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- [00:00]
A
You're listening to the Monocle Daily, first broadcast on 12 January 2026 on Monocle Radio. The worsening situation in Iran. What happens next in Syria? And what has Frederick Mertz been saying in India? I'm Georgina Godwin. The Monocle Daily starts now. Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily, coming to you live from studios here at Midori House in London. I'm Georgina Godwin. My guests, Julie Norman and Yossi Mekelberg will discuss the day's big stories. Tonight, pressure points, political, social and economical as we examine Iran's hardening rhetoric as protests turn deadly. And fresh pressures about Syria's future after clashes in Aleppo. We'll look at milestone trade agreements between Germany and India amid fears of a new protectionism. And. And we'll end with gathering storm clouds over the sunny beaches of Rio. Stay tuned. All that coming up right here on the Monocle Daily. This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Georgina Godwin and I'm joined by Julie Norman, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at ucl, and Yossi Meckelburg, Senior Consulting Fellow at the MENA Programme at Chatham House. What's extraordinary, Julie, is you and I must have had dozens and dozens of conversations, but we've never actually met in person.
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B
That's right. This is a big night. It's nice to actually finally see you. So.
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A
And it's so great. You know, it really changes the whole tone of a program when you can see somebody's face and see their eyes and.
- [01:43]
B
Absolutely. I'm sure our listeners are very jealous.
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A
Now, listen, my colleague Hassan Anderson has just revealed to me and to our listeners that you are both Queenstown Rangers fans. I'm gathering that some kind of football team, Queens Park Rangers, qpr.
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B
Come on, Georgina, get on board here. Oh, yeah, Yosi started me on this, so he should be the lead on this, but he started taking me to games and I couldn't resist.
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C
Yeah, many years ago I lived in Hammersmith and one evening I went for a walk and I saw the floodlights kind of in the distance and I just walked there and I found the stadium and came back home three hours later and never looked back. Remember hoops supporter? The ours.
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A
And how did he suck you in?
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B
Well, I obviously am not from the uk. I moved here from the US and Canada and I was looking for a team and Yosi was always talking about qpr, so I said, I finally have to go to one of these games. And he also hooked me in because there's lots of good Middle Eastern food, restaurants Right around there. So we said, we'll do the match and then get some food. And that worked.
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A
Right? Right. If you're into Canadian sports, what about ice hockey? And have you watched this new hotel Heated Rivalry? Heated Rivalry, which the Guardian describes as them going with buttocks like pneumatic hands.
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B
I mean, I wish our listeners could see these things. I would really want to watch this show. I'm definitely an ice hockey fan. Montreal halves are definitely my team. But for heated rivalry, it's just like taking the world by storm. It's amazing.
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A
It really. I mean, it's a real Zeitgeist moment, isn't it?
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C
You'll see, considering where I was born, everything with ice doesn't exist. I mean, only on the freezer. The rest is done in the desert. I mean on the sea sand. On the beach, as we'll talk later. Or in the sea. So I actually Canadian friend only forced me to watch and I big. I can't remember the name of the two. I didn't get it all. I know. I feel dizzy by the end of the. Just trying to look. There is a name for this. This.
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B
The Puck.
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C
The Puck. Yes, the Puck. I just try to see where is the Puck going? And. And eventually I. I understood that the most exciting things that just trying to beat up each other at one point or another. So.
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A
Well, I'm assured that the Puck goes to some interesting places in heated rivalry. Now, culturally, of course, you've got a very big moment this week.
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B
Yes. So listeners may have heard that I just published a new book, the Dream and the Nightmare. And the stage adaptation is opening this week, Thursday, Friday in London. It's a performance piece comprised of quotes from interviews that I conducted while writing this book on Gaza over the last two years.
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A
So Verbatim Theatre.
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B
Yes. And so it's kind of interwoven quotes and kind of composite characters. And so it's our. Our premiere is this week. So if you're in London, come check it out.
