The Monocle Daily — Europe Scrambles to Respond After Trump’s Greenland Threats

Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Chris Chermak
Guests: Isabel Hilton (China Dialogue, King’s College London), Philippe Marliere (UCL)
Special Feature: Interview with Director Tamara Kotevska on “The Tale of Siljan”

Episode Overview

This episode explores an extraordinary day in global politics as the US, under President Trump, makes aggressive moves: seizing a Russian oil tanker, threatening action in Venezuela, and, most shockingly, making overt threats toward Greenland—a move that prompts European leaders to scramble for a coherent response and raises existential questions about the future of NATO and the EU’s strategic autonomy. The conversation then turns to Italy’s controversial electoral reforms, and finally lightens up with a segment on South Korea’s approach to hair loss as a public health issue. The episode closes with a feature interview on “The Tale of Siljan,” a Balkan folk documentary.

Main Themes and Discussion Points

1. U.S. Aggression and the Greenland Threat

Segment: [02:12–09:42]

• Key Events Covered:

  • U.S. seizes Russian oil tanker, threatens Venezuela and Greenland, demanding European support.
  • The reality of the U.S. threatening a European territory (Greenland, part of Denmark and thus, a NATO and EU asset) pushes Europe’s security institutions to the brink.

• Philippe Marliere’s Reaction:

  "It takes probably a real threat to a European territory... to probably get their act together and try to put together a kind of response. ...Until now, Europe has been pretty... [the] reaction has been pretty weak." [03:13]

  • Europe’s response is viewed as “muted” but urgent, with France leading diplomatic efforts.
  • Europe’s dependency on the U.S., especially for defense/NATO, is highlighted as a source of vulnerability.

• Isabel Hilton’s Analysis:

  “Anything that damages Europe and NATO is to China's advantage. So, you know, Donald Trump is doing a lot of heavy lifting for both Putin and Xi Jinping here.” [05:09]

  • U.S. bases in Greenland are longstanding; threatening occupation makes “absolutely no sense” since cooperation is possible.
  • Europe is facing strategic destabilization, questioning whether it can trust the US as an ally.

  "We’re locked in because of decades of post-war trust, and when somebody breaks that, it’s going to take a while to get a coherent response." [06:45]

• NATO & EU Implications:

  • The Danish PM says NATO would be “over” if the U.S. invaded Greenland.
  • EU wasn’t designed as a military actor—NATO’s potential collapse forces Europe to consider defense autonomy (“EU plus UK”) but that will take years.

  "If NATO is now irrelevant, yes, the EU has to do something." —Philippe [09:42]

2. Latin America: China, Russia, and European Interests

Segment: [09:42–18:36]

• US Oil Embargo and Seizing of Oil Tankers:

  • The US threatens China’s interests in Venezuela and Latin America.

• Isabel Hilton on China’s Perspective:

  "It would take a lot of work to kick China out of Latin America... The oil supply is completely irrelevant... It’s a very small proportion of China’s supply... The issue for China is not oil, but outstanding loans." [10:25–12:46]

  • China’s economic and diplomatic presence is deep, and it views US actions with skepticism, but is unlikely to be deeply threatened by oil moves.

  • Risks are highest for China’s fixed asset investments (e.g., ports in Peru, satellite programs)—not oil.

• Impact on Europe’s Ties to Latin America:

  • Europe has largely deferred to the US (“Monroe Doctrine effect”); only Spain has shown consistent interest.
  • The fate of the Mercosur–EU trade deal hangs in the balance; France is now a minority voice in opposition.

  “In general, what is quite significant is that Europe has taken, with probably the exception of Spain... little interest in what goes on in Latin America. And that’s probably one of the clear effects of the Monroe Doctrine.” —Philippe [14:49]

• Sphere of Influence:

  “If Trump is really proposing or imagining that he can be entirely comfortable in the Western hemisphere and China can dominate Asia, he’s made a typically bad barcode.” —Isabel [18:16]

3. Italian Electoral Reform and Democratic Dysfunction

Segment: [18:36–26:49]

• Issue:

  • Italian PM Giorgia Meloni tries to reform electoral law to advantage her party.
  • Parallels in the US (gerrymandering) and UK (rigid first-past-the-post system) show a trend of political manipulation for power retention.

