Europe considers trade ‘bazooka’ against the US and Israel pushes back on Gaza ‘Board of Peace’

Summary

The Monocle Daily – January 19, 2026

Europe considers trade ‘bazooka’ against the US and Israel pushes back on Gaza ‘Board of Peace’

Host: Tom Edwards
Guests: Isabel Hilton, Somnath Bhatpial
Special Contributors: Andrew Muller (Nuuk, Greenland), Tyler Brûlé (Zurich), Carlotta Rebelo (Davos)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, the Monocle Daily team delves into a tumultuous set of global stories: Europe’s consideration of a trade “bazooka” in response to US actions, rising tensions over Greenland and Arctic geopolitics, the fallout of the post-WWII order, Israel’s pushback against the new US ‘Gaza Board of Peace,’ and major shifts in global economic stability as the World Economic Forum convenes in Davos. The program spans on-the-ground impressions from Greenland, high-level European perspectives, and insightful analysis on the shifting sands of international law, economics, and diplomacy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Greenland in the Geopolitical Spotlight

Field report from Andrew Muller in Nuuk

• Atmosphere in Nuuk: The city feels tense, amplified by visible security at both ends of the main flight route and an influx of international media.
  • “There are a lot of Greenlandic flags and posters saying ‘Greenland is not for sale’… at a protest at the weekend, about several thousand people turned up – and when only about 20,000 live in Nuuk, that’s half the capital.” (Andrew Muller, 04:04)
• Local Response: The sudden global attention is transforming community life and business in Nuuk, where half the population recently participated in anti-US protests.
• Economic & Social Impact: Andrew plans to visit retailers like BB Chemnitz, who have swiftly and stylishly incorporated protest motifs into local fashion, reflecting the intersection of politics and everyday life.
  • “It is like isolating a particular suburb of London or Paris and deciding this will be the crux of a great global crisis.” (Andrew Muller, 07:58)

2. Europe's "Trade Bazooka" & Transatlantic Relations

European Perspective from Tyler Brûlé in Zurich

• European Unity at Stake: European leaders feel the urgency of presenting a united front amid rising US pressure and policy divergence, a view echoed at gatherings even outside political spheres, such as Milan Fashion Week.
  • “This is a moment. If we do not stand up, who else… if our own ally can bulldoze us and shove us into a corner, what does that mean for everybody else?” (Tyler Brûlé, 05:46)
• Trump Era Volatility: Past assumptions that Trump would always "chicken out" are being questioned; few believe escalation will reach open conflict, but all sense deep distraction and risk from US unpredictability.

3. Arctic Resource Politics & Legal Complexity

Historical and Legal Context with Somnath Bhatpial & Isabel Hilton

• Ownership & Sovereignty: Reminder of Greenland’s legal status – belonging to Denmark (affirmed by international law in 1933), while the US retains military presence via a 1950s accord.
  • "There’s no justifiable reason, except perhaps land and minerals, which Trump would be wanting." (Somnath, 15:58)
• Repeated US Interest: US interest in Greenland is not new, but recent tensions and Trump’s unpredictable moves highlight the fragility of postwar legal orders.
  • “There’s a total breakdown of law and order post the Second World War. Whatever the Global North had set up, we see it at a precipice at this point of time.” (Somnath, 15:58)
• Chinese & Russian Arctic Ambitions: Although fears center on China and Russia’s Arctic designs, Isabel highlights that actual Chinese investment and presence in Greenland are negligible after US-Danish interventions.
  • "Actually, the Chinese don’t have a foothold in Greenland… The Americans got to hear of it and shut that down." (Isabel Hilton, 17:55)

4. The ‘Board of Peace’ and Israel’s Rejection

• Trump’s Board of Peace: The US proposes a “Gaza Board of Peace” to govern Gaza, inviting global figures (including Putin) and asking countries for billion-dollar contributions, sparking skepticism and ridicule.
  • “Putin on a Board of Peace is beyond parody, honestly.” (Isabel Hilton, 25:40)
  • “$1 billion and you’re there for life.” (Somnath, 27:02)
• Israel’s Objection: Israel opposes both the process and the candidates. Critique of the initiative focuses on the exclusion of Palestinian voices and the transactional, almost farcical nature of roles and funding.
  • “Not one Palestinian to decide. I mean, come on, this is the 21st century, not the 18th.” (Somnath, 27:23)
  • “Trump is a transactional figure. Most of his transactions were pretty rubbish.” (Isabel Hilton, 28:04)

5. Global Economy: Dollar Weakness & Flight to Gold

• Collapse of Dollar Dominance: Central banks are increasing gold reserves amid falling confidence in the US dollar, due in part to Trump’s interference with the Federal Reserve.
  • “Investors everywhere… want stability. Trump does not provide it.” (Somnath, 29:13)
  • “People start looking around thinking, well, gosh, we’re vulnerable. Did the UK ever imagine it would be threatened with tariffs by the United States for defending Denmark against the United States? Unimaginable. But it’s happened.” (Isabel Hilton, 30:42)
• China’s Position: The Chinese government is moving away from US treasuries and setting up alternatives for international trade, increasing use of local currency swaps, and preparing for possible reserve freezes.
• No Obvious Alternatives: While the dollar’s share of reserves has dropped notably, no strong alternative has yet emerged.

