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- [00:00]
Philippe Malia
You're listening to the Monocle Daily, first.
- [00:02]
Terry Stiasney
Broadcast on 8th October 2025 on Monocle.
- [00:05]
Andrew Muller
Radio France waits to find out if its prime minister is resigning. After all, Texas invades Illinois at the direction of the US President. And is climbing Everest worth either the risk or the Instagram material? I'm Andrew Muller. The Monocle Daily starts. Hello and welcome to the Monocle Daily, coming to you from our studios here at Midori House in London. I'm Andrew Muller. My guests Philippe Malia and Terry Stiasney will discuss today's big stories. And we'll hear from the Wall Street Journal's Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson about their new book, looking at the modern theory and practice of prisoner swaps, including the one involving their colleague Evan Gershkovic. Stay tuned. All that and more coming up right here on the Monocle Daily.
- [01:00]
Chris Chermack
Foreign.
- [01:07]
Andrew Muller
This is the Monocle Daily. I'm Andrew Muller and I am joined today by Philippe Malia, professor of French and European politics at University College London, and Terry Stiasney, political journalist and author, most recently of Believable Lies, the Misfits who Fought Churchill's Secret Propaganda War. There you go, Terry, another clanging plug for your your fine new book, in the Service of Clangingly Plugging, which you have recently ventured. An English city with distinct military resonance.
- [01:36]
Terry Stiasney
Yes, I was in Hereford, which is a place I have never been to before. And as you say, you know, they have a new festival of military history which is drawing on, you know, their military traditions. They're the home of the sas. And if you go to Hereford Cathedral, where one of the events I was doing was there's an amazing modern stained glass window commemorating people from the sas. And also, you know, if you ever go to Hereford and it's a bit out of the way, which is why lots of people haven't been they've got the Mappa Mundi, which is the most astonishing 14th century map of the world, which is just really worth looking at how people saw the world in those days. And like Jerusalem at the center, Babylon a bit further up and the Mediterranean sort of turned on its side. And once you get sort of the idea of it, you're like, oh, I see, yeah, I get it, I get it. And they did actually know more about the world than you would imagine. They did.
- [02:19]
Andrew Muller
They'd never heard of Australia though, had they?
- [02:21]
Terry Stiasney
I don't think they got as far as Australia. Sri Lanka is certainly on there. And it, yeah, I'm not sure about Australia.
- [02:27]
Andrew Muller
And Philippe, we will be talking very shortly about French politics. But you are shortly off on safari to do some research into a particular aspect of it?
- [02:36]
Philippe Malia
Yes. I'm heading off to a town near Lille in northern France, which used to be, for over a century, a bastion of French socialism. So very left wing. Each election being won by the left, by the Socialists, until 2014, when the town hall was won over by a man from the National Rally, the far right party, very close to Marine Le Pen. Then Marine Le Pen herself got elected the local constituency. And then, since then, it's been very rock solid place for the far right. So I'm writing up a book about the mainstreaming of far right ideas in France. So I thought, let's do some field work and let's go and speak to those people.
- [03:17]
Andrew Muller
Well, we will start the show proper in France, not least as there is a non zero chance of Philippe being asked to have a lash at being Prime Minister by the time this program ends. Sebastien Lecorgnou, holder of that office as of this recording, had been asked by President Emmanuel Macron to delay his resignation at least until today, in the hope of persuading the rancorous national assembly to pass a budget and therefore not bring down yet another government. La Cornue is due to appear on French television about an hour from now and explain what he has come up with. Though preparatory briefings were actually surprisingly positive. Philippe, we are in that glorious golden hour before something actually happens in which we can just speculate wildly. What do you think he's going to say?
