since this year's Davos Conference to have emerged as the Western leader who says things about the United States which other Western think but don't want to say. And so I won't say he's now emerging as the leader of the west, but certainly he seems to be more prepared to go that extra step and say, we cannot carry on like this. We have to reinvent ourselves in a way which European leaders seem somewhat frightened to do. Just one counterfactual though, to Talking about how Mr. Putin might react to all these moves. If I was sitting in the Kremlin with his mindset, I would look at the domestic political scenario situation in France, for example, and the possibility of a much more Russia friendly, ethno nationalist government coming to power in France. I would also, to be honest, be looking at the United Kingdom, because there is a possibility that here too, within the next three to four years, there may be a more Putin friendly, ethno nationalist government in power and the whole balance of political thought in Western Europe could change quite significantly.
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I mean, there has been some, Alex, slightly wild talk that Canada could perhaps put itself forward for membership of the European Union. Canadians so far have suggested that they're not terrifically keen on that. But is it necessarily preposterous?
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I mean, you know, we live in a world where such extraordinary things are happening that, who knows, You've used the
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Erosion Song Contest as your template, couldn't you?
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Well, no, this is an argument against. Against it, Robyn, because anything that makes the Eurovision Song Contest even longer is something to be rejected at all costs.
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Surely something that everybody else at Monocle Radio, apart from Andrew Miller, would welcome. Broadly. But, yeah, I mean, look, I think there's obviously a case for closer cooperation, and that is very, very clear. And I agree with Robyn that it seems a very interesting thing that Carney is indeed able to. I think Carney has spotted quite early on that actually the thing to do with Trump is not GR and not try to sort of act as a supplicant to him because he doesn't respect that at all. You know, he'll sort of rage and, you know, if you sort of do insult him in the way Carney has. But there's also a level of respect afforded to that that there really isn't, to the kind of trying to sort of, you know, kiss his bottom that various other leaders have tried to do, which has gone very badly indeed, really, by and large. So I think that's sort of what's happened with him. And it does, you know, it certainly puts them in a strong position. So, I mean, I think my view is there's definitely a very strong case that I think is already happening for closer cooperation. Whether that results in Canada joining the eu, well, who can say?
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Well, to Oakland, California and the courthouse hosting a civil trial which will have many decent citizens believing it. A shame there can only be one loser Annoying billionaire and AI Huckster. Elon Musk of X and Grok is suing Annoying billionaire and AI Huckster Sam Altman of OpenAI and ChatGPT, the former claiming that the latter has violated the original mission of OpenAI, of which Musk was a co founder, by pursuing profits at the expense of safety. Listeners may write their own jokes about which kind of projectiles the residents of glass houses should not fling about with untoward abandon. Last week, Musk's learned friends suggested that AI unregulated could literally be the death of us all. So this seems like something we should get right. Alex, you may have to give this answer through gritted teeth. I'm aware of your views on at least one of these protagonists. Is there a case that Musk is actually the lesser villain in this particular contest?
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Well, gritting the teeth, I think that is generally pushing it overall. But in a sense, I think if anyone is sitting there believing that Musk is just doing this for the good of humanity and that he believes in the open intern, I think I have many bridges to sell you and so forth. And possibly an AI artificial general intelligence
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machine, ChatGPT would probably be quite happy to confirm that you do in fact own them.
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Really? Yes, indeed. While flattering me and possibly trying a romance scam around the side, it was very interesting to see Musk on the stand a few days ago. I thought he seemed very flustered, actually, and the OpenAI attorney really did quite a good job of getting under his skin. He seemed to me quite underprepared for this, sort of trying to wing it, as he seems to try to wing lots of things. And there were sort of some real bear traps set there. I mean, one that I enjoyed is that Musk had said, tesla is not pursuing AGI. It's literally just trying to make a car drive from A to B. And the opening attorney got out a tweet from Musk saying, Tesla will be one of the companies to make AGI and probably the first to make it. You know, so it's a direct. Just every single. It seems to be a lot of that. And he got very flustered and started saying, oh, you're asking not simple questions. They're designed to trick me. And all of this. And, you know, really started to seem quite flustered. It was pretty. I would say it was not a good day for Musk at all. We haven't had Altman on the stand yet, which of course we will. Who knows if that will go as badly. One hopes that he's seen that and will now think, crikey, I better do some homework.
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B
Because, Robyn, there are a number of quite profound questions opened up by this case, away from the slightly buffoonish characters at the heart of it. But is there an argument that if AI and I think this is still a big if, but if AI is anywhere near as powerful and transformative as its cheerleaders say it is or is going to be, is it going to be, by definition, too powerful to be allowed into private hands? Like, I cannot imagine, for example, the US government of the 1940s being entirely relaxed about the fact that an assortment of privateer billionaires were trying to build a nuclear weapon in various deserts in the continental United States.
