The Monocle Daily
Episode: How will recognising a Palestinian state affect tariff deals with Trump?
Date: July 31, 2025
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Dr. Marion Messmer (Chatham House), Quentin Peel (Monocle Radio Contributor)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, especially in light of countries' moves to recognize a Palestinian state. Andrew Muller, along with guests Marion Messmer and Quentin Peel, dissect how tariffs are wielded as blunt instruments in international diplomacy, delve into the complex trade-offs European countries face, and reflect on broader implications for global security and society—from fraught infrastructure to the rise of influencers, and even the persistent allure (or horror) of adult summer camps.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. US Tariffs and Trump’s Approach

• Tariff Deadlines and Deals: The US is approaching President Trump's tariff deadline; nations that haven’t reached a deal will face his arbitrary tariff schedule—including some bizarre cases like imposing tariffs on uninhabited islands. Only eight out of the promised ninety deals have been concluded.
  • "Please enjoy your regular reminder that these included a 10% slug on the Heard and McDonald Islands, which export nothing...nobody lives there except penguins, maybe also some seals." (03:31 - Andrew Muller)
• Unpredictability and Political Motives: Trump often uses tariffs for non-trade-related issues (e.g., Brazilian domestic politics, Canadian recognition of Palestine), sometimes without clear economic rationale.
  • "He just sees it as a very blunt instrument for doing unpleasant things to people...he then seems to put on, take away." (04:37 - Quentin Peel)
• Public Misunderstanding: The administration boasts about tariff revenue, potentially banking on the public misunderstanding that this is paid by foreign countries, not US consumers.
  • "Is he calculating that the voters don't understand that the voters paid that $150 billion?" (05:35 - Andrew Muller)

Notable Quote

“He just reacts by the seat of his pants really to the latest thing.”
— Quentin Peel (08:11)

2. Recognition of Palestine and Trade Friction

• Canada’s Position: Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, announced its intention to recognize the Palestinian state, which Trump directly linked to potential trade deal difficulties. This is timed with the upcoming UN General Assembly.
  • "The timing...to say we're going to recognize the state of Palestine, almost guaranteed to annoy Donald Trump, is curious." (07:40 - Quentin Peel)
• Transactional Approach: Trump’s foreign policy ties unrelated diplomatic decisions (such as Palestine recognition) to economic penalties via trade.
  • "It only makes a deal as difficult as he decides to make it, because whether or not Canada recognizes Palestine has nothing to do with its trade relationship with the United States." (06:48 - Andrew Muller)

3. European and Allied Trade Dilemmas

• Compliance Despite Reservations: European countries and others (UK, Japan, South Korea) have accepted poor tariff deals, likely calculating that it’s better to “suck this up for three and a half years” to retain broader cooperation with the US, especially on security.
  • "I'm not sure he wouldn't also actually turn around on a deal that's already been agreed if there's something else in the relationship that displeases him." (09:29 - Marion Messmer)
• Global Ripple Effects: The US’s measures have widespread impacts, even on those with agreements, given the global interconnectedness of supply chains and markets.

Notable Quote

“The US is such a major trade partner...tariffs are going to have an impact on global trade anyway, even for the countries that have managed to get a trade deal…”
— Marion Messmer (09:29)

4. Trump's Tariff Strategy—Domestic Politics, Global Consequences

• Base-Centric Policy: For Trump, tariff policies appear more about domestic political theater than effective economic strategy, often disregarding the knock-on effect for American consumers or US allies.
  • "At the end of the day, this is all about his relationship to his base in the US. It’s not really about his relationship with the rest of the world, but it has huge consequences for the rest of the world." (10:42 - Quentin Peel)
• Stock Market Fatigue: Initial market panic over tariff threats appears to have subsided, perhaps due to skepticism that Trump will follow through or certainty that markets will adapt.
• Risks to US Businesses: The unpredictability extends to US companies, with Trump even threatening India—the country to which Apple has shifted production as a workaround to China tariffs.
  • "...Apple is now planning to produce lots of its phones for the US market [...] Now, a major US investor like Apple is going to get screwed by the tariffs he's threatening to put on India." (11:59 – Quentin Peel)

5. Europe’s Military Logistics and Infrastructure Concerns

• Challenges Moving Kit East: EU officials warn about the state of roads and railways hampering rapid military movement from West to East Europe. Problems include outdated Soviet gauge rail lines in the Baltics, red tape at borders, and general infrastructure neglect.
  • "Moving military kit...can take weeks or months. That seems bad." (13:26 – Andrew Muller)
  • "If you need infrastructure to be ready to move lots of equipment and lots of troops at short notice and efficiently...that's particularly bad." (13:34 – Marion Messmer)
• Dual-purpose Investment: The €17bn European initiative won't only bolster defense but also boost commercial transport and growth.

