Asymmetric warfare from the Strait of Hormuz to Ukraine and Lebanon

Summary

The Monocle Daily – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Asymmetric warfare from the Strait of Hormuz to Ukraine and Lebanon
Date: May 5, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Isabel Hilton (founder, China Dialogue & visiting professor, King's College London), Somnath Batabail (lecturer, SOAS)
Special Contributor: Joe da Silva (ARUP)

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Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the latest developments in global asymmetric warfare, from the strategic flashpoints of the Strait of Hormuz to evolving battlefields in Ukraine and Lebanon. The panel explores the real-time impact of conflict on global energy supplies, especially across Asia, the role of drones in reshaping military tactics, shifting political landscapes in India, South Korea’s credit card experiment for children, and an inspiring look at regenerative design. The discussion is rich with regional insight, memorable anecdotes, and pointed critique of policy decisions at home and abroad.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz: Energy, Conflict, and Consequences

Main Segment: 03:36–12:00

• US-Iran Tensions and Oil Supply Disruptions:

  • Ongoing military actions and missile/drone attacks threaten the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil supply flows.
  • Recent attacks include Iranian missiles targeting UAE infrastructure and successful transit by US ships amid chaos [03:36].

• Asian Energy Vulnerability:

  • Somnath Batabail: Highlights how Asian economies, especially India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are exposed to severe supply shocks.

    “Asia is feeling the supply shock... India, most of the elections are over. Prices will now shoot up. Sri Lanka, we know what happened a few years back when there was oil scarcity. Pakistan doesn’t have cash reserves… Bangladesh… things can go wrong very quickly… just a powder keg and something might erupt.” (04:28)

  • India’s relative resilience is contrasted with its neighbors, whose economies and social stability are more fragile.

• China’s Strategic Hedging:

  • Isabel Hilton: Outlines how China, the world’s largest oil importer, is “hedged” with reserves, alternative supply routes (pipelines, LNG), and massive renewable capacity, but ultimately is “not immune” if this drags on and the global economy suffers.

    "China has options... It has pipeline supplies from Russia and Central Asia... largest installed capacity for renewable energy... But you're right, nobody is going to be immune in the long run." (05:37)

• Ripple Effects on Vulnerable Populations:

  • Supply shocks are already hurting small businesses and ordinary citizens:

    "Shops manufacturing [glass] have shut down at home. My mother says LPG gas prices have doubled." (Somnath Batabail, 07:41)

• Assigning Blame:

  • Isabel Hilton: Predicts most governments will blame the US for missteps in policy and military action (not just Iran), viewing the Washington administration as the primary destabilizing actor.

    “I think most of them would point to the United States... the rogue factor here is the behaviour of the US Administration... absolutely bungling the conduct of the kinetic phase and now bungling the negotiated phase.” (09:13)

• Wars Without End:

  • Andrew Muller: Suggests that conflicts may continue simply to justify their own existence, not for the reasons they started.

    “...the reason for the war to continue becomes not so much the reason the war started as a desperate attempt to make it look like starting it wasn’t a terrible idea in the first place?” (10:03)

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2. The Changing Nature of Warfare: Drones and Asymmetry

Main Segment: 10:57–16:59

• Technological Upheaval:

  • Isabel Hilton: Emphasizes how drones have created a “huge” shift in warfare, making older equipment and doctrines obsolete.

    “Oh, it’s huge… you’re looking at a replacement timetable of five years even if you double production... Also, they were firing... Patriot missiles, several million each against drones, few 10,000, if that’s the most expensive end.” (12:01)

  • China is watching and learning by supplying drones to both sides in Ukraine, getting valuable data.

• New Game for Traditional Militaries:

  • Drones allow nimble, cheaper, asymmetric tactics that can neutralize “mass” militaries.

    “A thousand dollar drone can suddenly do damage and it’s a draining of continuous resources.” (Somnath, 13:51)

  • Iran’s loitering munitions are running a “low cost cheap war” strategy against big-spending America.

• Historical Parallels:

  • Somnath draws analogies to history: small, mobile forces defeating larger “mass” armies, e.g. Alexander’s horsemen vs. Indian elephants, Shivaji vs. Akbar.

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3. Military Command and Political Purges

Main Segment: 15:10–18:40

• China:

  • Ongoing “purging of Chinese military high command” seems about Xi Jinping demanding “absolute loyalty” and possibly corruption, with overall loss of experience among leaders.

    “Central Military Commission... now essentially consists of Xi Jinping and a friend recently appointed.” (15:41)

• United States:

  • Mirrored by ideological purges in the US military, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth sacking dozens of generals, disproportionately minorities and women.

    “...of the generals that Pete Hegseth has sacked, 60% of them were black or female.” (16:59)

  • The panel suggests this undermines competence in favor of loyalty, and creates instability at the highest levels of military command.

