The Monocle Daily — “Do you believe in signs? The Year of the Horse gets under way”

Date: 16 February 2026
Host: Georgina Godwin
Guests: Chris Phillips (Professor, International Relations, author of Battleground: 10 Conflicts that Explain the Middle East), Rainbow Murray (Professor, Politics, Queen Mary University)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily takes listeners across key global political developments, including the first meeting of Donald Trump’s newly established “Board of Peace,” Europe’s wary engagement with this unconventional diplomatic body, and the political consequences of polarization in France. The show closes with a segment on astrology and the symbolism of the Year of the Horse, and an interview with Carlo Ratti, designer of the 2026 Winter Olympic torch.

Main Discussion Points & Key Insights

1. Academics on Power and Politics

[00:07–03:21]

• Both guests are professors in politics/international relations, discussing the crossover in their fields: “Ultimately, we are both scholars of power.” (Rainbow Murray, 02:13)

2. Trump’s “Board of Peace”: Ambitions, Structure, and Reception

[03:21–11:16]

What is the Board of Peace?

• Origins: Set up to oversee Trump’s 20-point peace plan following a ceasefire in Gaza (October 2025).
• Expansion: Trump now envisions the board as a broad, alternative peace forum, positioning himself at the center of global politics.
• Structure: Lacks institutional infrastructure; “It’s not really a rival to the United Nations.” (Chris Phillips, 04:38)
• Credibility Concerns: Trump is chairman for life with a veto—“Very much Trump’s vanity project... not a USA-led organization, it is a Trump-led organization.” (Rainbow Murray, 05:27)

$5 Billion Pledge to Gaza

• Amount proposed for reconstruction is “a drop in the ocean,” compared to the estimated $70 billion needed.
• Practical challenges: “There’s quite a big difference between pledging something and actually delivering it.” (Chris Phillips, 06:51)
• Underlying issues in Gaza remain unresolved, particularly the control by Hamas in areas outside Israeli influence.

3. Europe’s Tentative Engagement

[08:03–11:16]

• Most EU member states have declined full membership; Hungary and Bulgaria join as full members, Italy as observer.
• “They don’t want to give too much gravitas to this organization that they see as an attempt to undermine the UN.” (Rainbow Murray, 08:38)
• Europe wants a “voice in the room, not to be part of the process as such.” (09:41)
• Middle Eastern countries participate mainly to curry favor with Trump and respond to domestic pressure over Gaza.

4. US Election Meddling in Europe

[11:16–15:10]

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Hungary and Slovakia, openly supports Viktor Orban pre-election.
• “It’s an indication that all European states are equal, but some are more equal than others.” (Rainbow Murray, 12:55)
• The Trump administration’s strategy: openly supporting far-right/“like-minded” leaders while undermining supranational institutions, e.g. the EU.
• “As we move to this era of great power politics... other powerful actors will start using financial mechanisms or other forms of subterfuge.” (Chris Phillips, 14:37)

5. US-EU Relations Amid Trump Era

[15:10–16:53]

• Rubio’s Munich speech is both conciliatory and “slamming Europe” for issues like climate change.
• “European leaders came away... a little bit relieved... but still very wary of how far we can now trust the USA as a reliable ally.” (Rainbow Murray, 16:27)
• Iran criticizes Europe’s absence from nuclear talks—“The Iran file is no longer really at the top of their agenda.” (Chris Phillips, 17:15)

6. Polarization and Protest: The French Context

[18:06–23:55]

• Political violence in France escalates after a far-right activist’s death.
• “There is no love lost between the far left and far right... but this has normally been expressed through votes, verbal violence rather than physical violence.” (Rainbow Murray, 18:40)
• Responsibility of political leaders is called into question: “The era of populism... has really seen those boundaries shifted.” (Chris Phillips, 19:44)
• Need for consensus politics: “Countries that are able to remind people of what they share, what they have in common, is a good thing. But we are struggling at the moment in a world that is becoming increasingly polarized.” (Rainbow Murray, 22:40)