- [04:05]
Philippe Malia
I like the word or the verb speculate, because that's exactly the right word. You know, if I could read through a crystal ball, I would tell you what kind of political future lies ahead for France. But I'm a political scientist, so I can just speculate. And no one knows exactly what's going to happen, because Le Cornu, who is technically no longer Prime Minister, is an outgoing prime minister, was charged by Macron to form another government, having failed, or in fact, he formed a government which lasted exactly 15 hours, but that's a national record shorter than Liz Truss time in Downing Street. And we don't know what's going to happen, and we'll see. But I think it's a cliche. But let's use a cliche. If France is politically on the brink, it's chaos because there are three blocs. No one is positioned really to absolutely dominate the political game. So you've got Paul Le Cornu trying to make concessions a little bit to the center left, a little bit to the right but as soon as he makes one to his left, the right is unhappy. So how can he form a government? It's going to be very hard, I think, for Macron to avoid another snap election.
- [05:20]
Andrew Muller
Terry Lecognu would have had a case, would he not, if he'd gone to the national assembly and said, listen, if you clowns bring down another government and cause another election, the French voters are going to hate all of us, you included.
- [05:35]
Terry Stiasney
Yes, certainly. Because, you know, just given the instability at the moment, yeah, it's going to be very difficult for whoever, even with a snap election, has to form the next government. You know, there's still. The issues that are behind. All of this are not going to go away. You know, the French budget is still going to have huge holes in it that whoever is in charge will have to try to resolve. And we know that Leconi has gone into the Elysee now, just, you know, a few minutes ago, as we speak, to go in and talk to Macron and tell him, you know, what he's discovered from his last couple of days of conversations. And I think, you know, one of the problems is going to be he's trying to promise things to people potentially, like suspending the increase in the pension age, you know, which is something that's going to cost a huge amount of money. But whatever he promises the other parties, it's just not going to be enough. Because if he's, you know, granting concessions to one side, somebody else is going to demand more concessions. I mean, there were reports earlier on suggesting. Suggesting that Lecorgny was going to come back and be given another chance to have another go at being Prime Minister, you know, perhaps for her a whole two days. But his entourage was sort of denying that and saying, you know, telling people not to spread fake news.
- [06:44]
Andrew Muller
Philippe, seen from outside, there does appear among the parties in the National Assembly a what you might call an adherence to the thinking of that great philosopher Groucho Marx, specifically. Whatever it is, I'm against it. Is that fair or are there people in the national assembly actually trying to pitch a positive idea for addressing some of the things a French government is going to have to address, like, for example, those cavernous holes in its public finances.
- [07:15]
Philippe Malia
Yes, there's some. There's a lot of truth in your gracious Marx quote, in a sense, that everyone in the national assembly and of course, in the wider public, is really fed up with the whole situation. And I probably, with the exception of a few Macronite faithful, I think everyone wants a snap election, some even. And that's the case of Jean Luc Melanchon on the radical left, would want Macron to resign and have an early presidential election. But I think he's quite isolated, although I was seeing polls that now a majority of French people are in support of that thing. So Macron is not absolutely safe in his job. But a snap election seems very likely now, because I think there are three scenarios. The first one is that Le Cornue managers really to form a new government. I think it will not last long and it could be another prime minister, it would be the same second scenario, snap elections, and I think this time around the National Rally, the far right will be in a very strong position, even stronger than a year ago, to win an absolute majority. And third, as I've just said it, Macron's resignation, because once you've exhausted all your options, and we must bear in mind that all the chaos and mess started off a year ago when Macron, unfortunately, and that was probably the biggest political blunder in French political history, at least since the Second World War, was to call a snap election. Having lost a European election. He didn't have to do that. His party was the main party in National Assembly. He didn't have an absolute majority, but he could govern quite okay like that, and decided without any prior warning, without consulting with anyone in his own party, to call that election, which he lost. And I think that problem and that election sent those three blocs of equal strength and no one can govern. It's absolutely unsustainable.
- [09:12]
Andrew Muller
There will be a lot of nervous onlookers from outside France as well. Terry, obviously, more than ever in the current context, France is an absolute pillar of Europe's defence and Macron in particular has been pretty rock solid where Ukraine is concerned. It is unlikely, as Philip says, that he will announce that he's going to leave the presidency early. But a snap parliamentary election could theoretically make the national assembly, who are somewhat Ukraine sceptic, much more powerful.
