Podcast Summary: The Monocle Daily

Episode: The US claims progress on Ukraine talks, the G20 wraps up and Israel targets Hezbollah
Date: November 24, 2025
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Vincent McAvenny (political broadcaster and commentator), Bertu Ershelik (senior research fellow, Middle East Security at RUSI), Julia Yoffe (author and journalist)

Overview

In this episode, The Monocle Daily team unpacks several global headlines: the controversial US-led Ukraine "peace" plan, the significance of recent Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and dynamics at the concluded G20 summit in Johannesburg. Other topics include Saudi Arabia’s cautious liberalisation and a conversation with Julia Yoffe about her new book, which brings to light the stories of Russian women since the Revolution.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US "Progress" on Ukraine Talks (05:04–12:11)

• Context:
  Trump administration touts a new Ukraine peace plan, negotiated with Ukraine in Geneva. The plan, rumored to closely mirror Kremlin interests, raises serious doubts about its origins and fairness.
• Skepticism Over Trump’s Peace Plan:
  • Vincent McAvenny highlights mounting evidence that the 28-point proposal originated in Russian, then was translated to English. AI tools have pointed out Kremlin-like phrasing and structure (05:57).
  • Thanksgiving is mentioned as a calculated timing for Trump to make a splashy announcement, aiming to dominate national attention (06:28).
  • "Donald Trump very clearly just saw this plan coming from Russia and thought, oh, I can get a moment here. All of America is going to be gathered around on this Thursday evening and I can break into everyone's dinner with the big announcement that I’ve brought peace to Ukraine." – Vincent McAvenny [06:28]
• Ukrainian Predicament:
  • Bertu Ershelik points out Ukraine remains cornered—having already compromised, yet pressured to accept a future far from their own goals (07:30).
  • Both Russia and Ukraine are dissatisfied for different reasons: Russia objects to proposed security guarantees for Ukraine, yet overall, the plan is more favorable to Russia (07:30–08:59).
• Global (Especially US) Support Waning:
  • American public and political patience for continued support is fading, putting additional pressure on Kyiv (09:30).
  • “Ukraine is the party that has been invaded unfairly… has the moral high ground… but there is a waning appetite, certainly in the United States, to continue to support at the public level.” – Bertu Ershelik [09:30]
• Non-negotiable for Ukraine:
  • Zelensky remains adamant there can be no territorial concessions, not just for political reasons but due to the very real humanitarian dangers for Ukrainians in contested regions (11:01).
  • “Trying to say to Ukrainian people, land that we are still in control of… we're just going to hand it over to the Russians… It involves abuse of the population, abduction of the children, sexual violence, all of these kinds of things.” – Vincent McAvenny [11:01]

2. Israeli Strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon (12:11–18:59)

• Details of Israeli Operation:
  • Israeli airstrike in Beirut kills Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haisam Ali Al Tabtabi, marking the most significant escalation since the ceasefire post-October 7, 2023 (12:11).
• Legitimacy & Regional Implications:
  • Bertu Ershelik sees the target as a legitimate one from an operational perspective, given Tabtabi’s involvement in both Lebanon and Yemen, and possibly in the planning of attacks against Israel (13:10).
  • Vincent McAvenny raises the dilemma for Lebanon’s new government, which risks losing the public’s trust if Israeli actions undermine their authority or ability to deliver security (14:53).
  • "Why would [Lebanese] withdraw any support that's still remaining for Hezbollah when Israel won't abide by the agreements that it has?" – Vincent McAvenny [14:53]
• Middle East Trends:
  • Underlying notion that the regional era of powerful, armed non-state actors (Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran-linked militias) may be waning, with a potential for governments to reclaim monopoly on force—though success is uncertain (16:07–17:40).
  • The possibility of a broader confrontation between Israel and Iran looms; such an escalation could disrupt already fragile governmental transitions in the region, including in Iraq (17:40–18:59).
• Broader Worry:
  • "People across the region are… existing in the shadow of what might be looming… Coming up soon is the second round of violence between Israel and Iran." – Bertu Ershelik [17:40]

3. G20 Summit in Johannesburg (18:59–24:53)

• Trump’s Absence & Political Motivation:
  • Trump declined to attend, officially citing concern for South Africa’s white population—a justification dismissed by the panel as a pretext (19:47).
  • Vincent McAvenny observes that Trump dislikes multilateral settings where he isn’t the center of attention and hints at a strategy to centralize next year’s US-hosted G20 around his preferences (19:47–20:20).
  • “He is insanely lucky in this second term. He gets a home G20, a home World Cup, a quincentennial and a home Olympics, all events that he can dominate and bend to his own will.” – Vincent McAvenny [20:20]
• Reactions to Absence:
  • German Chancellor Mertz was critical ("not a good decision"), while Brazil’s President Lula downplayed it (21:09).
  • Absence is seen as a signal of America's preference for unilateralism under Trump, with other G20 members posturing in favor of multilateralism (21:34).
  • “There is value in cross-border cooperation and multilateralism and the future of the international order cannot be dictated by Washington D.C. alone.” – Bertu Ershelik [21:34]
• Substance of the Summit:
  • Deliberations on Sudan, DRC, Ukraine, and Palestine are acknowledged but viewed skeptically regarding their actual impact compared to other international forums (22:57–23:25).
  • The G20 is still considered a significant meeting, not least due to history and its crisis-management roots (23:25).