6. The World Economic Forum in Davos

Report from Carlotta Rebelo, On-Site

• Record Attendance: Momentum is unusually high, driven by the presence of Trump and the largest US delegation ever, alongside nearly 1,000 CEOs and 64 heads of state.
• Business and Political Blending: WEF’s value remains in convening both business leaders and country representatives; side meetings and informal contacts are seen as especially vital this year.
  • “I think that in the world as we are, given that the United States seems to be trying to destroy the United Nations and any other forum it doesn’t control, meetings like Davos will have a function….” (Isabel Hilton, 34:05)
• Controversial Guests: Putin’s envoy’s surprise attendance and the exclusion of Iran’s foreign minister highlight the ongoing diplomatic maneuvering.
  • “Everyone is seeing this as Russia essentially crashing the meeting between the US and Ukraine.” (Carlotta Rebelo, 37:26)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the scale of protest in Nuuk:
  “Half the capital turned up.”
  (Andrew Muller, 05:12)

• On European resolve:
  “If we do not stand up, then who else?”
  (Tyler Brûlé, 05:46)

• On the farcical nature of the Gaza Board of Peace:
  “Putin on a board of peace is beyond parody, honestly.”
  (Isabel Hilton, 25:40)

• On the transactional US approach to Gaza:
  “$1 billion and you’re there for life.”
  (Somnath, 27:02)

• On the fate of postwar order:
  “Whatever the global north had set up, we see it at a precipice at this point of time.”
  (Somnath, 15:58)

• On Russian interference and Trump:
  “The only place I can hear champagne corks popping at this whole ridiculous episode is Moscow.”
  (Isabel Hilton, 24:34)

• On the dollar vs. gold debate:
  “Pax Americana has collapsed, there’s global discord and thus you see investors rushing to safer havens.”
  (Somnath, 29:13)

• On the efficacy of Davos:
  “Davos, I’m a huge cynic. I’m an old school Marxist. So, no, nothing is going to come out of Davos.”
  (Somnath, 33:45)

• On maintaining diplomatic engagement:
  “We have to keep talking.”
  (Isabel Hilton, 34:05)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–05:12: Field report from Nuuk and scale of protest
• 05:46–07:30: Europe’s response and trade “bazooka”
• 15:58–21:53: Arctic legalities, US-Denmark-Greenland, China & Russia’s Arctic strategies
• 25:40–28:04: Gaza Board of Peace, international skepticism
• 29:13–33:14: Dollar, gold, global economic tremors
• 34:05–37:26: Davos, diplomacy, and a record-setting year
• 37:26–39:48: Russian envoy surprises, Iran excluded, final reflections

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Tone & Style

The conversation blends sharp reporting with dry wit and a world-weary realism about the perilous state of global order, consistently prodding at the logic (or illogic) of international developments. The panelists are candid, occasionally tongue-in-cheek, but return always to the necessity of scrutiny, skepticism, and dialogue.

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This episode is a compelling, globe-spanning tour through the day’s critical stories—illuminating the stakes, providing historical context, and never shying away from the absurdity sometimes found at the heart of world affairs.

Transcript

[A]

You're listening to the Monocle Daily, first broadcast on 19 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. What is going to happen to Greenland? Why is Israel pushing back on Trump's board of peace? Is loss of faith in the US dollar pushing central banks to stock up on gold? And what's on the agenda at the biggest ever World Economic Forum? I'm Tom Edwards, the Monocle Daily. Hello and a warm welcome to the Monocle Daily. Coming to you from our studio here at Midori House in London, I'm Tom Edwards. My guests today, Isabel Hilton and Somnath Bhattbial will discuss the day's big stories. And we'll be joined by Monocle colleagues around the world for the sharpest take from Davos, from Zurich and from Nuuk. Stay tuned. All that and more ahead here on the Monocle Daily. A very warm welcome to this Monday edition of the Monocle Daily. Now, your well trained ears may have noticed by now that I am not Andrew Muller. That is because he has been dispatched to Nuuk in Greenland from where I'm delighted to say he joins us now. Andrew Muller, good afternoon to you. How is Nuuk treating you.

[B]

Well so far? We arrived here earlier today on the Air Greenland service from Copenhagen. We are getting to know the city, which does, to be honest, isn't likely to take that long because it's really not very big. But it is. Yeah, absolutely. Well, it's brilliant to be here. This is a place I've wanted to visit for as long as I can remember. It's something of a shame about the circumstances, obviously.

[A]

Well, exactly, and we'll come to that, Andrew, in just one moment. Also joining us, lucky listeners, with the view from, well, I guess across the Datch region, perhaps our own Tyler Brulee on the line from Monocles Zurich hq. Good evening to you, Tyler.

[C]

Good evening, Tom.

[A]

Now, tell me, Andrew Miller's up there in Nuuk. I don't know if you. If you were heading Nuke woods yourself, Tyler, what would you be jotting down in your notebook on the way up there of things you wanted to see, people you wanted to meet? I don't know. What would you be prioritizing?

