The Monocle Daily (3 December 2025): NATO Foreign Ministers, Ukraine Peace Prospects & More

Episode Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily, hosted by Andrew Muller, features journalist Tessa Shishkovitz and defence researcher Jacob Parakilis as panelists. The focus is on current geopolitics, particularly NATO’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe’s ongoing financial ties to Russia, the new Australian ban on social media for children, and cultural trends in hospitality and education. Highlights include a nuanced discussion of peace negotiations for Ukraine, the shifting role of American leadership in NATO, energy sanctions against Russia, and a feature on a Norwegian folk high school from the documentary "Folk Tales."

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. NATO, Ukraine and Russia: Peace Prospects and Geopolitical Posturing

• Putin’s Reluctance for Peace

  • Recent talks between U.S. envoys and Russia made little progress, as summarized by Andrew Muller's tongue-in-cheek intro:
    • “We are shocked, shocked to discover that President Vladimir Putin is not tremendously interested in any imminent settlement of the war in Ukraine.” (05:00)
  • Tessa Shishkovitz recounts her interview with Ivan Krastev, noting:
    • “Putin wants a peace deal that is so humiliating to Zelenskyy that he’s gone... that is, of course, what the Ukrainians don’t want, but also the Europeans don’t want that, and NATO… also don’t want.” (05:49)

• Impossibility of Compromise

  • Jacob Parakilis explains:
    • “There’s a territorial issue. Ukraine needs territorial integrity… the problem is that Russia does not want a bright line on the border… that territorial integrity piece is the key to preventing Ukraine from fully and irreversibly going to the West.” (06:55)
  • Both emphasize that Russia’s goal is not just territory, but leverage over Ukraine’s political system.

• NATO and U.S. Engagement

  • American Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s absence from the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting is interpreted as a significant signal.
    • Shishkovitz: “It's quite a clear sign that they are saying you can be happy if we inform you after the fact… everyone's waiting for what America does.” (09:24)
    • “You think sometimes maybe it’s not even so important if Ukraine is in NATO, since we don’t know if America will be in NATO in the next 10 years.” (10:20)
  • Overall, European nations are more united on Ukraine support than in pre-war years.

• Outlook on War Duration

  • Parakilis offers a historical perspective:
    • “There’s an inertia to wars… the victory conditions were incompatible. Ukraine isn't Iran, Russia isn't Iraq and vice versa… but there is a sustenance, a sort of inertia behind that that can keep going for a remarkably long amount of time.” (12:17)
  • Panel agrees it is likely the conflict will endure for the foreseeable future.

2. Europe’s Energy Dependence: Banning Russian Gas by 2027

• EU’s Continued Payments to Russia

  • Despite sanctions, EU still pays Russia over 1 billion euros per month for energy; top buyers are Hungary, Slovakia, France, Netherlands, and Belgium (13:15).
  • The EU will ban all Russian gas imports by 2027.

• Theoretical What-ifs and Realignments

  • Parakilis posits:
    • “If something like this had been done in 2014, I think we'd be in a very different world. But Russia’s outreach goes beyond Europe…” (14:06)
    • “There’s a world where this level of disconnection… fundamentally changes Putin’s behavior. There's another world where… he re-establishes those deep relationships elsewhere.” (14:35)

• Hungary: Outlier in EU Sanctions

  • Hungary, benefiting from exceptions, is criticized for its “pro-Putin” and “pro-Trump” stance:
    • “You see that this man [Orban] is just a very good tactician… always a thorn within the European Union, which is really good for Putin.” –Shishkovitz (16:16)
  • Hungary also has domestic political motives tied to its approach.

• Strategic Shift in EU Energy Policy

  • Parakilis on the ban’s significance:
    • “There’s a really clear, obvious congruence between the green and resilience agenda and the security and US foreign policy goals… The big objectives of the EU are aligned and so it's going to be hard to change that.” (19:31)

3. Australia’s Ban on Social Media for Under 16s

• Effectiveness and Enforcement Doubts

  • Australia bans under-16s from social media, with technology companies facing steep fines for non-compliance (21:06).
  • Shishkovitz is skeptical:
    • “I think kids are much too smart to let companies lock them out of anything… Authority wanes very quickly.” (21:06)
  • Parakilis elaborates on the complexity:
    • “The tools that policymakers have are blunt. They are sledgehammers. In the Australian example, I mean, is the potential harm from viewing content or is it from participating?” (23:19)

• Broader Concerns

  • Panelists agree something must be done to protect children, but regulatory measures may be difficult to enforce and risk being outmaneuvered by tech-savvy youths.