• Dangerous Parallels and Escalation Risks:

  • The “echo” of authoritarian tendencies in both Beijing and Washington is ominous.
  • Isabel echoes fears about unchecked nuclear escalation:

    “...the last time there was a fear that a president would use nuclear weapons... there were adults in the room... but now... Well. Enjoy the weekend, everyone.” (19:30)

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4. Indian Politics: BJP's Landslide in West Bengal

Main Segment: 20:02–26:10

• Stunning Victory for Modi’s BJP:

  • The BJP secured a decisive win in West Bengal, previously a stronghold of the left and regional parties—a historic milestone in Indian politics.
  • Somnath Batabail:

    “He [Modi] and the Home Minister put everything they had... Nine million [minority area] voters were delisted...” (21:13) “It’s a dark day for democracy. I just wrote to my mother if you kind of manage this otherwise I’m never coming back. And she said I’m still here, do come.” (Somnath, 23:17)

  • The victory is attributed to aggressive revision of voter rolls, especially in areas unfavorable to the BJP.

• Israel Hilton:

  • Draws a parallel to other global trends—rise of hard-right politics, anti-minority policies, and failing oppositions.

    “There are trends in common elsewhere... this hard line kind of anti minority approach we see everywhere from the United States to Europe...” (23:44)

• Cultural and Political Shift in Bengal:

  • Historically, Bengal saw itself as culturally distinct and politically to the left. Its shift mirrors a nationwide swing toward the BJP.

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5. South Korea: Credit Cards for Kids?

Main Segment: 26:10–31:39

• Policy Overview:

  • South Korea’s government now legally permits credit cards for children aged 12+, with parental consent.
  • The policy aims to boost financial literacy, but the panel’s tone is wryly skeptical.

    “I can’t think what the problem is here. Of course. Give a 12 year old a credit card. Why not?” (Isabel Hilton, 27:20)

• Family Perspective:

  • Somnath: Shares how, for his own 12-year-old, using a controlled card is safer than cash while traveling, and can teach responsibility.

    “At least I don’t say this for everyone, but my son has been quite prudent at knowing that if I do this once, it’s killing the golden goose.” (Somnath, 28:39)

• Financial Literacy Debate:

  • Isabel: Supports teaching financial basics early, but warns about the risks when credit is confused with prepaid limits.

    “...Credit cards are different from prepaid cards. Even without a Bugatti, you could be in for a lot more than you intend.” (29:32)

  • Somnath notes that kids may not distinguish between debit and credit cards: "He knows that if I tap it, it works or it doesn't work." (30:34)

• Memorable Moment:

  • Andrew jokes: “Can you imagine what the 12 year old yourself would have done if someone had just said, here's a credit card?”
    Isabel: “Whoopee.” (31:47)

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6. Rethinking Design for the Climate Crisis

Interview with Joe da Silva (ARUP) on Regenerative Design
Segment: 31:50–38:10

• Beyond Sustainability:

  • Regenerative design aims not just to “do less harm,” but to “heal the damage” done to the planet:

    “Sustainability has been really important, but it’s basically based on the principle of doing less harm. Regenerative design... recognizes we also need to heal the damage that's been done to date.” (Joe da Silva, 32:30)

• Systems Thinking:

  • Systemic design looks at broad flows—of material, water, information, and people—integrating the needs and knowledge of end users, including vulnerable communities.

    “Nothing exists in isolation. Everything is connected to everything else... enables us to design in a different way.” (33:54)

• Learning from Nature & History:

  “When I was born... there were less than half as many people on the planet. We were in balance... now we use more than 1.7 planets a year... in my lifetime.” (35:41)

• Case Study & Hope:

  • The “sponge cities” concept (adopted in China) is highlighted as a practical, hopeful example of resilience and system thinking.

    “He said, it’s ridiculous to put rivers and cities in concrete culverts... instead... nurture wetlands... absorb water... that’s how we’re going to reduce flood risk. These are the things that need to be amplified.” (Joe da Silva, 36:47)

• Renewables and Future Security:

  • Advocates using the oil crisis as a catalyst for investing in local, renewable energy sources.

    “Solar energy and wind energy is cheaper now than any fossil fuels... future energy security comes from investing in renewables and local energy sources at home.” (37:55)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Asia’s Energy Shock:

  “There is this kind of powder keg and something might just erupt suddenly and we won’t be able to control it.” (Somnath, 04:33)

• On Blame in Crisis:

  “Most of the Gulf states, I would think are going to be looking pretty sideways at the United States because they’re really hurting.” (Isabel, 09:13)

• On Modern Warfare:

  “A thousand dollar drone can suddenly do damage and it’s a draining of continuous resources.” (Somnath, 13:51) “Big armies being felt by very small incidents, by very agile mobile armies.” (Somnath, 14:04)

• On Leadership Purges:

  “Central Military Commission... now essentially consists of Xi Jinping and a friend recently appointed.” (Isabel, 15:41) “There is palpable fear. The appointment between Pete Hegseth and the underside of a bus is one of life's great inevitabilities.” (Andrew, 18:02)

• On Indian Democracy:

  “India is the largest democracy in the world... It’s the biggest malfunctioning democracy in the world.” (Somnath, 23:28) “It’s a Lazarus like political revival.” (Isabel, 23:44)

• On Kids and Credit Cards:

  “Give a 12 year old a credit card. Why not?” (Isabel, 27:20) “Can you imagine what the 12 year old yourself would have done if someone had just said, here’s a credit card?” – “Whoopee.” (Andrew & Isabel, 31:47)

• On Hope for the Future:

  “I describe myself as a possibilist, which is someone who imagines a better future and then works really hard to get there.” (Joe da Silva, 36:47) “It’s ridiculous to worry about the oil and gas industry drying up because of the situation in the Middle East. What we need to be doing is using this opportunity... local energy sources at home.” (Joe, 37:55)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Strait of Hormuz, Oil Shocks: 03:36–10:57
• Drones & Changing Warfare: 10:57–16:59
• Military Command & Political Purges: 15:10–18:40
• Indian Elections and BJP's Victory: 20:02–26:10
• Credit Cards for Kids in Korea: 26:10–31:39
• Regenerative Design with Joe da Silva: 31:50–38:10

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Tone & Style

The discussion is fast-paced, witty, and deeply informed, with a good balance of analysis, historical context, and humor (see the banter on cricket and pocket-money for 12-year-olds). The panelists are candid and occasionally caustic in their assessments of world leaders and systemic failures, yet the show ends on a forward-looking and solution-oriented note with Joe da Silva’s “possibilist” optimism.

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For listeners: This episode offers a brisk, incisive tour of global upheaval, shifting alliances, everyday consequences, and resilient new ideas in design and policy—a must-listen for anyone navigating today’s constantly changing world.

Transcript

[Isabel Hilton]

You're listening to the Monocle Daily, first broadcast on the 5th of May, 2026 on Monocle Radio.

[Andrew Muller]

How much longer can Asian energy reserves outlast the war which may or may not be happening in the Strait of Hormuz? Do we entirely yet understand what drones are doing and are going to do to warfare? And is there a case for issuing credit cards to children? I'm Andrew Muller. The Monocle Daily starts now.

[Somnath Batabail]

FOREIGN.

[Andrew Muller]

Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily. Coming to you from our studios here at Midori House in London. I'm Andrew Muller. My guests Somnath Batabhael and Isabel Hilton will discuss the day's big stories and we'll hear from designers working to adjust to the climate crisis. Stay tuned. All that and more coming up right here on the Monocle Daily.

[Joe da Silva]

FOREIGN.

[Andrew Muller]

This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Andrew Muller and I am joined today by Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue and visiting professor at King's College London. And by Somnath Batabail, lecturer in Media in Development and International Journalism at soas. Hello to you both. Hello, Somnath, first of all, you have recently been in Antigua where cricket related things occurred. Please be quick as we're already losing. Isabel,

[Somnath Batabail]

I faced some very quick bowling. I turned up at the nets, my son was playing cricket there. I turned up at the nets and found a man called Alzheime Joseph who had the best debut in the ipl. Sorry, Isabel. And I faced him. He bowled a few 90 miles per hour and it's terrifying, I would think.

[Andrew Muller]

I mean, the IPL, with all due respect to him, is obviously not actually

[Somnath Batabail]

cricket, but he has been playing West

[Andrew Muller]

Indies too well, proper cricket, but nonetheless, 90 miles an hour must be quite something to see from the results receiving end. Although the follow up question, did you in fact see any of it?

[Somnath Batabail]

I wafted my bat around but I didn't touch it yet.

[Andrew Muller]

Yeah, I've done much the same, much slower bowling myself. That is quite something. But that aside, would you recommend Antigua as a place to visit?

[Somnath Batabail]

Oh My God, yes. 100,000 people, one country, 365 beaches and very good food and lovely, lovely folks. Yes.

[Andrew Muller]

Okay. Well, a big hello to all our many listeners in Antigua. Isabelle, by way of seamless pivot, you are not going to Antigua, but you are going to some of the, several of the countries in the world which are not in fact Antigua.

[Isabel Hilton]

Well, yes, indeed.

[Andrew Muller]

You can't just, you can't just write this stuff.

[Isabel Hilton]

Yes, I'm, yeah. Upcoming trips to, to the United States to New York in particular, but and then other bits of the east coast and then to China. So I'm covering the geopolitical rivalries. In all, in one month in New

[Andrew Muller]

York, you will be, as I understand it, bunging some sort of gong to someone who has been on this program talking for which he is being embawbled,

[Isabel Hilton]

which speaks well for both of you, if I may say. Yes, it's the Asia Society, New York's nonfiction prize, and it's going to Barbara Demick for a rather wonderful book about Chinese twins who were separated because of the cruelties and vagaries and corruption of the one child policy. She covered it when she was a correspondent in China and the story came to find her again many, many years. I warmly recommend the book.

[Andrew Muller]

As do I. It is a terrific book and I warmly recommend the interview we did with her, which listeners can doubtless find on our website somewhere. We will begin tonight in the Strait of Hormuz, where despite a certain amount of argy bargie since yesterday's launch by the United States of Project Freedom, we are encouraged to believe by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth that the ceasefire is not over. This is an assessment of events which may presently be arching eyebrows in the United Arab Emirates, the Defence Ministry of which yesterday counted 15 incoming Iranian missiles and four drones with further attacks reported today, A large fire is reported at the Fajira oil refinery. Two US commercial ships have, however, managed to transit the Strait. Somnath, do we have any idea what is actually going on here as such?

