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[00:00]
A
You're listening to the Monocle Daily. First broadcast on 11 June 2026 on Monaco Radio.
[00:06]
B
Russia's 72 hour special military operation officially outlasts World War I, the curiously selective rage of the British rioter. And the 2026 World cup kicks off. I'm Andrew Muller, the Monocle Daily start. Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily. Coming to you from our studios here at Midori House in London. I'm Andrew Muller. My guests Marion Messmer and Paul Waldey will discuss today's big stories and our weekly letter from descends from one of the city's anticipating kickoff. Stay tuned. All that and more coming up right here on the Monocle Daily. This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Andrew Muller and I'm joined today by Dr. Marion Mesmer, Director of the International Security program at Chatham House, by Paul Waldy, Europe correspondent at the Globe and Mail. Hello to you both.
[01:08]
C
Hi there Paul.
[01:10]
B
First of all, very much not your first time on Monocle Radio, our more early rising listeners will be familiar with you from the Globeless, but your first time on the Daily and it is traditional in such circumstances obviously first of all for us to make you wear the owl costume and carrying it off nicely but also to just briefly introduce yourself to the dailies listeners. Who are you and how did you get.
[01:31]
C
Yeah, sure. Well, I am the Europe correspondent for the Globe and Mail. I've been in Britain for about 10 years, came here just before the referendum in 2016.
[01:39]
B
Well, hasn't this been fun?
[01:41]
C
Exactly. And yeah, never left but I've remained. But yeah, I've been at the paper for quite a while, about 20 odd years and covered everything and anything, sports, business, news, politics, wars, everything.
[01:56]
B
Well, just as well because this episode will be touching on various aspects of all of the above. Marion, you have relatively recently I'm to knit this seamlessly together, visited one of the World cup host cities. Which one was it and was it agog with excitement?
[02:11]
A
That's right, I was in New York and at the time they were very excited about a Knicks basketball game. They would be, yes, there are signs of the World cup here and there, but I have to say I saw more World cup related banners and ads when I was transitioning through Munich train station the other day than when I was in New York. So you can take from that what you want.
[02:34]
B
Did you get the impression though that New York was welcoming an absolutely teeming influx of people going to the matches?
[02:42]
A
Not really. Actually no, not at all. I go back and forth pretty regularly for various work related things. And this was one of the emptiest flights I've ever taken to the US in the sense that at check in, the very kind gentleman checking me in asked which row I wanted to sit in because he was trying to assign every flyer their own row. So yeah, it was a very, very empty plane. And it also actually really seemed like they were consolidating flights. So on my flight back I ended up with a lot of other Europeans that clearly had to transit through London rather than being able to fly direct to the capital of their choice.
[03:19]
B
Well, we will pick up on that omen later, but we start in Ukraine where this week Russia's 72 hour lightning conquest of its neighbour exceeded the length of World War I, a fact which may be disturbing the repose of noted history buff Vladimir Putin, who will be aware of how events panned out for the Russ Russian regime which oversaw the beginnings of that conflict. However, Putin imagined back in February 2022 the grand scheme of things might look around now, it is hard to believe that the present reality was Plan A. Nearly 1.4 million Russians dead or wounded, little progress made beyond the 2014 front lines. Ukrainian drones and missiles regularly striking deep inside the motherland. Paul, first of all, as we were discussing before we came on air, you have been back and forth to Ukraine pretty regular. If you think back to a World War I ago, that is February 2022, how likely would the present situation have seemed to you?
[04:19]
C
Oh, completely unlikely. I mean, I remember being on the border between Poland and Ukraine on the day the invasion started. The full scale invasion started, we should say, because this war really in the minds of many Ukrainians started in 2014. But the full scale invasion, 2022, I was on the border watching some of the very first people, very first refugees cross. And I think at that time there was a real sense that, that Russia was just going to sweep through Eastern Ukraine and from the north because they amassed so many soldiers, so many tanks on the border and come at it from pretty substantially from three different directions. So there was a real sense that this was not going to take very long. Russia was going to just sweep through. And then I remember being there later on, just before the Ukrainian army pushed the Russians out of the Kyiv suburbs. And at that point there was a sense, oh, things are starting to turn here, maybe this was going to go longer, but I don't think anybody would have dreamed we'd be four plus years into this with no end in sight.
[05:14]
B
Well, as we look at it now, Marian and I Think that's a fairly common view. I think Vladimir Putin was probably not in the minority four and a bit years ago, but is he now? By which I guess I'm asking, dare we say that Ukraine might actually have the upper hand here.
[05:31]
A
I mean, they have been doing incredibly well, especially in the last few months. So something really seems to have shifted. And what I've been really impressed with is how many very sophisticated Ukrainian produced new types of weapons have been coming online. And if we contextualize that with a lot of European states also finding it increasingly difficult to get orders fulfilled from the US in huge part because the US lost so much of its own inventory in the Iran war and is now prioritizing restocking its own supplies rather than supplying allies. Ukraine is all of a sudden looking like a very serious defense player. And in fact, some Ukrainian factories have already started exporting some of their weaponry because they're finding that they're having to, because the Ukrainian armed forces are not necessarily purchasing from them at the volume that they need to keep things going. So that is quite interesting, especially as the Russian economy is not doing all that well and Russia has never been amazing at especially high tech weaponry. So I think this is a really interesting moment. At the same time, I want to be really, really careful here because I think the World War I anniversary is actually a very sad one. And part of the reason why Ukraine has had to be so innovative in this war and in how it's using drones and how it's been using sort of dual use technology is because it doesn't have the same sort of backup volume of soldiers ready to go to war that, that Russia can commandeer. And the sheer numbers of people that have died in this war is absolutely horrendous. And so, I mean, I still think that this is incredibly risky for Ukraine and for all of Europe. And how the war is going to end is still going to have such a big impact on the future of European security. So I don't necessarily want to overstate Ukraine doing well, but they are indeed doing very well at the moment.
[07:27]
C
Yeah, I get a bit worried about so much focus on the military side of this. You know, comparing the different armaments and comparing the different drones, that, and forgetting about the fact that the Ukrainian economy is in a terrible, terrible shape. Right. I mean, we can talk about the Russian economy struggling, but the Ukrainian economy is in really bad shape. And whenever I was there, it always struck me at how many people were out of work, how many people had seen their wages cut, how many people were just living day by day. And you think about the number of soldiers that the Russians have lost, which we kind of estimate, but Ukrainians aren't that far behind. They've lost an awful lot of people and in a much smaller population, they're facing problems with desertion, they're facing problems with leaving the country. They had this law for still in place, I guess, that men can't leave, men of a certain age, but many still do leave. So it's a very, very difficult place, I think, to live. And I think that sometimes gets lost in this talk about Ukraine's maybe turning the tide. Yes, but still, it's a very, very hard place for them to be in.
[08:20]
B
Just to pick up on one point there, Paul, does it seem, though likeliest, that if we look at this from Russia and Vladimir Putin's perspective, that they've just settled into thinking we can do this longer than Ukraine can?
[08:33]
C
Yeah, I think Putin doesn't really care about world opinion or anybody else. And I think he very much believes this is a war of attrition, that no matter what, he can put his country through all kinds of pain. And I think there's no doubt they're feeling the pain now, maybe more so than they have before. Maybe there's gonna be some internal coup or something in Russia like we saw before. But I think from Putin's mind, he's just gonna wait this out and wear truly believes, I think, or he has been told that he can wear Ukraine down. It's so much smaller population wise, it's suffering economically more than Russia. I think he's just going to wait it out, get through another winter, keep lobbing shells at Kyiv, and eventually he'll prevail.
[09:13]
B
I mean, is there still a danger, Marion? Because this is obviously the nightmare which has haunted the rest of Europe these last four years, that Putin in extremists or making no progress in Ukraine, feeling like his back's to the wall, et cetera, tries to up the ante. And everyone's familiar with the nightmare scenarios. You have Russia bite off a chunk of Estonia and or Latvia and then say, come on then, who wants to do World War 3 over this? Is that still a live possibility?
[09:41]
A
I actually didn't think that that was the direction you were going to go in. I thought you were going to say, is he going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or as a demonstration strike. Interesting test for myself which one I would think is more likely. I don't think it's particularly likely that he would. Or basically open a second front with NATO while still engaged in Ukraine. I think that scenario becomes a lot more likely if you have some sort of a ceasefire or peace agreement and Russia then has some time to regroup and rearm. Because even though they've not necessarily been using all the kit that they would be using against NATO and Ukraine, I don't think that they are in a shape where they could take on NATO at this point in time. And even though Putin's information seems to have become very poor and he seems to have become even more isolated than he has been or than he already was in 2022 when he made this bad decision, I don't think that his decision making has deteriorated to the point where he would be delusional enough to think that he can take on NATO. I think the question about nuclear use is sort of in a similar boat, but slightly different. I could imagine if he feels that he personally is threatened, so not Russia as such, but his leadership is threatened, that that all of a sudden becomes like a much more attractive proposition as a sort of Hail Mary to save himself. But again, I think we quite far off that at the moment.
[11:04]
B
And just before we move off this one, Paul, if we look at it from Ukraine's perspective, do they have better options than they did maybe a year, certainly two years ago? Because everyone is still talking about what a possible settlement might look like and something that would be something that Ukraine would agree to, perhaps short of the maximalist demands that President Zelenskyy has always made, that is a complete restoration of the. The shape the country was in 1991. Do we get to a point, though, where the smart move for Ukraine would be to basically settle for some sort of partition for the moment, on the assumption that what we might think of as West Ukraine is absorbed into the EU and NATO, with the assumption that, as happened in Germany, East Ukraine will follow later?
[11:51]
C
Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to know what either side would claim as victory at this point. I don't even know what Putin wants anymore. First he wanted all of Ukraine. He wanted Kyiv, he wanted all of it. Now he wants Donbass. Does he want these five regions he's claimed they control? And it's hard to know where Zelenskyy goes from here because there really is a stalemate, right? I mean, because of drones, because of everything else, the front doesn't move very much either way. So does Zelensky just have to give up the land that Russia's already taken? Does Russia say we want more? I mean, it's very, very Hard to figure out who wants what out of this thing, but likely it's probably more on Zelenskyy's side to cut a deal at this point than Putin.
