The Monocle Daily – Episode Summary

Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Panelists: Elizabeth Braw (Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council) & Tom Rivers (Former ABC London Correspondent)
Special Guest: Joel S. Witt (Former US State Department Official)

Overview

This episode centers on escalating security and political developments in Ukraine and the United States:

• The impending US-Ukraine security deal and prospects for peace negotiations.
• The political fallout in the US after the killing of a Minneapolis nurse by masked border patrol agents, challenging Republican Party unity on law enforcement.
• Security responses to sabotage of undersea Baltic cables, aviation carry-on regulations, and insights from Joel S. Witt’s new book about the US failure to prevent North Korea’s nuclearization.

The tone is incisive, occasionally wry, with sharp exchanges and candid commentary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the US-Ukraine Security Deal Ready to be Signed?

Main Takeaways:

• President Zelensky stated that a US security agreement for Ukraine is “100% ready,” awaiting time and place for signing ([03:27]).
• Zelensky also suggested 2027 as a possible date for Ukraine’s EU membership.
• Zelensky’s optimism is interpreted more as strategic nudging than objective assessment.

Panel Analysis:

• Tom Rivers ([04:19]–[05:16]):
  • Sees Zelensky as “running out of road,” trapped by military and diplomatic realities.
  • Key stumbling block: Russian demands for the remaining 10% of Donetsk and Luhansk, which includes crucial high ground.
  • "The map’s gonna look very, very close to Minsk II, if you roll the clock back a few years."
• Elizabeth Braw ([05:29]–[06:58]):
  • Argues Zelensky’s optimism is aimed at influencing the US, especially under leaders like Trump.
  • “He knows this is what he has to do in order to nudge things along and also maybe to put a little bit of daylight between himself and Vladimir Putin, who never expresses optimism about anything.”
  • Despite ongoing negotiations, Russian attacks, including on civilian infrastructure, continue.

On Trusting US Security Guarantees:

• Tom Rivers ([07:12]):
  • Ukraine has little choice but to trust US guarantees, given Western fatigue and resource constraints:
    “You’re going to run out of human beings eventually. You’re going to run out of money, too.”
• Elizabeth Braw ([08:18]):
  • Zelensky’s insistence on “respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity” likely leaves space for a frozen conflict, since an actual full restoration is unlikely without a ceasefire.
  • Notes “the paradoxical, difficult, complicated and frankly, depressing” negotiations, as fighting continues during talks.

2. Republicans and the Behavior of ICE After Minneapolis Shooting

Context:
Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretty was killed in the street by masked US border patrol agents. The incident causes rifts in GOP unity over law enforcement and guns.

Panel Analysis:

• Tom Rivers ([10:32]–[11:51]):
  • Notes a significant backlash, even among Republicans: “About a half dozen now, Republicans, Senators that are saying, look, this is not looking good.”
  • Public dissatisfaction: “56% of American voters nationally do not like the way ICE is enforcing its pressure in Minneapolis right now.”
• Elizabeth Braw ([12:53]):
  • Surprised by the array of Republicans (from centrist to MAGA) voicing concern.
  • “Nobody could contest the notion that this has gone too far. If you see, if you consider what sort of news is coming out of the US at the moment, you see somebody being shot by masked agents and you wonder what’s going on in America. These people realize it’s not a good look.”

Notable Quotes & Exchanges:

• [14:39] Andrew Muller:
  • “Why are they wearing masks, though? Shouldn’t they be accountable to the people, not the other way around?”
• [15:33] Tom Rivers:
  • “There will be consequences. But again, I don’t think anybody, the vast majority of Americans don’t like this, but they want to know, how do you get to the problem in Minnesota?”
• [16:14] Elizabeth Braw:
  • On Trump’s new conciliatory tone:
    “He has clearly noticed that a large chunk of the American public is horrified. And America’s partners in the world…are horrified. And on top of that, major companies based in Minnesota have spoken out.”

Cultural Insight ([17:54]):

• Tom Rivers describes “Minnesota Nice” — a quietly accommodating but firm regional attitude — to explain local political shifts.

3. Securing Undersea Baltic Cables: Finland, Russia & NATO

Background:
Undersea cables (for electricity and data) have become targets for alleged Russian sabotage.

