Podcast Summary: The Monocle Daily

Episode: How Washington’s intervention in Venezuela increases risk for the wider Latam region
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Vincent McEvinney
Guests: Tyra Schubart (journalist, Royal Astronomical Society Fellow), Antonio Sampao (Latin American politics & security expert)

Main Theme

This episode centers on the fallout from the U.S.-backed removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, exploring its ripples across Latin America and global geopolitics. The panel also addresses Europe's resilience failures and the resurgence of the space race, before finishing with reflections on morally ambiguous film protagonists and a personal dispatch from Istanbul.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Washington’s Intervention in Venezuela ([02:32] onward)

Regional Shockwaves

• The U.S., under President Trump, has ousted Venezuela's president, invoking a rebooted "Donro Doctrine."
• South American leaders, especially Brazil's Lula, express strong opposition and fear a violation of Latin American sovereignty.
  • Antonio Sampao: “The reaction across South America has been one of shock... The leader, especially of Brazil, Lula da Silva, was strongly against the measure... and used some strong words on Twitter about violation of international law.” ([03:15])
• Public opinion remains split along political lines. The right lauds the move as a model, while moderates and leftists see it as an affront to regional identity and sovereignty.

Impact on Borders and Security

• Immediate concern about increased criminal activity, trafficking, and refugee flows across Brazil’s northern border.
  • Antonio Sampao: “The military has prepared for an increase in refugee overflow and more drug trafficking groups... data is still early, but it's likely flows will shift toward Brazil.” ([04:47])
• U.S. military presence in the region is likely to redirect drug trade, possibly increasing trafficking through Brazil.

Nuanced Drug Trade Narrative

• Critics note that U.S. rhetoric lumps different drugs together, though Venezuela is primarily a cocaine transit country, not linked to fentanyl.

2. Global Geopolitical Repercussions ([07:00] onward)

Europe’s Cautious Response

• European leaders urge the U.S. to respect international law but tread carefully to avoid damaging relations.
  • Tyra Schubart: “[European leaders] used very careful language to not destroy any ties that they've built up carefully, that the Americans must respect international law...” ([07:00])

Cuba’s Potential Vulnerability

• The collapse of Venezuela’s regime could destabilize Cuba, which relies on Venezuelan oil in exchange for medical services.
  • Tyra Schubart: “Despite the fact that the Cuban regime is looking increasingly fragile... the Americans don’t have a great track record in successfully making regime change happen... 1961, the Bay of Pigs.” ([08:59])
• U.S. politicians like Marco Rubio could benefit politically if Cuba's regime falls ([08:59])

Mexican Concerns Over U.S. Intervention

• Fears abound that Trump might target Mexico or Colombia under the pretense of fighting cartels.
  • Antonio Sampao: “We are going into this brave new world... the old international order is dying and the new order still hasn’t been born.” ([10:08])
  • Trump openly warns other Latin American leaders, signaling he may disregard established alliances and democratic norms.

Rise of Multipolarity and Regional Unity?

• Discussion on whether South American countries will drift toward Russia/China, or unite regionally for more autonomy.
  • Antonio Sampao: “Nationalism will tend to become more empowered with this operation... the left tends to benefit slightly more than the right.” ([13:16])

3. Europe’s Faltering Resilience & Preparedness ([14:15] onward)

Recent Incidents Highlight Vulnerabilities

• Power outage in Berlin, overwhelmed medical facilities in Switzerland, and extreme weather paralyze transport in several countries.
  • Antonio Sampao: “The problem is that the coordination or incorporation of local governments... into what is essentially at its core a national security concern, has been problematic in general.” ([15:02])

Preparedness Lag & Public Awareness

• EU strategies exist, including food and water stockpiles, but citizen awareness and habitual preparation lag behind.
  • Tyra Schubart: “The EU... issued a directive that all people... keep three days of essential supplies stocked up.” ([16:57])
• Formerly secure societies realize, post-pandemic and amid war, that previous comfort is not guaranteed—Nordic/Baltic states fare better due to lived experience with military threats.

National Service Debates

• France considering national service revival for disaster response and security.
  • Antonio Sampao: “It has to escalate quite dramatically... for Western European governments to implement any kind of mandatory draft, military draft.” ([19:08])
• Voluntary recruitment and city resilience investments are discussed, balanced against fiscal constraints.