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A
Where will it be?
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B
It'll be at the Bloomsbury Studio Theatre on Thursday and Friday evenings.
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A
Excellent. Jos. You'll be there soon.
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C
I definitely will be there. I read the book, I went to the book launch and now I see that you saw. I have kind of the holy trinity of this. Of going to see. Yes, of. So I look forward very much to the play. Excellent.
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A
Well, let's stay in that very heated region. We'll begin in Iran where l leaders say that they are ready for war if the US intervenes while still claiming diplomacy is on the table as protests continue and tensions rise. I mean, there were reports this morning of Perhaps up to 500 people dead, shot by security forces. Julia, I wonder how realistic the threat of military intervention by the US really is.
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B
Yeah, I mean, as I think everyone knows with Trump, I think all cards are on the table. And especially after the events in Venezuela. Iran also is on notice that this is a president who can and will use military force when he chooses to. I do think others in the administration, and including Trump, and this will be part of his briefing tomorrow, will be realistic about the fact that a military strike can go either way. In this case, something too light can simply just have a rally around the flag effect. It can actually hurt the protest movement and strengthen the regime where something too strong can just embroil the US in that region, in that conflict for, you know, for years to come. So this is a tough decision to make and it's one that despite Trump's rhetoric, I think, I think he will be advised to take this slowly and wisely.
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A
And Yossi, I mean, is Iran in a position to respond as they've threatened? I mean previous responses have been muted. The forces have their hands full at present, just controlling the crowds.
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C
They can also always provoke something. And going back to what Julie said, intervention, external intervention is double edged sword. On the one hand, you know, the protesters would like the world to support them, mainly morally, politically, diplomatically, but also in a way that stop the killing. On the other hand, the minute that there is serious military intervention, it turns from a revolution, something that is authentic, organic to Iran into regime change. And this is something completely different. As for, you know, Iran still have military capabilities and they can, you know, in case of the United States etar. Oh, I don't think Israel wants to get involved, especially if the US does the job for it has no interest to intervene. But the retaliation can be elsewhere. It can be somewhere in the Gulf, it can be stopping of tankers, oil tankers, it can be against Israel. So there is a range of retaliation. It can take place potentially.
- [07:20]
A
And Julie, what other options are open to Washington? I mean, I wonder if Trump is boxed in now, having made the threat, does he have to act or look, you know, completely.
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B
Yeah, there is some of this sense of, oh, you have to save face. If you've kind of made these public statements, but this has happened many times before with other presidents, you know, back to Obama. It's kind of making these red line statements and then backing away from that a bit. But I think for Trump there will be military Options on the table, most likely drone or missile strikes. So we're not talking boots on the ground as much as strikes. Other options of course would be cyber attacks, either on military or civilian infrastructure, even more sanctions, which it's hard to see even further sanctions at this point since they're already so high, or simply boosting and supporting anti government forces and sources.
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A
Well, let's stay in the region because fighting in Aleppo between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish led SDF has stopped, at least for now, with civilians once again left to pick up the pieces. But Yossi, I wonder why violence fled again and why it stopped because the.
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C
Situation is so volatile. All the idea, I think we many times look at state building and nation building in European terms and then we come to the Middle east and it's very different. You see the different communities. Then after decades and decades of oppression, then you have the minorities, whether it's the Alawite that were in power for five decades and the Christians and the Kurds, and everyone is looking to each other saying, can I trust them? And obviously after all these years of oppression, no one trusts anyone. And why should they, considering their experience? So this is an experiment. And this experiment, how you build a nation, a state after these years of oppression that comes from above. And the Kurds, you know, they have a history of not and rightly so, not to trust anyone because everyone betrayed them along the generation. Turkey is looking for one side then their rights for autonomous in Iraq, it's more recognized in the last 20 something years. So they're worried if they integrate their forces into the military and the Syrian military, if something goes wrong, who protects their own population. So it's part of this now. Hopefully it's part of a teething pain, but it can also turn into something else. For now it seems what happens in come down, most of the troops left Aleppo, moved to the northeast of Syria, but it's not a done deal yet.
