The Monocle Daily – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Europe’s response to US and Israeli strikes on Iran
Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Panelists: Bertu Erşolik (Senior Research Fellow, RUSI), Quentin Peel (Journalist, Monocle Contributor)
Special Guests: Nimrod Goren (Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute), Kenneth R. Rosen (Author)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the escalating conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, focusing on Europe's uncertain and fragmented response. The panel examines the aftermath of Ayatollah Khamenei's assassination, Iran’s retaliatory logic, the role and vulnerability of neighboring Gulf states, and implications for global markets. Later, Andrew Muller interviews Kenneth R. Rosen about military tensions and governance challenges in the Arctic as detailed in his new book.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Atmosphere in Israel and Perceptions of Current Violence (00:18 – 07:01)

Guest: Nimrod Goren (From Tel Aviv)

• Worsening Situation: Israelis view recent attacks as an escalation (“a transformational moment in the Middle East”), linking the strikes to hopes of transformative change in Iran.
• Netanyahu's Narrative: Netanyahu positions the current violence as a climactic phase following October 7, exploiting political timing with an eye on looming elections.
• Hezbollah’s Weakening: Israeli consensus sees Hezbollah as weakened after two years of conflict, but ground invasions are unpopular—airstrikes are seen as preferable.
• Public Sentiment: Israelis display fatigue but maintain support for “what’s necessary” for security, with little appetite for deep ground offensives in Lebanon.

“The current condition: Israel has the upper hand, has dominance in both Lebanon, as we see on the sky, and Iran. The preference would be to keep it that manner rather than to invade with a ground operation.”
— Nimrod Goren (06:36)

2. Supreme Leader Assassination & Iranian Succession (07:01 – 10:16)

• Iran’s Systemic Resilience:
  • The regime is structured for continuity; quick succession is expected to signal stability.
  • Khamenei’s symbolic loss is significant and exposes vulnerabilities.
• External Threats:
  • The regime’s inability to protect its leader is a weakness noted by opposition groups.

“The regime was not able to protect [Khamenei] physically, I think shows some weakness… This is a moment of great fragility.”
— Bertu Erşolik (09:19)

3. Iran’s Lashing Out & Impact on the Gulf (10:16 – 14:33)

• Strategic Retaliation:
  • Iran is targeting several Gulf countries to force them into the conflict, hoping to pressure Trump and Israel to halt.
• Isolation in the Region:
  • Iran remains without real allies; reliance is on vassal groups, not state actors.
• Gulf States’ Involvement:
  • Escalation makes it increasingly unlikely the GCC can stay out.
  • Recent attacks on Qatar, Kuwait, and others heighten the sense of vulnerability and may draw Europe in over time.

“Iran escalated very quickly… targeting their Gulf Arab neighbors. This is the nightmare scenario for the GCC.”
— Bertu Erşolik (13:17)

4. US Objectives & Trump’s Approach (14:33 – 19:32)

• Ambiguous Endgame:
  • US strategy seems to center on decapitation (“regime change”) without a clear plan for what follows—drawing comparisons to Iraq and Libya.
• Trump’s “Venezuela Model”:
  • His muddled thinking conflates very different countries and underestimates Iran’s complexity.

“Almost deliberately precipitate a civil war, which is a terrifying prospect… nobody has learnt any lessons from the disaster of Iraq, the disaster of Libya…”
— Quentin Peel (15:33)

"Yes, we've talked a lot about his thinking and in the lead up to the operation...a lot of ambiguity around what the desired end state was, what the strategy was."
— Bertu Erşolik (17:23)

5. Europe’s Fragmented & Cautious Response (19:32 – 24:37)

• Spanish & British Stances:
  • Spain forbids US use of airbases. UK is reluctantly involved—RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus was struck by an Iranian drone.
• Political Risk:
  • Public and political memories of Iraq drive reluctance across Europe; leaders are hamstrung by domestic aversion to intervention.
• Iran’s Provocation:
  • Iran’s intent is to internationalize the conflict, provoke political discord in Western capitals, and possibly draw them in, complicating Trump's calculus.

“Absolutely [Europe wants it to go away], and desperate for it to go away, but really not knowing which button to press to make it stop… Europe’s incapacity to seriously influence the US President is becoming very clear yet again.”
— Quentin Peel (20:26)

6. Risks of Civil War and Minority Uprisings in Iran (24:37 – 24:57)

• Possibility of Fragmentation:
  • Minority groups (Kurds, Baluchis, etc.) might use this moment to rise up, increasing risk of state disintegration and civil war.