[C]

Well, listen, I would be prioritizing. Well, maybe we should rewind, Tom, because where did this all come from? Of course, you know, we know and as Andrew said, this is maybe not the best circumstances, of course, to, to be in the territory of Greenland, but I was flying back from Tokyo last week and we want to talk about sort of geopolitical issues, you Know, once upon you could come back from Zurich or from Tokyo, would take about 12 hours and now takes about 15 hours. And part of that is also that you do fly across the top of Greenland and you come down the east coast of the country to make your way back to the European continent. And that was when I was sort of looking down at that landmass last week. It was, I was thinking, okay, what are we doing in terms of mobilization? Should we be there and look at. And Andrew Mueller is there now also our foreign editor Lex Self is on the scene. But if I was sort of jotting down, actually I put it to our listeners, Tom, and this is, was in my column on Sunday. I asked listeners, I said, listen, we've got our crew heading out there, you send us your top questions. And so I think I forwarded a series of questions from our readers listeners to Andrew Mueller. Hopefully he's working away, hopefully he's finding the right guests because there's a lot of questions to be answered. So that, that is, that is sort of on the list tomorrow.

[A]

Okay, well, Andrew, I'm sure you're busy with your homework, but just tell me, I know you've only been there for a few short hours. Give us some first impressions, not just about, you know, what you've seen as you've strolled around the relatively small confines of Nuuk itself, but I don't know, mood on the ground from those initial exchanges. Do you get this sense of, you know, a population in that city particularly and then across the wider area who are sort of, I don't know, just a little bit on tent hooks as we all are looking in from the outside.

[B]

There's a few things which are odd, but I think possibly you notice they're odd if you're conditioned to look out for them. At both ends of the flight from Copenhagen and Nook, there were serious looking police folk with sniffer dogs. I don't know if that's a regular occurrence or whether they are actually concerned that coup plotters are trying to smuggle themselves in as tourists. As you walk around Nuuk, which as I've said is not an expansive megalopolis, it's very hard to trav appearing in the shot of at least half a dozen news networks as sort of reporters are doing standups on the street outside and there are a lot of Greenlandic flags and also hanging in a few shops, the posters saying Greenland is not for sale and various other things. I think some of those were put up during the protest at the weekend, which it's worth reflecting on, because on the one hand, it wasn't a very big protest, objectively, empirically, in a global sense, because it was estimated at about several thousand people. And then you remember that only about 20,000 people actually live in Nuuk. So half the capital turned up.

[A]

And Andrew, obviously we're gonna be hearing so much from you. We've got special programs, this show anchored from Nuuk over the next few days, which I'm sure your regular listeners will be relieved to hear. Tyler, let me come back to you and just get on the sort of European perspective. One of the great and fascinating narratives here is how Europe weighs up coordinates and calibrates its response. Lots of discussion about this trade bazooka today, which has for mind for me, what are you hearing, the conversations you're having? How confident are people that Europe is going to be able to put up a united front on this one?

[C]

Well, listen, it was a topic of conversation last night. We gathered in Milan, in fact, not for a geopolitical summit, but this is, of course, it is fashion week for menswear. So you could say, well, what does that have to do with anything? Well, of course, you have lots of entrepreneurs, you have lots of business owners, you have a lot of journalists. And of course they are also concerned about where things are going. And of course, we are very much in a European context. We are surrounded by Frenchmen and Italians and Swiss and Germans. And I think there is this sense of we have to, this is a moment. If we do not stand up, then who else? And again, if our own principal, one of our principal allies can bulldoze us and really sort of shove us into a corner, well, what does that mean for everybody else if, amongst friends, we cannot come up with some type of solution? So I think there is this sense that Europe has to find a way and it has to do so confidently as well. A lot of discussion maybe as well, about this notion of taco that Trump always chickens out. But maybe we've also seen that that's not entirely been the case. If that was maybe the old Trump, is he going to blink this time round or is he really going to dig his heels in? Now, listen, I don't think anyone thinks that we're going to, you know, reach a world of active conflict. But at the same time, I think a lot of people just look at just this level of distraction that has just come about, not out of nowhere. We knew it was coming down the track, but not that it would already be so lasting.

[A]

And Andrew Muller, if I can just come Back to you quickly in terms of the voices you're going to be trying to feature on the show, the sort of, I don't know, more slightly left field angles you're going to want to cover. Presumably you want to hear from, I don't know, people who are trying to run businesses on the ground in Nuuk who are involved in the way that Greenland showed its face to the world, whether that's in tourism, whether that's in commercial aviation. Are these some of the kinds of people you're hoping to catch up with in the next few days to get that real take of what's actually happening there?

[B]

Absolutely. All of that. In fact, as soon as we're done with this show, we are wandering a couple of blocks to the boutique of BB Chemnitz, the local fashion designer, who has made something of a motif of the Greenland is not for sale merch. They're speaking to us before they travel to Copenhagen and on for various fashion shows across Europe. And just having a brief look in their shop earlier, it's interesting to see how, how swiftly and really quite how stylishly they've incorporated some of that, you know, into their offering. I mean, I think obviously they're not silly. They understand that lots of media especially have come to Greenland in the last year or so, and I suspect this week more than ever. But, yeah, something I'm definitely interested in finding out is how it has affected this, you know, proverbially lonely and usually disregarded place to be suddenly the focus of the world's attention. And, you know, and again, bearing in mind this is just a few tens of thousands of people, it is like, you know, isolating a particular suburb of London or Paris and deciding that this will be the crux of a great global crisis. So, yeah, it has to have had an effect on life here and I'm very curious to find out what that effect is.