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A
Yeah, I mean, Julia, I wonder if this is the past resurfacing or a completely new phase. Is it a big consequential moment for the future of the country?
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B
Yeah, I think, as Yossi said, I think this type of events are things that one has to expect at this point. I mean, you have the new Syrian government under Ashara trying to kind of consolidate their control politically, but also in terms of security. And so this key city of Aleppo was one where they really, you know, felt the need. They had to do that to have some sort of unity among the security forces. There was a deal made back in March that the SDF would be integrated into those forces. But as Yossi said, there's years of history and of course, you know, future things to come, that minority groups in particular are going to be trying to watch out for themselves and trying to preventyou know, prevent some kind of further marginalization or oppression under a new regime.
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C
Look what happened to the Alawites immediately after Ashara came to power. Many of them were massacred. So there is the fear the same happened with the Drus close to the Israeli border. At the same time you have all these countries look in Syria and think, what's my interest here? So Turkey think, you know, the relations between the FC and what used to be or still is the pkk. Israel is looking, you know, do we want what they call jihadists close to our border so they occupy even further into Syria? So everyone is looking into what's happening there and intervening in their own way, which makes it even more difficult to unite the country around singular cause.
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A
And I wonder if you could tell us a little bit about the Kurdish question and how central that is to this issue.
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C
It's interesting because if I can bring the Israeli side of it, because there was an historical connection or link between the Israel and the Kurdish, because they feel some affinity. The idea that you have people but they don't have a state, every country. So whether it's in Iraq, so you know, if you go Back to Woodrow Wilson, 14 points and the idea that every nation deserves self determination. One of the nations that never got self determination are the Kurds. And in many cases they were the receiving end of oppression. We see what happens in Turkey, in Syria. So there is a question that always look at them as a minority, but they don't want to look at themselves everywhere as a minority. They think, is there going to be one day one territory that will be Kurdistan, an independent one? So there is a gap between that. Turkey won't allow that one in Iraq. They have more autonomy. But what's going to happen? Are they protected? And this is part of the big dream of Kurdish state in which Syria is part of creates tensions.
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A
I see that. I wonder if the rest of the world though is taking its eyes off Syria. Is it slipping off the radar again? Julie?
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B
I think it is. I mean, for those of us who follow the region closely, as both Yossi and I do, definitely still a lot of focus on Syria. And I would emphasize to us, even though many think the US is kind of retreating from the Middle East, Syria is one place where the US is still very invested and especially on these Kurd negotiations. So I would say it's not in the headlines as much, especially as, you know, Gaza and then now Iran are much more in the headlines. But certainly for those of us watching the region, the dynamics, Syria is so central and the changes there will have just incredible effects on the region moving forward.
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A
I'd really like to pick up on what you said about the US Though. How much interest and control does Washington have?
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C
I think actually if we can praise Trump for something, is that he took a different approach to Syria that we saw in other places, you know, probably most European countries and previous American administration think about Ashara and just label him this is a terrorist, a jihadist, al Qaeda and won't even give him a chance. And here is, you know, everyone that we saw him speak recently is quite an impressive guy and he knows to play the game. And you see, you really wonder is it all a game or is he can. Can there is a real change and he makes this transformation. And the United States is crucial by removing the sanction, removing the European sanction to start and rebuild and rebuild Syria. It becomes even more important if events in Iran are getting much worse because this is another block there in the Middle East. If Iran is becoming less stable, then Syria is becoming and stability in Syria becomes even more important and it will become more important for the American interest there.
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A
I mean, Julie, do you think that we will see a full scale war between the SDF and the government?
