Podcast Summary: The Monocle Daily

Episode: Iran tells the world that it is ‘prepared’ for war

Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Georgina Godwin
Guests: Julie Norman (Lecturer, UCL), Yossi Mekelberg (Senior Consulting Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House)

Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily delves into rising geopolitical tensions, focusing on Iran’s escalating rhetoric and readiness for conflict, the tenuous situation in Syria, and the evolving dynamics of international trade, particularly between Germany and India. The panel, led by Georgina Godwin with experts Julie Norman and Yossi Mekelberg, dissects these emerging stories, exploring both regional complexities and global implications, before ending on lighter notes of city life and fairness.

Main Discussion Segments & Insights

1. Iran: On the Brink of War

Theme: Iran’s hardening stance and the risk of military intervention

• Escalating Situation: Iran’s leaders warn they are prepared for war if the US intervenes amid deadly protests—up to 500 dead, according to some reports. (04:47)
• US Intervention Debate:
  • Julie notes that under President Trump, "all cards are on the table," referencing US military engagement in Venezuela as a precedent.
    • Quote: “A military strike can go either way. Something too light can just have a rally around the flag effect […] but something too strong can just embroil the US in that region for years to come.” —Julie Norman [05:28]
• Potential Iranian Retaliation:
  • Yossi highlights that Iran’s capacity for response extends beyond direct engagement—they could retaliate in the Gulf, against oil tankers, or even target Israel.
    • Quote: “Retaliation can be elsewhere. It can be somewhere in the Gulf, it can be stopping of tankers, oil tankers, it can be against Israel.” —Yossi Mekelberg [06:35]
• Washington’s Options:
  • Julie outlines plausible US actions: targeted drone/missile strikes, cyber attacks, harder sanctions, or support for anti-government groups.
    • Quote: “Other options of course would be cyber attacks […] even more sanctions, which it’s hard to see even further since they’re already so high.” —Julie Norman [07:49]

2. Syria: Power Struggles and Fragile Peace

Theme: Ceasefire and unrest between Syrian government, Kurds, and complex regional actors

• Recent Clashes: Fighting between the Syrian government and SDF (Kurdish-led forces) has paused, but long-standing distrust persists. (08:05)
• State-building Challenges:
  • Yossi draws a contrast between Middle Eastern and European nation-building, noting deep-rooted mistrust among minorities after decades of oppression.
    • Quote: “...After all these years of oppression, no one trusts anyone. And why should they, considering their experience?” —Yossi Mekelberg [08:49]
• Kurds’ Position:
  • The SDF’s past betrayals and their role across national borders have ensured they remain wary. Integration into the Syrian military is fraught with risk. (10:02)
• Regional Interference:
  • Multiple regional actors (Turkey, Israel, Russia) shape Syria’s trajectory, each with self-interested reasons.
• US, Russian, and Turkish Roles:
  • Julie emphasizes continued US engagement—especially concerning the Kurds—despite less media focus compared to Gaza or Iran.
  • Yossi points out Russia’s lingering influence while Turkey’s posture centers on containing Kurdish ambitions.
    • Quote: “As long as the attitude to the Kurds is to prevent any idea of Kurdish self determination [...] that’s one of the reasons they also support Assad back.” —Yossi Mekelberg [15:49]