4. Quirky Design Trends: The Hotel Bathroom Door Crisis

• Open-Plan Bathrooms in Hotels Debate

  • The strange trend of hotels with transparent or absent bathroom doors is discussed humorously.
  • Shishkovitz: "It’s a design gag that I personally liked, because it’s sort of breaking down walls… But if you’re not traveling alone, I think the answer is very, very clear." (25:37)
  • Parakilis recounts: "The fanciest hotel I ever stayed in was a hotel in Dubai...a beautifully inscribed glass curtain wall with gold inlay, obviously. Had I been with my family, I would have struggled somewhat more with it." (26:51)

• General Trend Commentary

  • The panel likens this to other overthought design trends, e.g., restaurants ditching plates for “novelty” serving options.
    • Muller: “Do not fix what isn’t broken.” (28:02)
  • All agree that, while some trends are harmless, privacy in bathrooms remains essential.

5. Documentary Feature: "Folk Tales" and the Norwegian Folk High School Tradition

• Interview with Director Heidi Ewing

  • Explores the film covering a year at a Northern Norwegian folk high school where teens engage in dog sledding, outdoor living, and self-discovery.

• Key Insights from Ewing (31:34 – 36:17):

  • On finding the story:
    • “I read a book by an American dog sledder… She found out about these folk high schools, which is a Scandinavian tradition, that her version of a G, but with much more depth, I'd say.” (31:34)
  • On filming:
    • “If I had known how impossible it is to photograph dog sledding, I would have thought twice about making this movie… The drone kept falling out of the sky, the propellers would freeze. The batteries would only last for a couple of hours. It was almost impossible to shoot the movie.” (34:03)
  • On the generational takeaway:
    • “I think this is a very tender generation that's thinking a lot about the world around them and about their future and the planet's future. It gave me hope.” (35:43)

Memorable Quotes

• On NATO & Ukraine:

  • "Putin wants a peace deal that is so humiliating to Zelenskyy that he's gone... that is, of course, what the Ukrainians don’t want." –Shishkovitz (05:49)
  • “As long as Putin sits on a square meter of Ukrainian soil and says 'we can't agree,' he achieves that objective of making this impossible circle to square in terms of Ukraine's Western turn.” –Parakilis (07:10)

• On War Inertia:

  • “There is a sustenance, there is a sort of inertia behind that that can keep going for a remarkably long amount of time.” –Parakilis (12:28)

• On the Hotel Bathroom Trend:

  • “I came to the conclusion that having a door at a hall toilet is a very good idea in general. A little bit of privacy at certain moments is recommended.” –Shishkovitz (28:33)

• On Generation Z (Folk Tales documentary):

  • “I think that this is a very tender generation that's thinking a lot about the world around them and about their future and the planet's future. It gave me hope.” –Heidi Ewing (35:43)

Key Timestamps

• 05:24–08:17 – In-depth discussion: why peace talks with Russia are going nowhere
• 10:02–11:24 – Uncertainty over future U.S. role in NATO
• 12:17–13:15 – "War inertia": reasons for possible continued conflict
• 13:15–19:31 – EU’s ongoing energy dependence and efforts to shift away from Russian gas
• 21:06–24:51 – The likely inefficacy of Australia’s social media ban for minors
• 25:37–28:56 – Panel’s personal takes on baffling hotel design trends
• 31:34–36:17 – Heidi Ewing interview about the making and meaning of "Folk Tales"

Tone and Language

The hosts and panelists balance informed, analytical conversation with wry humor and personal anecdotes. Discussions are direct, sometimes sardonic (especially regarding geopolitical realities) but always grounded in journalistic and research-based expertise.

This summary provides a thorough guide to the episode’s main subjects, insights, and moments. It is ideal for listeners seeking a clear yet nuanced understanding of the topical debates and cultural insights featured on this lively edition of The Monocle Daily.