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B
You know, I think it's a little hard to predict fully, but I would say right now that's something that most actors are taking pains to try and avoid. And again, I would emphasize the US Here in particular, and to build on what Yossi said, the US not only has this kind of new relationship with Syria forming, but also has a very strong, strong relationship with the SDF and the Kurdish movements and stuff there of late, and then also with Turkey and especially Trump with Erdogan. So you have the US in this point being able to move somewhat advantageously between these different actors and the US Being the strength that it has flexing a little bit in the region right now with strikes against isis. I do think the US in particular will be trying to do everything to avoid that.
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A
So, Yossi, just bring us up to speed then talk a little bit more about Turkey and Turkey's role in all.
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C
And just one point also, there is the Russian aspect of this because the close relation between Syria and Russia and the foothold in the Mediterranean. So from the United States point of view, if you can also marginalize Russia in this. This is another important one. As for Turkey, this is crucial, especially on the Kurdish issue. It's crucial for Turkey as long as the attitude to the Kurds is to prevent any idea of Kurdish self determination and avoid this spilling out. Because for many years some of the PKK found basically they sheltered in Syria by closing that. That's one of the reasons that they also support Ashara back. You know, it's not last year, but the year before in December of 2024 is for them. It's part of resolving in the way that they want Erdogan, the Kurdish issue.
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A
It's Yossi's talking about Russia and of course, the former leader Bashar Al Assad is in Moscow. How involved do you think Russia still remains in Syria? I mean, that they are decades long strategic partners?
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B
Yeah, I mean, obviously on the surface, Russia has much less of a foothold there since the fall of the Assad regime. But I would say I think it's premature to say that they are completely out of the game. They certainly still have many interests there. They certainly still have many actors on the ground, and they certainly don't want to be ceding their influence in the region completely to the US at this moment.
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A
So Moscow's also figured in discussions between Friedrich Merz and Narendra Modi. The German chancellor's on his first official visit to India and he's very keen to tighten ties in order to reduce India's dependence on Russia. The visit comes at a special time in bilateral relations. So Last year marked 25 years of the India Germany strategic partnership, and this year celebrates 75 years of diplomatic ties. So Mertz used the occasion to warn against the dangers of protectionism. He said, unfortunately, we're seeing a renaissance of protectionism. It's directed against the principles of free trade and open markets. He added that EU leaders could travel to India towards the end of this month to sign a free trade agreement. Julia, I wonder if protectionism is back and if it is, is it because voters want it or because leaders find it useful?
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B
I mean, you know, we hear Mertz talking a lot about you're trying to use this as a geopolitical opening, steer India away from relian on Russian oil. But it's also a way to sort of undercut the US at this moment. And I think the protectionist comments were very much directed towards the U.S. s posture right now under Trump with tariffs, with this sort of retrenching, which in fact has prevented the US from putting forward a full trade deal with India and I think merits and the EU possibly are trying to kind of get in at this moment. And somewhat advantageously, I would note also China as well has had more protectionist policies of late too in their dealings with India and to some degree with with Europe. And so relatively for China, that's sign of a direction that we're seeing. So I think it's the US Alone, I think we can certainly see a more protectionist attitude. But I would say the rest of the world, I think is trying to figure out how to reorient around that. And this is an example of that.
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A
I mean, Yossi, how awkward does protectionism make life for countries that are trying to deepen strategic partnerships?
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C
I think all the post second World War structure was about getting rid of protectionism, of free market as part of preventing wars. And here we move exactly the opposite direction. So it's instead of saying Trump, they use the word protectionism. But you know, what was it? Liberation Day, you know, with all the tariffs that were put on every country in a very random way. European Union is based on the idea of removing trade barriers. So now I think there are two elements. A, when there are more and more countries that don't recognize international norms, everything goes. And especially now we see it, whether with the United States or Russia and to extend China, whatever they decide is becoming a norm for them to behave in, those are the major countries. Then if you add that we have less and less world at best of polarity. We so got used to have either a multipolar world or a bipolar world or unipolar world. Where is the polarity right now? So we move, I think in a world that is almost Apollo. So everyone is looking for where they can get either security or to get better trade deals. And that's all of a sudden again, we are in the UK signed an agreement with India as well. Merz is there in the European Union while looking into this because the criticism is towards the United States because not only protection, only today we are also the German criticism. What happens in Greenland. So when there are, you know, all these norms of behavior disappear, you look for different allies, whether it's trade, whether it's security and everything else.
