Podcast Summary: The Monocle Daily – Is France heading for a snap election?

Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Andrew Muller
Panelists: Philippe Malia (professor of French and European politics, UCL), Terry Stiasney (political journalist and author)
Special Guests: Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson (Wall Street Journal)

Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily centers on France’s intensifying political deadlock, the plausible scenario of a snap parliamentary election, and its national and international ramifications—particularly concerning Europe and Ukraine. The panel also dissects unprecedented US political theater as Texas’ National Guard enters Illinois, reflects on the modern craze for climbing Mount Everest, and considers the evolving UK office drinking culture. The episode concludes with an interview about high-stakes 21st-century prisoner swaps between Russia, the US, and allies.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. French Political Crisis: Snap Election Looming?

(Discussion begins ~03:16)

• Backdrop:

  • Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is on the verge of resignation after his government survived just 15 hours—the shortest in French history.
  • President Emmanuel Macron tasked Lecornu with forming yet another government to prevent a snap election, but political gridlock dominates.

• Three-Bloc Stalemate:

  • France’s National Assembly is evenly split between Macron’s centrists, the left, and the far right—leaving no group able to govern alone.
  • Philippe notes the consequences of Macron’s decision to call a snap election in 2024 after losses in the European election:

    “Probably the biggest political blunder in French political history, at least since the Second World War... It’s absolutely unsustainable.” (Philippe, 08:40)

• Panel Speculation: What comes next?

  • Forming a new government is highly unlikely as concessions to one side alienate the others.
  • Snap elections now appear almost inevitable, likely strengthening Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
  • Macron’s resignation is a remote but increasingly discussed scenario, especially as a majority of French voters now support it in polling.

• Wider Implications:

  • Macron’s instability is concerning across Europe, especially for the Ukraine war effort; a far-right-led assembly could complicate French support for Ukraine.
  • Terry underscores:

    “If Le Pen’s party were to do better... the hollowing out of the center of French politics would continue... There might be a lot more reluctance [to fund defense and support Ukraine].” (Terry, 09:46)

Notable Quote:

“If France is politically on the brink, it’s chaos because there are three blocs. No one is positioned really to absolutely dominate the political game.”—Philippe (04:44)

2. US Domestic Drama: Texas 'Invades' Illinois

(Segment begins ~10:33)

• Situation:

  • Hundreds of Texas National Guard troops, ordered by President Trump, are deployed in Chicago, allegedly to restore order amid protests against immigration enforcement.

• Political Theater & Legal Challenges:

  • Panelists agree the move is performative (“a show of strength”) and legally dubious.
  • The mayor of Chicago and Illinois’ governor both resist, with Trump escalating rhetoric (calling for their jailing).

• Strategic Analysis:

  • Philippe sees historical echoes of McCarthyism and “red scare” tactics:

    “It’s a way... to provoke fear amongst the public about so called dangerous people... a way to create trouble.” (Philippe, 14:37)

• Local vs. Federal Power:

  • National Guard have limited powers; sending them is more symbolic and aimed at rallying Trump’s base.
  • Terry notes the political opportunity for Democratic officials to demonstrate resistance and even employ humor on social media to undercut Trump’s “war zone” narrative.

• Escalation Concerns:

  • Possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act, deploying regular US Army troops, would dangerously raise the stakes.
  • Philippe warns:

    “It seems... it’s going to inflame the whole situation. If you send troops and give them, you know, sort of the power to arrest people, that would create violence.” (Philippe, 18:31)

Memorable Moment:

“This is not the first time that Donald Trump has tried to have a black man unjustly arrested.” — Mayor Brandon Johnson, cited by Terry (16:08)

3. Everest: The Climber's Dream or Nightmare?

(Discussion from 19:50)

• New Normal on the Roof of the World:

  • Hundreds rescued after being stranded in extreme weather.
  • Climbing Everest is now a mass activity (permit alone costs $15,000), with 800 climbers annually, tons of trash, and regular fatalities.

• Overtourism & Changing Demographics:

  • Surge in climbers, especially from the Chinese/Tibetan side, raises risks as participants are less acclimatized and sometimes inexperienced.
  • Terry contextualizes:

    “One of the risks is... because it’s got more accessible, people are just going in on a quick break... more likely to get injured or get ill.” (Terry, 22:32)

• Motivations & Reflections:

  • Philippe prefers less impactful adventures, considering costs and environmental effects.
  • The panel compares mountain climbing to other endurance activities that symbolize personal challenge in an era of global affluence.

