The Monocle Daily – Will Trump’s Threats of Further Sanctions Work on Putin?

Date: September 8, 2025
Host: Andrew Muller
Guests: Stephen DL (Russia analyst), Zoe Grunewald (Westminster editor at The Lead)
Special Feature: Letter from Gaza by Ahmed Sharmali, read by Hassan Anderson

Episode Overview

This episode explores escalating tensions between the US, Russia, and Europe over Ukraine, scrutinizing President Donald Trump’s latest threats of sanctions against Vladimir Putin in the midst of intensified Russian attacks. The discussion widens to European energy dependence on Russia, internal UK political turmoil under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the rise of the UK’s Reform Party, a generational lens on waning faith in capitalism, and the cultural peculiarities of London dog-owners.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Letter from Gaza: Human Resilience Amid Conflict

[01:06–05:31]

• Ahmed Sharmali writes from Gaza about survival under siege, deprivation, and the search for moments of joy.
• Notable Excerpts:
  • "Our daughter, Mariam was born in Gaza... She has taken her first steps. She’s walking and sometimes running fast now." – [01:39] (Ahmed Sharmali via Hassan Anderson)
  • Describes scarce resources: “The lack of basic hygiene products, soap, diapers and vaccines has made the job of early parenthood the hardest thing me and my wife Reema have had to do.” – [02:05] (Sharmali)
  • On risk and relief: “Today, I made the decision to take a risk and go [to the sea]... It was brief but extremely beautiful. I felt a great relief after this quick outing.” – [03:48] (Sharmali)
  • Global solidarity: “A banner was raised by the crowds... ‘Stop killing civilians. Stop killing children.’ It was a very moving gesture, a message I loved seeing.” – [05:05] (Sharmali)

Tone: Deeply personal, somber, but resilient and quietly hopeful.

2. Ukraine, Russia, and Trump’s Sanctions Bluff

[07:11–16:28]

A. Escalating Russian Bombardment

• Russia has launched the heaviest attacks yet on Ukraine, with over 800 missiles and drones in a single night ([08:31]).
• Stephen DL’s Insight: “Putin is playing [Trump] for all he’s worth. Putin is simply laughing at Trump... The tragedy is he’s doing it by increasing evermore the number of missiles and drones fired at Ukraine.” – [08:17] (Stephen DL)

B. Are Sanctions Effective?

• Trump threatens “devastating sanctions,” but skepticism prevails.
  • Memorable Quote: “If [sanctions] were going to happen, wouldn’t it have happened by now?” – [10:52] (Andrew Muller)
• Russia’s economy is not typical; propaganda and a war economy keep it afloat.
  • “Putin can turn around and tap up his billionaires and say, give us more money... Russian people are fed a diet of propaganda, and they are told that we’re fighting this war to save Mother Russia.” – [11:07] (Stephen DL)

C. European Dependence on Russian Energy

• Many European nations (Hungary, France, Slovakia, Belgium, Spain) are still buying Russian fuel, providing about €22 billion to Russia each year ([12:29]).
  • Stephen DL: “There isn’t a good reason... That’s what really fuels Putin. The west really has to get behind this idea of unity.” – [13:05]

D. The American Line: Conditional Sanctions

• Trump’s demand: EU must stop buying Russian energy to push secondary sanctions on others (e.g., China, India).
  • “It amazes me to say it, but no, it’s not unreasonable. In this case, Trump and his coterie are right. The EU has got to show that it’s serious...” – [15:42] (Stephen DL)

3. UK Politics: Labour’s Predicament and the Rise of Reform

[17:22–27:36]

A. Labour Party at Crossroads

• Starmer’s first year as PM described as “embattled”; new party advice: “Stop making mistakes.”
  • Andrew Muller: “This electrifying bolt of wisdom has been discharged as the party looks for a new deputy leader...” – [17:35]
  • Zoe Grunewald: “You have to wonder what sort of conversations are going on in Number 10... This is code for listen to the party.” – [18:27]
• The party shifts right to counter populist Reform Party, but at risk of ignoring core progressive issues (NHS, cost of living).