Panel Analysis:

• Elizabeth Braw ([19:49]–[21:30]):
  • Praises Baltic and Nordic pragmatism and collaboration, focusing on Finland’s new surveillance center proposal.
  • Notes a persistent dilemma:
    “What are you going to do if you see a vessel that is behaving suspiciously? Are you going to detain it even though it’s outside your territorial waters?”
• Tom Rivers ([21:36]–[22:35]):
  • Data is mostly carried by undersea cables, not satellites: “It’s above 5% satellite, it’s 95% under the water.”
  • Disrupting cables is a low-cost way to cause international havoc.
• Elizabeth Braw ([23:01]–[24:58]):
  • International law (UNCLOS) limits responses to sabotage outside territorial waters.
  • "Our governments are doing is being nice, law abiding governments while other governments and entities violate away…with joy, but certainly with enthusiasm, with energy."
  • Laws were designed when it was assumed cables were too valuable to attack; that assumption is being upended.

4. Aviation Security: New Liquid & Laptop Rules at Heathrow

Overview:
Heathrow’s adoption of 3D scanners is making the 100ml liquid rule obsolete for carry-on bags.

Panelists’ (Tongue-in-Cheek) Reflections:

• Tom Rivers ([27:08]):
  • Enthusiastic about not needing to remove liquids or laptops: “We’re rolling the clock back and that’s only, only a good thing.”
• Elizabeth Braw ([28:03]):
  • Shares her ingrained airport habits: "I have this plastic bag permanently in my carry on suitcase…"
  • Recalls how airport security changed after the 2006 transatlantic bomb plot.
• Tom Rivers ([29:12]):
  • Skeptical about the true effectiveness of the previous safety restrictions.

5. Interview: Joel S. Witt—America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea

Main Insights:

• Wishful Thinking & US Overconfidence
  ([32:48] Joel Witt): “If you look at US foreign policy over the past 40 years, there are a number of instances where we've overestimated our ability to achieve our goals.”
• North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions & Missed Chances
  ([35:07]): “By the time I engaged with them, that was definitely the case…they were seriously interested in nuclear weapons because of their experience during the Korean War.”
• Lost Opportunities for Denuclearization
  ([36:10]): The 2019 Hanoi Summit was the “most serious opportunity”—but Trump “didn’t have patience to sit through the whole summit, and he left direction.”
• Now Impossible?
  ([37:12]): “No, it is not possible anymore to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal…the opportunity to achieve denuclearization has passed us by.”
• Future Prospects
  ([38:34]): If Northeast Asian arms race escalates: “May result in all the countries having nuclear weapons, not just North Korea, but South Korea and Japan.”

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Ukraine Negotiations:
  • “Zelensky knows this is what he has to do in order to nudge things along…and also maybe to put a little bit of daylight between himself and Vladimir Putin, who never expresses optimism about anything.”
    — Elizabeth Braw [05:29]
• On Political Fallout in Minnesota:
  • “Nobody could contest the notion that this has gone too far. If you see…somebody being shot by masked agents and you wonder what’s going on in America.”
    — Elizabeth Braw [12:53]
• On Undersea Cables & Law:
  • “What our governments are doing is being nice, law abiding governments while other governments and entities violate away…with enthusiasm, with energy.”
    — Elizabeth Braw [23:01]
• On North Korea:
  • “No, it is not possible anymore to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal…because North Korea isn’t really interested in engagement with the United States anymore.”
    — Joel Witt [37:12]

Notable Moments & Timestamps

• [04:19] – Tom Rivers on Zelensky’s “lack of road” and negotiation parallels to Paris peace talks.
• [07:12] – US guarantees for Ukraine: “You’re going to run out of human beings eventually.”
• [12:53] – GOP dismay at ICE’s optics after the Minneapolis shooting.
• [21:36] – The vulnerability of undersea cables and Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
• [27:08] – New airport scanners and the end of the 100ml rule.
• [32:48] – Joel Witt’s perspective on US foreign policy miscalculations.
• [37:12] – Witt’s judgment: denuclearization of North Korea is now impossible.

Episode Flow

• Warm banter about maritime broadcasting and books-in-progress.
• Deep dive into Ukraine’s diplomatic state and Zelensky’s maneuvering.
• Sharp pivot to US political crisis and Republican disunity after a deadly ICE incident.
• Regional security focus: Baltic cables, Russian interference, and international law headaches.
• Lighter interlude on airport baggage—a slice of travel nostalgia and frustration.
• Sobering expert interview on the US’s failure to stop North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
• Spirited, collegial but critical conversations, delivered with humor and urgency.

This summary captures the core themes, arguments, and notable moments of the episode. All major sections include key attributions and timestamps for reference.