[12:26]
B
Well, here in the United Kingdom, meanwhile, there has been further rioting in Belfast and in the Grateful for Small Mercies department probably acknowledge our good fortune at living in a time when this is in fact news. The alleged reason for the violence, which has seen several homes and vehicles burned, is a knife attack which left its victim with dreadful injuries and for which a Sudanese man has been arrested and charged. The actual reason, it seems reasonable to assert, is that a cohort of hooligans have been licensed and encouraged by far right politicians and one particular foreign social media platform proprietor to wreak expedient mayhem. Marion it always strikes me when I see such events as these on television, or indeed as I have up close, that what gets often overlooked for one reason or another in the reporting is that everybody participating in the riot is enjoying themselves tremendously.
[13:20]
A
Yeah, I mean that's, that's an interesting point. I did see the profile of one of the rioters earlier today, which was someone with a lot of, you know, along history of minor crimes and some major crimes, you know, like the sort of standard hooligan profile of like previous previously known to the police, some sort of bar type violence, some domestic violence, some petty theft, you know, just someone who you wouldn't necessarily characterize as an upstanding citizen. And so it's, it's interesting to me that essentially we seem to have arrived at a point where you have a constituency like that in the UK that can be quite easily manipulated for violence. That's not necessarily a good place to be in as a society.
[14:13]
B
I mean, I think it's always been there to a certain extent or another, perhaps especially in Northern Ireland. PAUL but are you surprised by the cognitive dissonance that the far right politicians align themselves with this, are able to overcome in that they perennially state that they are standing up for the, the unheard, decent silent majority of these islands. And yet their most enthusiastic supporters, as Marion quite correctly pointed out, very frequently turn out to be probably not the kind of people they would be happy living next door to.
[14:47]
C
Yeah, or probably the kind of people that even vote. But I think you're right. I mean, I think Northern Ireland presents all kinds of complications in something like this because when you throw in paramilitaries and other kinds of, you know, forces that have been around there for a while that get mixed up in all, it gets really complicated and Difficult. But these kinds of demonstrations, these kinds of protests, this kind of violence isn't new, isn't certainly new to Northern Ireland. It's kind of been going on for a while across the uk we saw it last summer as well. And a lot of this stems from the whole issue with the small boats, these people coming across from Calais. That has been a flashpoint, even though the numbers are relatively minor, relatively small compared to, and getting smaller and getting smaller compared to overall immigration. I mean, I think there's only like 2,000 asylum seekers who've been settled in Northern Ireland. Anyway, when you look at the actual numbers, they're small. But that doesn't mean anything anymore. And we've certainly seen that in other countries, in Germany and Canada, anywhere you see that where the numbers are actually very, very small. When you try and talk to people about the sort of logic of this and the actual rational numbers and that kind of thing doesn't matter. Right. It's what happens in the us it's what happens everywhere. So I think that's what's happening here. And it's really hard to understand how this is going to play out and how this is going to ever go away.
[16:00]
B
Dare we hope, Marion, that this will, that is to say, an association between parties like Reform UK and Restore and scenes of this sort will backfire on them eventually? I mean, I know people hoped that wistfully, many, many times about President Trump's administration and actually have been wishing that fairly wistfully now for more than a decade, and yet it never quite seems to happen.
[16:25]
A
Gosh, I mean, I really hope so. Right. And what gives me hope is that ukip, which was sort of the precursor to all of this, and there have been so many right wing parties in the UK that essentially are around for a relatively short period of time and then flame out for some reason or another, and usually because they're actually terrible at governance. And so reform is now in a few local councils and by all accounts doing a terrible job. So I do hope that once people realize, which they may or may not, because even though local politics is incredibly important in the uk, it's also probably the type of politics that no one's paying any attention to. But if they do, then I think they will realize that the sort of pre election promises don't really match up with how governance is going once these parties are actually in power. But on the other hand, what I do find worrying is that Nigel Farage has managed to stick around as a sort of leader for that kind of movement. You Know, despite clearly previously having led Ukip and not having been very successful with that, and also, you know, having a very mixed record, that doesn't necessarily suggest that he has the best interest of the UK or the UK public at heart. And so, yeah, I. I think the governance record of those parties speaks for itself. But on the other hand, they have some charismatic figures that do seem to be able to galvanize people.
[17:48]
C
I think that's the key, because, you know, I was in Hungary for the recent election, and that's exactly what happened. You saw Orban just get swept from power. He was in for a long time. But what I was told then was, you know, look, these populist parties, when they're out of power, attract a lot of attention because they have a lot of simple solutions. But once they're actually in power, and admittedly, Orban was in for a long time, but even in other countries, we've seen this in the Netherlands and elsewhere, where these far right figures get into power, these populist figures get into power, and then they realize they're not very good at governing. And that's when the people say, okay, we've had enough of you. Right. And the backlash can be pretty swift. And to some extent, we're seeing that in the U.S. trump's approval ratings are plummeting. So I think that is something that these parties need to keep in mind. And they've all kind of been distancing themselves from Orban's party now, you know, a national rally and all these kinds of parties in Europe. But I think that's a real problem for them, that they really don't know how to govern.
[18:37]
B
All that said, Paul, is it clear to you why the US Administration is so keen to stick its oar in events such as this in the United Kingdom? And I have to say I did at least enjoy the US Homeland Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen saying of these demonstrators today that, and I quote, all they want is to be Irish. Tell us you've never been to East Belfast without telling us you've never been to East Belfast, et cetera, because Irish is pretty much the last thing they wish to be. But we have. We have heard Pete Hegseth teeing off at Normandy this week about the small boats, trying to draw some sort of bizarre analogy between Operation Overlord and the small boats crisis. JD Vance was very voluble on the subject of the recent murder of Henry Novak in Southampton. They have a point, I guess, in that certainly British politicians were not silent about the murder of George Floyd but what's in it for them? Why do they think this is a thing? It's not as if they don't have crime they could be dealing with at home.
[19:35]
C
I think a lot of this has to be viewed through the lens of politics in the US elections, future elections. And who's gonna stand for what? I mean, I don't think they really care at all about British politics. What they care about is appealing to that MAGA base. The folks are gonna decide who the next nominee is gonna be. That's certainly J.D. vance's mind. Maybe that's in Hegseth's mind. These people are positioning themselves for 2028, there's no doubt about it. So everything they talk about is with the view to keeping that coalition, keeping that group and inheriting Trump's mantle to some respect with that group of people. And that's really what this is all about.
[20:11]
A
And it's also such a corrosive type of narrative, right? I mean, on my recent US trip, I was speaking with a normally very reasonable friend who is not MAGA at all. And I was very seriously asked with a lot of concern whether there really was a massive, massive knife crime and sort of Sharia problem in London. And I was like, oh, my friend, you've really fallen for something here. It was quite difficult to explain.
[20:34]
B
Well, on that thought, Marion, and just finally on this, have we reached the point at which the government of the United Kingdom and the governments of other, you might think of broadly democratic countries just pull all their plugs? As far as Elon Musk's Platform X is concerned, should they, that is to say, keep. Keep promoting and raising clout and revenue for the platform of a foreign maniac who is trying to incite a race war.
[21:02]
A
I mean, I think it would be totally fair enough for European governments to ban or at least completely boycott X at this point, because there's no genuine policy exchange that happens on that platform anymore. But I fear that it goes beyond X. I mean, X is one of the worst offenders of spreading disinformation and just, you know, not. Not being helpful in that regard. But all social media plat have really moved away from sort of serious content moderation, trying to do something about disinformation generally. I worry actually, you know, for places like the UK or for many European places that have a significant number of older voters, Facebook has become a real cesspit of misinformation as well. So I think we're actually seeing the result of European governments generally just not really having a handle on how to deal with, with disinformation as a, as a challenge to society.
[21:57]
B
Well, to Mexico now, we're about an hour and a half from now. The 2026 World cup will kick off as Mexico play South Africa at the imaginatively renamed Mexico City Stadium in the imaginatively named Mexico City. The actual thud of boot on ball may come as something of a relief to organizers who have endured a torrid week or so of headlines about unsold tickets, larcenous concession stand prices, referees being sent home for being foreign and other difficulties which might, who knows, have been even worse had FIFA not taken the precaution of presenting US President Donald Trump with a large, ugly trophy that absolutely nobody takes seriously. Paul, as the one representative of a host nation at this table, how excited are you?
[22:42]
C
Oh, I mean, look, I'm always excited for the World cup, but I don't know how excited Canadians are because this is very much. Even though everybody thinks it's like a Canada, U.S. mexico World cup, it's not. It's a U.S. world cup cup. Canada, Mexico get 13 games each. The U.S. gets 78, plus all the quarterfinals, all the semifinals and the final. Of course, it's also a very strange mix of countries when it comes to soccer, football, Mexico, of course, it's number one sport. They're crazy about it. Canada, the U.S. they could care less about it really. So it's an odd mix. There's three different mascots. Each country has its own mascot, animals, of course, or birds in the case of the US So it's a very odd. They don't really work together, they don't market together, and politics is overriding all of this. And of course, all three countries are now kind of at loggerheads over a whole bunch of different issues. So it's a really odd World Cup.
[23:32]
B
Marion, what's it like being German when a World cup starts? Do you just make a cup of tea, put your feet up and anticipate victory?
[23:40]
A
Well, I mean, the German diaspora gets very excited. Right. I'm not a huge football fan, I have to say. Normally
[23:49]
B
you're one of the shameless every two or four year bandwagon jumper Turks.
[23:52]
A