[Somnath Batabail]

One thing I can say for sure is that Asia is feeling the supply shock.

[Andrew Muller]

It will be terribly.

[Somnath Batabail]

And if we, I mean, just let's break it down into a few countries instead of saying Asia, India, most of the elections are over. Prices will now shoot up. Sri Lanka, we know what happened a few years back when there was oil scarcity. Pakistan doesn't have cash reserves as much as perhaps India might have. Bangladesh, new government, their honeymoon period is very short. Things can go wrong very quickly. So there is this kind of like a powder keg and something might just erupt suddenly and we won't be able to control it. So in one sense, Europe is feeling the price shock while the supply shock is in India.

[Andrew Muller]

There's a couple of things that I do want to pick up on, but Isabel, first of all, China, as we have discussed before, has seen this and other things coming and does have substantial reserves, but they won't last forever. China is the world's biggest oil importer. How far off some Sort of fairly brisk reckoning for China if this keeps up.

[Isabel Hilton]

Well we're still a couple of months away. I mean they did have reserves and actually they haven't been drawing them down too much because you know when this all began there were a lot of ships on the water as they say. So a lot of countries haven't felt the shock because those ships have turned up and delivered their cargo. So the interruption, those are kind of, you know, slow motion effect on the interruption in supply which will now begin to hit. So we're about to see the shock to. Well yes to China but I think to other more vulnerable countries with needs and smaller reserves. China has options. It has pipeline supplies from Russia and from Central Asia and it has, it has LNG coming down from the Arctic. China has been looking at avoiding choke points because it has a good sense of geography and is dependent but also it has the largest installed capacity for renewable energy. So there are lots of ways China is hedged. But you're right, I mean nobody is going to be immune to this in the long run. And maybe one of the ways that China is going to hurt is the hit to the global economy because China depends on exports and that's bad for business.

[Andrew Muller]

Somnath, I want to come back to the point you were making about the possibility of some sort of eruption. Asia takes 85% of the Gulf crude which transits via the Strait of Hormuz. In some of those countries, three alone that you mentioned, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh. We are talking about hundreds of millions of people who do not have substantial savings or indeed any countless millions of businesses which operate from one day to the next and are obviously reliant on energy supplies keeping coming. How rickety could this get again if this drags on for weeks or months to come?

[Somnath Batabail]

Few examples, you know an ancient town called Firozabad where glass is manufactured.

[Isabel Hilton]

Right.

[Somnath Batabail]

And this has been for centuries. Suddenly because of this crisis shops manufacturing has shut down at home. My mother says LPG gas prices have gone doubled.

[Andrew Muller]

That's going to put a big dent in people.

[Somnath Batabail]

And this is at the point where the government is still subsidizing now that the main elections in India by elections are over, the subsidies will stop. And this is an India which is perhaps more economically resilient than say Pakistan or Bangladesh. Bangladesh, there's a serious crisis brewing because it's a fairly new government has very little room for maneuver. The opposition party Awami League has been banned. The situations are kind of quite dicey. Sri Lanka again, the recent history has been very Unkind to Sri Lanka. So again, there's oil crisis there might have another problem coming in. So they're just flashpoints. You don't know what will exactly happen. One thing goes wrong and it just might erupt.

[Andrew Muller]

I mean, if some sort of crunch does come, Isabel, are the people in those countries and the governments of those countries likely are to blame the United States or Iran?

[Isabel Hilton]

Well, when these crises happen, people tend to blame their own government first and then.

[Andrew Muller]

But those governments will attempt to pass the blame. They will, of course, and not unfairly.

[Isabel Hilton]

And I think most of them would point to the United States. After all, Iran, you know, Iran is Iran and has been, you know, much the same country for 20 years, 30 years. The rogue factor here is the behavior of the US Administration, first in canceling a nuclear deal which was negotiated, which did have some safeguards built in, and then in absolutely bungling the conduct of the, of the kinetic phase and now bungling the negotiated phase. So I think certainly if you were to ask Pakistan on the quiet, they would roll their eyes and say we're doing our best. But, you know, Washington's impossible. And most of the Gulf states, I would think are going to be looking pretty sideways at the United States because they're really hurting.

[Andrew Muller]

Just finally on this one. Somnath, back to the conflict itself. Have we reached that point that we occasionally do in conflict where the reason for the war to continue becomes not so much the reason the war started as a desperate attempt to make it look like starting it wasn't a terrible idea in the first place?

[Somnath Batabail]

You know, I'm finding this very strange that even today when Pete Hexseth was speaking, he is talking about the court still holds. While the Iranian negotiator is saying we haven't started yet, and I'm suddenly finding things change. A month ago you were blowing a country back to 6,000 years, blowing it away, and now suddenly Washington, at least the last couple of weeks, seems to be wanting to calm it down. Well, Iran is happy to keep going on.

