The Monocle Daily — March 30, 2026
Episode Theme
A sharp international panel dives into three major stories: Donald Trump’s latest U-turn on Cuba and Russian oil, Ukraine’s diplomatic forays in the Middle East, and whether Hungary’s Viktor Orbán era is finally ending. The episode closes with a witty segment on political satire in the age of meme politics. Join host Andrew Muller, Ukrainian policy expert Alena Hlivko, and international journalism professor James Rogers for insightful analysis and lively banter.
1. Russian Oil Returns to Cuba Amid Trump’s Policy Reversal
(03:36–11:00)
Key Developments:
- A Russian oil tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, docks in Cuba with 100,000 tons of crude—after months of a US blockade that caused massive shortages.
- This sudden shift follows a Trump administration policy (barely a week old) barring Russian oil deliveries.
- US policy toward Cuba once again appears erratic and possibly politically motivated.
Panel Analysis:
- James Rogers posits that Trump’s change is likely “a one-off”—an attempt to avoid a direct US-Russia tanker confrontation amid multiple global crises (04:35).
“There’s no sign this is a major reversal of policy, just something slightly unpredictable and probably a one-off.”
- Alena Hlivko highlights domestic US political pressures, especially the importance of the Cuban community in Florida during election season. She also notes that the Trump team, perhaps led by Marco Rubio, sees Cuba as “too close for comfort” for another regime change adventure (05:43–07:16):
“Perhaps he realizes…the advisors around him…that they don’t have enough resources to handle yet another confrontation with Cuba just on the border.”
- The US may have hoped a blockade would cause a popular uprising against Cuba’s government (07:16); however, as Rogers reminds listeners, past economic pressure hasn’t toppled the regime:
“That didn’t bring down the government…there’s no sign this is going to bring down the current regime in the way the United States might be hoping.”
- With few remaining allies and little leverage, Cuba is negotiating from a weak position but can still offer “a quiet life in the region for the US” (09:12).
- Muller’s Theory: Trump has made similar territorial musings about Canada and Greenland, suggesting an “America First, even greater” mentality (09:22):
“He wants a 51st state, doesn’t he? …You can kind of see Cuba being a logical plan C.”
- Hlivko’s Cautious Hope: The US Congress and democratic institutions might contain such erratic impulses (09:54).
- Rogers’ Parting Shot: These Trump ideas “come up and go away”—attention may soon shift elsewhere (10:40).
2. Zelenskyy Courts the Middle East: Ukraine as Defense Expert
(11:00–17:27)
Key Developments:
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy completes a diplomatic tour of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Jordan—all struck by Iran’s recent missile/drone activity.
- Ukraine’s expertise in missile/drone defense is in demand; deals or discussions are underway for defense cooperation and tech sharing.
Panel Analysis:
- Hlivko’s View: Ukraine is strategically moving from reliance on slow or fragmented international bodies (like the UN and NATO), to forging bilateral, multiyear defense partnerships (11:42).
“Ukraine has a unique chance to build partnerships with extremely wealthy countries…offering them expertise, not just the drones themselves…but also sharing knowledge of how to navigate the interceptors, the tactics and strategies.”
- Cooperation potentially means supplying valuable experience in drone warfare and electronic defense—assets Ukraine has honed in its war with Russia and can “predict several steps ahead” (14:01).
- Rogers: This relationship is mutually beneficial; Ukraine is not a supplicant, but a partner offering skills for revenue and strategic influence (12:42):
“He has gone on a trip in which Ukraine is no kind of supplicant, but rather…offering very useful expertise…bringing much-needed funds to his country’s war effort.”
- Opportunity for Ukraine to diversify support as US reliability fades, and Europe’s decision-making remains sluggish (16:29–16:56).
“If we can make the Middle East see us as actually useful allies…this might be a huge bonanza for us.”
- Panel notes the “axis of upheaval”—Russia, China, Iran, North Korea—but with recent events in Iran, Zelenskyy may see strategic gain in weakening Russia’s strongest allies (17:27):
“Weakening one of those actors and getting them out of the game…will be successful for Ukraine.”
3. Hungary Votes: Could the Orbán Era End?
(20:01–26:48)
Key Developments:
- Hungary approaches elections (April 12) with Orbán's ruling Fidesz party trailing, but polls tightening.
- The EU watches closely, hoping for a shift away from Orbán's obstructionist, pro-Russian rule.