That's exactly. Yes. All the, you know, German or German related WhatsApp groups that I'm in go absolutely crazy around this time. And I expect to be invited to a lot of different watch parties over the next few weeks. But yeah, I mean, Germany obviously hugely into the World cup. And yeah, I have to say I was really surprised how much people seem to be simply excited for another World cup, despite all of these challenges. Right. And I guess the German national team on German referees are not going to be as affected by the border restrictions as unfortunately some other people have been. But I would have expected Germans to be a little more, I think, perhaps self critical about their enjoyment of this World Cup.
[24:34]
B
Because on that thought, Paul, as you were discussing, this is a slightly strange arrangement. It's not the first World cup or international tournament to be spread across multiple countries. Certainly the European championships have done it before. But was this one predicated, do you think, possibly on relations between Mexico, the United States and Canada being somewhat more harmonious than they presently are? By which, when this was first mooted, was anybody worried about the possibility of one of the three countries threatening to invade or attack the other two?
[25:07]
C
I mean, yeah, we're annexing one of them. Yeah. I mean, I think that, you know, this is 2018 when this was announced and we had Justin Trudeau who was the prime minister, and 20 Trump was president at that time, obviously, and there was a different president in Mexico. But at that time relations were a little bit better. Trump was already kind of not liking Trudeau very much, but they really went off the rails obviously when Trump got reelected. And clearly, certainly from Canada's perspective, this whole talk of annexing and that has been very, very difficult. The animosity is really, really high. And Canada has no expectations in the World cup. When it comes to soccer, I mean, we've never won a game. We've only been there three times and we only, we get in this time for free, basically. And we've never won a game, only scored two goals, I think so. But we have a very good young team, I'm told. So I don't think, you know, if it was another sport, maybe if it was baseball. And of course we had a baseball team that did very well last year. Hockey, we do very well in. Canadians would really be fired up about this because we'd have a chance to win or at least do well. But I think when it comes to soccer, it's kind of like we don't really know what's going on. If we win a game, we'll be through. But yeah, the politics in this is very, very difficult. I think for that reason, Canadians are probably not. I've seen some polls showing people in Vancouver and Toronto, 70% of them are not keen on this at all. And I think part of that is reflective of the U.S. it's such a U.S. dominated event and Canadians attitudes towards the U.S. right now, certainly for the first time in my life, I've never seen them so low and people really, really disliking the US So I don't think there's a lot of enthusiasm for this in Canada beyond how the Canadians. But once they're out of it, no one will care.
[26:39]
B
Is it possible, Marion, that as Paul notes, obviously football, or soccer as Americans would call it, it's not a major preoccupation most of the time? Is it possible that for that reason this administration may be underestimating what a PR disaster this could be? Because the whole world will be watching? And if the whole thing is a shambles, and there are many reports which echo what you were saying about the empty plane of hotel bookings in host cities being far below what people expected, still a lot of unsold tickets. And that's before we get to the worries about logistics, overreach by ICE, etc. Etc. Etc. Could this go off quite badly in America's face?
[27:23]
A
Potentially, I think it could, but I'm not sure that it's something the administration is underestimating versus the administration may just simply not care. I don't get the sense that they are too concerned with the overall political perception of the US and if anything, I would imagine that President Trump is probably quite pleased because he's probably going to see it as his World cup since he originally negotiated with FIFA that it was meant to be in the United States. And I think, I mean, I, I, I think I feel particularly sorry for Mexico in all of this because as Paul pointed out, they are probably the most excited out of the three to be able to host the World cup as a real football nation. But I am also really surprised how much FIFA has bungled this because what I've heard about ticket prices, it sounds like they are absolutely insane. I mean, you know, in some cases in the hundreds and thousands for games that no one really would pay. Hundreds and thousands. Especially if you've already traveled from one of the other countries that really love football, you know, whether that's, whether that's Europe or South America or somewhere else where people are coming from significant distances at significant expense to then also have to shell out a grand for a ticket.
[28:36]
B
Well, just finally on this, I wanted to ask you both what you most look forward to about a World cup beyond how well or otherwise your team might do. Because obviously if we get onto that subject, Marion will just be insufferable and the rest of us, as a Canadian and Australian, really have nothing to contribute. Because for me, the thing I will ask you first, Paul because the thing I always enjoy most, most about a World cup is. And we've got an even bigger chance of it this year because the group stages are going to go on so much longer. There's usually at least one game in the group stages which between two teams, between two countries which have no apparent reason to dislike each other, but which nevertheless just descends into utter carnage. I actually have quite high hopes for Canada versus Bosnia.
[29:18]
C
Oh, wow. Good to hear.
[29:20]
B
Yeah, I can see that one getting rowdy.
[29:22]
C
I mean, I think you always look for the biggest. I think it was the last World cup was in Saudi Arabia, beat Argentina and then they went on to win it. So you always look for that kind of big upset because that causes such waves in the country where it wasn't supposed to happen and you've got to wait many days for the next game and maybe it's going to affect your group standing. So I think I always look for that. I always look for some small country to just take on a big country and beat them.
[29:42]
B
Well, there we go, Marion. So what you've got to go up against. Paul likes the heroic upset. I just like a punch up. What do you most look forward to?
[29:51]
A
I really like the atmosphere because I feel like both my native country, Germany, and my adopted country UK are both places where people normally really like a moan. You know, you wouldn't really describe Germans or Brits as particularly optimistic people, but in both countries, people are just in a better mood when the World cup is on and at least until they're
[30:11]
B
no longer in it.
[30:12]
A
That is true. Happens more often for England than it does for Germany.
[30:15]
B
Okay, there was no need for that.
[30:18]
A
Perhaps not if we're talking about the women's team. So, you know, I'll give them that. But yeah, I mean, generally, you know, people, it's a sort of. It's an event. People are really looking forward to it. There's a lot going on around it and I really enjoy that.
[30:31]
C
Yeah. Germany plays a game in Canada. So there you go.
[30:33]
A
That's right.
[30:33]
C
One of their games in Vancouver.
[30:35]
B
Paul Waldy and Marion Mesmer, thank you both for joining us. Finally and fittingly on today's show, our weekly letter from arrives from one of the World Cup's host cities. Here's Thomas Lewis, US.
[30:52]
D
When I first arrived in Toronto more than a decade ago, by this stage, someone described the city to me pretty early on as a pretty fantastic place to watch a World cup in. And that's because Toronto is one of the biggest cities in the world where more than Half the population was born somewhere else. So as the world gets ready to roll into town for this World Cup, a lot of the world is here already. So for me anyway, there's quite a nice symmetry to that, that Toronto is now a formal World cup host. And I think on an emotional level, the ties between the World cup and Toronto therefore do run pretty deep. I think it's back in 1982 that Italy won the tournament that year. And in celebration, they estimate between 300,000 and 5, 500,000 people, mostly from the Italian diaspora in the city, took to the streets, shut big chunks of the city down for days on end as they celebrated. And that's still quite a big chapter in the city's sort of collective memory, even all these years later. And we're starting to see little sort of glimpses of that kind of spirit over the past few days as well. It was on Sunday, I think, that Bosnia and Herzegovina, the national team, arrived in Toronto ahead of their opening game against Canada here in Toronto. And groups of Bosnian supporters had lined the highway with national flags and cheering and waving as the team made their way into the city. And that footage did gain quite a lot of traction here. I think little glimpses like that have really helped the sort of magic of the whole thing to set in after a build up that has, Frank, frankly, been pretty subdued. I think the excitement for the tournament in Toronto has taken a while to get off the ground for a few reasons, really. Canada isn't hosting that many of the 100 plus games being staged in this expanded tournament this time around. And also I think the way that the buildup has played out south of the border in the US in this fairly transactional corporate way with wrangells over ticket price prices and transport costs, I think some of that has spilled over into Canada as well. But to get a sense of what Toronto stands to gain from being a World cup city this time around, I spoke recently to Professor David Soberman of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto. And this is some of what he had to say.
[33:15]
E
Canada for, you know, all of there's a lot of things we don't do well, but there's a lot of things we do do well. There's a lot of people that just come for the party, so that's a real positive thing for the city. The second thing is, I think it gets you on the map. People see Toronto and they see that it's a pretty fantastic city. It's extremely multicultural, it's clean, it's safe, it's got very different areas associated with the communities that have formed the city and they get a chance to experience that. There's also a lot to see here. So those are all positive things. You know, the theater is great and the music is great and the restaurants are really good and there's a lot to do. So the museums are great as well. So for sure there's that other dimension which is perhaps more qualitative, but that's one of the benefit of these types of events. To some degree, we've not optimized this opportunity, but at least we haven't missed it completely.
[34:18]
D
It'll be interesting to see the spirit of the city really as the matches get underway because a couple of years ago Toronto hosted the Pan American Games and those were a big success for the city. But I remember feeling at the time, if you weren't actually at some of those events, it would have been quite easy to miss the fact that the Americas had come to Toronto to compete in the Pan American Games that year year. So we have seen some efforts to try and counter that. The plaza in front of Toronto's famous City hall buildings, for example, a portion of that has been turned into a public football pitch. And it's been quite lovely seeing at all hours of the day and night actually groups of people taking a football with them and, and kicking that around in front of the two curving silhouettes of Toronto City Hall. And of course, the spirit of these things always check changes once the matches get underway and that magic starts to happen. And if the Canadian national team does well, which there is a good chance that they might go quite deep into the tournament, then Toronto, I'm sure will be very proud of the part it may have played in that. But to go back to a point I made earlier, there are so many countries represented in Toronto anyway outside of the World cup that somewhat will be cheering somewhere for some result that happens in Toronto or in one of the other host cities of this World cup this time around.
[35:43]
B
That was Thomas Lewis in Toronto. And that's all for this edition of the Monocle Daily. Thanks to our panelists today, Marion Mesmer and Paul Waldy. Today's show was produced by Nita Riota and researched by Josefina Astrad Nagla Gomez. Our sound engineer was Steph Chungu. Andrew Muller here in London. The Daily is back at the same time tomorrow. Thanks for listening,
[36:24]
A
Ra.