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C
I mean, I fear that that horse has bolted. I mean, if one could turn the clock back. Yes, I think that would be a question absolutely, that one should ask. But it's too late, because the work has been done. AI is now the property of a number of unbelievably wealthy and unbelievably powerful corporations. And the fact that some of them seem to be rather apprehensive, let's put it no stronger than that, about the potential of what it is that they have unleashed should give us all pause for thought. But this particular case seems to me proof, if ever we needed it, that Elon Musk has no sense of humor. Because the idea that this man, reputed to be the wealthiest man in the world, bar none, should be going to court for the public good and in favor of non profit, it just should have us all rolling in the aisles. It is worrying. I think what we need to be looking at rather more than whether AI should be developed for profit is how it can be regulated and what the relationship should be between these hugely powerful and wealthy corporations and governments who do still have the power to restrict in some way what they do and for whom they do it.
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I mean, the ask a historian section, Alex. I mean, are these companies actually powerful and influential to a degree that we've never previously witnessed? Thinking about. I mean, at least one of your books would touch on the legacy of the East India Company, which was a private outfit which ran India for several decades. I mean, OpenAI is preparing for an IPO at a valuation of US$850 billion, which, and I looked this up, is slightly larger than the GDP of the Republic of Ireland.
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Yeah, I mean, they are tremendously powerful. But yes, of course, if you look back in history, they are. You know, there have been very, very powerful corporations before. I think if somebody's reading about the East India Company and thinking, gosh, how powerful are enormous? You know, keep reading, because that story does end a certain way. But actually what happened in the case of the East India Company, and I think what will prob. Happen, I hope what will happen in the case of AI was actually that the British government started to get more and more involved and did begin to regulate parts of. Still went to the great rebellion of 1857 and still went to a complete disaster, which they had to be, you know, got out of by the British government and then effectively nationalized. And, you know, I mean, who knows what will happen in terms of AI with that? But I do. We're already seeing, and I think probably a comparison I would draw is with something like the history of the motorcar, where, you know, you see it develop privately, hugely dangerous, starts killing lots of people, is very, very. And regulation comes in partly because of lawsuits against it. And that's already happening with, you know, with, with AI. We're seeing lawsuits from people who unfortunately, you know, horrible things have sort of happened and people have sort of killed themselves and all sorts of awful things have happened. In at least one case, someone's killed somebody else. You know, all of this possibly, we'll see what the courts say as a result of this sort of AI psychosis and things like this. And I think, I think that's the sort of thing where you will see the lawyers for those companies themselves saying, well, actually, hold on, we're going to have to put some safeguards in because otherwise we're going to be making some very big payouts. And even with our enormous valuations, that's not a thing you want. But I think the problem you have with government regulation is also that I think most governments and a lot of politicians don't actually understand this tech and they're sort of way behind it in those terms. And so playing catch up there is very, very difficult. Difficult. So that's a big challenge.
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B
I will just close this discussion with my own cautionary fable that last week, researching a thing, I did ask Chat GPT, can you just bang me out a point by point list of appointments held by the current Pope, and then had to spend 10 minutes arguing with ChatGPT over who the current Pope is.
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Right.
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It insisted that Francis was in fact still with us.
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Oh dear.
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There's some way to go.
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Yes, which. Which as I kept trying to explain to this thing before realizing, Andrew, what are you doing? You are arguing with a speak your weight machine about who the Pope is and gave up. But anyway, before we move on to our final item, we have a musical cue.
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You and me go fishing in the
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dark Lyin on our backs and Counting
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the stars where the cool grass grows.
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The Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, a congruent selection by today's producer, Chris Chermack. We go to Japan, however, which the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band were very famously not from, and an opening in the kind of job which will probably survive the AI apocalypse until, or unless someone, to be honest on form, very probably the Japanese builds robots which can do cormorant fishing. To be clear, this is not fishing for cormorants as such. Cormorants not being fish, but fishing with cormorants, that is employing trained birds to pluck fish from rivers. The tradition is reckoned to be at least 13 centuries old. And the central Japanese city of Inayama is now recruiting trainees for the first time in 34 years. Minutes. Minutes, I tell you, of desultory research, have failed to pin down details of salary or working hours. Robin, do you, do you fancy this? Would you be keen on having a lash at being a cormorant fisherperson?
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C
No, because I probably wouldn't be prepared to put in the training required, but I would quite like to watch it. It's sounds quite intriguing and unlike some other ancient customs which I was thinking of when I first read about this, fox hunting, for example, it doesn't seem to be hugely damaging to wildlife. Not very good for the fish, excuse me, presumably, whom the cormorants catch. But fish don't have wildlife.