- [20:47]
A
When you're talking about polarity, Julie, I'd like to look at at brics and the whole, I mean, you can bring Venezuela into this conversation too, obviously. But is Mertz trying to make sure that BRICS does not become a threat, that it is not the new World Order?
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B
I think there's a mix of both. I mean, Again, I think it's recognizing that things are shifting in very unpredictable ways right now, trying to look at what is both economically advantageous as well as geopolitically strategic. And this is a pretty easy, an easy win in that regard with India. And you're both India and Germany are part of the G4, so to speak, which is Brazil, Japan, and then India and Germany. And so I think this is a way to sort of bolster that relationship to encounter to not only the US but maybe to some of the other brics countries as well, obviously, China included.
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A
I mean, do you think that we're seeing a globalization slowdown?
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C
I'm not so sure. I think this kind of relationship in many ways can increase globalization. I think actually what the United States is doing, it marginalizes itself while the rest of the world is looking to more interaction because they know it's based on trade. I think certain elements of globalization, which, for instance, remove jobs, that's one of the reaction in the United States. You know, you have people feel marginalized because of globalization. But I think actually the rest of the world move in a different direction. What we don't see, because there was a hope that the world that is globalized is also more secure. So what we see on certain area, more globalization, you know, seeking for more trade, more connectivity. But at the same time, it doesn't mean that it makes the world more secure, and that's that try to compensate for the insecurity that comes with this.
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A
And it certainly doesn't make it a nicer place. I mean, I wonder if economic self interest now trumps shared values.
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B
I mean, I think we're really at a tipping point with that. Right. And the events that have started this year have certainly pushed that to the forefront of many of our minds, I think. But I think anytime there's a kind of forceful action, like Venezuela, like some of the rhetoric we've heard from Trump, there's going to be a response to that. There's going to be, I think, a movement of people in the world and states in the world who say, you know, we don't want things going fully in that direction. We worked hard to establish a world order that was not the norm, and it was obviously wildly imperfect. But I do think there's going to be a response to that this year, and it may not be strong enough with a strong Trump and us going kind of full speed ahead. But I don't think we're going to see just a rolling over and going with it either.
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A
We do seem to be doing that we do seem to be rolling over right now. Who's strong enough to take him on, who's unafraid?
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B
I mean, I think what Yossi just said is this idea of the US is marginalizing itself and almost, you know, kind of of hitting these repeated own goals. Yes, it's having these short term, kind of tactical victories, but is it having any kind of long term strategic vision for itself? I do think a lot of these policies are going to backfire. And many states in Europe and many states in the global South, I think are reading this moment as one of great challenge but also a potential opportunity and are trying to see how can they reset in this moment. For some it will be very interest based, but I don't think we're going to see a complete abandonment of values. But it will take more of a willingness of others to. To kind of work in coordination in ways that perhaps they haven't before. With the gap left by the US.
- [24:22]
C
And for instance, we see the pushback on Greenland, for instance, so it happened on Ukraine, on Europe, spending more on defense. So we see that the only one that believes that the pandering to Trump is genuine is Trump himself. No one else thinks, you know, that this is genuine, whatever praise they bestow on him. In the meantime, in the background, when we see, for instance, kind of visits to India, when you see the other thing spending more on defense, pushing back on other issue, it's the planning. While there is a gap in the capabilities in order to push back not only in a constructive way, but also in a successful way.
- [25:07]
A
I mean, Julie, just to go back to the specific of India, how likely is a free trade deal between the EU and India?
