The Monocle Daily: Ukraine Targets Russia’s Mediterranean Shadow Fleet as Putin Delivers End-of-Year Address
Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Mark Galeotti, Marisa Masria Katz, Fernando Augusto Pacheco
Overview
This episode delves into the geopolitical developments surrounding Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, with a special focus on Ukraine’s drone strike on a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean on the same day as President Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference. The panel also unpacks how online sleuths helped crack a recent mass shooting case in the US, explores cultural moments such as the UK Christmas number one song race and Oscars moving to YouTube, and reflects humorously on the major lessons of 2025.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Putin’s Annual Press Conference & the War in Ukraine
Guest: Mark Galeotti, Russia analyst and author
[00:54–10:18]
- Press Conference Highlights:
- The event was described as “probably the least interesting of all the various direct lines” (Galeotti, 01:54).
- Putin reiterated Russia's demands and blamed Kyiv for the war.
- “He did suggest that there was some evidence that movement might be happening. But... his view is the movement has to come from Kyiv.” (Galeotti, 02:14)
- Putin’s Attitude Toward Peace:
- Believes he is winning and just needs to “fight longer than Ukraine can.”
- Open to a deal only if the terms are to his liking, otherwise content to wait for better leverage.
- "He’s willing to keep the war going. But ... he’s also perfectly willing to walk away because he thinks ... he’ll be able to impose even harsher terms on Kyiv." (Galeotti, 03:32)
- War Casualties & Domestic Response:
- “1.1, 1.2, 1.3 million dead and wounded” (Galeotti, 03:20) – numbers seen as not widely acknowledged in Russia.
- The war is largely fought by recruits from impoverished regions, enticing them with high pay: "They are playing a particularly bloody lottery..." (Galeotti, 04:38)
- Resulting political pressure is “relatively limited.”
2. Ukraine’s Drone Strike on Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker
[05:35–07:19]
- Targeted an Oman-flagged ship in the Mediterranean—a significant escalation in location.
- Timing likely meant to spoil Putin’s press event: “Yes, it’s quite likely they did.” (Galeotti, 05:56)
- Breach of international law, but Ukraine took care not to cause environmental catastrophe.
- “Putin actually was asked about this... he simply said, look, this is just an attempt to drive up insurance costs.” (Galeotti, 06:43)
- Russian retaliation with massive air strikes on Odessa.
- The significance hinges on whether this becomes the start of a sustained Ukrainian campaign.
3. EU Loan to Ukraine & Russia’s Response
[07:19–09:34]
- EU announced a €90bn loan to Ukraine, but not from frozen Russian assets as some had wished.
- Putin sees this as a win: “As far as Putin is concerned... the fact that... they’re going to have to stump up the money themselves rather than use Russian money… is a good thing.” (Galeotti, 07:54)
- Failed unity in Europe highlighted by internal divisions (Belgium, Italy, Spain, France).
- Discord plays into Putin’s narrative of a divided West.
4. European Divisions: Polish-Hungarian Tensions
[09:34–10:18]
- Polish FM Sikorski’s barbed social media post towards Viktor Orban used as Russian propaganda fodder.
- Such divisions, though routine, are useful for Russian narratives.
5. US Mass Shooting Case & Unlikely Online Sleuthing Success
Guest: Marisa Masria Katz (Providence, RI)
[11:25–16:15]
- The December 13 Brown University shooting case was difficult for police due to lack of suspect images.
- “There was this fear... and at the same time we were all trying to... figure out ways that we could help... it was really all hands on deck.” (Katz, 12:34)
- Social media (especially Reddit) played a critical role after someone posted about seeing the suspect near a gray Nissan—cracking open the case.
- Quote: “He posted something on Reddit... I’m being dead serious, the police need to look into a gray Nissan with Florida plates, possibly a rental.” (Katz, 14:00)
- Eventually led to suspect’s (Claudio Neves Valente) discovery.
- Police credited online sleuths: “There’s no denying how critical it was.” (Katz, 15:20)
- Community felt uplifted by their collective digital effort.
6. Cultural Wrap: Brazil’s Beach Huts, the Oscars Move to YouTube, and UK Christmas Number One
Guest: Fernando Augusto Pacheco
[16:15–28:10]
a. Brazil’s Beach Huts
- Rio's beachfront will feature new, uniform beach huts shaped like kites – designed for easy installation/removal and “breezy” aesthetics.
- “He wants to try to organize the mass with beauty and poetry. But... Rio... is interesting precisely because it is a little bit messy.” (Pacheco, 19:01)
b. The Oscars to YouTube
- After 50 years on ABC, the Oscars will be globally livestreamed on YouTube, in a landmark shift.
