The Monocle Daily: The Latest Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral and the UAE as Diplomatic Host Episode Date: February 4, 2026 | Host: Andrew Muller | Guests: Bertu Ersherlik (Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at RUSI), Quentin Peel (Journalist and Monocle Regular)

Episode Overview

This episode navigates the labyrinth of contemporary geopolitics, focusing on the renewed trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US in Abu Dhabi, prospects for US-Iran diplomacy in Muscat, Europe’s shifting role in Middle East negotiations, the reintroduction of Germany’s AfD to the Munich Security Conference, and the UAE’s growing role as a diplomatic host. It also detours into cultural territory with an interview about a new opera inspired by Hokusai’s "The Great Wave."

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi

• Participants & Symbolism
  Unconventionally, the US is represented by President Trump’s real estate confidant Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, while Russia displays “good faith” with fresh airstrikes against Ukraine's energy grid.

• Prospects for Progress ([05:14])

  • Quentin Peel: Doubts effectiveness due to US partisanship towards Russia. Sees the talks as “deeply lopsided” and notes the fundamental issue: “How can peace talks work if the so-called neutral promoter...is constantly favoring Mr. Putin and Russia, the aggressor, rather than the smaller country which is defending itself?” ([05:19])
  • Ceasefire violations underline the lack of genuine commitment.

• Sticking Points ([06:02])

  • Russia wants the full Donbas region, a goal unmet after 12 years.
  • Ukraine is willing to freeze conflict along current lines but refuses sweeping concessions.
  • Bertu Ersherlik: Suggests Russia is “playing for time,” banking on European “defense structures running out of patience” and the erosion of Western resolve. “I don’t see realistically that Ukraine is going to make that type of deep concession on Donbas. That would be…unacceptable.” ([07:19])

• Putin’s Incentives for Perpetuating War ([07:41])

  • Andrew Muller: Questions whether Putin is even interested in ending the war.
  • Quentin Peel: Suggests Putin fears the fallout of “a million casualties for not much more than we had…four years ago” and must “explain to the Russian public” the lack of gains. ([08:15])

• Europe’s Calculations ([09:14])

  • Muller: Posits Europe might quietly prefer a “status quo” where Russia’s military is depleted in Ukraine rather than threatening the Baltics.
  • Ersherlik: “It’s a question of whose interest does the status quo serve?” Notes the prevalence of “frozen conflict” as a likely scenario—“status quo management.” ([09:33])

2. US-Iran Diplomatic Tensions & Oman Talks

• Uncertain Talks in Muscat ([10:32])

  • Talks intended to avoid US military action are jeopardized by last-minute venue wrangling.
  • Iran pushes to keep focus strictly on the nuclear file, avoiding broader topics like its ballistic missile program.
  • Breaking Update: US may now withdraw from Muscat talks.

• Iran’s Strategy and US Leverage ([11:33])

  • Ersherlik: Sees both sides playing for time; characterizes US military build-up as “more than saber rattling.” Iran, meanwhile, is under domestic duress after months of protest suppression. “President Trump…for the US administration would be something akin to Obama’s red line in Syria…some type of military action against Iran is inevitable.” ([13:45])

• Could Iran Make Concessions? ([14:11])

  • Peel: Relates reports of Iranian regime anxiety but doubts there’s a clear US military strategy. “It is just so difficult to find a clear, coherent game plan coming out of the Trump White House. They’re all over the place.” ([15:15])
  • Ersherlik: Sees no realistic Iranian concessions that would stop US escalation: “It’s simply too late. The sanctions have been crippling.” ([15:49])

• Europe’s Marginalization ([17:15])

  • Peel: Notes Europe’s diminished role; “Europeans…are no longer really in that game.”
  • Raises the high-stakes risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, hiking global oil prices—potentially benefiting Russia and forcing US recalculation. ([18:30])

3. Germany’s AfD Returns to Munich Security Conference

• AfD’s Reintroduction ([19:38])

  • After a ban, the far-right party is allowed to send delegates, reflecting their status as Germany’s second-largest party.
  • Peel: Claims conference organizers assert this isn’t due to US pressure, but to “fairness.”