[A]

No incredible moment to be. To be there. Excited to reporting, Andrew, in the days ahead. Tyler, just to bounce back to you, you mentioned Milan. Look, I'm a huge winter sports fan. Was the city sort of gearing up, literally, metaphorically, for Milano, Cortina, the big Winter Olympic jamboree rolling into town. Was it all excitement around every corner?

[C]

Let's just stay on a sartorial note for a quick second. Hopefully Andrew Muller is still tuned in, because if he's on, he's already on sort of, you know, a bit of a retail hunt. He's. He's over to. To see BB Chemnitz. Andrew, can you please stop By a, a furrier because our Fiona Wilson, I bought her a pair of seal skin booties from Greenland. I bought them in Copenhagen. Tom and, and Andrew, completely worn out. She's really sort of, you know, use those. I think size 39 she'd be after. I'm probably a size 44 or 45. So I'm also in the market for a seal, a seal skin slipper, if you, if you can sort that out.

[B]

Tyler Weather, whether or not you are jesting. We did buy, we did go past a shop with an excellent line in seal skin wear earlier today.

[C]

So I am not, I am not kidding. I just, I just. Yeah, listen, I don't want your desires.

[B]

And your preferred sizes.

[C]

Yeah. And you can expense them, please as well. Andrew. Thank you for that. Tom, to your question, what are the remarkable things? Listen, we are, we are just, we are weeks away from the Olympics. And of course you will know we, we, we had quite a setup last time around in, in. And there was, of course, you know, you could go to, you could, you could have been in Paris in June of 2024. And there was a real sense that, that the Olympics were coming. Aside from all of the, the, the structures being built, the city being tidied up, everything. But there was just. There of course were lots of logos. Not just of course for, for the Paris Games itself, but of course, the five rings, et cetera. I was amazed. I took the train down from Zurich yesterday, arrived at Stazione Cecelia in Milan. I thought, okay, there would be all kinds of banners and this real sort of feeling that the Olympics are on the way. And of course, as we know, the Olympics are being co hosted between Milano and Cortina.

[D]

Tom.

[C]

Nothing like zero now. They said, okay, I should have gone over to the Duomo and there's some pavilions going up, et cetera. But even then I just thought as you went through the city, I didn't see any Olympic rings. I have no idea what the logo is. I don't know if there's a wacky mascot or not. None of it. Tom. So I believe they're coming. I think you're gonna be there on the 6th. I'm supposed to be doing an interview. Maybe. Tom, you can tell our listeners what's happening with the Olympics. I mean, we will be there. I just hope that there's gonna be some athletes.

[A]

Well, I was gonna say maybe we need the Monocle Roadshow, right. To get into town as it is in Nook Tyler and in Zurich, it will be in Milan. When we're there, people will know all about it. Tyler, stay with us just one second. Isabel Hilton, my guest in the studio, I think was itching. Was it when the mention of sealskin slippers as well.

[E]

Actually, I always say if we're putting in our retail orders, if I want a Greenland hat, which has the legend make America go away on it.

[A]

Okay. Andrew Muller, can you get one of those as well?

[B]

Absolutely. Noted. If I can find such a garment. Isabel, it's all yours.

[E]

Thank you, Andrew.

[A]

Well, look, just this quick detour. Tyler, look. Sadder news, but keeping it in garments. Well, actually the world of the impeccable couturiers, the passing of an incredible, epoch defining talent, Valentino Garavanni. Today, just while you're on the line, Tyler, tell us about this contribution to, you know, the business. Unmatched, really. Is that fair to say?

[C]

Yeah, unmatched. I think oftentimes, of course, we had, of course, the death of Giorgio Armani last year and people talked about the end of an era, that he was the last of his kind. I even argued then we still have to remember that Mr. Valentino, Mr. Garavani was still around at that point. And I think when we consider, yeah, I guess probably a special era, you know, the 70s, the 80s, the 90s of, you know, the extravagant show. Also when the show was not spectacle, it was still, you know, it was elegant, it was contained. When we're talking about a couturier, this, This I really believe is, is. Is. I hate to say it, but the proper sort of end. End of an era. When we think about the jet set lifestyle, you know, the plane waiting on the Runway in Paris after the show, heading out to Le Bourget, a cavalcade of small dogs and handsome young gentlemen. All of these things that was the world of Valentino. A gentleman I met a number of times, oftentimes maybe at the far end of a table at an amazing dinner. But there was really this court of Valentino and remarkable in terms, of course, yeah, what he was able to deliver. Not just, of course to. For people to be. For things to sit on people's shoulders or on their hips or wherever it may be, but also a fragrance business that was built and really a proper brand as well, but as you said, died at the age of 93. Just looking at, of course, the press release is now already. Services already starting. He'll be lying in state from, from the end of this week, in fact. So this is moved very, very quickly and. And of course, just a release only out within the last two hours.