Summary9 min read

Podcast Summary: The Monocle Daily

Episode: Belfast is burning: Where does far-right rhetoric on immigration lead?
Date: June 12, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Dr. Marion Mesmer (Chatham House), Paul Waldy (The Globe and Mail Europe Correspondent)
Notable Segment: Letter from Toronto by Thomas Lewis

Overview

This episode unpacks several critical issues on both European and global stages. Centering on the persistence and complexity of the Russia-Ukraine war, the alarming uptick in far-right incited riots in Belfast, and the political backdrop to the opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the discussion probes the intersection of geopolitics, domestic unrest, and global sporting events. The panel combines on-the-ground observations, policy analysis, and a sharp eye on media manipulation—especially by the far right.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Russia-Ukraine War: Lingering Conflict and Uncertain Outcomes

Segment: 03:19–12:26

Unexpected Stalemate:
- Paul Waldy reflects on his presence at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and describes initial expectations for a rapid Russian advance, now upended by a protracted conflict.
  - “There was a real sense that this was not going to take very long ... I don't think anybody would have dreamed we'd be four plus years into this with no end in sight.” (04:18, Paul)
Ukrainian Resilience and Innovation:
- Marion Mesmer points to Ukraine's impressive military adaptability and their growing defense industry, despite shortages of personnel and European difficulties sourcing US military aid.
  - “They have been doing incredibly well, especially in the last few months ... Ukrainian-produced new types of weapons have been coming online.” (05:30, Marion)
- However, she cautions against overstating Ukraine’s position, noting the tragic human toll and immense risks.
Human and Economic Cost:
- Waldy cautions that the emphasis on armaments overlooks Ukraine’s deep economic crisis and population losses.
  - “The Ukrainian economy is in really bad shape ... whenever I was there, it always struck me at how many people were out of work.” (07:26, Paul)
Russia’s War of Attrition:
- Panel agrees that Putin likely bets on outlasting Ukraine, caring little for world opinion and presuming that enduring more pain than Ukraine is a path to victory.
  - “Putin doesn't really care about world opinion … he can put his country through all kinds of pain.” (08:33, Paul)
Nightmare Scenarios:
- Discussion about risk of further escalation—whether Putin would attack NATO or use nuclear weapons—concludes both are unlikely for now.
  - “I don't think ... he would ... open a second front with NATO ... I don't think that they are in a shape where they could take on NATO.” (09:41, Marion)
Prospects for Settlement:
- The possibility of a Ukraine partition emerges, with Zelensky possibly having to negotiate from a weaker position, as practical options narrow.
  - “It's really hard to know what either side would claim as victory at this point ... Does Zelensky just have to give up the land that Russia's already taken?” (11:51, Paul)

2. Far-Right-Driven Riots in Belfast: Causes and Consequences

Segment: 12:26–21:57

Trigger Incident in Context:
- The immediate spark was a knife attack by a Sudanese man, but guest analysis attributes the unrest to far-right politicians exploiting crime for political ends, emboldening existing hooligan elements to violence.
  - “What gets often overlooked ... is that everybody participating in the riot is enjoying themselves tremendously.” (13:20, Andrew)
  - “You have a constituency like that in the UK that can be quite easily manipulated for violence. That's not necessarily a good place to be in as a society.” (13:20, Marion)
Numbers vs. Perception:
- Paul highlights that the actual migrant and asylum seeker population in Northern Ireland is quite small, yet fear and hostility are amplified far beyond statistical reality.
  - “There's only like 2,000 asylum seekers who've been settled in Northern Ireland ... when you look at the actual numbers, they're small. But that doesn't mean anything anymore.” (14:46, Paul)
Far-Right Party Trajectories:
- Reflections on whether associations with violence might backfire on parties like Reform UK. Marion notes cyclical patterns where right-wing populist parties rise, perform poorly in governance, and then fade.
  - “...UKIP ... and there have been so many right wing parties in the UK ... around for a relatively short period of time and then flame out ... usually because they're actually terrible at governance.” (16:25, Marion)
- Persistent figures like Nigel Farage are singled out for concern, showing how certain personalities maintain the movement’s energy despite past failures.
International Echoes and the Failure to Govern:
- Paul draws from recent experiences in Hungary and the Netherlands, observing that populists succeed in opposition with “simple solutions,” but often collapse under the complexity of governing.
  - “These populist parties ... attract a lot of attention ... once they're actually in power ... people say, okay, we've had enough of you. And the backlash can be pretty swift.” (17:47, Paul)
US Political Interference:
- US politicians’ enthusiastic commentary on UK immigration issues is analyzed as being more about US domestic political posturing for 2028 and the MAGA base than genuine concern about Britain.
  - “Everything they talk about is with the view to ... inheriting Trump's mantle ... that's really what this is all about.” (19:34, Paul)
- Andrew wryly notes the irony of US politicians mischaracterizing Northern Irish loyalists:
  - “All they want is to be Irish. Tell us you've never been to East Belfast without telling us you've never been to East Belfast.” (18:36, Andrew)
Media Disinformation Hazard:
- Marion and Andrew agree that social media—particularly X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook—are fanning the flames of disinformation and hate, with governments failing to respond meaningfully.
  - “European governments ... [should] completely boycott X ... there's no genuine policy exchange that happens ... but it goes beyond X. ... Facebook has become a real cesspit of misinformation as well.” (21:01, Marion)