Panel Analysis:
- Hlivko: Ukrainians suspect possible Russian interference and fear a rerun of Kremlin-style election meddling. She expresses hope for a democratic shift, not only for Ukraine’s EU ambitions but also for Hungary’s own revitalization (20:55):
“We’re familiar with the way Russia can meddle in elections…and I think there have been even reports in Ukrainian media that there was a staged assassination being planned…straight from Russia’s playbook.”
- Rogers: The EU is weary of Hungary’s role as an “internal headache” (22:12). Orbán’s resistance to united EU decision-making has revealed institutional weaknesses.
“The gracious acceptance concession speech is probably a bit of a stretch…Hungary’s conduct within the EU…the way it’s shown the flaws that exist in the mechanisms that make it work day to day.”
- A government change would unblock critical aid routes for Ukraine and reduce pro-Russian vetoes in the EU. Hlivko underscores the strategic importance:
“Unblocking that…border, making it more pro-Western and making more aid flow through Hungary to Ukraine…would be highly beneficial for the country’s survival.” (23:47–26:48)
- The broader trend? A battle between far right and center right, with Russia seeking to invest in European populist movements—a scenario to watch across the continent.
4. Satire in a World Stranger than Fiction: Puppet Regime and Beyond
(26:48–35:00)
Key Segment and Quotes:
- (27:13) Ian Bremmer (GZero Media): Political satire is now vital—“politics today have become fundamentally unserious,” memeified by leaders themselves (29:25):
“We may fail in being funny, but we’re not failing in getting the content right. And so in that regard, it’s definitely taking the topics with the respect they’re due.”
“Politics today have become fundamentally unserious. They’ve become memeified by the actual leaders themselves.” - Alex Clement, Puppet Regime showrunner, on ethical satire:
“The people making those people suffer are essential to the joke. …Striking that balance is really hard—just keeping up with the news and then walking the line of satirizing without mocking.” (28:06–29:25)
- Hlivko describes the resilience of Ukrainian humor—even under bombardment, comedians “doing their shows in the bunkers” keep spirits alive (30:40):
“The number of stand up comedians doing their shows in bunkers…just deploying that into everything from, again, ridiculing global leaders to kind of ease the pain of everyone—from Putin to Trump.”
- Her anecdote about Prince Harry’s visit and the darkly comic relief it brought goes viral on Ukrainian social media (32:14).
- James Rogers: Authoritarians loathe satire, knowing that humor can erode their authority (33:06):
“Authoritarians…always absolutely humorless. And laughter is the thing that terrifies them most, because once people start laughing at you, you are kind of stuffed.”
- Panelists recommend classic satire: “Yes, Prime Minister” (“the classic of all times”—Hlivko, 34:10) and “This Authoritarian Life” (Rogers).
Notable Quotes & Segments
- “Don’t blame us if [Trump’s] changed it back by the time you hear this.” (Muller, 00:06)
- “It’s not 1962. Cuba is no imaginable threat to the United States.” (Muller, 05:18)
- “Ukraine has a unique chance to build partnerships with extremely wealthy countries…offering them expertise, not just the drones themselves…” (Hlivko, 14:01)
- “It will be a very close call. We’re very familiar with the way Russia can meddle in elections.” (Hlivko, 20:55)
- “All those places you’ve mentioned, Andrew…they’ve kind of come up and gone away again.” (Rogers, 10:40)
- “Politics today have become fundamentally unserious. They’ve become memeified by the actual leaders themselves.” (Bremmer, 29:25)
Key Timestamps
- 03:36 Russian oil tanker arrives in Cuba; US policy reversal
- 04:35–10:40 Analysis of Trump’s Cuba decisions and domestic pressures
- 11:00 Zelenskyy’s Middle Eastern defense diplomacy
- 14:01 Ukraine’s unique expertise on drone warfare explained
- 20:01 Hungary’s pivotal election and its European significance
- 26:48 Political satire in 2026: the challenge and necessity
- 30:40 Ukrainian resilience and humor during war
- 34:10 Satire recommendations (“Yes, Prime Minister”)
Tone and Style
Reflective, witty, and occasionally sardonic, the panel balances serious geopolitical analysis with humor—mirroring the realities and absurdities of current global affairs.
For Listeners
Whether you’re following major world events or seeking insight on how satire adapts to an era of political spectacle, this episode blends global context, sharp analysis, and memorable asides—making it a rewarding listen even if you missed the original broadcast.