7. On Escalating Repression: Iran Perspective

[22:53–23:55]

• Iranian state violence against protesters is still traumatic to the population, not normalized.
• “When we have to really worry is when they’re no longer traumatized by it because it’s just so normal. And that’s the world we really don’t want to move towards.” (Chris Phillips, 23:38)

8. Astrology, Symbols, and Escapism in Volatile Times

[23:55–27:45]

• With Lunar New Year ushering in the Year of the Horse, the panel muses on why people turn to symbolic systems.
• Rainbow: “Horoscopes are hooey,” yet acknowledges the comfort and escapism they provide. (24:34)
• Chris jokes about sharing both Gemini (zodiac) and Year of the Dog (Chinese zodiac) with Trump—leading to lighthearted skepticism.
• Panel discusses which zodiac signs might (not) make good national leaders. “Probably not the Gemini... the twins. So... your evil twin comes out and hits the nuclear button.” (Chris Phillips, 26:59)
• The Year of the Horse as a metaphor fits a world where China is “able to gallop away” as Western alliances fracture. (Chris Phillips, 27:45)

9. Olympic Torch Design: Interview with Carlo Ratti

[29:43–34:18]

• Carlo Ratti describes getting the torch design job through a competitive process likened to a beauty contest.
• Design inspiration centers the flame, not just the torch: “We tried to focus on the flame... designed the minimum torch around that burner.” (Carlo Ratti, 31:45)
• Emphasis on teamwork, recycled aluminum, and reusability (torch can be used 10 times).
• Reflects both Italian design heritage and advanced technology—designed to withstand high-altitude winter conditions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Board of Peace:
  “He wants to have total power and total control... this is his way of trying to exert a level of influence that isn’t possible in genuine international organizations.”
  — Rainbow Murray [05:27]

• On European attitudes to the Board of Peace:
  “They don’t want to give too much gravitas to this organization that they see as an attempt to undermine the un.”
  — Rainbow Murray [08:38]

• On Hungary’s role:
  “It’s an indication that all European states are equal, but some are more equal than others.”
  — Rainbow Murray [12:55]

• On political violence and rhetoric:
  “You see this incredibly hostile environment coming out of the kind of language that right winger themselves have started... and it’s perhaps unsurprising that that has rebounded onto them.”
  — Chris Phillips [19:51]

• On polarization:
  “Countries that are able to remind people of what they share... is a good thing. But we are struggling... in a world that is becoming increasingly polarized.”
  — Rainbow Murray [22:40]

• On horoscopes:
  “Horoscopes are hooey... But I think what they offer is maybe a degree of escapism... I think people like to make jokes.”
  — Georgina Godwin [24:34]

• On astrological leadership:
  “Probably not the Gemini... your evil twin comes out and hits the nuclear button.”
  — Chris Phillips [26:59]

• On China and the Year of the Horse:
  “China is able to gallop away without facing the same level of scrutiny that perhaps it has done in the past.”
  — Chris Phillips [28:06]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:21] Explaining Trump’s Board of Peace
• [04:38] Board of Peace vs. UN
• [06:42] Gaza reconstruction, limitations of pledges
• [08:38] Europe’s cautious participation and reasons
• [11:46] US election influence tactics in Hungary
• [15:29] Rubio’s Munich speech: EU-USA relations
• [18:34] Polarization and violence in France
• [19:44] Rhetoric and responsibility for political violence
• [23:55] Astrology and the Year of the Horse discussion
• [29:43] Carlo Ratti on Olympic torch design

Tone and Language

The conversation is sharp, occasionally sardonic, rich with expertise yet accessible—even playful in lighter moments. Analysis is critical yet nuanced, maintaining Monocle’s conversational but authoritative style.

For Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

This episode offers a sophisticated, global perspective on current affairs: how new diplomatic architectures are challenging old alliances, the delicate act of European diplomacy amid Trump-era unpredictability, and the societal ramifications of deepening political polarization. The closing cultural segments reinforce the need for both critical scrutiny and a bit of escapism as the world gallops into an uncertain future.