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B
Anyway, I think it's probably pretty annoying for the cormorants who do catch the fish and are then not permitted to come keep them.
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C
Well, we don't know, do we? I mean, I, I, I, I haven't seen any cormorants asked about this, but, you know, my, my general view is that ancient customs, if they don't do harm to people or animals, then, yeah, let's try and keep them going.
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B
Alex, do, do you think you have any particular personal qualities that you, you could bring to bear on life as a, a trainee. Corporate cormorant. Corporate cormorant.
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Corporate cormorant.
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B
It's only, it's only Monday and I cannot pronounce three syl Cormorant fisher folk.
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A
Well, I, I mean, I do think this is sort of weirdly quite beautiful and like, Robin, I'm not sort of generally keen on anything that might come under the heading of blood sports. I think with this, though, this seems like a sort of, you know, given it's been going for 13 centuries, a sort of fairly sustainable or just not very efficient. It's just rubbish. Yeah. You know, it's not like a sort of trawler net kind of getting all the fish in one go, and seems really rather sort of elevated, elegant and beautiful. I'm sure the cormorants are compensated in some way. I mean, if you could have a
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lovely pet with some fish.
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A
Yeah, maybe they. Maybe they enjoy the hunt in the way that cats do or something like this. Who can say? I'm not familiar with any cormorants on a personal level, such as to have worked this out, but it does sound quite beautiful. It's the sort of thing, isn't it, that rather appeals to you in this world of, you know, God knows, AI taking all our jobs. He's saying all this thinking, oh, maybe I could just move to Japan and, you know, be nice to some birds and. And go out on a little boat, and it would be quite beautiful and very different form of life.
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B
Well, I did want to ask finally, each of you in turn, starting with you, Robin, have you at any point, for any reason, considered jacking it all in in order to take up some more rustic profession?
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C
The honest answer? Nah. I'm an urbanite born and bred. I do love spending time in the country communing with nature, but as an exception to the rule rather than the
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B
rule,
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C
I'm a city boy. Always have been, always will be. Alas.
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B
Yeah, and I have that. And also, Alex, I have absolutely no practical aptitude whatsoever. So such reveries as I may have along those lines myself tend to be cut off at that point by that inner voice reminding me, mate, anything more complicated than changing a light bulb, and you are stuffed.
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A
Well, I did see a rather wonderful documentary on the BBC recently about this Japanese father and son who absolutely painstakingly repair ancient pottery to the most beautiful degree possible. And, you know, of course I did. I'm constantly having fantasies, oh, wouldn't it be lovely to just go and do this job? It looks so beautiful when you're sort of mixing ancient pigments and, you know, matching clays and all sorts of things. God, how fabulous. But I'm afraid I probably have to be realistic that I'm far more like Robyn and also just quite like living in a city.
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B
And that also sounds like it requires both patience and dexterity, neither of which I possess in. In notable amounts.
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A
I fear perhaps we've all ended up where we should be.
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B
Well, on that sobering note, Alex von Tonman and Robin Lustig, thank you both for joining us. Finally, on today's show, what with one thing and another, traveling in Russia has become less convenient than it once was, perhaps especially for Europeans and certainly especially for journalists. Joe Luke Barnes new book is therefore especially remarkable and valuable for Farewell to Russia, A journey through the four former USSR. Joe travelled to all 15 former Soviet republics after one of them, Russia, attacked another Ukraine in February 2022. I spoke to Joe at Midori House earlier and began by asking how difficult the trip was to actually undertake.
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D
The real thorny one was Turkmenistan, unfairly I think known as Central Asia's North Korea. But that gives you an idea of the sort of vibe that we're looking at in Turkmenistan. But you had to go on a guide. We did tour that was the only way you were allowed into the country. So we did find our way off the leash a few times, especially in the evenings. It was slightly fortunate for us that our tour guide was quite ill, spent most of the time coughing and we said, oh well, we don't want to be too near you in case we get infected, so maybe we should go and see the city. One way to see Turkmenistan other than that, pretty much everywhere apart from Russia. For British citizen, I presume Australian citizens as well is visa free. There's e visas for Tajikistan and Azerbaijan. Obviously Ukraine doesn't have flights to get to Ukraine, but there are trains going in and out the country. I did the Ukrainian travels well I went three times since the full scale invasion and it was, yeah, it's felt, especially the last time that the drone attacks were making it a more difficult place to be and that's definitely got worse, especially this winter, which sounds like it's been horrendous. But other than that, direct flights to most of these places from, I mean
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B
what all these countries apart from Russia have in common of course, is the fact of having been until 30 odd years ago, dominated by Russia. Did you perceive much in the way of difference in how people felt about Russia now? Are there nuances in the relationships between Russia and its former empire?