- [09:46]
Terry Stiasney
Yes. I mean, that would be one of the issues there. Because if you are an incoming government and if you say, if Le Pen's party were to do better at this election, and I think it's likely that, you know, the hollowing out of the centre of French politics would be something that, you know, would continue if there were another election. Yeah. There might be a lot more reluctance to, you know, saying, if you're having to say we need austerity, we need not to spend so much money on our public spending, then why are we spending so much money, particularly on defence and I think that might be an issue that, you know, even if Macron were still imposed and were wanting to offer his support internationally to Ukraine and elsewhere in the world, that that might put a lot more pressure on him in that regard as well.
- [10:33]
Andrew Muller
Well, we will have much more on this across all our shows tomorrow morning beginning or tomorrow rather, beginning with the globalist at 7am UK time. But now to Chicago, where hundreds of troops from the Texas National Guard deployed on the order of US President Donald Trump have begun looking for something to actually do. If any of them are tuning in while milling aimlessly about Anish Kapoor's big chrome be Millennium park really is kind of cool. There's an interesting looking exhibition of 60s and 70s protest art at the Chicago History Museum. And the Cubs are hosting the brewers at Wrigley Field tonight and Friday. But it is the division Series, so tickets might be scarce and or the Friday game may not be happening if The Cubs, currently down 2 zip, can't get their act together later on. Trump has declared that Chicago is a war zone, apparently propelled to these heights of dudgeon by protests against immigration officers. TERRY Alert listeners will have discerned there a note of skepticism on my part that this is entirely necessary. Do you think it is urgent that the Texas National Guard restore law and order to the streets of Chicago?
- [11:43]
Terry Stiasney
No, I mean, it's clearly absolutely not urgent. I mean, the only urgency in it is, you know, in Donald Trump's mind that he feels the need to do this show of force, you know, not only in Chicago but in Portland as well. And what he clearly wants to do is have that fight with, with governors and with mayors and, you know, with the kind of like the mayor of Chicago is calling this illegal and unconstitutional. You know, he's even said that he thinks that the mayor and the governor should be jailed. So he's trying to do this as, as a big show and to, you know, even though, as, you know, as you say, you know, the, the mayor and the governor are signing orders saying that, you know, ice, you know, troops can't go in there, that, you know, they can't use public buildings. So they might not even be able to go to the meeting museum because they might not be allowed there.
- [12:29]
Andrew Muller
PHILIPPE as Terry notes, Trump is not content merely with deploying the National Guard to Chicago. He has said that Chicago's mayor, Brandon Johnson and the governor of Illinois, J.B. pritzker, should both be in jail. He's not really specified on what charges exactly, but it's the eternal question where Trump is concerned do you see any discernible strategy here in trying to wind things up to a potentially quite, you know, dangerous pitch? Or is Trump just saying whatever pops into his head?