Notable Quote

“If we look at what's currently forward deployed along NATO's eastern flank, there's already a lot of kit there as a deterrence gesture...if Russia was to try and breach any...border of NATO, then there would be a lot of additional equipment and especially troops that would need to be moved there pretty quickly.”
— Marion Messmer (16:51)

• Public Perception: The panel doubts whether the gravity of the Russian threat and the need for defense investment is fully felt in Western European societies.
  • "I think there is a very big job still to be done to persuade electorates that actually money is going to have to be spent on defence and not on the health service or education." (18:38 – Quentin Peel)

6. UK Hosts “Influencers”—The Politics and Problems of Outreach

• 10 Downing Street Reception: The UK government hosted social media influencers at the PM’s residence, prompting reflection on the role and responsibility of influencers in spreading both legitimate messages and disinformation.
  • "If we look at the levels of unchecked disinformation on social media and the role that influencers play in propagating that, I find it really concerning." (20:10 – Marion Messmer)
• Electoral Reach vs. Misinformation: Politicians face a dilemma—reach youth where they are, or risk amplifying dubious voices and unreliable information. Traditional media, meanwhile, must experiment with new formats while maintaining quality standards.
  • "Do I go on this thing operated by this clown who is funded by God knows who, but who reaches a gajillion people? Or do I go on the sober, serious current affairs program on the BBC which nobody watches?” (21:37 – Andrew Muller)

Notable Quote

"On a podcast or on unregulated media, you can't really discern whether someone actually has expertise or whether someone just ordered a podcast mic on Amazon."
— Marion Messmer (24:13)

7. The Rise of Adult Summer Camps—Infantilization or Nostalgia?

• US Trend: US adults are paying hefty sums ($800 a weekend) to relive summer camp experiences. The panel reflects on the potential psychological reasons—stress, nostalgia, or societal “infantilization.”
  • "What's really cool is all the activities are planned for you." (29:47 – CBS attendee, quoted by Andrew Muller)
• Mixed Reactions: Personal anecdotes range from horror stories of military-style school camps to pleasant childhood experiences, raising the question of whether these retreats serve as a harmless escape or reflect worrying societal trends.
  • "It's sort of a country prison or something like that. It does sound terrible, terrifying." (29:51 – Quentin Peel)
  • “I think these kind of activities probably appeal to people that feel really overwhelmed by modern life…” (30:21 – Marion Messmer)

8. Letter from Prague: Overtourism and the Soul of Cities

• First-hand Reflection: Andrew Muller reflects on Prague’s transformation from a quiet, magical city in the 1990s to a tourist-choked attraction today—a microcosm of over-tourism challenges facing cities like Barcelona.
  • “It is that there is no longer any reason for anybody but visitors to go there. Pretty much everything in the center of Prague is selling some sort of souvenir of Prague… Prague is one of those places which has become its own theme park.” (31:05+)
• Broader Implications: While not nostalgic for authoritarian times, Muller gently argues for preserving cities' authenticity and warns that once lost, the soul of a city may not return, even if it remains lucrative.

Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Trump’s “blunt instrument” approach to tariffs (04:37 – Quentin Peel)
• Canada’s calculated risk with Palestine recognition (07:40 – Quentin Peel)
• The futility (and necessity) of EU and allied countries “sucking it up” with US deals (09:29 – Marion Messmer)
• Stock markets adjusting to Trump’s unpredictability (11:44 – Quentin Peel)
• Debate over military spending: infrastructure vs. drones (16:51 – Marion Messmer)
• Influencer reception: the risk of chasing audiences over substance (21:37 – Andrew Muller; 24:13 – Marion Messmer)
• Adult summer camps: regression or relief? (29:47 – Andrew Muller quoting CBS; 30:21 – Marion Messmer)
• Letter from Prague: Over-tourism and city identity (31:05 onwards – Andrew Muller)

Conclusion

This episode weaves together the ways in which seemingly diverse issues—from Trump’s tariffs through European military logistics, influencer culture, and the transformation of urban spaces—are all implicated in the turbulence of contemporary geopolitics and society. The tone remains sharp, skeptical, and often wry, offering both expert analysis and colorful asides ("What is TikTok? You will not find me anywhere like that." – Quentin Peel, 25:14). The panel consistently emphasizes the unpredictability of the current global landscape and the necessity for critical thinking—whether about tariffs, TikTok, tanks, or tourist traps.