[Andrew Muller]

Well, indeed so. And in related developments, the United States is not presently alone in learning all over again two time worn truism of military endeavour. One, that it is a stretch easier to start wars than stop them. Two, that militaries tend to find themselves trying to fight the previous war. On the latter count especially, some are adapting better than others to a modern battle space increasingly dominated by drones on sea and land as well as in the air. While Ukraine, for example, has adapted with alacrity, Russia remains heavily reliant on Tactics that brighter commanders were starting to wonder about circa the battle of Tannenberg. Israel, which has previously leveraged modern tech to strike block against Hezbollah via exploding pages, now finds itself somewhat beset by Hezbollah's own fiber optic drones which emit no electronic signature and cannot therefore be traced or jammed. Isabelle, I realise that this is a bit of a how long is a piece of string question or perhaps a how long is a piece of fiber optic cable question, but how big an upheaval in warfare are we presently witnessing?

[Isabel Hilton]

Oh, it's huge. I mean if you, if you look at the munitions that the United States has, has blown the United States and its allies and the you're looking at a replacement timetable of five years even if you double production, if you can get hold of the rather sensitive materials that China now monopolizes. And China introduced export restrictions a year ago on dual use for rare earths and critical minerals. So how that's going to play out is a bit of a mystery. But also they were firing or Patriot missiles, they were using Patriot missiles, several million each against again drones, few 10,000, you know, if that's the most expensive end. So you've got a battlefield which is proving, you know, you have an asymmetric warfare not only in terms of personnel and resources but in terms of technology. And it's very, very interesting. The Chinese are watching it extraordinarily closely because they have a privileged vantage point. They have a privileged vantage point in Ukraine because they supply drones to both sides and are able to monitor and get all the feedback they need. And pretty much the same in Iran. So although this is a kind of secondhand experience, it is a very steep learning about modern battlefields which I'm not sure that the US is taking on board with quite the same attention.

[Andrew Muller]

Is it going to be difficult Somnath, for those very equipment and manpower heavy militaries across Asia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh to adapt to this because these are, are militaries which have historically committed to. Well, I guess the somewhat Russian idea of mass.

[Somnath Batabail]

Yeah, this is completely a new game. As you were saying Isabel, a thousand dollar drone can suddenly do damage and it's a draining of continuous resources.

[Andrew Muller]

Yeah. Even if the thousand dollar drone doesn't hit its target, you have to fire a million dollar missile at it.

[Somnath Batabail]

Exactly. To intercept it.

[Andrew Muller]

You're still in front.

[Somnath Batabail]

And this is what Iran is at the moment doing, that it can run a low cost cheap war while knowing that America can't withstand that pain. I mean India, Pakistan will be also like China looking very closely at what's going on. But, you know, I was throughout, I was thinking of epics and stories and wars. And we have heard this so many times. Big armies being felt by very small incidents, by very agile mobile armies. One example was in India. When Alexander comes down, Borus, the huge emperor, is felled because he comes with elephants, they come with horses. You know, the great Akbar is felled by Shivaji because Shivaji moves on feet, right? So warfare has stayed. I mean, this is a. Whatever else this moment will bring, and there'll be many impacts. Modern warfare was definitely going to change, and big countries like China and America will have to rethink how and where they spend their money.

[Andrew Muller]

Is that rethinking, Isabel? And this is where we ask you to explain what on earth is going on within Chinese high command, which, I mean, is kind of fun for everybody, because your guess is at least as good as anybody else's, because nobody knows really. But there has been this, this ongoing purging of Chinese military high command. Several distinguished looking careers have ended rather abruptly. Is that related to this or to something else? As far as anybody knows, it predates this.

[Isabel Hilton]

And I mean, well, the last rather surprising purge was, you know, the Central Military Commission, which now essentially consists of Xi Jinping and a friend recently appointed. And all the experienced high command have gone. This appears really to be about Xi Jinping's need for absolute loyalty and possibly about corruption. And I have to say, in some respects, something rather similar has been going on in the United States where, you know, 50 generals have been sacked by Pete Hexseth. Many of those were sacked because they were women or not white. That wasn't clearly the Chinese problem, but the need for absolute loyalty and the loss of experience, they are kind of common factors. And that is about, I think, authoritarianism and notions of supreme leadership over competence. So I think there is a curious echo going on between Washington and China on that. But I think that in terms of structural issues and the shift in attention or the shift in methodology of the modern battlefield, it's not quite that in China.

[Andrew Muller]

Somnath Isabel correctly notes that there does appear to be a parallel process occurring in the United States. And yes, of the generals that Pete Hegseth has sacked, 60% of them were black or female. And also Army Chief of Staff General Randy George appears to have been binned for refusing to strike two black men and two women from a list of imminent promotions. Is there any imaginable explanation for this other than what appears the obvious?

[Somnath Batabail]

Well, there's no Clear performance based explanations have been given. It definitely appears ideological. I mean, as you said, 20 generals,

[Andrew Muller]

ideological's charitable, but do go on.

[Somnath Batabail]

I mean ideological from that point of view. But 20 generals since 2025, that's a huge number. The U.S. army Chief of staff, Air Force Vice Chief, the Navy's top officer, and Pete Hexad being the man. But, but one of the things which is, as you read, you see that there is also fear in Pete Hegseth that he might be the one next to go.