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B
I mean, I think Merza's visit there certainly gave a lot of momentum to that. I think that was a bigger if before this visit. But there does seem to be a lot of confidence around this going forward. Again, this moment is one for the EU to kind of grab this. And I think India is a partner that many European states already have pretty strong trade relations with. Anyway, it's a way to provide a little bit of a counter to China and have a bit more competition there.
- [25:42]
A
I have to admit I'm slightly obsessed with India at the moment. Early tomorrow I jet off to Jaipur for a literary festival. It's obviously work. Okay, it's work. Ostensibly I'm there to interview Leo Varadka and Tim Berners Lee, amongst some others. In reality, I also think it will be a lot of fun. I've done this festival before and there are Always great parties, lots of fantastic shopping opportunities. What there isn't, though, in that part of northwestern India are beaches. So in order to bring the show to a sunny conclusion, turn to Rio. It's not all golden sands, though. A row has blown up there over exorbitant prices on beaches. O Globo newspaper has printed an article showing that renting a sun lounger is 100 reals or 16 Euros, which is, you've got to admit, really quite expensive for just being allowed to lie down for an hour. Locals are complaining. The mayor says that he'll study price controls. Now, Yossi, I know that Israel has been very successful in curbing price abuses. How did Tel Aviv cope with this very same issue?
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C
So this was decision by the mayor of Tel Aviv. It's mainly in Tel Aviv, Ron Khuldai, that is the mayor since I think, 1998. He'd been for a while there. And they decided there are two kind of pricing. One for those who live in Tel Aviv, residents of Tel Aviv, and I think for a decking chair, it's less than a pound. And if you want to know, a parcel or an umbrella, it's eight shekers, which is around less than £2. So it's just, I mean, it's, it's not exactly free market when they, when they, when actually the mayor decides or the council decide on it. But it works because it stop, you know, overcharging. People that want a nice day on, on the beach, they still make a lot of money. Now that one of the ways you probably. Julie knows, you know that too. It's if you don't want to pay for debt, but you prefer to pay for excessive prices of food, you can sit at one of these restaurants that are on the beach and you can spend time. They won't charge you for the chair, but they'll charge you a lot for the food.
- [27:51]
A
Julie, do you think this is really about beach prices or is it about fairness more broadly?
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B
I mean, these are cities where the beach is such a key part of the city and you want all the citizens to be able to access that. You want tourists when they come to feel they can access that. It's really, you know, the hub, if you will, of both these kinds of cities. And especially. And so I think trying to make it a place where everyone feels, yes, this is. I belong here. This is for me as well as for others, is quite a savvy move by a politician. And I would say, compared to a lot of us speeches, the prices are extremely low compared to what you might be charged at, you know, Ocean City or something like that.
- [28:31]
A
Sure, sure. So if either of you had a chance to regulate one thing in public life, what might it be? I know for me, it would certainly be playing your phone or device out loud without headphones.
- [28:43]
B
We have definitely about that before on the show and I can definitely get behind that one. Yeah. Josie, do you have one at the tip of your tongue?
- [28:51]
C
I just think public transport generally, if you can regulate prices, that would be affordable for everyone. So public transport for sure.
- [28:59]
B
Yes, I would have to jump on that. And gosh, what else can I say? I think bathroom access, too. I think having not having to pay for bathrooms everywhere would be a good policy.
- [29:08]
A
Absolutely. Freeways for all. Thank you very much to both of you. That's all for this edition of the Monocle Daily. A big thank. Thanks, as I say, to my panelists today, Julie Norman and Yossi Mekelberg. Today's show was produced by Tom Webb and researched by Anneliese Maynard. Our sound engineer was Elliot Greenfield. I'm Georgina Godwin here in London. And the Monocle Daily is back at the same time tomorrow with, I'm sure you'll be glad to hear, Andrew Muller back in his usual seat. That's it. Goodbye and thanks for listening.
- [29:44]
C
Sam.