• Philippe Marliere:

  “It’s never a good idea to change electoral law for the sole purpose of winning or not losing an election... If you don’t have the kind of political culture which goes along with it... it won’t work.” [19:31–21:46]

• Isabel Hilton:

  “The last time that the UK had a government for which the majority of voters actually voted was 1922, and that was because it was a coalition.” [22:40]

  • Both warn that without a culture of compromise, reforms like proportional representation can backfire.

• Declining Faith in Democratic Systems:

  • Disconnected electorates, fragmentation, and declining faith in institutions.

  “Now, if you want to vote your interest, you’re scratching your head. ...This kind of fragmentation of politics...is quite dangerous.” —Isabel [22:38]

4. South Korea’s New Scourge: Hair Loss

Segment: [27:42–31:36]

• Topical Levity:

  • South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung proposes covering hair loss treatments under health care.
  • All panelists have full heads of hair (“we're all the wrong people to be discussing this” [28:49]), but recognize the cultural weight.

• Isabel Hilton:

  "In South Korea, this is all a ploy... I think they’re just trying to pretend they’re all much younger than they are." [29:20]

  • Notes the link of aging and image in Korea, and the trend of politicians dyeing hair (as in China).

• Philippe Marliere:

  “If you start with that, how many other cosmetic issues will you have to address to satisfy the public? It’s endless.” [29:46]

  • Suggests that while hair loss is distressing, covering it medically opens a potential can of worms for cosmetic medical coverage.

• On Preferable Funding:

  "He should cheer up the population by just funding the arts." —Isabel
  "I couldn’t agree more. I fully back that." —Philippe [31:11–31:36]

5. The Tale of Siljan: Documentary Spotlight

Segment: [32:22–38:38]

• Joanna Moser interviews Tamara Kotevska (Oscar-nominated director), about her film following Nikola, a Macedonian farmer, and his rescued stork, Siljan.
• Key points from Kotevska:
  • The film began as an environmental story but became a folktale when the stork entered the narrative.
  • The film’s central message is about the “chain of reactions” between humans, government decisions, and the natural world. [33:27]
  • Emphasizes the universality of agricultural struggle, resource monopolization, and humanity’s bond with nature:

    "Regardless of how much they're living in big cities or distant from nature, when they see this kind of bond... they feel something that is maybe... buried deep inside... but it's somewhere within us, this connection with nature." [37:36]

  • On film style: Beauty is used to attract viewers while still honoring documentary truth.
  • Building trust with the family involved living with them, constantly adjusting her approach to respect their privacy.

Notable Quotes

• On Europe’s Security Crisis:

  "It doesn’t seem to me that we do [have an ally in the US]. But all our strategic plans, all our military supplies are all locked in to the US." —Isabel Hilton [06:45]

• On Democratic Dysfunction:

  “If politicians can’t get along and form some kind of agreement... it just doesn’t work.” —Chris Chermak [24:26]

• On The Tale of Siljan’s Message:

  “We are a chain of reactions to many more species than just ourselves...” —Tamara Kotevska [33:27]

• On Cosmetic Policy:

  “If you start with that, how many other cosmetic issues will you have to address to satisfy the public? It’s endless.” —Philippe [29:46]

Key Timestamps

• [02:12–09:42] – US aggression, Europe’s crisis, NATO under threat.
• [09:42–18:36] – Latin America: China’s stake, Mercosur, and US policy.
• [18:36–26:49] – Italian electoral reform, democratic erosion.
• [27:42–31:36] – South Korea, hair loss, and government priorities.
• [32:22–38:38] – “The Tale of Siljan” documentary interview.

Tone and Style

Chaired by Chris Chermak with characteristic Monocle blend: wry, alert, informed—moving seamlessly from grave international developments to witty takes on cultural quirks. Hilton brings analytical depth, Marliere offers diplomatic/historical perspective, and the overall mood is serious but leavened by humor and engagement, especially in the closing segments.

In Summary

This Monocle Daily is a tour de force of analysis in a week of global turbulence:

• It deftly tracks the shockwaves from America’s latest foreign policy shocks and their implications for European security and unity.
• It examines the long tail of US “sphere of influence” doctrines as China and Russia reassert themselves.
• It pivots to democratic malaise and the pitfalls of electoral tinkering.
• It closes with cultural moments, from levity about hair loss to a soulful look at rural livelihoods in the Balkans.

For listeners seeking sharp insight spiked with wit—and a sense for the larger currents shaping 2026—this episode is essential.