- “YouTube is free... there will be no awkward relationships with studios... But there’s one little problem here: the lack of glamour. Actually, YouTube is not glamorous.” (Pacheco, 20:59)
- Predicts Oscar broadcasts might get longer with fewer TV constraints.
c. The UK Christmas Number One Race
- Two contenders: A solemn Together for Palestine charity single (“Lullaby”) and Kylie Minogue’s upbeat, intentionally dancey “Xmas”.
- Discussion on the enduring legacy of classic Christmas songs.
- Amusing exchange about Minogue’s possible effort to create the next “YMCA”-style dance craze.
- “She’s trying to conjure a sort of YMCA variety dance craze, isn’t she?... Can you imagine how much more annoying it is going to make every Christmas party, every tube ride home late at night during the festive season?” (Muller, 27:39)
7. Year-End Satirical Reflection: Lessons from 2025
[28:33–35:30]
- Irreverent review of the year’s quirks, including:
- The futility of trade wars against empty islands, e.g. US tariffs on penguin-inhabited Heard Island.
- President Trump’s improbable foreign policy moves (Cambodia-Armenia, interest in Greenland and Canada).
- Introduction of Albania’s AI Minister, Diella: “...offer advice to their flesh and blood colleagues, though it is not clear when we can expect this advice to tilt towards council that we wretched organic life forms submit to being pulped for biomass...” (Muller, 34:15)
- “Basically that we would have to learn to live with the mightiest superpower ever gathered beneath one flag, apparently doing foreign policy by flinging darts at a whirling globe.” (Muller, 33:03)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Putin’s War Mindset:
“He is winning the war on the ground. And yes, it’s incredibly bloody and expensive... he just has to be able to fight longer than Ukraine can. And he thinks that that point is coming.”
– Mark Galeotti, 02:59 -
On the Realities of Russian War Recruitment:
“They are playing a particularly bloody lottery, that, well, if they die, then their families get a lot of money, and if they survive, then they get a lot of money.”
– Mark Galeotti, 04:29 -
On the Ukrainian Strike on the Tanker:
“Let’s be brutally clear, this is actually a breach of international law to strike a cargo ship away from the theatre of operations. But... if it had also created some terrible polluting event, then that would have been even more problematic.”
– Mark Galeotti, 06:12 -
On Online Sleuthing After Providence Shooting:
“I go on the Providence Reddit a lot. I’m not really a big social media user, but it feels like a community board... everyone is kind of giving each other a virtual high five.”
– Marisa Masria Katz, 15:20 -
Oscars on YouTube:
“There’s one little problem here, and the lack of glamour. Actually, YouTube is not glamorous. It is everything, but it’s not glamorous.”
– Fernando Augusto Pacheco, 20:59 -
On Attempts to Regularize Rio’s Beaches:
“He wants to try to organize the mass with beauty and poetry. But at the same time, Rio is interesting precisely because it is a little bit messy.”
– Fernando Augusto Pacheco, 19:01 -
On New Christmas Songs:
“She’s trying to conjure a sort of YMCA variety dance craze, isn’t she? And if this song gains traction, Fernando... can you imagine how much more annoying it is going to make every Christmas party?”
– Andrew Muller, 27:39
Important Timestamps
- 01:54: Mark Galeotti on Putin’s press conference & outlook on Ukraine war
- 05:35: Analysis of Ukrainian drone strike on Russian shadow fleet tanker
- 07:19: Discussion of EU €90bn Ukraine loan and Europe’s internal divisions
- 09:34: On Polish-Hungarian friction in EU politics
- 11:25: Providence mass shooting & the pivotal role of Reddit sleuths
- 16:15: Brazilian beach hut uniformity, new designs, and cultural implications
- 20:14: Oscars moving from ABC TV to YouTube
- 23:19: The UK Christmas number one: contenders and commentary
- 28:33: Andrew Muller's satirical “what we learned in 2025” wrap-up
Tone and Style
The conversation blends sharp political analysis with characteristic Monocle wit and irreverence—including self-deprecation, cultural asides, and playful rapport between host and guests. The year-end summary also takes a tongue-in-cheek look at global affairs and the oddities of 2025.
Conclusion
This Monocle Daily episode provides in-depth analysis of Putin’s approach to the Ukraine war and the international significance of recent military and financial developments, while also exploring the constructive power of online communities, shifts in global cultural rituals (from the beach to the Oscars), and delivering a humorous, incisive summary of the year—making for an engaging and well-rounded listen.