- [13:02]
Philippe Malia
I think I would say that the language used by the American President is not particularly very nuanced and understated. It's quite the opposite. For instance, branding very mainstream figures and personalities of the Democratic Party as, you know, far left, dangerous activists is absolutely over the top. But he does it, he does it all the time. Also, the question of what makes a war zone, I think it seems to be probably him and his ally MAGA the only ones to see that there's a war zone. I think that the people on the ground are certainly begged to differ and I completely disagree with that. So I think it seems there's a lot of bad faith. And also he's looking for excuses to intervene. It's a show of strength, as Terry put it, and to say that really for his own electorate. And I think clearly this is very worrying because what people have been doing, in fact in those places which are all red statessorry, blue states, Democratics, run by the Democratic Party, is that people have been simply protesting against US Immigration and custom enforcement, the so called ICE and its methods and its tactics. You know, they are masked people who more and more increasingly seem like a kind of person, personal army. You know, Trump's personal army, while there, really to serve his own political interests and agenda. And I think people are seeing through that and they're protesting, which I think should be their right in a democratic country. And that's the reason why he's launching this force. And I think just the point, the National Guard troops, I reckon, have limited power. This is also very strange. Why is he sending the, the army, federal army, to a place where in fact they do not enforce the law, make arrest or searches. That's not part of their power. So I think it's a show, it's very symbolic. It's a way also to create very reminiscent of the 1920-30s and the McCarthy era, you know, the so called Red scare against communists at the time. And here you, you try to create, to provoke fear amongst the public about so called dangerous people. The use of antifa, which never defines antifa, sometimes you think it's a political party. Antifa is not a party. It's a very nebulous network of activists and they're really in a minority. That's not the problem. So lots of excuses, looking for trouble. And I think of course it's a way some critiques argue it's a way. You mentioned Andrew, the governor of Illinois, Pritzker, who said, well, that's an authoritarian march. And I think, yes, we can say it, probably.
- [15:58]
Andrew Muller
Terry, what have you made of how Pritzker and Mayor Johnson are playing this? Because I think they've been defiant. They've actually also both been at various points quite funny. Mayor Johnson has said today that this is not the first time that Donald Trump has tried to have a black man unjustly arrested. Governor Pritzker saying, I will not back down. That's probably the right things to be saying. But do we think that both these men, both being politicians, sense something of an opportunity here as well? I don't think it's news to anybody that Prisca quite fancies being the Democratic nominee in the 2028 presidential election. Should there in fact be one?
- [16:40]
Terry Stiasney
Yeah, I think there's a couple of interesting things going on here. On the one hand, you have the sort of the legal process, you know, the states and the cities trying to say, you know, the. The federal government or the National Guard from other states do not have these rights. The president simply does not have these rights. And trying to invoke, you know, the law to say, this is not what you do. And I've seen, you know, also in terms of Oregon and Portland, there's actually. Yeah. Trying to fight it slightly with humor also seems to work quite well. So I've seen a, you know, social media has been full of people saying, these are pictures from war zone Portland, and it's, you know, a lovely farmer's market or some people going and picking pumpkins or going to, you know, going for a nice walk along the river and trying to, you know, know, combat the perception that Trump is trying to create that, you know, which is for his own supporters, as Philippe rightly says, that, you know, these are big, scary cities. You wouldn't want to go there. You know, I've heard it's terrible. You see that a lot. You see people try to say that about London, and everyone says, you know, have you actually been there lately? No, I haven't. But yes, you know, I think, you know, certainly for Democratic office holders, there is a certain advantage in trying to say we are standing up for the rights of our states and our citizens. And, you know, also, we do not live in a hellhole.
- [17:52]
Andrew Muller
The other card that Trump potentially has up his sleeve, Philippe, and he has telegraphed the possibility, is invoking the Insurrection act, which would enable the dispatch of actual US army federal troops to American cities as opposed to the National Guard, the reservists who he has sent so far. If you're just looking at this from the President's point of view, though, does that play for him? Because obviously, maybe he's reasoning that most of the people in cities like, like Portland and Chicago, Los Angeles, they're not going to vote for me anyway, so what do I care? But surely lots of his voters know people who live in those cities.
- [18:31]
Philippe Malia
Yes, absolutely. And also, it seems really, it's going to inflame the whole situation. I think if you send troops and give them, you know, sort of the power to arrest people, that would create violence. And if you do that on the scale of a state or big city, that could be extremely, extremely dangerous and that could probably create a havoc in the place. So I think it seems, of course, irresponsible. And again, you may wonder on which ground would he invoke that old legislation? Because again, people on the ground, the governors, the mayor of the town of Chicago, are saying, we're fine, we don't need you. I mean, that's what they say. I think the governor of California also said it. You know, we don't want you here, Trump. We don't want your troop. We're doing fine. Why are you doing that? And of course, we know why he's doing that. He's playing very, very dangerous games for his own supporters. But of course, should a president of a big democracy such as you do that? Of course, I think a lot of people would think no. And that's the whole problem. Yeah.