7. Global Economic Impact and Market Reaction (24:57 – 29:39)

• Disruptions:
  • Strikes have hit tankers and raised oil and gas prices, but markets remain relatively calm—possibly expect conflict to be brief.
• Duration is Key:
  • Longer conflict would likely cause sharper economic shocks.
• Strategic Chokepoints:
  • The Strait of Hormuz’s vulnerability is discussed; Iran may use its threat of closure as leverage, but full closure is seen as unlikely and self-defeating.

“If it’s a one week operation, [markets] will say, phew, thank God... But if we’re talking about six weeks, I think the markets have got a lot of wobbling to go.”
— Quentin Peel (26:13)

8. Domestic Politics, Popularity & "Boredom" Factor for Trump (28:57 – 31:57)

• Trump’s Priorities:
  • Domestic opinion is not supportive of military action; Trump is seen as driven by showmanship and stock prices.
• Risk of Policy Whiplash:
  • There is speculation that, for the first time, an American war could end simply due to the president’s loss of interest.

“This is a possibility for the first time in American history: it may end a war simply because the president got bored with it.”
— Andrew Muller (30:24)

9. Book Interview: Conflict Potential in the Arctic (32:35 – 42:51)

Guest: Kenneth R. Rosen, Author – "Polar Submarine Spies and the Struggle for Power in a Melting Arctic"

• Arctic as a New Hotspot:
  • Arctic conflict scenarios differ from Middle East/Eastern Europe wars but could destabilize the region geopolitically.
• US Neglect:
  • US military installations in Alaska and Greenland are in disrepair; the US lacks the presence and preparedness of rivals like Russia.
• Russian Ambitions:
  • Russia's focus is on securing the “northeast passage” and bolstering economic activity but avoids ceding too much influence to China.
• Governance & Indigenous Voices:
  • International Arctic fora too often exclude local and indigenous perspectives and lack genuine problem-solving.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Rosen calls for an Arctic military code of conduct and suggests Russia must be included as a security stakeholder, if only as a pragmatic move.

“The Arctic Council…was not designed to discuss security matters, but clearly that has changed… If we want to see the Arctic Council persist… we need to introduce something that can limit the militarization of the north so that we can focus on… climate change.”
— Kenneth R. Rosen (41:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Instability:
  “This is a moment of great fragility [for the regime], regardless of how quickly they appoint someone to replace him.”
  — Bertu Erşolik (09:19)

• On European Frustration:
  “Europe’s incapacity to seriously influence the US President is becoming very clear yet again… None of them want this to happen.”
  — Quentin Peel (20:26)

• On US Policy:
  “Almost deliberately precipitate a civil war, which is a terrifying prospect… suggesting nobody has learned any lessons from Iraq or Libya.”
  — Quentin Peel (15:33)

• On Trump's Reliability:
  "It may end a war simply because the president got bored with it."
  — Andrew Muller (30:24)

• On Arctic Governance:
  “We need to introduce something that can limit the militarization of the north so that we can focus on the primary reason for all these discussions, which is climate change.”
  — Kenneth R. Rosen (41:50)

Timed Segment Highlights

• [02:09 – 07:01] Nimrod Goren on Israeli society, Netanyahu’s politics, and appetite for escalation.
• [08:12 – 10:16] Panel unpacks regime resilience and symbolic impact of Khamenei’s assassination.
• [10:45 – 14:33] Qatar and other Gulf states drawn in; Iran’s regional calculations.
• [15:27 – 19:32] Dangers of regime-change strategies; Trump’s muddled logic.
• [19:32 – 24:37] EU response, public opinion, and Iranian provocation in Cyprus.
• [24:57 – 29:39] Markets, Strait of Hormuz, and global economic threats.
• [30:24 – 31:57] Trump’s fickle attention—could he abandon the war due to boredom?
• [32:35 – 42:51] Rosen’s Arctic analysis: U.S. unpreparedness, Russia/China ambitions, governance failures.

Conclusion

This episode of The Monocle Daily delivers a nuanced view of the new Middle East crisis, the deeply awkward position of European states, the unpredictability of Trump-era US policy, and the dangerous economic and political spillover risks. It closes with an insightful look at the Arctic as the next frontier of major-power rivalry, warning that urgent cooperation and adaptation are required to forestall similar escalations.

For listeners who missed the episode, this summary captures the major story arcs, moments of insight, and the unresolved complexities that lie ahead for the region, Europe’s foreign policy establishment, and the international order at large.