[A]

Well, Tyler, I think you might be getting some more reflections from you in our programming over the day ahead. I think you might be popping up on the Globe list. Maybe some more reflections on on the life of Valentino. Thanks so much for joining us from Zurich. Go. Well, Andrew Muller, just a final quick thought. So people can join you for the Daily tomorrow, but we'll be hearing from you and reading your insights across the Monocle output right online in our brilliant newsletters and of course, on our radio shows. Correct.

[B]

All of that and more besides, I suspect. But yes, the Daily this Time Tomorrow will be somehow live from Nuke, as on Wednesday and Thursday, and yes, more besides on the Globalist and the Briefing and in our newsletters.

[A]

Well, Andrew, listen, take care. Go well, keep yourself warm and find the best spots in town, the hot spots, I guess literally and metaphorically, that's our Andrew Muller. More from him in Nuke. But we are back in the studio here in London. My excellent and esteemed guests, Isabel Hilton and Sonath Baby, we are here. Sonoth. Let me just jump in on that. Somewhere back there, some reflections on what's happening on the ground in Nuuk. Look, crazy times, crazy dynamics. What have you made over the last few days? We've obviously got the threat of tariffs. We've got this European response as muted as it might have been. We've got this bazooka. Is it being wielded? I've got to get your take.

[D]

You know, just to take it back a step. Three things I wanted to quickly mention especially for our listeners. We've moved so far ahead in the story so quickly. First, Denmark has complete territorial claim over Greenland and the US has forfeited its right to that land in 1916. In 1933, the Permanent Court of International justice accepted that. And there was a kind of Denmark gave up some territory in the Caribbean and, and this was agreed. Second, Greenland has a right to decide its form of government and in a recent vote, it has clearly chosen to stay with Denmark. Third, the U.S. which has been talking about threats from China and Russia in the 1950s, they have signed an accord which allows them to have enough military presence in Greenland. So there's no justifiable reason, except perhaps land and minerals, which Trump would be wanting. So in this scenario, I mean, there's a. Isabella and I, we were talking before the show that there's a total breakdown of law and order post the Second World War. Whatever the Global north had set up, we see it at a precipice at this point. Of time. I don't know what's going on on ground in Nokia and Greenland, but these are strange times.

[A]

I think that could be the understatement of 2026. Isabelle. Look, this is a place that you know actually fairly well. You've been there yourself I believe so I haven't been to Greenland. Yeah. Tell me a little bit about, you know we are talking as we have been over recent months about the effective collapse of the post war consensual rules based order as Somnath has explained there. But I guess in the sort of shorter term how do we make sense of what we're seeing and hearing particularly from D.C. at the moment?

[E]

Well, I was talking to Greenlandic friend last week who said I strongly advise you not to seek logic in Trump's position or you will go mad. And I sympathize with that. We can make sense of the repercussions, we can't make sense of the action. As often with Trump there is a germ of truth in all of this which is that Russia and China have designs on the Arctic. Yes. Why do they have designs on the Arctic? Because of climate change which Donald Trump says is over hoax. So first, first problem but I think everyone but Donald Trump accepts that there is climate change and the ice is melting and there is a history of you know, China wants, we know the northern, we wants to travel the northern sea route because it saves money and time. It also the northern building an effective northern sea route requires building ports and facilities and things that China is good at building. Russia needs China because it needs the investment and that capacity. China needs Russia because China has is a self decl near Arctic state but it doesn't have a legal right to be in the Arctic except through the partnership with Russia. So that's a symbiotic relationship. Greenland. About 10 years ago China made some moves on Greenland which included bidding for the contracts for the three airports which have been rebuilt. Now the Greenlanders had been begging the Danes to invest to finance the building of the airports. The Danes had said broke no, it's not going to happen. So they went to Beijing and Beijing said yes, how many would you like? And you know, of course we'll build them for you and we'll finance it. The Americans got to hear of it and shut that down. Equally the Danes had a disused naval base that they were going to sell off until there was a bid from a Hong Kong company and that got shut down. So actually the Chinese don't have a foothold in Greenland. They had an Agreement with an Australian mining company for something in the north of Greenland, but that has gone away as well. There is no active investment in mining. Now you mentioned rare earths and strategic. Yes, in theory, Greenland has a lot of those. Again, the Greenlandic prime minister was in Washington last week, last year, sorry, begging for investment from the Americans and nobody came. I mean, there are very meager. There's a very meager interest from the United States in the mineral potential of Greenland for lots of reasons. It's very hard to get investment in the Arctic. Everything you do in the Arctic is harder and more expensive. Greenland has very little infrastructure, it has no unemployment. So you have to import the workforce. And you know, we all know with rare earths and strategic minerals that it's all about the concentrations and the ease of access. That's what makes it, you know, viable as a commercial proposition. So even if you think that this is a kind of El Dorado for strategic minerals, again, they've had the opportunity, they've looked at it, said we can go somewhere easier and more profitable in the meantime. But all of this is having an effect on Greenlandic politics. And in all this we forget that Greenlanders have politics too, and they're all pretty much pro independence from Denmark. But the question of the speed of independence and how it's achieved is what determines who wins elections. And of course the Trump effect has got the Moderates in power. We have, as opposed to the rapid independence people. So we have a very moderate, sensible government at the moment with a very young prime minister who is, you know, finds himself in the middle of this insane storm. But hitherto until then had been doing his best again to get American interests and American investment in Greenland without a lot of luck. So it's. It, none of it makes sense. But, but I think we should hear more from Greenlandic politicians in this whole.