3. The 2026 FIFA World Cup: Ambitious, Disjointed, and Politicized

Segment: 21:57–30:33

Soccer as a Sideshow to Geopolitics:
- Despite co-hosting, Canada and Mexico are sidelined (13 games each) while the US hosts the majority, reflecting imbalanced arrangements and political tensions among the trio.
  - “Everybody thinks it's like a Canada, U.S., Mexico World Cup, it's not. It's a U.S. World Cup ... [Canada/Mexico] get 13 games each. The U.S. gets 78.” (22:42, Paul)
  - “All three countries are now kind of at loggerheads over a whole bunch of different issues. So it's a really odd World Cup.” (22:42, Paul)
Ticketing, Organization, and Lack of Excitement:
- Marion and Paul note the event has been marred by poor ticket sales, exorbitant prices, and logistical barriers, further complicated by ICE overreach and a lack of local excitement in Canada.
  - “What I've heard about ticket prices, it sounds like they are absolutely insane ... in the hundreds and thousands for games that no one really would pay [that much] for.” (28:35, Marion)
National Attitudes and Political Backdrop:
- Paul highlights that Canadians are ambivalent or even negative, seeing the event as US-dominated in an era of low US-Canada goodwill.
  - “Canadians attitudes towards the U.S. ... for the first time in my life, I've never seen them so low ... I don't think there's a lot of enthusiasm for this in Canada.” (25:07, Paul)
Potential for PR Disaster:
- Marion speculates that the US administration may not care about international opinion, while FIFA’s bungling may leave host cities struggling with financial and logistical fallout.
  - “I’m not sure that it’s something the administration is underestimating versus ... may just simply not care.” (27:22, Marion)
World Cup Joys:
- Hosts and guests share what they enjoy about the World Cup, from underdog upsets to cheerful national atmospheres, with a bit of friendly banter:
  - “There's usually at least one game ... between two countries which have no apparent reason to dislike each other, but which nevertheless just descends into utter carnage. I actually have quite high hopes for Canada versus Bosnia.” (29:18, Andrew)
  - “Germans or Brits [aren’t] particularly optimistic people, but in both countries ... people are just in a better mood when the World Cup is on ... until they're no longer in it.” (29:50, Marion)

4. Weekly Letter from Toronto: Anticipation and Multicultural Magic

Segment: 30:52–35:43

Toronto’s World Cup Vibe:
- Thomas Lewis narrates the build-up in Toronto, a city where half the population is foreign-born, leading to unique atmospherics with diaspora communities rallying across football allegiances.
  - “Toronto is one of the biggest cities in the world where more than half the population was born somewhere else. ... as the world gets ready to roll into town ... a lot of the world is here already.” (30:52, Thomas)
Cautious Optimism and Civic Opportunity:
- Despite a subdued build-up and relatively few matches in Canada, there is hope that Toronto will benefit from global attention and local vibrancy.
  - Prof. David Soberman: “People see Toronto and they see that it's a pretty fantastic city ... extremely multicultural, it's clean, it's safe ... the theater is great and the music is great and the restaurants are really good ... another dimension which is perhaps more qualitative, but that's one of the benefit of these types of events.” (33:14, Prof. Soberman)
Legacy Challenge:
- Lewis draws a contrast with the 2015 Pan-American Games, hoping the spirit of the World Cup will be more tangible city-wide as games kick off.
  - “The spirit of these things always changes once the matches get underway and that magic starts to happen.” (34:18, Thomas)

Notable Quotes & Moments

Paul Waldy on the Russia-Ukraine war’s unexpected duration:

“I don't think anybody would have dreamed we'd be four plus years into this with no end in sight.” (04:18)
Marion Mesmer on the rise of domestic defense manufacturing in Ukraine:

“Some Ukrainian factories have already started exporting some of their weaponry ... that's quite interesting.” (05:30)
Discussion on UK far-right manipulation:

“What gets often overlooked ... is that everybody participating in the riot is enjoying themselves tremendously.” (13:20, Andrew)
Paul Waldy on US politicians commenting on UK riots:

“Everything they talk about is with the view to ... inheriting Trump's mantle ... that's really what this is all about.” (19:34)
Marion Mesmer on disinformation and social media:

“European governments ... [should] completely boycott X ... Facebook has become a real cesspit of misinformation as well.” (21:01)
Thomas Lewis on Toronto’s multicultural embrace of the World Cup:

“Toronto is one of the biggest cities in the world where more than half the population was born somewhere else.” (30:52)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Russia-Ukraine War Analysis | 03:19–12:26| | Riots in Belfast & Far-Right Rhetoric | 12:26–21:57| | World Cup 2026: Politics & Public Response | 21:57–30:33| | Letter from Toronto (World Cup Build-up) | 30:52–35:43|

Tone & Style

The Monocle Daily remains sharply analytical but conversational, blending policy scrutiny with wit and a global perspective. The episode’s mood shifts fluidly: from grim realism (Ukraine) and sober concern (Belfast) to sardonic humor (World Cup politics) and warmth (Toronto’s letter).

Summary Takeaways

The war in Ukraine has settled into a costly and intractable stalemate that defies early predictions.
Far-right rhetoric and social media manipulation are fuelling violence and distraction in the UK and beyond, often disconnected from actual immigration figures.
Major sporting events like the World Cup are being shaped by political undercurrents, regional competition, and logistical mismanagement, with public excitement varying accordingly.
Amid heavy news, moments of community, diaspora pride, and global connection still matter—as captured in Toronto’s multicultural anticipation of the World Cup.