- [19:51]
Andrew Muller
Well, to Mount Everest, from which several hundred climbers, associated support staff and yaks have now safely descended after a few precarious days. Trapped higher than 5,000 metres by weather, severe even by the standards of the region, hundreds of local police, firefighters and other rescue workers and volunteers joined the rescue effort. All of which has renewed focus on why all these people went up there in the first place. Around 800 people climb Everest every year. Despite a recent hike of permit fees, it is now US$15,000 in peak season. And that's before you've paid for everything else, which can run to further multiples of that. It has nevertheless become a well trodden path. An annual cleanup by the Nepalese army has since 2019 collected 119 tons of rubbish from Everest and 14 human corpses. Philippe, first of all, is this your idea of a good time? Have you ever voluntarily climbed up something you, you didn't really need to?
- [20:53]
Philippe Malia
Well, I visited Japan this summer and I went to see Mount Fuji from close Range. And I was very tempted, you know, it would be nice, I thought, to do that, to climb up there. But then I realized there were lots of people. And I think what's been happening at the Mount Everest, I think, is also happening in other parts of the world, which is sort of overpopulation. Tourists, trekkers come there. I suppose most of them are serious. They are serious walkers. However, I think, as you put it, you know, it's not sustainable for the environment. And it's certainly also there are downsides. The fact that they need, when there is poor weather, to be rescued. So all that costs a lot of money. But I think it's a trend. I think it's very much part of globalization, people traveling more. And of course, you feel probably tempted to do that even. I think when I was in Mount Fuji, a man of age 103 years climbed it. And I think that's quite remarkable. And I think more and more people want to take on those extreme sporting activities. We didn't hear of that before. I think it's. It's part of new trends. Fair enough, if people enjoy that. But of course, it has serious downsides.
- [22:16]
Andrew Muller
Well, indeed. So, Terry, about 7,000 people have now climbed Mount Everest. Is that a number beyond which it's still actually impressive? Like, would you be excited if you met. Maybe you have. If you'd met somebody who climbed Mount Everest?
- [22:33]
Terry Stiasney
Yeah, I probably think it was pretty impressive. But I think one of the things that has changed here is the sheer numbers of people that are coming to Mount Everest from, like, the Chinese, from the Tibetan side of it, rather than just the Nepalese side. I mean, you know, more than half a million people visiting the Chinese side of Mount Everest and new roads going in there. And one of the risks is that because it's got more accessible, people are just going in on a quick break. So they don't have time to acclimatize. They haven't got used to the altitude. And that, you know, that means that people are more likely to get injured or get ill. And so I think it's the fact that. That, you know, probably it's a sign of China's increasing wealth that people think, you know, great, I'll just go there for a quick, quick trip on my holiday. But, you know, the danger is that people think it's not difficult, and it is, you know, it's accessible. And that's why you end up not only with these huge queues of people trying to go up the mountain, but also with people who. Who simply aren't Prepared for it.
- [23:28]
Andrew Muller
People do die climbing it actually fairly regularly. But just before we move off this item, I wanted to ask you both in turn, quite quickly. You first, Philippe. Is there anything comparable, some sor. Great milestone of that sort? Whether it's, I don't know, finding the source of the Amazon or whatever that you would actually like to do, however many other people might already have done it.
- [23:51]
Philippe Malia
As I said, climbing a sort of very nice mountain, I mentioned Mount Fuji would be something I would consider. But I think given what it does to the environment, given the cost, you also get, given a few figures, I think probably would prefer to save my money and spend it differently. But I think there are other things that climbing mountains, there are, for instance, sporting activities that you can take on at a certain age. And it's a challenge and you relish the challenge. And if you do that, probably like, I don't know, if you like running, running a marathon when you're. And that's something probably also a lot of people take on running, cycling, swimming, whatever you want in certain exotic places. And I think again, people, yeah, probably it's a sign of wealth, it's a sign of transportation being easier. And of course that's an inevitable trend.