3. International Trade: Germany, India, and the Return of Protectionism

Theme: Strategic partnerships and trade policy in a shifting world order

• Merk’s Visit to India:
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls out a “renaissance of protectionism” and seeks stronger Indo-German ties, partly to counter India’s reliance on Russian oil. (17:04)
  • Merz suggests the EU may soon move towards a free trade agreement with India.
• US Influence and Trade Policy:
  • Julie highlights how US protectionist rhetoric, tariffs, and inability to pursue a full trade deal have created opportunities for the EU and China.
    • Quote: “It’s also a way to undercut the US at this moment.” —Julie Norman [17:57]
• Multipolarity and Realignment:
  • Yossi discusses dissolution of norms post-WWII: as great powers disregard international rules, countries seek new trade and security partners.
    • Quote: “We have less and less world at best of polarity … Everyone is looking for where they can get either security or to get better trade deals.” —Yossi Mekelberg [19:38]
• BRICS and Globalization:
  • Julie sees Germany seeking to both hedge against the BRICS bloc and find new economic footholds as the world order becomes more unpredictable and less US-centric. (21:05)
• Values vs. Interests:
  • Both guests note a tension between economic self-interest and shared international values, with Julie characterizing this as a “tipping point.” (22:47)
• EU–India Trade Prospects:
  • Optimism surrounds a possible free trade deal following the Merz visit, which can serve as a counterbalance to China. (25:15)

4. Local Life: Fairness and Beach Access

Theme: Access, price regulation, and fairness in urban life

• Rio Beaches Price Scandal:
  • High hourly sun-lounger fees prompt debate over fairness. (26:40)
• Tel Aviv’s Example:
  • Yossi describes how municipal regulation in Tel Aviv keeps beach access affordable for locals, even if it means less of a free market. (26:44)
    • Quote: “It’s not exactly free market when the mayor decides on it. But it works, because it stops overcharging people that want a nice day on the beach.” —Yossi Mekelberg [27:12]
• Wider Fairness Issues:
  • Julie reflects that this is about ensuring everyone feels they “belong” in the city’s public spaces—a savvy political and civic move. (27:56)
• Personal Pet Peeves:
  • Georgina would regulate playing devices out loud; Yossi would cap public transport costs; Julie would ensure bathroom access is free. (28:30–29:08)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Military Action in Iran:
  “This is a tough decision to make, and despite Trump’s rhetoric, I think he’ll be advised to take this slowly and wisely.” —Julie Norman [05:37]
• On Syrian Trust Deficit:
  “Can I trust them? And obviously after all these years of oppression, no one trusts anyone. And why should they?” —Yossi Mekelberg [08:52]
• On Global Economic Trends:
  “What we don’t see—because there was a hope that the world that is globalized is also more secure [...] it doesn’t mean that it makes the world more secure.” —Yossi Mekelberg [22:10]
• On the Tipping Point:
  “Anytime there’s a kind of forceful action, like Venezuela, like some of the rhetoric we’ve heard from Trump, there’s going to be a response to that … We worked hard to establish a world order that was not the norm, and it was obviously wildly imperfect. But I do think there’s going to be a response to that this year.” —Julie Norman [22:47]
• On Local Fairness & Belonging:
  “[The beach is] the hub, if you will, of both these kinds of cities … trying to make it a place where everyone feels, yes, I belong here. This is for me as well as for others, is quite a savvy move by a politician.” —Julie Norman [27:56]

Key Timestamps

• 04:47 – Discussion begins on Iran’s stance and warnings of war
• 08:05 – Syria unrest and ceasefire analysis
• 13:32 – US, Russian, and Turkish roles in Syria
• 17:04 – Friedrich Merz’s India visit and trade focus
• 19:38 – Multipolarity and new alliances
• 21:05 – BRICS, globalization, and new economic strategies
• 22:47 – The world at a “tipping point” between values and interests
• 26:44 – Rio’s beach price row and Tel Aviv’s solution
• 28:30 – Panel shares what they'd regulate in public life

Tone & Style

The conversation maintains Monocle’s trademark mix of accessible expertise, global outlook, and gentle wit, with personal camaraderie between the guests and host enlivening even complex geopolitical analysis.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode offers a compelling, multidimensional view of today’s global affairs—from the dangers of escalation in Iran and the near-invisibility of Syria’s struggles, to shifting economic alliances and the ongoing tension between public interest and private gain. The analysis is sharp, current, and frequently illuminated by personal anecdotes and nuanced debate. Whether your interest lies in Middle East politics, global economics, or the price of a deck chair on the world’s beaches, there’s plenty on offer.