The Monocle Daily: How will the US-Israeli War with Iran Impact Ukraine?

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests:

• Latika Burke (Writer at Large, The Nightly)
• Nick Gowing (Distinguished Fellow, Royal United Services Institute)
• Inzamam Rashid (Monocle’s Gulf Correspondent, from Dubai)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily dissects the rapidly escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran and probes its repercussions on Ukraine, the wider Middle East, and broader transatlantic alliances. The panel drills into real-time updates from the Gulf, the involvement of regional powers, the entanglement of major Western states, and how this new front might impact Ukraine’s embattled resistance against Russia. Human stories, historical echoes, and political analysis blend for a panoramic view of a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran’s Escalation and Regional Fallout

[00:07–09:19]

• Live Update from Dubai:

  • The Gulf, particularly Dubai and Abu Dhabi, are experiencing air raids, intercepted missile fire, and the constant background hum of fighter jets.
  • Iran targets Gulf energy resources, with significant strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Fujairah.
  • "There was a pretty unprecedented briefing ... unprecedented times. This is something that the UAE has never seen before, and I think it's causing a lot of concern." — Inzamam Rashid, [02:40]

• Direct Confrontation:

  • Qatar’s military shot down two Iranian fighter jets—the most significant combat escalation so far.
  • Retaliatory Gulf strikes on Iran may have begun (not confirmed).
  • Gulf states previously tried to avoid involvement; Iran appears intent on drawing them into direct conflict.

• Dubai Flights Resume Amid Danger:

  • UAE reopens airspace with tacit cooperation from US, Israel, and possibly Iran, in an effort to evacuate and continue basic operations, despite attacks damaging main airports.

• Expert Analysis:

  • The geography between Iran, Qatar, and Dubai means “flight time … is barely a minute. That means there's very little advance warning of what is happening.” — Nick Gowing, [09:23]

2. The Lebanon Front: Proxy War’s Human Cost

[10:16–14:48]

• Cycle of Violence:

  • Israel's airstrikes in Lebanon intensify after Hezbollah responds to Iranian strikes; Israeli ground troops move into southern Lebanon.
  • Lebanese government distances itself from Hezbollah, labeling its actions as not representing national will.
  • “Maybe this is their own death or glory moment. Are they completely lost without Iranian support?” — Andrew Muller, [10:50]

• Regional Power Shifts:

  • Latika Burke: "Are we going to see Israel become a mega power in the Middle East ... dominating its region in a way it’s never done before? ... Netanyahu is rewriting the Middle East in his name." [11:12]
  • Nick Gowing: "Lebanon and South Lebanon are unfinished business ... Israel wants to finish off this business and ... make sure this threat does not return." [12:27]

• Prospects for Hezbollah and Lebanon:

  • Potential historic alignment between Lebanon’s government and Israel against Hezbollah; unprecedented, but not assured.
  • "It might. If anything can happen in these next few weeks, I do think." — Latika Burke, [14:20]

3. Transatlantic Tensions: The US-UK ‘Special Relationship’ Strains

[15:15–19:00]

• Trump vs Starmer:

  • President Trump criticizes UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for hesitance and logistical friction (overuse of British airbases and broader political support).
  • “We are very surprised this is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.” — Donald Trump, [16:00]
  • Starmer’s reluctance framed as a possible domestic advantage but as undermining UK global standing and transatlantic cohesion.

