The Monocle Daily – Should the UK Join Europe’s Defence Fund?
Date: 3rd February 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Terry Stiasney (Political Journalist & Author), Justin Quirk (Writer & Editor)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily dives into pressing international and domestic issues, most notably whether the UK will re-engage with Europe's Defence Fund (SAFE) as geopolitical threats loom. The panel also explores India's growing strategic value to the West, Russia's potential reintegration into international sport, and the curious social experiment of government-backed matchmaking in Japan. The episode concludes with a candid interview from the World Government Summit in Dubai, exploring diplomacy and de-escalation in the Middle East.

Key Discussion Points

1. The UK and Europe's Joint Defence Fund: SAFE (03:00–08:28)

• Starmer’s Position on SAFE Membership:
  • UK PM Keir Starmer is signaling renewed interest in joining SAFE, the EU’s Security Action for Europe Defence Fund, after previously balking at entry conditions and cost.
  • Stiasney notes that discussions appear “serious” now, with pragmatic “haggling about the price” rather than ideological opposition. (03:37)
  • The UK's approach: keep defence negotiations distinct from broader issues like youth mobility and tuition fees to avoid political conflations.
• Framing for a Shifting World:
  • Starmer is appealing to both transatlantic and domestic audiences by referencing the need for Europe to do more, specifically acknowledging President Trump’s criticisms:

    “We've got to step up and do more. It’s not only President Trump who thinks Europe needs to do more, but other presidents as well. I think the same.” – Quoted by Andrew Muller (04:31)

  • Panel agrees that while some bone should be thrown to Trump, Europe does need greater security autonomy.
• Broader Context:
  • UK inching toward closer integration - major arms deals (e.g. selling Typhoon jets to Turkey, Norway anti-submarine contracts) exemplify piecemeal rapprochement with Europe.
  • Notably, there is less right-wing pushback against talk of European defence collaboration than a decade ago—indicative of a changed security landscape post-Brexit (07:41).

2. The Labour Party and Mandelson-Epstein Scandal (08:28–12:07)

• Fallout from the Epstein Files:
  • Peter Mandelson’s deep ties to Jeffrey Epstein resurface through new documents, pushing him out of the House of Lords.
  • Mounting concern over what UK security services and Downing Street knew about Mandelson’s actions, given his sensitive ambassadorial role.
  • Stiasney:

    “It is really unbelievable that [Mandelson] is someone who’s had political comebacks over the last 40 years… you’d think this would absolutely… be the end of him now.” (10:44)

• Political Dynamics:
  • Labour now under pressure to explain due diligence failures.
  • The discussion dissects why Mandelson kept resurfacing, with Quirk noting the calculation that he was a fit for difficult US relations, but:

    “If any of us… were in any job where something similar took place, our pass would be back with security within hours.” (11:08)

3. India's Strategic Moment (12:07–18:13)

• India-West Relations Heat Up:
  • Recent massive EU-India trade deal and a reported breakthrough between India and a Trump-led USA (e.g. tariff reductions from 50% to 18%, India agreeing to stop buying Russian oil).
  • Doubts about Trump’s claims; Modi’s response — gracious, but calculated, emphasizing India’s vast market:

    “Thank you, on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement...” – (Paraphrased from Quirk, 12:58)

  • India is strategic due to its size, English-speaking population, tech prowess and geostrategic importance.
• US-India Trouble Spots:
  • Damaging US visa restrictions for Indian students, with Quirk warning of soft power losses and missed opportunities in ‘critical fields like machine learning and engineering.’ (13:39)
• Outlook:
  • India is leveraging “middle ground” status to secure better deals with the US, EU, and UK.
  • EU hopes to access India’s market, but German expectations may be unrealistic as Indian consumer preference leans toward domestic or Asian brands.

4. Russia, Sports, and Global Re-entry (18:13–24:30)

• Should Russia Return to World Sport?
  • FIFA President Infantino suggests Russia’s exclusion from the 2022 and 2026 World Cups “has just created more frustration and hatred.”