Loading summary

Transcript63 lines

[00:00]
A
You're listening to the Monocle Daily. First broadcast on 11 June 2026 on Monaco Radio.
[00:06]
B
Russia's 72 hour special military operation officially outlasts World War I, the curiously selective rage of the British rioter. And the 2026 World cup kicks off. I'm Andrew Muller, the Monocle Daily start. Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily. Coming to you from our studios here at Midori House in London. I'm Andrew Muller. My guests Marion Messmer and Paul Waldey will discuss today's big stories and our weekly letter from descends from one of the city's anticipating kickoff. Stay tuned. All that and more coming up right here on the Monocle Daily. This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Andrew Muller and I'm joined today by Dr. Marion Mesmer, Director of the International Security program at Chatham House, by Paul Waldy, Europe correspondent at the Globe and Mail. Hello to you both.
[01:08]
C
Hi there Paul.
[01:10]
B
First of all, very much not your first time on Monocle Radio, our more early rising listeners will be familiar with you from the Globeless, but your first time on the Daily and it is traditional in such circumstances obviously first of all for us to make you wear the owl costume and carrying it off nicely but also to just briefly introduce yourself to the dailies listeners. Who are you and how did you get.
[01:31]
C
Yeah, sure. Well, I am the Europe correspondent for the Globe and Mail. I've been in Britain for about 10 years, came here just before the referendum in 2016.
[01:39]
B
Well, hasn't this been fun?
[01:41]
C
Exactly. And yeah, never left but I've remained. But yeah, I've been at the paper for quite a while, about 20 odd years and covered everything and anything, sports, business, news, politics, wars, everything.
[01:56]
B
Well, just as well because this episode will be touching on various aspects of all of the above. Marion, you have relatively recently I'm to knit this seamlessly together, visited one of the World cup host cities. Which one was it and was it agog with excitement?
[02:11]
A
That's right, I was in New York and at the time they were very excited about a Knicks basketball game. They would be, yes, there are signs of the World cup here and there, but I have to say I saw more World cup related banners and ads when I was transitioning through Munich train station the other day than when I was in New York. So you can take from that what you want.
[02:34]
B
Did you get the impression though that New York was welcoming an absolutely teeming influx of people going to the matches?
[02:42]
A
Not really. Actually no, not at all. I go back and forth pretty regularly for various work related things. And this was one of the emptiest flights I've ever taken to the US in the sense that at check in, the very kind gentleman checking me in asked which row I wanted to sit in because he was trying to assign every flyer their own row. So yeah, it was a very, very empty plane. And it also actually really seemed like they were consolidating flights. So on my flight back I ended up with a lot of other Europeans that clearly had to transit through London rather than being able to fly direct to the capital of their choice.
[03:19]
B
Well, we will pick up on that omen later, but we start in Ukraine where this week Russia's 72 hour lightning conquest of its neighbour exceeded the length of World War I, a fact which may be disturbing the repose of noted history buff Vladimir Putin, who will be aware of how events panned out for the Russ Russian regime which oversaw the beginnings of that conflict. However, Putin imagined back in February 2022 the grand scheme of things might look around now, it is hard to believe that the present reality was Plan A. Nearly 1.4 million Russians dead or wounded, little progress made beyond the 2014 front lines. Ukrainian drones and missiles regularly striking deep inside the motherland. Paul, first of all, as we were discussing before we came on air, you have been back and forth to Ukraine pretty regular. If you think back to a World War I ago, that is February 2022, how likely would the present situation have seemed to you?
[04:19]
C
Oh, completely unlikely. I mean, I remember being on the border between Poland and Ukraine on the day the invasion started. The full scale invasion started, we should say, because this war really in the minds of many Ukrainians started in 2014. But the full scale invasion, 2022, I was on the border watching some of the very first people, very first refugees cross. And I think at that time there was a real sense that, that Russia was just going to sweep through Eastern Ukraine and from the north because they amassed so many soldiers, so many tanks on the border and come at it from pretty substantially from three different directions. So there was a real sense that this was not going to take very long. Russia was going to just sweep through. And then I remember being there later on, just before the Ukrainian army pushed the Russians out of the Kyiv suburbs. And at that point there was a sense, oh, things are starting to turn here, maybe this was going to go longer, but I don't think anybody would have dreamed we'd be four plus years into this with no end in sight.
[05:14]
B
Well, as we look at it now, Marian and I Think that's a fairly common view. I think Vladimir Putin was probably not in the minority four and a bit years ago, but is he now? By which I guess I'm asking, dare we say that Ukraine might actually have the upper hand here.
[05:31]
A
I mean, they have been doing incredibly well, especially in the last few months. So something really seems to have shifted. And what I've been really impressed with is how many very sophisticated Ukrainian produced new types of weapons have been coming online. And if we contextualize that with a lot of European states also finding it increasingly difficult to get orders fulfilled from the US in huge part because the US lost so much of its own inventory in the Iran war and is now prioritizing restocking its own supplies rather than supplying allies. Ukraine is all of a sudden looking like a very serious defense player. And in fact, some Ukrainian factories have already started exporting some of their weaponry because they're finding that they're having to, because the Ukrainian armed forces are not necessarily purchasing from them at the volume that they need to keep things going. So that is quite interesting, especially as the Russian economy is not doing all that well and Russia has never been amazing at especially high tech weaponry. So I think this is a really interesting moment. At the same time, I want to be really, really careful here because I think the World War I anniversary is actually a very sad one. And part of the reason why Ukraine has had to be so innovative in this war and in how it's using drones and how it's been using sort of dual use technology is because it doesn't have the same sort of backup volume of soldiers ready to go to war that, that Russia can commandeer. And the sheer numbers of people that have died in this war is absolutely horrendous. And so, I mean, I still think that this is incredibly risky for Ukraine and for all of Europe. And how the war is going to end is still going to have such a big impact on the future of European security. So I don't necessarily want to overstate Ukraine doing well, but they are indeed doing very well at the moment.
[07:27]
C
Yeah, I get a bit worried about so much focus on the military side of this. You know, comparing the different armaments and comparing the different drones, that, and forgetting about the fact that the Ukrainian economy is in a terrible, terrible shape. Right. I mean, we can talk about the Russian economy struggling, but the Ukrainian economy is in really bad shape. And whenever I was there, it always struck me at how many people were out of work, how many people had seen their wages cut, how many people were just living day by day. And you think about the number of soldiers that the Russians have lost, which we kind of estimate, but Ukrainians aren't that far behind. They've lost an awful lot of people and in a much smaller population, they're facing problems with desertion, they're facing problems with leaving the country. They had this law for still in place, I guess, that men can't leave, men of a certain age, but many still do leave. So it's a very, very difficult place, I think, to live. And I think that sometimes gets lost in this talk about Ukraine's maybe turning the tide. Yes, but still, it's a very, very hard place for them to be in.
[08:20]
B
Just to pick up on one point there, Paul, does it seem, though likeliest, that if we look at this from Russia and Vladimir Putin's perspective, that they've just settled into thinking we can do this longer than Ukraine can?
[08:33]
C
Yeah, I think Putin doesn't really care about world opinion or anybody else. And I think he very much believes this is a war of attrition, that no matter what, he can put his country through all kinds of pain. And I think there's no doubt they're feeling the pain now, maybe more so than they have before. Maybe there's gonna be some internal coup or something in Russia like we saw before. But I think from Putin's mind, he's just gonna wait this out and wear truly believes, I think, or he has been told that he can wear Ukraine down. It's so much smaller population wise, it's suffering economically more than Russia. I think he's just going to wait it out, get through another winter, keep lobbing shells at Kyiv, and eventually he'll prevail.
[09:13]
B
I mean, is there still a danger, Marion? Because this is obviously the nightmare which has haunted the rest of Europe these last four years, that Putin in extremists or making no progress in Ukraine, feeling like his back's to the wall, et cetera, tries to up the ante. And everyone's familiar with the nightmare scenarios. You have Russia bite off a chunk of Estonia and or Latvia and then say, come on then, who wants to do World War 3 over this? Is that still a live possibility?
[09:41]
A
I actually didn't think that that was the direction you were going to go in. I thought you were going to say, is he going to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or as a demonstration strike. Interesting test for myself which one I would think is more likely. I don't think it's particularly likely that he would. Or basically open a second front with NATO while still engaged in Ukraine. I think that scenario becomes a lot more likely if you have some sort of a ceasefire or peace agreement and Russia then has some time to regroup and rearm. Because even though they've not necessarily been using all the kit that they would be using against NATO and Ukraine, I don't think that they are in a shape where they could take on NATO at this point in time. And even though Putin's information seems to have become very poor and he seems to have become even more isolated than he has been or than he already was in 2022 when he made this bad decision, I don't think that his decision making has deteriorated to the point where he would be delusional enough to think that he can take on NATO. I think the question about nuclear use is sort of in a similar boat, but slightly different. I could imagine if he feels that he personally is threatened, so not Russia as such, but his leadership is threatened, that that all of a sudden becomes like a much more attractive proposition as a sort of Hail Mary to save himself. But again, I think we quite far off that at the moment.
[11:04]
B
And just before we move off this one, Paul, if we look at it from Ukraine's perspective, do they have better options than they did maybe a year, certainly two years ago? Because everyone is still talking about what a possible settlement might look like and something that would be something that Ukraine would agree to, perhaps short of the maximalist demands that President Zelenskyy has always made, that is a complete restoration of the. The shape the country was in 1991. Do we get to a point, though, where the smart move for Ukraine would be to basically settle for some sort of partition for the moment, on the assumption that what we might think of as West Ukraine is absorbed into the EU and NATO, with the assumption that, as happened in Germany, East Ukraine will follow later?
[11:51]
C
Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to know what either side would claim as victory at this point. I don't even know what Putin wants anymore. First he wanted all of Ukraine. He wanted Kyiv, he wanted all of it. Now he wants Donbass. Does he want these five regions he's claimed they control? And it's hard to know where Zelenskyy goes from here because there really is a stalemate, right? I mean, because of drones, because of everything else, the front doesn't move very much either way. So does Zelensky just have to give up the land that Russia's already taken? Does Russia say we want more? I mean, it's very, very Hard to figure out who wants what out of this thing, but likely it's probably more on Zelenskyy's side to cut a deal at this point than Putin.