• British vs. French Attitudes:

  • Andrew humorously contrasts Australia’s laid-back mountain culture with Alpine tradition:

    “Our highest peak back in the old country, Mount Kosciuszko, you can kind of just stroll up in an afternoon.” (Andrew, 25:07)

4. UK Office Boozing: Enduring or Evolving?

(Conversation from 25:33)

• Survey Results:

  • One in three UK workers have called in sick after work drinks, with 41% of 18–24-year-olds too hungover to work at least once.

• Panel’s Anecdotes & Observations:

  • Culture has shifted: from daily drinks trolleys in the ‘90s to more tempered, cautious office environments today.
  • Terry quips:

    “I'm surprised the figure is that low... These are young people who did not work in a British office during the 1990s.” (Terry, 26:21)

• French Perspective:

  • Philippe describes his surprise at British after-work drinking culture and contrasts it with the French approach:

    “You drinking alcohol is fine, but if you don't eat, this is barbaric.” (Philippe, 28:35)

5. Interview: Prisoner Swaps in the New Cold War

(Begins 29:32, Interview by Chris Chermak)

Background:

• On August 1, 2024, a complex 26-person prisoner swap took place between Russia, the US, Germany, and allies—involving reporters, spies, dissidents, and convicted murderers.
• Guests Drew Hinshaw and Joe Parkinson discuss their book “Swap – A Secret History of the New Cold War.”

Key Insights

• Personal Stories and Systemic Change:

  • The campaign to free journalist Evan Gershkovich put the Wall Street Journal at the center of “how the world really works”—revealing that Russia now trades ordinary Americans for high-value spies and criminals.
  • Drew:

    “What was really piratical and frightening was Russia was... exchanging basically ordinary, if notable, Americans for spies and even a murderer. That was a threshold that had never been crossed...” (31:20)

• Modern Hostage Diplomacy:

  • The power of public campaigns by family, friends, and media is significant:

    “There is really no comparison to the power of a family member or someone's friends to go out there and humanize them.” (Drew, 32:50)

• Moral and Political Dilemma:

  • Negotiating with autocratic regimes creates an agonizing trade-off for Western democracies.
  • Joe:

    “If you start letting people go, you might encourage the practice more. But if you don't let people go, then what differentiates you as a free society from the unfree society?” (35:11)

• Navalny’s Death and the Swap:

  • The historic deal could have seen Alexei Navalny himself freed before his untimely death:

    “We believed it was like only a few weeks away... And then all of a sudden the news breaks that Alexei Navalny had died in prison. Nobody saw that coming. And when it happened, it hit us like a baseball bat to the chest.” (Drew, 36:44)

Notable Quotes

• On French Political Stalemate:

  “If France is politically on the brink, it’s chaos because there are three blocs. No one is positioned really to absolutely dominate the political game.”
  — Philippe Malia (04:44)

• On Trump’s Rhetoric:

  “The language used by the American President is not particularly very nuanced and understated. It’s quite the opposite.”
  — Philippe Malia (13:02)

• On Modern Hostage Diplomacy:

  “There is really no comparison to the power of a family member or someone's friends to go out there and humanize them.”
  — Drew Hinshaw (32:50)

• On Office Drinking in Britain vs. France:

  “Drinking alcohol is fine, but if you don't eat, this is barbaric.”
  — Philippe Malia (28:35)

Important Timestamps

• 03:16 — Start of French political segment
• 09:46 — Implications of snap election for European/Ukraine policy
• 10:33 — Texas National Guard deployed to Chicago
• 14:37 — Echoes of McCarthyism in US political theater
• 19:50 — Crowd-sourcing Everest: the new mass-climbing phenomenon
• 25:33 — UK’s hangover culture: survey & panel reflections
• 29:32 — Start of prisoner swap interview
• 36:44 — Revelations about the failed Navalny exchange

Memorable Moments

• Mayor Brandon Johnson’s cutting response to Trump’s threats:
  “This is not the first time that Donald Trump has tried to have a black man unjustly arrested.” (16:08)

• Panel’s mutual disbelief at the moderation of the UK’s reported hangover rates.

• Sobering account of just how close Alexei Navalny came to being freed in a major prisoner swap before his death.

Tone

The panel maintains Monocle’s signature dry wit, sharp skepticism, and analytical depth throughout, blending humor (particularly about office drinks and mountain climbing) with sobering analysis of rising political instability and authoritarian tactics at home and abroad.

For a comprehensive understanding of current European, American, and global challenges, as well as the personalities and processes shaping today’s headlines, this episode packs sharp commentary, international scope, and exclusive reporting.