4. Renewed Space Race: U.S. vs. China ([20:34] onward)

Missions and Motives

• 2027: NASA’s Artemis 2 & China’s Chang’e 7 lunar missions mark new era of competition for lunar resources.
  • Tyra Schubart: “Artemis... that will be the first time we’re going into deep space in more than 50 years... Changi 7... going to land on the south pole of the moon... looking for water ice... an important resource.” ([21:30])
• U.S. approach is privatized (SpaceX et al.); China’s is state-led with Global South partnerships.

Resource Competition & Legal Gray Areas

• Moon’s rare earth elements, water, and fuel are the new prizes.
  • Antonio Sampao: “We are moving into privatization... discussions around legislating... how to share those resources.” ([23:27])
• Outer Space Treaty (1967) is insufficient for modern commercial/geopolitical realities.
  • Tyra Schubart: “There isn’t really a treaty... countries or the private companies that want to do that will be able to do so.” ([24:51])

Public Imagination vs. Earthly Problems

• Will the revived space race inspire like Apollo, or prompt introspection given Earth’s ongoing crises?
  • Tyra Schubart: “A good writer can make a morally dubious character very sympathetic and very attractive.” ([25:59])

Wry Observation

• Antonio Sampao: “At least we now know one place where Trump’s special forces cannot reach.” ([26:03])

5. Film & Fiction: Morally Dubious Protagonists ([26:56] onward)

Film 'Marty Supreme' Sparks Debate

• The conversation uses the new film as a springboard to discuss audience attachment to unlikable or sociopathic protagonists.
  • Tyra Schubart: “Look back at the Godfather... Michael Corleone... gets his own brother executed... we still love him and he still is a compelling character.” ([27:34])
  • Antonio Sampao: “Morally dubious characters... are interesting. My favorite film is Blade Runner... Roy... a sociopath and yet he has one of the most beautiful pieces of dialogue in cinema.” ([28:21])
• In literature and classics (Shakespeare’s Macbeth), writers create sympathy for villainous leads.

6. Dispatch: Istanbul’s Shifting Tides ([30:48] onward)

A reflective letter from departing correspondent Hanna Lucinda Smith, charting Istanbul’s population boom, social change, crackdown on dissent, and enduring beauty amid political chill and economic crisis.

Notable quote:

• Hanna Lucinda Smith: “The weight of Istanbul has grown too heavy... And I always know that the sunset over the Bosphorus will stay the same. Whatever else has changed.” ([37:56])

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Antonio Sampao: “The right had Maduro and his regime as one of the favorite sort of foreign policy flags... they were very happy with the overthrow and see the Trump measure as a sort of a role model...” ([03:15])
• Tyra Schubart: “The Americans don’t have a great track record in successfully making regime change happen...” ([08:59])
• Antonio Sampao: “We are in this transition, and we used to live in a world of unipolar order... now it’s based on the sort of division of the world into spheres of influence...” ([10:08])
• Tyra Schubart: “Nordic and the Scandinavian countries... have extraordinary preparedness... the foreign minister in the EU is Kaya Kallis... she knows a thing or two about being Russian.” ([16:57])
• Antonio Sampao: “Cities that prepared better are the ones that started after the war... islands of energy autonomy, that is expensive. So it’s a societal debate.” ([19:08])
• Tyra Schubart: “There isn’t really a treaty... countries or private companies that want to do that will be able to do so.” ([24:51])
• Tyra Schubart: “Macbeth, totally morally dubious and did murder, but yet he has the sympathy of the audience.” ([29:50])
• Hanna Lucinda Smith: “The weight of Istanbul has grown too heavy... And I always know that the sunset over the Bosphorus will stay the same. Whatever else has changed.” ([37:56])

Chapter Timestamps for Key Topics

• Venezuela/Donro Doctrine: [02:32]–[14:15]
• Europe’s Resilience Failures: [14:15]–[20:34]
• Space Race: [20:34]–[25:59]
• Morally Dubious Film Characters: [26:56]–[30:28]
• Istanbul Dispatch: [30:48]–[37:56]

Episode Tone

Engaged, incisive, and at times wryly humorous, the panel delivers sharp analysis with global awareness—balancing political gravitas with lighter cultural observations and personal reflection.

Conclusion

This episode presents a cross-continental snapshot of global turbulence, marked by geopolitical unpredictability from Venezuela to Berlin to Beijing, and peppered with astute commentary on culture and society. It closes with a bittersweet portrait of change in Istanbul, tying the global and personal strands together with thoughtful storytelling.