    Terry Stiasney: “FIFA are not known for being, I don't know… the most absolutely scrupulous of organisations.” (19:22)

  • The panel is skeptical of welcoming Russia back before a settlement in Ukraine – the war remains a clear red line.
• The Role of Sport in Geopolitics:
  • Exclusion has real consequences, starving Russia of legitimacy, tourism, and PR (branding like Gazprom at Champions League).
• Double Standards?
  • Questions arise about allowing teams from other controversial countries (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia) to participate.
  • The “whataboutism” argument is weighed but invasion and war are seen as a higher infraction.
• Youth Olympics Exception:
  • IOC allowing young Russians/Belarusians back under their own flag is deemed unwise by the panel; Quirk predicts a boycott from some team at this summer’s World Cup. (24:04)

5. Japan's Government-Backed Matchmaking Experiment (24:43–29:45)

• Return to Real-World Dating:
  • Rising popularity of government-organized matchups and matchmaking bars as a response to app fatigue in Japan.
  • Apps remain popular (about a third of recent marriages), but there’s recognition that in-person social skills need honing.
  • Stiasney shares:

    “They have got an awful long way to go in terms of the social skills... There was a man who described [a date] as ‘attractive as seen from behind.’” (25:57)

• Dating Apps’ Flaws:
  • Quirk highlights skewed gender ratios (up to 70–80% male) and the inherent flaw:

    “You have businesses where, where failure is built into their business plan.” (26:19)

  • AI complicates trust – fake images, ChatGPT-generated messages.
• Advice for the Lovelorn:
  • Quirk: “Harden up, get down the pub, actually speak to some people in person… Get off your screen.” (29:17)
  • Stiasney: "Ask people questions about themselves. Don't just talk about yourself." (29:35)

6. Diplomacy and De-escalation in the Gulf: Interview with Anwar Gargash (30:33–36:47)

• Diplomat Training and Crisis Management:
  • Gargash details the UAE’s selective, wide-ranging, and mentorship-focused approach to building a diplomatic corps.
  • Importance on humility, rapid learning, and cross-domain expertise (climate, AI, engineering).
• Middle East Tensions:
  • UAE seeks to avoid further military confrontations, especially involving Iran and the US.
  • UAE uses diplomatic channels to urge direct US-Iran negotiations:

    “The last thing we want to see is a military confrontation… we have an opportunity today through negotiations, hopefully to arrive at a solution.” – Anwar Gargash (33:41)

• Role in Regional De-escalation:
  • Gargash insists UAE is one of several players quietly fostering dialogue to avoid more war post-Gaza.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On UK Defence Fund Haggling:
  Terry Stiasney:

  “They’re just haggling about the price at the moment… I think it’s quite significant [Starmer] wanted to raise [SAFE] again.” (03:37)

• On Starmer’s Need to Please Trump:
  Andrew Muller:

  “He’s still trying to pitch this in overtly Trump-pleasing terms…” (04:31)

• On UK's Strategic Drift:
  Justin Quirk:

  “That sort of piecemeal, not quite rejoining, but certainly becoming more reintegrated, feels like it’s all moving in the same direction.” (05:10)

• On Mandelson's Endurance:
  Justin Quirk:

  “If any of us... were in any job where something similar took place, we would... be back with security within hours. Like, it would not even be a subject for debate.” (11:08)

• On India’s Geopolitical Rising:
  Justin Quirk:

  “India is what Russia thinks it should be: this great world historic civilization that is currently being courted by all the major powers... treated with sort of great respect and deference.” (16:17)

• On Infantino’s Russia Rationale:
  Terry Stiasney:

  “To suggest you can hold this [sporting participation] out as some kind of prize for... playing nicely—why on earth should you be allowed back into international competition?” (19:22)

• On Dating Apps & AI:
  Justin Quirk:

  “You have businesses where, where failure is built into their business plan. If everyone logs on and finds the love of their life in two weeks, then the business drops pretty quickly." (26:19)

• On Real-World Interaction:
  Justin Quirk:

  “Get down the pub, actually speak to some people in person... Get off your screen.” (29:17) Terry Stiasney:
  “Ask people questions about themselves. Don’t just talk about yourself.” (29:35)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:00 – UK’s prospects in Europe’s Defence Fund
• 08:30 – Mandelson-Epstein scandal and Labour’s headaches
• 12:07 – India’s global trade and diplomatic maneuvering
• 18:13 – Debate over Russia’s reintegration into sport
• 24:43 – Japan’s local government-led dating revolution
• 30:33 – Anwar Gargash on diplomacy and Gulf de-escalation

Tone and Style

The panel maintains Monocle’s signature blend of lively, witty, and sharp analysis. Regional correspondents and guests contribute gravitas and behind-the-headlines perspective, while humour and asides (from hair metal to “Becky Content”) keep the discussion accessible and engaging.

This summary captures the major themes, vivid quotes, and fundamental issues explored in this episode, offering a comprehensive guide for listeners who want to stay informed without catching the entire broadcast.