[Andrew Muller]

Oh no, there is palpable fear. The appointment between Pete Hegseth and the underside of a bus is one of life's great inevitabilities. It is just a question of when, Isabel, is there, though potentially a difference in that it is imaginable, or I think at least more imaginable in the context of the United States than the sunderings between the Secretary of Defense and his generals have occurred when generals have said to him, Mr. Secretary, this is a completely terrible idea and you have simply no idea what you're doing. Which I'm going to go ahead and guess is somewhat less likely in the Chinese system.

[Isabel Hilton]

I think less likely in the Chinese system. It's really in the Chinese system more about structural loyalty to the party, I think, and indeed to the person of Xi Jinping and his consolidation of power. Clearly there is a situation in Washington which is being massively incompetently handled. And I'm sure that senior generals would have said cough, cough, excuse me, are you sure? And that's probably it. But you know, the more Hegseth digs himself into a hole, the harder it is to climb out. And you can't continue with this because you just don't have the material. So at some point they are going to have to start talking, unless Trump's late night musings on eliminating Iran off the map, which is the most terrifying thing because it does bring to mind the fact that the United States is a massive nuclear power and that the last time there was a fear that a president would use nuclear weapons, which was the Richard Nixon era, there were adults in the room who made sure that were such an order to be issued, it wouldn't be carried out without going through very senior people and wouldn't be carried out. But. But now it takes us so well. Enjoy the weekend, everyone.

[Andrew Muller]

On that happy thought to India, where following the general election of 2024, excitable observers began drafting political obituaries of long serving Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his Bharatya Janata Party Got its chain pretty briskly yanked. However, writing Modi off has proved a bad bet many times before. It would appear greatly to the vexation of his opponents to be the case again. The result of the recent state election in West Bengal, a part of India hitherto resistant to Modi was a thumping victory for the BJP and an end to 15 years of state government by the Trinamool Congress under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. She will be succeeded by the BJP Suvendu Adhikari who takes charge of a state which, and I just always love the numbers where India is concerned takes charge of a state which were it a separate country would be Earth's 17th biggest by population though it is only the 4th biggest Indian by population. The mind always ends up boggling Somnath when you contemplate these things. But let's look at this mind boggling result. How big a deal is this in the context of Indian politics? Like did even Narendra Modi think he was going to win in West Bengal?

[Somnath Batabail]

He was determined to win. He and the Home Minister put everything they had. The CADA system, money, the election commission, the entire center's power came down on Bengal. Mamata Banerjee who lost was a fighter. She fought till the end but it was overwhelming and especially the SIR the revision of voter rolls which 9 million voters were delisted and this was carried out in a matter of months. Everyone had to go and prove there and this was especially focused on Muslim areas, minority areas where the BJP were particularly weak. And strangely in those provinces the numbers of people taken out were kind of in proportion to the numbers BJP won by and the numbers are now out. So it's not even. I'm not kind of calculating anymore this is what the facts are. So what does it say? I mean Bengal was one of the last bastions. The left in Kerala have fallen in other ways. So the kind of anti minority hard right has kind of taken over India and institutions and a couple of states which were flailing around even they have now fallen. So it's a dark day for democracy. I'm saddened really. I just wrote to my mother if you kind of manage this otherwise I'm never coming back. And she said I'm still here, do come. But no, I mean though the left wing press tried to kind of say that there was hope. It seemed last two, three months that you couldn't fight the BJP monetarily and, and the way they had co opted the institutions there was no way

[Joe da Silva]

a

[Somnath Batabail]

free and fair election could have taken place. So India is the largest democracy in the world. It's also one of the. It's the biggest malfunctioning democracy in the world.

[Andrew Muller]

Isabel, there was, as I was suggesting, a bit of chat a couple of years ago to the effect that Modi was now a diminished figure on the way out, Twilight of Korea, et cetera. Does this suggest that he is perhaps less diminished than many may have preferred?

[Isabel Hilton]

Well, I think it certainly does. I mean it's a Lazarus like political revival. But I'm also struck that, you know, that India is obviously very much a world unto itself. But there are trends in common with elsewhere. You know, this hard line kind of anti minority kind of approach which we see everywhere from the United States to Europe and the kind of underperformance of traditional oppositions. You know, the Congress party has been very, very feeble for quite some time. You know, again sort of knocked off its perch and taking a long time to reconstitute itself and become a credible opposition, very much as the Democrats have. So there is a kind of deeper trend in politics from which India doesn't seem to be entirely immune.

[Andrew Muller]

But before this at least Somnath and I'm just thinking of my own very limited experience of this part of India, but it was my sense from spending some time in West Beng, Italy a long time ago that it's that part of India, much like, I don't know, Texas in the United States that sees itself as somewhat apart and somewhat distinctive with a sort of perhaps slightly richer regional character than less fortunate citizens of other states. How different has it been politically?

