THE MONOCLE DAILY
Episode: The US Supreme Court rules against Trump’s sweeping tariffs
Date: February 20, 2026
Host: Emma Nelson

Episode Overview

This episode of The Monocle Daily, hosted by Emma Nelson, unpacks the US Supreme Court’s landmark ruling against Donald Trump’s use of emergency executive power to impose broad tariffs, examining the implications for global trade, American politics, and international relations. Featuring expert commentary from Washington correspondent H.J. Mai, former US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and international security experts Evelyn Farkas and Dr. Marion Messmer, the episode also touches on the evolving state of European defense and offers lively reflections from Monocle’s coverage of the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Supreme Court Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs

(00:06–08:33)

• Majority Ruling:
  The US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump could not use the 1970s emergency law to impose sweeping global tariffs, introducing significant uncertainty for trade with the US.

• Immediate Reaction from the Business Community:

  • H.J. Mai notes mixed feelings of hope and confusion among US trading partners and businesses. ([01:46])

    “There’s some hope within the business community, but also a confusion and uncertainty, which is obviously what the tariffs themselves have done to the business community. So, you know, it’s a mixed bag on this day.” — H.J. Mai ([01:46])

  • Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross highlights the potential for “enormous confusion and litigation in the trade communities,” and fears of foreign companies flooding the US market, taking advantage of a potential tariff gap. ([03:08])

    “If there aren’t these tariffs, you can be sure the foreign countries are going to dump as much stuff in here as they can as quickly as they can…” — Wilbur Ross ([03:08])

• Trump’s Response & Prospects for Further Action:

  • Trump has already promised a "backup plan," suggesting he won’t abandon tariffs easily.
  • Wilbur Ross explains that other presidential tools for tariffs take time and won’t be perfect substitutes, predicting a months-long gap. ([04:30])

    “While they are at least partial substitutes, I don't believe they are complete substitutes. And in any event, there would be a gap of perhaps a few months during which there wouldn't be tariffs...” — Wilbur Ross ([04:30])

• Rule of Law and Executive Power:

  • H.J. Mai frames this as a rare judicial check on Trump’s executive power, with Congress largely deferring to the White House.

    “This shows that at least the judiciary is putting some checks on the president’s power that have certainly increased over the past year since he retook office…” — H.J. Mai ([05:15])

• Impact on Americans and Global Trade:

  • Democrats hail the ruling as “a win for the wallets of every American consumer.”
  • Discussion on how Trump's trade policies both restricted imports and generated revenue but also raised consumer costs and global tensions.

    “Affordability has become the it word here in the US… how does this continued policy… affect Americans and American businesses and obviously the global standing.” — H.J. Mai ([07:08])

  • Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing may be complicated by the loss of tariff leverage.

2. US-European Relations and Future of Defense Cooperation

(08:33–21:07)

• Transatlantic Trust Erosion:

  • Evelyn Farkas (Director, McCain Institute; former Deputy Asst. Secretary of Defense) speaks with Andrew Muller about rising European and Asian distrust of US reliability amid anti-EU/ally rhetoric.

    “There’s something different this time around where there’s a real erosion, a real step down in trust. I think our European allies… are very nervous.” — Evelyn Farkas ([10:39])

• Congress and Military as Checks:

  • Farkas suggests that while the President acts by whim, the US Congress and military remain guardrails, unwilling to follow “illegal” orders.

    “They would have said, it's not lawful for us to… I would like to think that that's what they would have done…” — Evelyn Farkas ([12:02])

• Strategic Drift & Lack of Vision:

  • Criticism of the Trump administration’s security strategy as lacking coherence or prioritizing true US security interests.

    "They haven't given us a strategy… It’s not a document that's terribly strategic… There was no final author who smoothed it out and made it seem like it was something coherent." — Evelyn Farkas ([12:51])

• Endurance of the Transatlantic Bond:

  • Despite political turbulence, Farkas remains optimistic:

    “We have core interests and values that bind us together. And the majority of Americans believe that as well… Americans do not view Europeans… as their enemies.” — Evelyn Farkas ([14:44])

• European Defense Cooperation Accelerates:

  • Dr. Marion Messmer (Chatham House) unpacks the E5’s joint declaration to develop an advanced European defense industrial sector, prompted by US disengagement and Russian threats.

    “European states are increasingly clear that they would prefer to invest in European solutions and become much more independent from the US.” — Marion Messmer ([16:14])

• Benefits & Challenges of Joint Initiatives:

  • Focus on developing European alternatives for air defense and drone technology, especially in light of lessons from Ukraine and rapid changes in military tech.

    “Future war is likely going to be a combination of lots of different, different systems…” — Marion Messmer ([18:31])

    • Drones offer cost effectiveness, but rapid obsolescence and single-use dynamics make procurement complex.

3. Reflections on the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics

(21:07–27:53)

• Event Legacy & Local Impact:

  • Andrew Muller and Tom Webb share impressions of the Games’ effect on Milan: economic optimism, urban rejuvenation, and a smooth, friendly event experience.

    “I can only describe the legacy here as the city is now just buoyant, it's full of confidence… I think this is going to be a real catalyst that drives Milan forward as a sort of European city…” — Tom Webb ([22:29])

• Atmosphere & Highlights:

  • Despite local pessimism beforehand, the Games succeeded in creating joy and camaraderie (“everybody has a good time").
  • Notable moments: hockey in the new (and old) stadiums, the city's green and pragmatic approach to event spaces, experiences at the opera and football, and cultural crossovers—such as Olympic medallist Elisa Lu skating to "MacArthur Park," tying back to Monocle Radio's own connections.

    "Really, there's nowhere in Italy that's ever going to disappoint where food is concerned. But Milan really has not..." — Andrew Muller ([25:53])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There’s some hope within the business community, but also a confusion and uncertainty, which is obviously what the tariffs themselves have done to the business community."
  — H.J. Mai ([01:46])

• “If there aren’t these tariffs, you can be sure the foreign countries are going to dump as much stuff in here as they can as quickly as they can…”
  — Wilbur Ross ([03:08])

• “This shows that at least the judiciary is putting some checks on the president’s power that have certainly increased over the past year since he retook office…”
  — H.J. Mai ([05:15])

• “There's something different this time around where there's a real erosion, a real step down in trust.”
  — Evelyn Farkas ([10:39])

• “European states are increasingly clear that they would prefer to invest in European solutions and become much more independent from the US.”
  — Dr. Marion Messmer ([16:14])

• “I thought I was just interviewing the artistic director. Instead he ushered me to my seat where Wagner’s five and a half hour epic the Closing of the Ring began. It was a very, very special and beautiful experience. But I do still have a bed sore from it.”
  — Tom Webb ([26:19])

Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 00:06–08:33 | Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, expert and business reactions, Trump’s possible responses | | 08:33–14:18 | Evelyn Farkas on US-Europe trust, the military and Congress as checks on executive overreach | | 15:53–21:07 | Dr. Marion Messmer on the E5 European defense pact and implications of US retrenchment | | 21:59–27:53 | Reflections on the 2026 Milan Olympics—city impact, events, and cultural experiences |

Tone & Style:
The episode is brisk, analytical, and cosmopolitan, balancing sharp political and economic analysis with personality-driven reportage and transatlantic wit.

This summary captures the principal content and memorable moments of The Monocle Daily’s February 20, 2026, episode—making it accessible and informative for those who missed the original broadcast.