The Monocle Daily

Episode: What would talks between the US and Iran look like?
Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Negar Anger (former US State Department and NSC advisor), Simon Brook (journalist and communications consultant)
Featured Interview: Luke Kemp (author, University of Cambridge)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the potential and contours of imminent talks between the US and Iran amid heightened military tension. The panel examines American motives, the possibility of diplomatic off-ramps, the extent of European influence, and the evolving landscape of international summits. Later segments feature an analysis of AI-run social media and an interview with Luke Kemp on societal collapse.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US-Iran Tensions: Motives and Scenarios

[03:33 - 11:01]

• Overview of the Situation:

  • Increase in US military assets in the Gulf region as a possible show of force against Iran.
  • Widespread anti-regime protests in Iran, recently suppressed through crackdowns.
  • Rumors of direct diplomatic contact between US (envoy Steve Whitkoff) and Iran (FM Abbas Arakchi).

• American Intentions:

  • Negar Anger [04:30]:

    “What we're seeing right now is not a clean trajectory towards war or diplomacy. It's the collision of three forces … internal unrest, external pressure and personality driven politics.”

  • US policymakers are keeping "all options on the table" and seeking leverage before engaging in diplomacy.

• Is the US Bluffing or Threatening?

  • Simon Brook [06:41]:

    "John Bolton... was saying the other day that Trump only looks at the short term. He doesn't think beyond that... is it to disarm nuclear capabilities, to signal to protesters, or just keep pressure so Iran can't plan ahead?"

  • The unpredictability of President Trump is a complicating factor.

• Dangers of Building Tension:

  • Negar Anger [08:48]:

    "The closest we've seen is a president announcing a red line and then not… this was Obama over Syria… President Trump… could be considered his Obama red line moment."

  • Risks if military buildup creates an obligation to act to avoid looking weak.

• Europe’s Position:

  • Simon Brook [09:55]:

    "Could this be a situation where we see the US and Europe standing together…? But politicians are watching domestic implications. For Starmer in the UK, seeing his party's left, this could be damaging.”

2. The Value and Evolution of Global Summits

[11:01 - 20:29]

• World Government Summit in Dubai:

  • Summits as spaces for informal, rapid diplomacy—contrasted to formal, slow-moving multilateral structures.
  • Negar Anger [13:53]:

    "These forums… allow political and economic elites to meet quickly… think outside the box, to talk about norms and technology… deal-making that happens on the margins."

  • Not a replacement for the UN, but a complement.

• Inclusion of Civil Society and Experts:

  • Notable this year: The new "World Laureate Summit" with Nobel winners and leading thinkers.
  • Simon Brook [16:21]:

    "What's not to like, getting experts who don’t have an eye to the electorate? But, there’s the risk of disconnect from public concerns."

• Are Summits Enjoyable for Officials?

  • Negar Anger [18:32]:

    "If you like the speed dating that UNGA delivers, you'll love these… face-to-face diplomacy is a lot better than zoom calls."

• Common Shortcomings:

  • Simon Brook [19:44]:

    "There's always a jazz trio. Nobody wants to listen… and at some point, it’s just seen as a talking shop, disconnected from reality."

3. Domestic Politics and Monumental Ego in the US

[20:29 - 24:25]

• President Trump’s plan to close and rebrand the Kennedy Center and build a massive "triumphal arch".
• Concerns over politicization of civic spaces.
  • Negar Anger [21:31]:

    "Art institutions… are meant to outlast one administration and serve as shared ground… politicized, it becomes challenging."

  • Simon Brook [23:02]:

    "There’s a history of politicians building grand structures... For Trump it’s particularly relevant, he’s a TV star, everything is visual."

4. The Rise of AI-Driven Social Networks

[24:25 - 30:23]

• Introduction of Maltbook, a social network composed solely of bots interacting.
• Simon Brook [25:12]:

  "I'm just happy for them to talk to each other and not to talk to me."

• AI as an aide—and a risk—within government and diplomacy.
  • Negar Anger [26:14]:

    "The problem is not the bots talking… it's that governments are still on mute about this… guardrails are lacking."

  • AI's lack of empathy, potential for "hallucination", and the risk of leaking sensitive information are ongoing concerns.
  • Simon Brook [27:42]:

    "As a writer... I can't rely on AI because I need to make sure that what I write is factually correct. AI just invents things."

• Governments are developing in-house AI to keep data secure.

5. Societal Collapse—Lessons from History

[31:03 - 38:48]

Interview with Luke Kemp, author of “Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse”

• Why Write About Collapse Now?

  "We live in a world with over 12,000 nuclear weapons... accelerating climate change... autocracies rising. There's a very good reason to be thinking about this topic right now." [31:03]

• Patterns in Collapse:

  • Size of a civilization doesn’t guarantee survival; rising inequality is the main driver.
  • Modern states less unequal than historical empires, but inequality is rising again.

• Recurrent Triggers:

  "Rising wealth inequality now has a wealth of evidence… more corruption, civil wars, physical violence, worse decisions. All of those make the state more fragile." [34:23]

• Exceptions and Solutions:

  • Ancient Athens as a partial exception: democratic participation, mechanisms to tax/engage the wealthy for public good.

  “Athens… had mechanisms to curb wealth inequality; it never fully collapsed internally, but was conquered.” [35:36]

• Advice for Today:

  • Promote democracy and inclusion.

  "If we had more democracy, this would actually curb some of the greatest threats we face today." [37:28]

  • Notable thought experiment (Trinity Jury): What if ordinary citizens, not elites, decided on epochal decisions like detonating the atomic bomb or climate policy?

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On US foreign policy toward Iran:

  "The president, his national security team are keeping all options on the table… let's gauge. Let's see if the US Government will be able to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities."
  — Negar Anger [04:30]

• On the purpose of global summits:

  "So much of what happens at any… summit are the deal making, the meetings that happen on the fringes."
  — Negar Anger [13:53]

• On disconnect between summits and real life:

  "If they're disconnected for the guys drinking beer in the bar… then I think that is a risk."
  — Simon Brook [17:51]

• On AI social networks:

  "The problem is that the AI is talking to itself… but who's moderating the chat?"
  — Negar Anger [26:14]

• On societal collapse:

  "Rather than size, I think inequality is the key driver."
  — Luke Kemp [31:39]

  "If we had more democracy, this would actually curb some of the greatest threats we face today."
  — Luke Kemp [37:28]

Important Timestamps

• 03:33 – Introduction to US-Iran tensions and military build-up
• 04:30 – Negar Anger on the complexity of US intentions
• 06:41 – Simon Brook on Trump’s unpredictability and goals
• 13:53 – Debating the real value of global summits
• 21:27 – US "triumphal arch" and the politicization of public spaces
• 24:25 – AI social platforms and the risks of bot communication
• 31:03 – Interview with Luke Kemp on the history and future of societal collapse

Memorable Moments

• The recurring joke about jazz trios at summits—no one wants to hear them, but they're always there.
  — [19:44]
• Sharp and wry observations on Trump’s monument plans and their historical echoes.
  — [23:02]
• The show’s tongue-in-cheek but urgent look at AI agents founding religions and plotting in secret chat rooms.
  — [25:36]

Conclusion

This episode offers a nuanced, global, and sometimes wryly humorous look at high-stakes diplomacy, the effectiveness (and limitations) of global summits, the risks posed and opportunities offered by new AI technologies, and deep historical lessons for how societies avert or succumb to collapse. Recommended for anyone seeking thoughtful, informed, and personality-rich analysis of today’s geopolitical currents.