[12:26]
B
Well, here in the United Kingdom, meanwhile, there has been further rioting in Belfast and in the Grateful for Small Mercies department probably acknowledge our good fortune at living in a time when this is in fact news. The alleged reason for the violence, which has seen several homes and vehicles burned, is a knife attack which left its victim with dreadful injuries and for which a Sudanese man has been arrested and charged. The actual reason, it seems reasonable to assert, is that a cohort of hooligans have been licensed and encouraged by far right politicians and one particular foreign social media platform proprietor to wreak expedient mayhem. Marion it always strikes me when I see such events as these on television, or indeed as I have up close, that what gets often overlooked for one reason or another in the reporting is that everybody participating in the riot is enjoying themselves tremendously.
[13:20]
A
Yeah, I mean that's, that's an interesting point. I did see the profile of one of the rioters earlier today, which was someone with a lot of, you know, along history of minor crimes and some major crimes, you know, like the sort of standard hooligan profile of like previous previously known to the police, some sort of bar type violence, some domestic violence, some petty theft, you know, just someone who you wouldn't necessarily characterize as an upstanding citizen. And so it's, it's interesting to me that essentially we seem to have arrived at a point where you have a constituency like that in the UK that can be quite easily manipulated for violence. That's not necessarily a good place to be in as a society.
[14:13]
B
I mean, I think it's always been there to a certain extent or another, perhaps especially in Northern Ireland. PAUL but are you surprised by the cognitive dissonance that the far right politicians align themselves with this, are able to overcome in that they perennially state that they are standing up for the, the unheard, decent silent majority of these islands. And yet their most enthusiastic supporters, as Marion quite correctly pointed out, very frequently turn out to be probably not the kind of people they would be happy living next door to.
[14:47]
C
Yeah, or probably the kind of people that even vote. But I think you're right. I mean, I think Northern Ireland presents all kinds of complications in something like this because when you throw in paramilitaries and other kinds of, you know, forces that have been around there for a while that get mixed up in all, it gets really complicated and Difficult. But these kinds of demonstrations, these kinds of protests, this kind of violence isn't new, isn't certainly new to Northern Ireland. It's kind of been going on for a while across the uk we saw it last summer as well. And a lot of this stems from the whole issue with the small boats, these people coming across from Calais. That has been a flashpoint, even though the numbers are relatively minor, relatively small compared to, and getting smaller and getting smaller compared to overall immigration. I mean, I think there's only like 2,000 asylum seekers who've been settled in Northern Ireland. Anyway, when you look at the actual numbers, they're small. But that doesn't mean anything anymore. And we've certainly seen that in other countries, in Germany and Canada, anywhere you see that where the numbers are actually very, very small. When you try and talk to people about the sort of logic of this and the actual rational numbers and that kind of thing doesn't matter. Right. It's what happens in the us it's what happens everywhere. So I think that's what's happening here. And it's really hard to understand how this is going to play out and how this is going to ever go away.
[16:00]
B
Dare we hope, Marion, that this will, that is to say, an association between parties like Reform UK and Restore and scenes of this sort will backfire on them eventually? I mean, I know people hoped that wistfully, many, many times about President Trump's administration and actually have been wishing that fairly wistfully now for more than a decade, and yet it never quite seems to happen.
[16:25]
A
Gosh, I mean, I really hope so. Right. And what gives me hope is that ukip, which was sort of the precursor to all of this, and there have been so many right wing parties in the UK that essentially are around for a relatively short period of time and then flame out for some reason or another, and usually because they're actually terrible at governance. And so reform is now in a few local councils and by all accounts doing a terrible job. So I do hope that once people realize, which they may or may not, because even though local politics is incredibly important in the uk, it's also probably the type of politics that no one's paying any attention to. But if they do, then I think they will realize that the sort of pre election promises don't really match up with how governance is going once these parties are actually in power. But on the other hand, what I do find worrying is that Nigel Farage has managed to stick around as a sort of leader for that kind of movement. You Know, despite clearly previously having led Ukip and not having been very successful with that, and also, you know, having a very mixed record, that doesn't necessarily suggest that he has the best interest of the UK or the UK public at heart. And so, yeah, I. I think the governance record of those parties speaks for itself. But on the other hand, they have some charismatic figures that do seem to be able to galvanize people.
[17:48]
C
I think that's the key, because, you know, I was in Hungary for the recent election, and that's exactly what happened. You saw Orban just get swept from power. He was in for a long time. But what I was told then was, you know, look, these populist parties, when they're out of power, attract a lot of attention because they have a lot of simple solutions. But once they're actually in power, and admittedly, Orban was in for a long time, but even in other countries, we've seen this in the Netherlands and elsewhere, where these far right figures get into power, these populist figures get into power, and then they realize they're not very good at governing. And that's when the people say, okay, we've had enough of you. Right. And the backlash can be pretty swift. And to some extent, we're seeing that in the U.S. trump's approval ratings are plummeting. So I think that is something that these parties need to keep in mind. And they've all kind of been distancing themselves from Orban's party now, you know, a national rally and all these kinds of parties in Europe. But I think that's a real problem for them, that they really don't know how to govern.
[18:37]
B
All that said, Paul, is it clear to you why the US Administration is so keen to stick its oar in events such as this in the United Kingdom? And I have to say I did at least enjoy the US Homeland Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen saying of these demonstrators today that, and I quote, all they want is to be Irish. Tell us you've never been to East Belfast without telling us you've never been to East Belfast, et cetera, because Irish is pretty much the last thing they wish to be. But we have. We have heard Pete Hegseth teeing off at Normandy this week about the small boats, trying to draw some sort of bizarre analogy between Operation Overlord and the small boats crisis. JD Vance was very voluble on the subject of the recent murder of Henry Novak in Southampton. They have a point, I guess, in that certainly British politicians were not silent about the murder of George Floyd but what's in it for them? Why do they think this is a thing? It's not as if they don't have crime they could be dealing with at home.
[19:35]
C
I think a lot of this has to be viewed through the lens of politics in the US elections, future elections. And who's gonna stand for what? I mean, I don't think they really care at all about British politics. What they care about is appealing to that MAGA base. The folks are gonna decide who the next nominee is gonna be. That's certainly J.D. vance's mind. Maybe that's in Hegseth's mind. These people are positioning themselves for 2028, there's no doubt about it. So everything they talk about is with the view to keeping that coalition, keeping that group and inheriting Trump's mantle to some respect with that group of people. And that's really what this is all about.
[20:11]
A
And it's also such a corrosive type of narrative, right? I mean, on my recent US trip, I was speaking with a normally very reasonable friend who is not MAGA at all. And I was very seriously asked with a lot of concern whether there really was a massive, massive knife crime and sort of Sharia problem in London. And I was like, oh, my friend, you've really fallen for something here. It was quite difficult to explain.
[20:34]
B
Well, on that thought, Marion, and just finally on this, have we reached the point at which the government of the United Kingdom and the governments of other, you might think of broadly democratic countries just pull all their plugs? As far as Elon Musk's Platform X is concerned, should they, that is to say, keep. Keep promoting and raising clout and revenue for the platform of a foreign maniac who is trying to incite a race war.
[21:02]
A
I mean, I think it would be totally fair enough for European governments to ban or at least completely boycott X at this point, because there's no genuine policy exchange that happens on that platform anymore. But I fear that it goes beyond X. I mean, X is one of the worst offenders of spreading disinformation and just, you know, not. Not being helpful in that regard. But all social media plat have really moved away from sort of serious content moderation, trying to do something about disinformation generally. I worry actually, you know, for places like the UK or for many European places that have a significant number of older voters, Facebook has become a real cesspit of misinformation as well. So I think we're actually seeing the result of European governments generally just not really having a handle on how to deal with, with disinformation as a, as a challenge to society.
[21:57]
B
Well, to Mexico now, we're about an hour and a half from now. The 2026 World cup will kick off as Mexico play South Africa at the imaginatively renamed Mexico City Stadium in the imaginatively named Mexico City. The actual thud of boot on ball may come as something of a relief to organizers who have endured a torrid week or so of headlines about unsold tickets, larcenous concession stand prices, referees being sent home for being foreign and other difficulties which might, who knows, have been even worse had FIFA not taken the precaution of presenting US President Donald Trump with a large, ugly trophy that absolutely nobody takes seriously. Paul, as the one representative of a host nation at this table, how excited are you?
[22:42]
C
Oh, I mean, look, I'm always excited for the World cup, but I don't know how excited Canadians are because this is very much. Even though everybody thinks it's like a Canada, U.S. mexico World cup, it's not. It's a U.S. world cup cup. Canada, Mexico get 13 games each. The U.S. gets 78, plus all the quarterfinals, all the semifinals and the final. Of course, it's also a very strange mix of countries when it comes to soccer, football, Mexico, of course, it's number one sport. They're crazy about it. Canada, the U.S. they could care less about it really. So it's an odd mix. There's three different mascots. Each country has its own mascot, animals, of course, or birds in the case of the US So it's a very odd. They don't really work together, they don't market together, and politics is overriding all of this. And of course, all three countries are now kind of at loggerheads over a whole bunch of different issues. So it's a really odd World Cup.
[23:32]
B
Marion, what's it like being German when a World cup starts? Do you just make a cup of tea, put your feet up and anticipate victory?
[23:40]
A
Well, I mean, the German diaspora gets very excited. Right. I'm not a huge football fan, I have to say. Normally
[23:49]
B
you're one of the shameless every two or four year bandwagon jumper Turks.
[23:52]
A