- [24:48]
Andrew Muller
What about you, Terry? My own people, those of Australia, we're not a great mountaineering folk. I do realize that the first person aboard Everest was a New Zealander, which is still something of a sore point with us. But our highest peak back in the old country, Mount Kosciuszko, you can kind of just stroll up in an afternoon. It's not, it's not a tough one.
- [25:08]
Terry Stiasney
I tend to favor, you know, a nice Alp with, you know, a restaurant on the top of it. You might have a restaurant and ideally.
- [25:14]
Andrew Muller
Some sort of cable car down.
- [25:16]
Terry Stiasney
But I say everyone I know seems to be doing these long hikes, whether it's like Hadrian's Wall or a cross country or some long national path. And occasionally I sort of think, should I. Should I do that? And I can again, nice one. Through the Alps, bit of sort of northern Italy, Austria maybe, but I always think might be nice to do. And I never actually look into doing it.
- [25:34]
Andrew Muller
Well here in the uk. A blow to a nation's fondly indulged self image of absolutely not being a bunch of simpering, rope jumping, Fotherington Thomases who cannot hold their beer. Research by boffins has determined that fully, rather one in three UK workers has phoned in sick the morning after a works drink event or merely unofficial wassailing. With colleagues, we learn, furthermore, that 41% of 18 to 24 year olds have been too hungover to work at least once, rising to 47% of 25 to 34 year olds. Terry, you are here at this table speaking on behalf of every single person in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Does this surprise you? And more to the point, have you ever phoned in sick with a hangover?
- [26:22]
Terry Stiasney
I'm surprised the figure is that low.
- [26:26]
Andrew Muller
This has got one of those surveys.
- [26:28]
Terry Stiasney
These are young people who did not work in a British Office during the 1990s and possibly were constantly drunk, as far as I know.
- [26:37]
Andrew Muller
Possibly were not journalists, possibly were not born. Probably, yes, they were not born.
- [26:42]
Terry Stiasney
I think what people did more often, certainly from what I can remember of those days, is that you never phoned in sick the day after the office party because everyone knew that that was why you phoned in sick. So everybody turned up diligently and sort of looked glassy eyed. I noticed in the article it said there's a productivity crisis of people who are coming to work with hangovers. And yeah, that would be something. I would recognize.
- [27:03]
Andrew Muller
Philippe, as an outsider to this country, much as I am. Are you somewhat baffled though, by the British culture of after work boozing generally? Is this as much of a thing in France? Or do you all go, as stereotype would suggest, to a. A stylish little cafe, have a small glass of wine each and discuss philosophy while somebody plays mournful accordion in the background?
- [27:28]
Philippe Malia
Yes, I think when I came to work and live in this country, that was over 30 years ago, quite a long time ago. Yes, I was a bit struck by this after work drink culture. The fact that, you know, in academia, not simply in journalism or business, people would, would say, hey, let's go and have a drink or two. That's when the or two, that becomes a little bit worrying. And because yes, it can't be one drink, it's at least two, if not more, if you're accompanied by a third or fourth person. So yes, there was a lot of drinking and I think probably things have receded a little bit since then. And Also I remember 30 years ago, the first was a young lecturer. So probably students would confide to me more easily and say, well, last week yesterday I got completely smashed and talking. I discovered, you know, the concept of binge drinking, for instance, I never heard of that before, or at least I had not practiced it. And it's the quantity of alcohol being absorbed in a very short, limited amount of time without eating Food with it. That's really the main crime for a French person. You drinking alcohol is fine, but if you don't eat, this is barbaric.
- [28:44]
Andrew Muller
This, Terry, is the thing that has always baffled me. It's that thing of just leaving the office, going to the pub and thinking, could we not stop and get something to eat on the way? Rather than let's all get completely hammered and then have a rancid.