[A]

Argument, which hopefully we will do indeed in the days ahead. It's interesting, just maybe a final thought on this, that idea of, of having designs on territorial advance, whether it's resource, whether it's access, whether it's more efficient transport and infrastructure routings across the north of the planet. Sure, you need to have ambition, you need to build, but you also need to build partnerships. And the thing I find truly astonishing, if we go back to your quick historical summary, Somnath, you know, a NATO member politely requesting another NATO member to of cool the hostile talk. I know we keep tracking this collapse of that post World War II order, but that is just something I don't know. I don't know, maybe I'm too naive. Maybe. Should we have been expecting to hear.

[D]

No, I mean, really not. I mean, the consensus, you know, the economic consensus, the political consensus was that this will never happen again. And we will talk about Bretton woods and the gold in a bit. What's happening in Gaza, this and the world system, I mean, the Western world system has become, you know, Arundhati Roy was saying this the other day that what has probably happened is that the nature of democracy, the Western democracy has become very shaky because most citizens in their countries wouldn't want the things that is going on right in America or in the UK or in many parts of the world. But we are unable to have institutions which can protect our interests. So this agreement that we had with the state that is probably collapsing.

[A]

I mean, this is some heavy duty high fiber stuff for a Monday evening.

[E]

Could I just. One last thought on Greenland and whose interest this really serves. It clearly doesn't serve the United States interests. It doesn't serve NATO's interest. I can think of one man who's rubbing his hands in glee at this turn of events. And I would remind you that in 2019, Senator Tom Cotton, who is a right wing Trumpy senator from Arkansas, a letter was circulated online from the Greenlandic foreign minister to Tom Cotton saying, please, you know, could you give us more money to organize the referendum on Greenland so that we can enter into a new arrangement with the United States. This letter was a forgery. This the Danish intelligence services concluded that it was a forgery which originated in MoSC. The only place I can hear champagne corks popping at this whole ridiculous episode is Moscow.

[A]

We may.

[D]

Tom, may I come in on this one again? And this is slightly tongue in cheek again. Isabella and I were having this chat. That wild conspiracy theory doesn't seem wild anymore that Trump probably is a sleeper agent of Moscow. This entire situation cannot.

[A]

I mean, is he asleep? He seems pretty active. There you go.

[D]

Well, that's your tongue in cheek.

[A]

Let's talk about a couple of these things because I think there is this thread, of course, that's going to run through a couple of the other topics we mentioned at the top of the show. Trump, of course, is going to Davos, the biggest ever, where we're going to be hearing from our Colleta there a little bit later. But it's the largest US delegation, which I guess in some ways at least they're going somewhere where talking happens. I don't know, looking on the positive side, but let's take a look at a Couple of these examples, Sonathi just alluded to one where his policies are are changing the landscape. At the weekend the United States announced this Gaza Board of Peace. Trump's picks for who will temporarily run Gaza. Israel's pushed back. The Kremlin has said that Putin. Oh, we just mentioned him. Has been invited to join. That's not been stood up or not. What do you make of this, Isabelle?

[E]

I mean, Putin on a board of peace is beyond parody, honestly.

[D]

Trump heading it, Trump for life.

[E]

This whole kind of phase two is getting totally out of control. So the Board of Peace, which is allegedly this, I mean, it seems to be getting bigger and bigger and bigger and seems to be a mini United nations. The Gaza Executive Board, which seems to be supposed to be doing the work, and then there's a founding executive board which includes Krishna and Blair. Frankly, I'm confused already and I doubt that anyone involved in this process is any less confused. Well, how is any of this going to work? Is there any serious executive authority? Is there any serious, serious plan? There are some serious people, but we know that none of this will work unless the United States really puts some serious and not stupid effort into it. Israel is going to object to everything because Israel doesn't really want a phase two. And to have Putin on board just keeps us all looking the other way.

[A]

And Sonoth, it's interesting because some people have said, look, Trump, in a way his this sort of rampant transactionalism seems to on occasion have actually delivered some political outcomes, not all of which are terrible. And they're talking about countries need to contribute X billions of dollars to sort of get a spot on the board of peace.

[D]

Yeah, $1 billion and you're there for life.

[E]

And we totally trust Trump to spend it wisely, don't we?

[D]

60 countries have been invited. So 45 pays up $45 billion. I mean, it's beyond the pain.

[A]

And this isn't one where taking a ruthlessly transactional approach counterintuitively could actually give a better outcome.

[D]

It wouldn't. And look, morally, this is so wrong, not one Palestinian to decide. I mean, come on, this is 21st century, not the 18th. You know, you don't go into a country, say queen, and you know, God has sent us not one Palestinian and for that matter, only one Israeli businessman has been asked, say it seems bizarre. And Tony Blair's statement is, I need to read this out aloud. It gives hope to people in Gaza that they can have a future different from the past. He's from the past. And to the Israelis, that They may have a neighbor which does not threaten its security. Really?