- [32:15]
D
One thing that's definitely noticeable is a large generational difference. So you would notice that anyone who, who was over 60, they would have grown up and had at least some of their adult life in the USSR and may have considered themselves Soviets first and then Kazakh or Ukrainian or Georgian second. Whereas a younger generation have had no experience of that and have spent the last 30 years being told that the whole arc of history in their country was leading to national liberation. So they obviously have very different action attitude. You find that obviously people who come from less economically wealthy backgrounds tend to be sometimes be more pro Russian. So for Example in Central Asia, a lot of people will work in Russia as migrant laborers. On the other hand, in the cities the level of Russian language is higher. However, people tend to be more patriotic. It's a strange one. And at the moment, the further you go west, I would say as a general rule, the less pro Russian people would be.
- [33:21]
B
Well, this is what I was wondering because certainly in the last few years I think the people of these countries I've spoken to most have been people from the Baltic states, from Ukraine and from Moldova whose general attitudes to Russia listeners can take a wild guess at. But did you come away from these travels with a general sense though that. But Russia is kind of still the hindrance. It is the thing that is either actually holding these countries back or holding them down or at some level would like to.
- [33:51]
D
Good question. I'd say it's often said to be the hindrance. So it's an easy boogeyman sort of thing. But obviously there's reasons behind it in many cases. I'll give some examples. Georgia is probably one example. So Georgia descended into a terrible civil war plus separatist conflicts in the early 90s. Russia didn't necessarily start those conflicts, but it was very happy to jump on those conflicts and exacerbate them and use it as leverage over Georgia in the future. But Georgians will not look at that and say oh maybe we did something wrong, maybe we could self reflect. There are signs all over Tbilisi for example, which say 20% of our country is occupied by Russia, is in other countries, say Central Asia for example. When the war, the full scale invasion of Ukraine began, I remember talking to people in say Kazakhstan for example, which is the only Central Asian country which borders Russia. And there was very much a sense of oh, we could be next. Georgians told me the same other countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan had their own problems with each other. Again, Russia exacerbated these problems and sold weapons to both sides sides and would stymie peace talks or try to ensure that the peace talks involved Russian troops being placed in Nagorno Karabakh which was the disputed area and then in the Baltic states. I would say that it's long been the Baltic states main clarion call to Western Europe. They would be telling Western Europe you need to be watching out because Russia is coming. So they've have been constantly asking for more, more troops to be placed, more NATO troops to be placed in Estonia or Lithuania, for example. I'd say generally everyone is kind of looking over their shoulders apart from again Central Asia, which also has China. And that's becoming a huge influence at the moment.
- [35:49]
B
There is a lot going on in the book, obviously, as there would be in 15 countries, which we do not have time to discuss all of. But I can commend to our listeners that it does a very good job in particular of capturing the sombrero, somewhat bleary sense of humor that prevails in that part of the world. But there was one particular aspect which I did want to ask about because I kind of read it and thought, well, I'm glad it wasn't just me then. And this is about the driving habits of the former Soviet empire, because I think even in a life which has not been without its share of scrapes, the most frightened I have ever been was in the passenger seat of a car being driven along a mountain road between Zugdidi and Tbilisi in Georgia. Did you ever get to the bottom of why they insist on driving like that, as opposed to not in a manner which threatens life and limb?
- [36:36]
D
I think there's a supreme self confidence which is often unhelpful. I think added to that is a healthy dose of alcohol on many occasions. The quality of the roads don't help the fact that there is such a stark contrast between the horsepower of the cars. Now on the roads. You have some sort of 30 year old larder that's meant to be sharing a road with a Kamaz truck which might be 50 years old. And then you've got these really modern cars which will try to sweep past them and get very impatient when they're bogged down. I think it's a nasty combination. And then lastly in Georgia, for example, I would always notice that there are these beautiful monasteries sort of perched on the hill. And every time a Georgian driver would pass a monastery, he'd cross himself three times. So beholding the steering wheel would be one hand, the other hand crossing himself. I was like, if this leads to my death.
- [37:31]
B
That was Joe Luke Barnes. His new book, Farewell to Russia A Journey through the Former ussr, is out now. Very much recommended. And that is all for this edition of the Monocle Daily. Thanks to our panelists today, Alex von Tonzelman and Robin Lustig. Today's show was produced by Chris Chermak. Our sound engineer was Elliot Greenfield. I'm Andrew Muller here in London. The Daily is back at the same time tomorrow. Thanks for listening.
- [37:53]
A
Sa.