That's exactly. Yes. All the, you know, German or German related WhatsApp groups that I'm in go absolutely crazy around this time. And I expect to be invited to a lot of different watch parties over the next few weeks. But yeah, I mean, Germany obviously hugely into the World cup. And yeah, I have to say I was really surprised how much people seem to be simply excited for another World cup, despite all of these challenges. Right. And I guess the German national team on German referees are not going to be as affected by the border restrictions as unfortunately some other people have been. But I would have expected Germans to be a little more, I think, perhaps self critical about their enjoyment of this World Cup.
[24:34]
B
Because on that thought, Paul, as you were discussing, this is a slightly strange arrangement. It's not the first World cup or international tournament to be spread across multiple countries. Certainly the European championships have done it before. But was this one predicated, do you think, possibly on relations between Mexico, the United States and Canada being somewhat more harmonious than they presently are? By which, when this was first mooted, was anybody worried about the possibility of one of the three countries threatening to invade or attack the other two?
[25:07]
C
I mean, yeah, we're annexing one of them. Yeah. I mean, I think that, you know, this is 2018 when this was announced and we had Justin Trudeau who was the prime minister, and 20 Trump was president at that time, obviously, and there was a different president in Mexico. But at that time relations were a little bit better. Trump was already kind of not liking Trudeau very much, but they really went off the rails obviously when Trump got reelected. And clearly, certainly from Canada's perspective, this whole talk of annexing and that has been very, very difficult. The animosity is really, really high. And Canada has no expectations in the World cup. When it comes to soccer, I mean, we've never won a game. We've only been there three times and we only, we get in this time for free, basically. And we've never won a game, only scored two goals, I think so. But we have a very good young team, I'm told. So I don't think, you know, if it was another sport, maybe if it was baseball. And of course we had a baseball team that did very well last year. Hockey, we do very well in. Canadians would really be fired up about this because we'd have a chance to win or at least do well. But I think when it comes to soccer, it's kind of like we don't really know what's going on. If we win a game, we'll be through. But yeah, the politics in this is very, very difficult. I think for that reason, Canadians are probably not. I've seen some polls showing people in Vancouver and Toronto, 70% of them are not keen on this at all. And I think part of that is reflective of the U.S. it's such a U.S. dominated event and Canadians attitudes towards the U.S. right now, certainly for the first time in my life, I've never seen them so low and people really, really disliking the US So I don't think there's a lot of enthusiasm for this in Canada beyond how the Canadians. But once they're out of it, no one will care.
[26:39]
B
Is it possible, Marion, that as Paul notes, obviously football, or soccer as Americans would call it, it's not a major preoccupation most of the time? Is it possible that for that reason this administration may be underestimating what a PR disaster this could be? Because the whole world will be watching? And if the whole thing is a shambles, and there are many reports which echo what you were saying about the empty plane of hotel bookings in host cities being far below what people expected, still a lot of unsold tickets. And that's before we get to the worries about logistics, overreach by ICE, etc. Etc. Etc. Could this go off quite badly in America's face?
[27:23]
A
Potentially, I think it could, but I'm not sure that it's something the administration is underestimating versus the administration may just simply not care. I don't get the sense that they are too concerned with the overall political perception of the US and if anything, I would imagine that President Trump is probably quite pleased because he's probably going to see it as his World cup since he originally negotiated with FIFA that it was meant to be in the United States. And I think, I mean, I, I, I think I feel particularly sorry for Mexico in all of this because as Paul pointed out, they are probably the most excited out of the three to be able to host the World cup as a real football nation. But I am also really surprised how much FIFA has bungled this because what I've heard about ticket prices, it sounds like they are absolutely insane. I mean, you know, in some cases in the hundreds and thousands for games that no one really would pay. Hundreds and thousands. Especially if you've already traveled from one of the other countries that really love football, you know, whether that's, whether that's Europe or South America or somewhere else where people are coming from significant distances at significant expense to then also have to shell out a grand for a ticket.
[28:36]
B
Well, just finally on this, I wanted to ask you both what you most look forward to about a World cup beyond how well or otherwise your team might do. Because obviously if we get onto that subject, Marion will just be insufferable and the rest of us, as a Canadian and Australian, really have nothing to contribute. Because for me, the thing I will ask you first, Paul because the thing I always enjoy most, most about a World cup is. And we've got an even bigger chance of it this year because the group stages are going to go on so much longer. There's usually at least one game in the group stages which between two teams, between two countries which have no apparent reason to dislike each other, but which nevertheless just descends into utter carnage. I actually have quite high hopes for Canada versus Bosnia.
[29:18]
C
Oh, wow. Good to hear.
[29:20]
B
Yeah, I can see that one getting rowdy.
[29:22]
C
I mean, I think you always look for the biggest. I think it was the last World cup was in Saudi Arabia, beat Argentina and then they went on to win it. So you always look for that kind of big upset because that causes such waves in the country where it wasn't supposed to happen and you've got to wait many days for the next game and maybe it's going to affect your group standing. So I think I always look for that. I always look for some small country to just take on a big country and beat them.
[29:42]
B
Well, there we go, Marion. So what you've got to go up against. Paul likes the heroic upset. I just like a punch up. What do you most look forward to?
[29:51]
A
I really like the atmosphere because I feel like both my native country, Germany, and my adopted country UK are both places where people normally really like a moan. You know, you wouldn't really describe Germans or Brits as particularly optimistic people, but in both countries, people are just in a better mood when the World cup is on and at least until they're
[30:11]
B
no longer in it.
[30:12]
A
That is true. Happens more often for England than it does for Germany.
[30:15]
B
Okay, there was no need for that.
[30:18]
A
Perhaps not if we're talking about the women's team. So, you know, I'll give them that. But yeah, I mean, generally, you know, people, it's a sort of. It's an event. People are really looking forward to it. There's a lot going on around it and I really enjoy that.
[30:31]
C
Yeah. Germany plays a game in Canada. So there you go.
[30:33]
A
That's right.
[30:33]
C
One of their games in Vancouver.
[30:35]
B
Paul Waldy and Marion Mesmer, thank you both for joining us. Finally and fittingly on today's show, our weekly letter from arrives from one of the World Cup's host cities. Here's Thomas Lewis, US.
[30:52]
D
When I first arrived in Toronto more than a decade ago, by this stage, someone described the city to me pretty early on as a pretty fantastic place to watch a World cup in. And that's because Toronto is one of the biggest cities in the world where more than Half the population was born somewhere else. So as the world gets ready to roll into town for this World Cup, a lot of the world is here already. So for me anyway, there's quite a nice symmetry to that, that Toronto is now a formal World cup host. And I think on an emotional level, the ties between the World cup and Toronto therefore do run pretty deep. I think it's back in 1982 that Italy won the tournament that year. And in celebration, they estimate between 300,000 and 5, 500,000 people, mostly from the Italian diaspora in the city, took to the streets, shut big chunks of the city down for days on end as they celebrated. And that's still quite a big chapter in the city's sort of collective memory, even all these years later. And we're starting to see little sort of glimpses of that kind of spirit over the past few days as well. It was on Sunday, I think, that Bosnia and Herzegovina, the national team, arrived in Toronto ahead of their opening game against Canada here in Toronto. And groups of Bosnian supporters had lined the highway with national flags and cheering and waving as the team made their way into the city. And that footage did gain quite a lot of traction here. I think little glimpses like that have really helped the sort of magic of the whole thing to set in after a build up that has, Frank, frankly, been pretty subdued. I think the excitement for the tournament in Toronto has taken a while to get off the ground for a few reasons, really. Canada isn't hosting that many of the 100 plus games being staged in this expanded tournament this time around. And also I think the way that the buildup has played out south of the border in the US in this fairly transactional corporate way with wrangells over ticket price prices and transport costs, I think some of that has spilled over into Canada as well. But to get a sense of what Toronto stands to gain from being a World cup city this time around, I spoke recently to Professor David Soberman of the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto. And this is some of what he had to say.
[33:15]
E
Canada for, you know, all of there's a lot of things we don't do well, but there's a lot of things we do do well. There's a lot of people that just come for the party, so that's a real positive thing for the city. The second thing is, I think it gets you on the map. People see Toronto and they see that it's a pretty fantastic city. It's extremely multicultural, it's clean, it's safe, it's got very different areas associated with the communities that have formed the city and they get a chance to experience that. There's also a lot to see here. So those are all positive things. You know, the theater is great and the music is great and the restaurants are really good and there's a lot to do. So the museums are great as well. So for sure there's that other dimension which is perhaps more qualitative, but that's one of the benefit of these types of events. To some degree, we've not optimized this opportunity, but at least we haven't missed it completely.
[34:18]
D
It'll be interesting to see the spirit of the city really as the matches get underway because a couple of years ago Toronto hosted the Pan American Games and those were a big success for the city. But I remember feeling at the time, if you weren't actually at some of those events, it would have been quite easy to miss the fact that the Americas had come to Toronto to compete in the Pan American Games that year year. So we have seen some efforts to try and counter that. The plaza in front of Toronto's famous City hall buildings, for example, a portion of that has been turned into a public football pitch. And it's been quite lovely seeing at all hours of the day and night actually groups of people taking a football with them and, and kicking that around in front of the two curving silhouettes of Toronto City Hall. And of course, the spirit of these things always check changes once the matches get underway and that magic starts to happen. And if the Canadian national team does well, which there is a good chance that they might go quite deep into the tournament, then Toronto, I'm sure will be very proud of the part it may have played in that. But to go back to a point I made earlier, there are so many countries represented in Toronto anyway outside of the World cup that somewhat will be cheering somewhere for some result that happens in Toronto or in one of the other host cities of this World cup this time around.
[35:43]
B
That was Thomas Lewis in Toronto. And that's all for this edition of the Monocle Daily. Thanks to our panelists today, Marion Mesmer and Paul Waldy. Today's show was produced by Nita Riota and researched by Josefina Astrad Nagla Gomez. Our sound engineer was Steph Chungu. Andrew Muller here in London. The Daily is back at the same time tomorrow. Thanks for listening,
[36:24]
A
Ra.