[A]

Are we filing that squarely in wishful thinking folder?

[E]

I think we are. And you know the talk of Trump as a transactional figure, if you look at his business record, he's a serial bankrupt who is notorious for not paying his contractors and, you know, and sailing very close to the wind. If not, you know, beyond it. Yeah, he's a transactional figure. Most of his transactions were pretty rubbish.

[A]

Well, this leads us elegantly onto the next story I want to talk about a little bit, which is exactly as he styled himself as this sort of beacon for growth for the US at least he's pretty explicit about that. But if we look at what tariffs are doing, if we look at the dollar, longer linchpin of the global economy, it's under a bit of pressure and lots of central banks are turning to gold as a security instead of the dollar. We've seen that, of course, in gold market. Incredible performance over the last couple of years. Is this somnath, though, again, is it a consequence of Trump's sometimes erratic, always erratic policymaking and particularly his interference with the Fed trying to push criminal sanction against Fed chair Jay Powell, et cetera, et cetera, that we're going to see this kind of economic consequence?

[D]

Yeah, I mean, look, investors everywhere, private and sovereign, want stability. Trump does not provide it. The interference with the Fed, as you said, direct interference in monetary policy, that's not going to go down well with investors worldwide. And so you see the slump then. Pax American has collapsed, there's a global discord and thus you see investors rushing to safer haven't. And also, I mean, before Bretton woods, gold was the one which we always pegged our currency to. This is quite a dollar is new, 1970s, everything was broken down post Reagan and now you're seeing it. I mean, look, and I do not want to overstate the case because there is not too many alternatives to the dollar at the moment. So it's gone down from what, 56% to about 48. So 6% is huge. Taken that. But there are no big alternatives except going back to gold. So we don't want to overstate the case, but there is a definite movement away and the global investors are shaky about how secure the dollar is today and whether the investments are secure.

[A]

What about the view from Beijing though? That's quite interesting because if we think about China's ambitions when it comes to the UN for example, what would be the take there if they see the dollar? I don't know, weakening. Maybe it's a portent of something more significantly welcomed.

[E]

I think there are a number of aspects to this. I mean, the Chinese have been. The Chinese were one of the biggest holders of U.S. treasury, and they have been reducing their share. They're still big, but I think the biggest is still Japan, then it's China, then it's the uk Actually, we hold a lot of US treasury now. If people stop holding US treasury, if they find something else, then interest rates will skyrocket, the US won't be able to finance its debt, so it'll have to raise interest rates and everything begins to get worse in the global economy. The other thing that the Chinese have been trying to do for quite some time now is to de risk the power of the dollar. And that has a number of aspects. It's been setting up a number of alternative ways of doing international trade because, again, the dollar was the main vehicle trade because, you know, it was easy and it was dependable. But if the dollar's going to go up and down, that's one thing, but it's also a matter of power. So the Chinese have been doing increasing numbers of straight currency swaps within bilateral trade through the BRICs. They have set up an alternative to Swift, which is small, but it has the potential to grow. They're doing a huge amount of bilateral trade with Russia in rubles and rm, and they are beginning to kind of dismantle the obstacles to trading in local currencies, which are, you know, if we do a deal in our respective currencies, I then get a lot of renminbi, which I have to spend in China, whereas if I get paid in dollars, I can do anything with that money. So there are issues around this, and it's still relatively small, but it's growing. And the other aspect is that it means that, you know, if you get on the wrong side of the United States, it limits the kind of measures United States can take against you on the trade front and the currency front. And I think they're also looking at the threat of reserves held elsewhere being frozen again in the event of a conflict. So people are beginning to de risk. And that's one of the effects of destroying trust in the global system, which the Trump administration has done. People start looking around thinking, well, gosh, we're vulnerable. Did the UK ever imagine it would be threatened with tariffs by the United States for defending Denmark against the United States? Unimaginable. But it's happened. So everybody is looking to de risk.

[A]

At this point, we are going to Be crossing to Davos in just a minute to talk to my colleague Carlotta Rubello. Just a quick thought on the World Economic Forum, so I'm going to start with you. Do you have any optimism that we might hear some good old fashioned common sense this week? Mr. Trump's there on, on Wednesday, I believe, but it's an incredible array, I think 64 heads of state, almost 1,000 CEOs of really significant players. Might we get some good proactive fixes even to some of these slightly scary structural problems?

[D]

I'm a huge cynic of Davos. I'm an old school Marxist, so I'm the last person you should ask. Now I'm going to pass on this one. I'm a vulgar Marxist, so no, nothing is going to come out of Davos. Davos hasn't.

[A]

You should have been the last, but you were the first I passed. Can you give me anything? Give me some rays of.

[E]

In a rare upside moment, I think actually I thought last year we'd reached peak Davos, that it was becoming rather irrelevant. But the attendance this year is quite something. And I think that in the world as we are, given that the United States seems to be trying to destroy the United nations in any other forum that it doesn't control, that actually meetings like Davos will have a function because they're just places you can meet. Whether whether or not, you know, this expression of global capitalism comes up with solutions is almost not the point. It's the side meetings. It's the fact that Trump is there, that everyone is going to be there, that they will find ways to talk. I think that that matters. We have to keep talking.