• European Reluctance and Precedents:

  • Debate on UK and European military engagement, referencing the 2003 Iraq War and Syria chemical attack debates—Parliamentary consent now a critical factor.
  • “There is also an argument as, do we want to get involved with this? Do we want to get dragged in? Is our capacity needed?” — Nick Gowing, [19:00]

4. NATO, Escalation Risk, and the Wider Alliance

[21:26–22:36]

• Rising NATO Anxiety:
  • Drones target Cyprus (a British base); NATO members quietly move military assets into the region.
  • “This could end up being the test of NATO a lot of us have been talking about ... we're looking at a very dangerous scenario... Allies ... being drawn in.” — Latika Burke, [21:53]

5. Ukraine: Strategic Setbacks and Opportunities

[22:36–27:27]

• Impact of Middle East Conflict on Ukraine:

  • Iranian support for Russia (drone warfare) may decline as Iran is pressed militarily.
  • However, diversion of Western military assets (notably US Patriot missile systems) from Ukraine to the Middle East is a grave concern.
  • “... If those American made weapons are being diverted to the Middle east, that’s a serious and significant setback for Ukraine, which desperately needs one thing in particular … those Patriot systems.” — Latika Burke, [24:53]

• Global South and Weapon Evolution:

  • Use of Shahed drones in the Gulf, battle-tested in Ukraine, should alert states that thought the Ukraine war had no impact on them.

• Ukraine’s Homegrown Response:

  • Ukraine’s domestic military innovation is remarkable, but can’t compensate for immediate shortage of Western air defenses.

• US Foreign Policy Inconsistency:

  • “He (Trump) was able to launch a war ... with two battle carrier groups in the Middle East within a few hours ... the kind of thing which could have worked so well in Ukraine ... I am asking myself, why is he not prepared to commit?” — Nick Gowing, [26:07]

6. Final Reflections: Open Questions and No Easy Answers

[27:32–30:18]

• Will the US Commitment Last?

  • “I think he's still a real estate broker, and when he signed on the dotted line for a bit of estate, he'll move on. It's easier to drop bombs, easier to kill people than to create a new society.” — Nick Gowing, [28:15]

• Lack of US and Israeli Planning:

  • Allies (even US hawks like John Bolton, Lindsey Graham) are deeply skeptical of US having a “day after” strategy.
  • “The lack of thought from the Americans about what comes next I think is staggering. It does justify the reticence from its allies.” — Latika Burke, [29:01]

• Primacy of Israeli Initiative:

  • US military support prompted by Israeli action, rather than a coherent American grand strategy; consequences may reverberate for years.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gulf’s Involvement:
  • “The Iranians want to draw them in ... determined to bring others in and blame everybody for what is happening ...” — Nick Gowing, [04:02]
• On Netanyahu’s Middle East Role:
  • “This is a guy that cannot be shaken or moved, and he is rewriting the Middle East in his name.” — Latika Burke, [11:12]
• On US-UK Discord:
  • "We're very surprised this is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with." — Donald Trump, [16:00]
• On Impact for Ukraine:
  • "If those American made weapons are being diverted to the Middle east, that's a serious and significant setback for Ukraine..." — Latika Burke, [24:53]
• On Lack of Planning:
  • “It’s so clear every minute that goes on the lack of plan that they had.” — Latika Burke, [28:43]
• On the Longevity of Conflict:
  • “I think he's still a real estate broker, and when he signed on the dotted line for a bit of estate, he'll move on ... It’s deeply, deeply forbidding.” — Nick Gowing, [28:15]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:19–09:19] – Real-time report from Dubai (Inzamam Rashid)
• [10:16–14:48] – Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel’s objectives, and regional power insights
• [15:15–19:00] – Friction in US-UK relations, domestic political challenges
• [21:26–22:36] – NATO’s potential entanglement, escalation fears
• [22:36–27:27] – Analysis of the Ukraine war in light of new global crises
• [27:32–30:18] – Final thoughts, critique of Western strategy, the enduring specter of conflict

Tone & Style

The conversation is sharp, measured, and deeply informed, blending on-the-ground reporting, political analysis, and historical perspective with flashes of personal anecdotes and dry wit. The tone is serious, often skeptical, reflecting the gravity and complexity of the crises discussed.

Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering overview of a world where regional war and great-power ambitions collide, alliances strain under the weight of events, and vulnerable nations like Ukraine face new agonies as global attention shifts. The panel’s wary outlook and detailed reportage leave no doubt: these are volatile, unfinished times, with more peril—and few clear answers—ahead.