- [28:57]
Terry Stiasney
Just one packet of crisps for the table.
- [28:59]
Andrew Muller
Exactly. Have a rancid kebab near the tube stop at 11 o'.
- [29:05]
Terry Stiasney
Clock. Yeah, that was. I mean, but, you know, the culture has changed so much, I think, you know, I, you know, harking back to, you know, I remember in sort of offices in the 90s, there would be places that would have drinks, trolleys come round, you know, towards the end of a radio show, like, you know, we should have one coming in now with a nice gin and tonic. That was literally what happened every day. And the idea of, you know, light sort of being abstemious was not going to the pub on a Monday, you know, that was really how it was. So I think it has changed a bit.
- [29:32]
Andrew Muller
Well, on that happy nostalgic thought, Terry Stiasney and Philippe Malia. Thank you both, both for joining us. Finally, on Today's show, on August 1, 2024, one of the most extraordinary prisoner swaps in history between Russia, the us, Germany and other allies took place on an airport tarmac in Turkey. Among the 26 people exchanged were Russian spies, dissidents and American prisoners, including the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Two of Gershkovich's colleagues at the Journal, Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson, have written about the murky new world of prisoner exchanges in a new book entitled Swap A of the New Cold War. They spoke to Monocle's Chris Chermack, who began by asking Joe about how Evan Gershkovich has been doing since his release.
- [30:17]
Joe Parkinson
Evan is doing amazingly well, especially considering everything that he's been through. I think it was very special for us at the Wall Street Journal to watch the way that he seemed to be dealing with and those images from inside the glass cage in a Moscow courthouse, just how positive and stoic he seemed to be in that kind of unimaginable situation. He's been busy writing his memoir. It's going to Absolutely Unmissable coming out next summer, as far as we're aware.
- [30:45]
Chris Chermack
Drew, Evan and his story was such a reason for writing this book, of course, but how much did you actually know about this whole modern day, post Cold War return to Cold War spy game that was underway before you started researching all of this.
- [31:03]
Drew Hinshaw
This became for us a window into how the world really works. We had one colleague take, taken and set out. We were asked by the paper to do the investigative work of understanding why he'd been taking, what the game that was being played here was. And very quickly we realized that this was at the heart of the US Russia relationship, that Russia was stockpiling Americans. A history teacher, former Marines, basketball player Brittney Griner, our friend Evan, other journalists. And what Russia wanted with these prisoners was to trade them for spies. Deep cover illegal spies based in Slovenia, a murderer based in Germany, various hackers and cybercriminals held in America. In some ways, this is a return to the Cold War because we all saw the spy swaps where, you know, spies cross each other in East Germany, on the bridge in Berlin. But that was spies for spies. What was really piratical and frightening was Russia was playing a game where it was exchanging basically ordinary, if notable, Americans for spies and even a murderer. And that was a threshold that had never been crossed, even in the Cold War.
- [32:12]
Chris Chermack
Drew, you and your colleagues obviously found yourself at the center of this, not only investigating, as you described it, you were sort of set out to investigate why Evan was taken. But then there is also this whole campaign rallying support for him, securing his release. And this is also such a strange element of this world, the fact that different prisoners and their families are having to campaign on their own behalf, raising their own cases, profiles. Was there an understanding at the Journal that kind of maintaining pressure? The profile of this case was almost directly linked to whether Evan would be released or not.
- [32:50]
Drew Hinshaw
That is one of the strangest things about this modern game of hostage trading, of bartering in prisoners, is that there is really no comparison to the power of a family member or someone's friends to go out there and humanize them. We embarked in this world thinking this is a world of CIA spies meeting FSB officers in back alleys in the Middle east and other places. And to some extent it is. But it's also a story of ordinary Americans who woke up one morning to find out that their loved ones, one was in prison and having to go out there and figure out how to convince their government and the Russian government to do a deal.