[A]

Well, let's bring in our Carlotta Rebelo who's in Davos up at the World Economic Forum for us. I don't know. Carlotta, what is this, your fourth or fifth trip up there? I'm not sure what you're up.

[F]

I think it's the sixth one actually. But one of them doesn't really count because it was the pandemic one in the summer. So without snow, is it really a real one?

[A]

Well, listen, look, that's an interesting point, isn't it, Carlotta, that Isabel makes very eloquently there that, you know, whatever else is going on, however tumultuous and volatile things are, we must preserve the capacity to get together, to meet, to talk, to try and be constructive. What's the mood on the ground? You've already been up there for a couple of days. What are people talking about? Is there a little bit of cautious optimism around.

[F]

Maybe a slight hint of cautious optimism, Tom. But what I can say for sure is that I can't remember an addition where the Monday has been so busy. Usually Monday is the day that everyone slowly rolls into town, you start seeing the cameras getting settled, set up, still some finishing touches to some of the houses, but not this year. Some of the houses already had full programs going on today with sessions and panels. And last night when we arrived to try to set up, you know, a bit earlier, we felt like we were arriving just with everyone else. So really, there's a bit of momentum behind this edition to get things in place and things going from the very beginning. Now, we have mentioned, of course, the attendance of Donald Trump and this largest US Delegation ever, and credit where credit is due, because I think that is part of why there's so much focus and so many people drawn to this year's edition of the annual meeting. There are other forums, as we know, where top leaders and premiers come together and discuss. But what still makes Davos quite interesting is, I think, bringing in the private sector and citizens as well, but the private sector in into some of these conversations. I think that's still what gives it the edge. And having more business leaders here, this edition, too, might be what actually helps to try to get some outcome out of this week.

[A]

Somnath. More business leaders. Does that not. Does that bring you. Does that lure you back from the edge?

[D]

Did you hear that? A hint of skepticism, cynicism, maybe. Hope, even. Even your correspondent doesn't believe there's going much going on.

[A]

No, no, she's up, she's optimistic. And listen, Carlotta, just on that point about who is that and who isn't there, some interesting things that I've noted. Putin's special envoy will be there, we think, but the Iranian foreign minister won't be there. There's a couple of interesting ones. People have been talking about that.

[F]

Yes, super interesting. There was confirmation that Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy, will attend Davos. This came through today via the Kremlin and then with confirmation from the World Economic Forum. Now, everyone is seeing this as Russia essentially crashing the meeting between the US And Ukraine. It's been widely expected that Zelensky and Trump will meet at some point on Wednesday, and they're expected to sign new security guarantees for a potential ceasefire deal with Russia. So it seems almost like Dmitriev is trying to arrive before that, and his decision to show up last minute seems to be to disrupt that. Now, there's another element here as well, which is that what makes this trip even more surprising, surprising is that WEF has stopped all the formal ties it had with Russian entities in person since March 2022, when essentially the war in Ukraine began. And no Russian officials or businesses have been to the annual meeting in Davos ever since. And you know, just next month we are approaching indeed that four year anniversary, so the timing of it is quite interesting. And yes, in. In the last few hours today as well, it was confirmed that WEF has banned Iran's foreign minister from attending. He was due to speak on a one on one session tomorrow at lunchtime. So now that won't be happening.

[A]

Thank you very much indeed, Carlotta. And just remind us you're hosting live shows from there. The Briefing over the next three days, you would invite our listeners to keep their appointment, their lunchtime appointment with you if they're on the European time zone.

[F]

Absolutely. From 1300 Davos time, midday in London. We'll be hosting the briefing Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday from here. And of course throughout the rest of the programs. Expect not just check ins from the snowy mountains, but a few of the interviews too. I don't think it's going to be a quiet week.

[A]

Another understatement. Carlota is our senior correspondent. She'll be up at Davos all week. Carlota, thank you. And just to bring my panelists back for a final reflection, Isabella, it was quite funny when Carlota mentioned Putin's envoy there. I don't know, what can I say? A sort of awry look passed over your face. Can you explain to our listeners the thought that was in your mind at that moment?

[E]

I just had the image of him flying in to tug the leash of the American Prime President and remind him not to stray too far off course.

[A]

Somnath, last chance is that one year round.

[D]

No, I think we should end on.

[A]

Oh, you're happy with that?

[D]

Yeah, yeah, very happy. That's a good image tugging.

[A]

I love it. That is. The excellent insights as always of Somnath Bhatpial and Isabel Hilton. My thanks to both of our Daily guests. Thanks to Carlota Rebelo, to Tyler Bradley and to Andrew Muller. Do listen out for all of these special programs coming this week on Monocle Radio. That is your lot though, from this jam packed Monday edition of the Daily, which was produced by Angelica Jobson and researched by Anneliese Maynard. Our sound engineer was Elliot Greenfield. My thanks to them one and all. I'm Tom Edwards here in London. We'll be back at the same time tomorrow. Andrew Muller in the chair in Nuuk, Greenland. Don't miss it. This is the monocle day.