• Media & Platforming Dilemmas ([21:26])

  • Ersherlik: Frames the issue as a “fine line between engagement versus endorsement,” given AfD’s controversial positions, especially regarding Russia and Ukraine.
  • Muller: Warns that even allowing minimal participation legitimizes—and brings disproportionate coverage to—fringe parties. ([22:58])
  • Peel: Suggests “cancel culture” can backfire, emboldening populist narratives: “By refusing to let them into the tent, you’re actually giving them the status of being the real reformers.” ([23:30])

4. The UAE’s Emergence as a Diplomatic and Governance Hub

• World Government Summit in Dubai ([25:13])
  • Ersherlik: UAE and other Gulf states are “ambitiously trying to become the new center of gravity,” offering alternative global forums less “value-laden” than Western counterparts.
  • Focus is on “innovative governance, AI, and digital economy”—largely technocratic, “apolitical” themes.
  • However, Ersherlik notes the “gap” these events have regarding democracy and representation—unlike conferences shaped by the postwar order.
  • Peel: Highlights irony—UAE’s role as peace-broker is complicated when they’re “pouring weapons into this horrendous civil war” in Sudan. ([27:05])

5. Lighter Segment: Ban on Hidden Car Door Handles in China

• China Bans Hidden Door Handles ([28:54])
  • Praised (somewhat tongue-in-cheek) as a rare “win” for common sense by the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Ersherlik: “Well done, I suppose, to the Chinese Communist Party. I never thought I would say that, but it was very narrowly defined example.” ([29:11])
  • Panelist anecdotes: On unnecessary technology—app-controlled dishwashers, robot vacuum cleaners, automated hotel rooms and the pitfalls of QR code-only menus.
  • Peel: “By refusing to let them into the tent, you’re actually giving them the status of being the real reformers.” ([23:58])

6. Cultural Feature: Dai Fujikura’s Opera “The Great Wave”

• Interview Highlights ([32:45])
  • Composer Dai Fujikura discusses his opera based on Hokusai and his daughter Oi.
  • Hokusai’s life was “full of drama”—struck by lightning twice, lived to 90, changed his name 90 times. He declared everything created before age 70 as meaningless, aiming to be a “true artist” by living to 110.
  • The opera emphasizes human relationships, especially between Hokusai and Oi, against a backdrop mixing traditional Japanese instruments (shakuhachi) and contemporary orchestration.
  • Notable quote: “He just want to be the true artist of what he thinks a true artist is. So that really moved me.” – Dai Fujikura ([33:31])
  • “I wanted to transport us…into another realm immediately…So from bar two…shakuhachi enters. Shakuhachi…connects between the two worlds: reality and dream.” ([36:24])
  • Premiering in Glasgow and Edinburgh via Scottish Opera.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Quentin Peel:
  “How can peace talks work if the so-called neutral promoter…is constantly favoring Mr. Putin and Russia, the aggressor, rather than the smaller country which is defending itself?” ([05:19])

• Bertu Ersherlik:
  “Russia is playing for time. The element of time is always essential in negotiations, particularly in the context of a protracted and messy one such as this.” ([06:33])

• Andrew Muller, on Putin:
  “He is presented with no end of further difficulties...having to explain a million casualties for not much more than we had four years ago.” ([07:41])

• Dai Fujikura, on Hokusai’s ambition:
  “He just want to be the true artist of what he thinks a true artist is. So that really moved me.” ([33:31])

• Quentin Peel, on cancel culture and populism:
  “By refusing to let them into the tent, you’re actually giving them the status of being the real reformers.” ([23:58])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• US-Ukraine-Russia Talks in Abu Dhabi: [05:14]–[10:32]
• US-Iran and Oman Talks: [10:32]–[18:49]
• AfD and Munich Security Conference: [19:38]–[24:24]
• The UAE and Diplomatic Forums: [25:13]–[27:27]
• China’s Car Door Handle Ban & Technology Grievances: [28:54]–[31:50]
• Dai Fujikura on 'The Great Wave' Opera: [32:45]–[39:03]

Tone & Style Reflections

The panel blends dry wit and skepticism with deeply informed geopolitical analysis. The exchanges are brisk, often laced with sardonic humor, and at times, sharply critical of the underlying power dynamics and policy decisions at play in global affairs. The cultural segment softens the conclusion, bringing in an artist’s reflection on legacy and ambition as shaped through an East Asian lens.

Summary Prepared for Listeners Seeking In-Depth Coverage of Global Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Cultural Innovation as Framed by The Monocle Daily.