4. Saudi Arabia’s Quiet Liberalisation (24:53–29:47)

• Relaxation of Alcohol Laws:
  • Non-Muslim foreigners with specific residency now able to buy alcohol in Riyadh’s diplomatic quarter—part of slow, highly qualified reforms under MBS (25:45).
  • Bertu Ershelik places this move in the context of Saudi’s ambition to appear “more liberalized, more open, more progressive,” especially targeting potential tourists, investors, and businesspeople (25:45–26:32).
  • Personal recollections surface about Riyadh’s expat social life, with home-brewing of alcohol once necessary (26:32–27:12).
• Branding, Megaprojects & Vision 2030:
  • Vincent McAvenny notes that until Saudi reforms broader human rights (notably for LGBTQ people), alcohol alone won’t shift Western attitudes (27:27).
  • Discussion of the ambitious NEOM project, skepticism about feasibility, and Saudi’s competition with Dubai for tourists and expats (27:48–28:52).
  • The announced goal of attracting 150 million tourists a year by 2030 is called unrealistic and potentially transformative for Saudi culture in unpredictable ways (28:52–29:47).
  • “You can’t invite 150 million people a year to come and visit your country… That’s going to have an impact.” – Andrew Muller [29:47]

5. Julia Yoffe on Her History of Russian Women (31:08–38:06)

• Revolutionary Reforms:
  • Yoffe recounts how Soviet women—thanks largely to Alexanda Kollontai and Nadezhda Krubskaya—won rights that in some cases are still fought for in the West, such as paid maternity leave, access to higher education, civil divorce, and abortion (31:08–32:24).
  • “A lot of these things… we’re still fighting for in the west over 100 years later. But in 1918 and 1920, Soviet women were just granted this by the stroke of a pen.” – Julia Yoffe [32:24]
• Her Own Family’s Story:
  • Yoffe’s great-grandmothers, Turkish doctors and engineers, would not have had such opportunities in the West (32:47).
  • “My great grandmothers might seem extraordinary. They’re only extraordinary if you pluck them out of the Soviet context… But in their own context, in the Soviet context, there were tens and tens of millions of women just like them.” – Julia Yoffe [33:54]
• Stalin’s Reversal & Enduring Impact:
  • The “golden age” did not last. Stalin’s regime, reflecting broader Bolshevik male attitudes, prioritized other objectives over sustained women’s emancipation (34:17–36:36).
  • Stalin pressed women into both productive and reproductive labor without needed support, deprioritizing earlier progressive reforms (35:00).
• Personal Perspective:
  • Yoffe approaches history by always imagining herself in her subjects’ situation, which helped her research (37:07).
  • “It’s what makes the study of history so intoxicating to me… What would it have felt like for my great grandmothers… during the cataclysm of World War II…?” – Julia Yoffe [37:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Ukraine Plan:
  “I do think it really is a sort of Putin wish list—the mad demand as well, part of it to get back into the G7 and turn it into the G8 again.” – Vincent McAvenny [11:01]

• On Multilateralism:
  “There is value in cross border cooperation and multilateralism and the future of the international order cannot be dictated by Washington D.C. alone.” – Bertu Ershelik [21:34]

• On Saudi Tourism Ambitions:
  “You can’t invite 150 million people a year to come and visit your country… That’s going to have an impact.” – Andrew Muller [29:47]

• On Soviet Women’s Rights:
  “[Soviet women] granted paid maternity leave… higher education… no fault civil divorce… In 1920, Soviet women got the right to abortion provided for free in state hospitals… A lot of these things, like I said, we’re still fighting for in the West over 100 years later.” – Julia Yoffe [32:24]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Ukraine peace plan analysis: 05:04–12:11
• Israeli strike on Hezbollah leader: 12:11–18:59
• G20 summit fallout and US absence: 18:59–24:53
• Saudi Arabia allows some alcohol sales: 24:53–29:47
• Interview with Julia Yoffe on Russian women’s history: 31:08–38:06

Final Thoughts

This episode offers a sharp and balanced round-up of the day’s biggest international stories, with a skeptical eye on both the politics of power and the nature of diplomacy. The broad, nuanced conversation with Julia Yoffe stands out as an exploration of often-overlooked perspectives in history. Throughout, the panel combines global context with personal anecdotes, ensuring the discussion remains accessible, engaging, and rooted in real-world stakes.