[Somnath Batabail]

Very different. The idea that a this kind of Hindi belt, that's how we look at them, the Hindi belt party can win in Bengal was unthinkable even 15 years back. Bengal till then had been under a left rule for about 37 years. And then Banerjee was though she was center right, she still was the Calcutta's girl. So the fact that Amit Shah and Modi they could come in and to be fair to them, urban voters have voted in very large numbers for the bjp. Right. So in Calcutta especially and voter lists were not that consequential there. So there is a definite shift and anti incumbency maybe yes. But also there's a definite shift in voter mood and Bengal is now following the rest of India sadly.

[Andrew Muller]

Well finally on today's show, I notice here in the script that producer Chris Chermac has queued up another one of his musical introductory interludes. Notorious BIG for reasons which will shortly become transparent, we Go to South Korea, the government of which appears to be operating on a general philosophy of sure, why not? Little else appears to explain a decision to permit the issue of credit cards to children age 12 and up. Although given that parental consent will be required, it would be genuinely surprising if the number of Korean teenagers who actually end up with a credit card is any higher than zero. The idea is to enlarge financial literacy among the young, though hat off to the Korea Times sub editor who composed the splendidly dead headline, parents sceptical about government decision to allow credit cards for minors. See also porcelain shop proprietors wary of proposals to admit wild bulls. Isabelle, what could possibly go wrong?

[Isabel Hilton]

I can't think what the problem is here. Of course. Give a 12 year old a credit card. Why not? Phew. What sort of financial literacy are we looking at here? It may be the lesson that if you don't earn it, you don't get it.

[Andrew Muller]

Yeah, possibly. A lot of lessons learnt the hard way, I suspect. Somnath, would you be reassured by the fact that there will be limits, depending on parental tolerance of 100,000 to 500,000 won per month? That's about 50 quid to 250 quid.

[Somnath Batabail]

Yeah, I would be. I'll tell you why, because I can see the skepticism. I have a 12 year old, so

[Andrew Muller]

you're an ideal test case.

[Somnath Batabail]

Yeah. But we do give him when he travels alone nowadays, he goes for his cricket tournaments to Dubai and other travels. So we have to give him a. And he has learned to use it rationally. And the point being also that we can assign him particular amounts for particular things he can call. So there is a bit of. I know this is. Capitalism has won again and I understand that.

[Andrew Muller]

And presumably you get alerts on your phone. You can see every time. You can see if he's gone to Dubai and bought a Bugatti.

[Somnath Batabail]

I think my card would never allow anything like that.

[Isabel Hilton]

Credit limit would be so, you know,

[Somnath Batabail]

I mean, so I. I can see why it would be convenient. Safer at times because kids are not carrying cash, they're being sent. And I have found. At least I don't say this for everyone, but my son has been quite prudent at knowing that if I do this once, it's killing the golden goose. So he's managed to stay within limits.

[Andrew Muller]

Okay, well that's. But that does bring us to the serious point here, Isabel, which is there a case on the financial literacy front? Or at least is there a case that is something that should be better taught much, much earlier than it Is because this is a complaint I have heard among people of my own cohort, and indeed of subsequent generations, that you sort of spend all this time at school and then get kicked out into the world where all of this stuff suddenly becomes incredibly important and no one's really spent so much as 10 minutes telling you how any of it works.

[Isabel Hilton]

Well, you know, there are ways to encourage your children to be responsible spenders. And one is that, you know, there are cards where you put a prepaid amount and you say there's nothing, you know you can't go Bey. And at least you know what you're in for. The problem with credit cards is that, you know, even without a Bugatti, you could be in for a lot more than you intend. And actually, I think that, I mean, really, if you want people to manage money, you want them to understand priorities. And if you spend on this, you can't spend on that. And that's basic financial literacy, which you can get with much less risk.

[Somnath Batabail]

But these are prepaid cards with limits.

[Isabel Hilton]

They have limits, but they're credit cards rather than prepaid cards.

[Somnath Batabail]

Yes, that's that.

[Andrew Muller]

Yeah, but on. Is that, is that. And again, Tony, missed your own experience. Somnath Is that distinction important? Because there is still a thing even with a limit on credit cards. I do think people think about them slightly differently because free money. Yeah. You don't see it exit your account immediately. It's like you've got like four whole weeks.

[Somnath Batabail]

Well, to be fair, my son wouldn't understand the difference between a debit card and credit card. He knows that if I tap it, it works or it doesn't work. So the, the thing is with me, so. And if I have set a limit, I know my limits. So I know I'm being the contrarian here, but I somehow feel that. So for example, he goes off to Leicester for a two week tournament. We had given him £100 in cash and somebody nicked it. One of the. He came back crying. Now we give him a card, it doesn't get nicked. So because he has a pin code. And so there's a safety net in that, I feel, which has worked for him. And I know I'm being very particular, but. So I knew I would get into trouble with you too on this one. But I still say that I can understand the logic. I don't know if the government had to say pass this law, was that a necessity? Or parents could choose to, depending on their toddlers, say yes or no.

[Andrew Muller]

So you're advocating giving toddlers credit cards

[Somnath Batabail]

of my 12 year old as a toddler.

[Andrew Muller]

Isabelle, just, just finally, can you imagine what the 12 year old yourself would have done if someone had just said, here's a credit card.