- [33:33]
Joe Parkinson
I would just add to that and say that one of the really fascinating things about this world, and it's this hidden world of diplomacy that lurks just beneath the surface. There are these extraordinary characters Everywhere. We've alluded to a few of them already in this conversation. The deep cover spies, the ordinary families, they're really the heart and soul of the book. Book people trying to navigate complicated bureaucracies and compete with much bigger institutions to try and bring their loved ones home. But also in this space are a bunch of people you would never expect to find celebrities. Some of the top, you know, executives from Silicon Valley playing a back channel role, often moving messages between Moscow and Washington at a time where the countries obviously have been become much, much more antagonistic. It is really a spy thriller with all of these kind of contemporary characteristics of sort of celebrity culture for the Internet age.
- [34:27]
Chris Chermack
Just to follow up on that, Joe, to bring it to the moral side of this, because that is also what's interesting. There was clearly some awareness even among the journal, among families, that if you are looking for a prisoner exchange, campaigning who is being released on the other side was a very difficult topic. And I wonder also if you could go into the politics there. There was this fascinating, as you described, basically a switch in the US Administration from saying we don't negotiate to creating an office that dealed with hostage relations. Is there a feeling that that encouraged, discouraged hostage taking by Vladimir Putin? Or was this all just a sort of inevitable reality that they had no choice but to deal with?
- [35:11]
Philippe Malia
With?
- [35:12]
Joe Parkinson
What Putin managed to touch on with this strategy is this is several sort of fundamental asymmetries. Russia is an autocratic society where there's not really public pressure to bring people home. America is a free society where there's public pressure from loved ones, from institutions, from all sorts of places. And so the government is really caught between a rock and a hard place. The fact is, is that countries like Russia and other autocracies like China and Venezuela and others do this because it works. And that puts whatever administration, the Trump administration, the Biden administration and their predecessors in a really, really tough position. Because if you start letting people go, you might encourage the practice more. But if you don't let people go, then what differentiates you as a free society from the unfree society? And I think what the Biden administration tried to do after Trump's more kind of personalized sort of freewheeling approach to this was to create a structure to systematize it. This. And what they ended up managing to pull off was this incredible prisoner swap last year that brought evan home and 25 other people.
- [36:21]
Chris Chermack
Drew. One of the sort of breaking news aspects, I suppose, of your book is though, that this swap could have happened earlier and could have included the Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny. He died at a time when a prisoner exchanged change had actually been agreed, amazingly, even signed off by Vladimir Putin himself. Just walk us through that moment in time.
- [36:45]
Drew Hinshaw
We at the Journal knew about this. We knew that there was an agreement to at least pursue a prisoner exchange, that the freed a murderer from a German jail cell, Waldem Krasakov. He killed a Putin opponent in Berlin. And in return, Germany would gain get Russia's most famous dissident, Alexei Navalny, who had survived all these poisonings and packaged into it, we would get our friend and colleague Evan Gershkovich back and a whole bunch of other Americans would come home. And we believed it was like only a few weeks away. We had written the stories, Alexei Navalny free. Evan Gershkovich free. We'd written these stories ready to hit publish the moment they walked. And then all of a sudden the news breaks that Alexei Navalny had done died in prison. Nobody saw that coming. And when it happened, it hit us like a baseball bat to the chest. We thought, that's it. Evan's going to be in jail for years. Navalny is dead. And at that point, we didn't think any deal was possible. But what we didn't know is that was the very moment when there was a little bit of movement and things were starting to shake loose that would ultimately bring this deal to fruition.
- [37:54]
Andrew Muller
Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson from the Wall Street Journal there speaking to Chris Chermack about their new book, a Secret History of the New Cold War. That is all for this edition of the Daily. Thanks to our panelists today, Philippe Malia and Terry Stiasny. The show was produced by Hassan Anderson and researched by Joanna Moser. Our sound engineer was Steph Chungu. I'm Andrew Muller here in London. The Daily is back at the same time tomorrow.
- [38:15]
Philippe Malia
Thanks for listening, Sam.