[Isabel Hilton]

Whoopee.

[Andrew Muller]

Exactly the attitude I suspect they're seeking to discourage. Isabel Hilton and Somnath Batabial, thanks for joining us. Finally, on today's show, last week, Royal Designers for Industry launched a new event series, the Entanglement Sessions, a program of talks bringing together designers from across disciplines to rethink how their work can respond to the climate cris. One of the speakers was Joe da Silva, a structural engineer and global director of sustainable development. Rather, at arup, Monocle's Hassan Anderson caught up with her after her talk, which was focused on the idea of regenerative design. Hassan began by asking what sets that approach apart from more familiar ideas of sustainability?

[Joe da Silva]

So sustainability has been really important, but it's basically based on the principle of doing less harm. We've spent decades trying to reduce carbon, to reduce waste, to reduce pollution. Meanwhile, the levels of reduction we've achieved have not kept pace with the damage we've been doing to the planet in terms of climate change, in terms of nature loss. So sustainability hasn't really worked and we have to find a different way. And regenerative design is recognizing that not only do we have to create a equilibrium between human needs and the carrying capacity of the planet, but we also need to heal the damage that's been done to date. Now our planet's sick. We've transgressed most of the sort of health factors for the planet, whether it's in terms of land use or nitrates, phosphates, ocean well being, fresh water. And we need to recognize, recognize that human life on this planet depends on the health of nature. And so start designing places, starting with nature and recognizing that we need to think in systems, not in terms of individual assets.

[Hassan Anderson]

I wanted to come on to systemic design. What will that look like in practical terms, rather than designing things, designing systems.

[Joe da Silva]

So I think it's very easy to say that we're going to design to a brief that we've been given. But I think as designers, we have to look beyond the boundary of that brief to understand the context in which whatever we're designing operates and to recognize that actually everything is a system and there are flows in and out of that system. Those could be flows of material, it could be flows of water, it could be flows of information, it could be flows of people. But actually nothing exists in isolation. Everything is connected to everything else and it's just actually thinking in that different way that enables us to design in a different way. A big chunk of my career has been spent working either in police disaster situations or in emerging economies with people who are poor, who are vulnerable, who don't have agency. And yet. Yet they have ideas, they know what they need and they don't want people to design things for them that are irrelevant. You know, if you're working, designing a kindergarten and you actually start engaging with children, you start seeing the world through the eyes of a six year old, that can change the way you see everything. Similarly with old people, with young people, with marginalized groups. So we as dis designers aren't prima donnas. You know, we don't necessarily need to be the creators. We can simply be the enablers or perhaps the integrators of other people's ideas.

[Hassan Anderson]

There's a kind of forgotten relationship we've had with nature that at one point perhaps was much better than it is today. Do you think that there is a sense in which there was a sweet spot in history where civilization in nature was much more in harmony? And are we destined therefore to kind of design our way back to a past that was once good?

[Joe da Silva]

What people forget is that when I was born, which is in was in the 1960s, there were less than half as many people on the planet. And we were in balance with the capacity of the planet to provide for us. Now we use more than 1.7 planets a year.

[Isabel Hilton]

Year.

[Joe da Silva]

We're just out of balance. But that's happened in my lifetime and therefore I believe that in the next 50 years that we can actually redress that balance and return to where we are. That's why I talk about losing our way. It's not that we're on a trajectory that is going to reach disaster. It's actually recognizing that we've just taken a few wrong turns and we need to get back to the connections that we had previously.

[Hassan Anderson]

I just wonder, when it comes to media reporting on the climate crisis, it can feel very hopeless. You describe yourself as a possibleist rather than optimist. What gives you hope when it comes to the future in terms of what can change and how do you think the media should reflect that?

[Joe da Silva]

I describe myself as a possibilist, which is someone who imagines a better future and then works really hard to get there. All the time. People are creating amazing solutions to the challenges we face. An example of something that's given me real hope is the way in which sponge cities have taken off. This was a concept developed in China by a professor there who was an architect and urban designer. And he said it's ridiculous to put rivers and cities in concrete culverts. They're like straight jackets. And instead, he said, we need to make friends with water. We need to nurture wetlands and open spaces that absorb water, slow down water, and that's how we're going to reduce flood risk. That's been adopted as a national standard in China. It's been adopted globally by firms like us as the way of doing things. These are the things that need to be amplified. In the same way, solar energy and wind energy is cheaper now than any fossil fuels. It's ridiculous to worry about the oil and gas industry drying up because of the situation in the Middle East. What we need to be doing is using this opportunity to recognize that future energy security comes from investing in renewables and local energy sources at home.

[Andrew Muller]

That was Joe da Silva of ARUP speaking with Monocle's Hassan Anderson. And that is all for this edition of the Daily. Thanks to our panelists today, Isabel Hilton and Somnath Batabile. Today's show was produced by Chris Chermack. Our sound engineer was Elliot Greenfield, with editing assistance from Christy o'. Grady. I'm Andrew Muller here in London. The Daily is back at the same time tomorrow. Thanks for listening.