B. Broad but Shallow Mandate

• Zoe Grunewald: “The landslide... was broad but shallow. You had lots of voters departing from the Conservatives, fed up with 14 years of conservative rule...” – [21:07]
• Labour’s election win was based more on anti-Conservative sentiment than positive enthusiasm.

C. Reform Party Threat

• Reform peaks in polls, led by Nigel Farage, but lacks coherent policies.
  • Stephen DL: “Farage, who is rather odious... has a certain charisma and he really played it up... The Labour Party has allowed it to become damaging instead of saying, well actually, Farage has got no policies.” – [22:52]
• Historical parallels to previous fleeting populist surges.

D. Lessons from the US and Brexit

• Merely labeling opponents as “kooks” or “charlatans” is ineffective.
  • Zoe Grunewald: “If they hadn’t learned that from the Democrats, they should have learned it from Brexit as well... These are opportunistic men who will seize disaffected voters and seize their anger.” – [26:11]

4. America’s Faltering Faith in Capitalism & Generational Political Shifts

[27:36–34:37]

A. Polls Reveal: Only 54% of Americans Now Positive on Capitalism ([27:36])

• Stephen DL: “Because they’re fed up with capitalism doesn’t mean... they’re going down the route of the Communist Party... It can fall both ways—many are going for Trumpism, which is definitely not socialism.” – [28:39]
• Need for better understanding of social democracy as an alternative.

B. Why Young People Turn Left—and Sometimes Right

• Housing, wage stagnation, and inequality breed disillusionment.
  • Zoe Grunewald: “Young people see that the system as it is doesn’t work for them. It’s very easy to tie that back to capitalism.” – [30:44]
• Polarization among youth; young men increasingly drawn to the far right or “tech-bro autocracy” ideas ([32:12]).

C. Older Generations: Not Necessarily More Conservative

• Some older people become more left wing with age, partly out of concern for their children’s bleak prospects.
  • Stephen DL: “We’re supposed to be getting more conservative as we get older, but we’re not. We’re actually becoming more left wing.” – [33:08]

5. Cultural Oddities: Londoners, Dogs, and Gourmet Pet Food

[34:37–37:25]

• Research suggests half of London’s dog owners spend more on dogs’ food than on their own.
  • Andrew Muller: “This is why the poor countries hate us. But do we actually believe any of this?” – [35:21]
  • Zoe Grunewald: “You do not have to spend this amount of money on your dog. Dogs will eat anything.” – [35:50]
• Analysis of pet-ownership as child-substitution in an expensive city.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Andrew Muller: “President Donald Trump, once again threatens devastating sanctions against Russia. Nobody holding breath.” – [00:06]
• Stephen DL on sanctions: “The Russian economy is not a normal economy... It’s set up for a war and that’s what it’s doing.” – [11:07]
• Zoe Grunewald on Labour: “Broad but shallow...in power, it turns out that voters want radical change. They want better public services, they want more money in their pockets.” – [21:07]
• Stephen DL on generational politics: “We’re actually becoming more left wing [with age]... I think that is a big change that’s happened all around.” – [33:08]

Segment Timestamps

• Letter from Gaza: [01:06–05:31]
• Discussion: Russia/Ukraine/Trump: [07:11–16:28]
• UK Politics and Reform Party: [17:22–27:36]
• Youth and Capitalism: [27:36–34:37]
• London’s Dog Owners: [34:37–37:25]

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• The episode is sharp, wry, and at times darkly comic, especially in Muller’s headlines and transitions.
• Realpolitik underscores international affairs: skepticism about Trump’s sanctions, European resolve, and Putin’s strategy.
• UK politics are painted as beset by division and lacking bold leadership, with the threat of right-wing populism rising.
• There’s a pervasive sense of generational and ideological realignment, both in the UK and elsewhere.
• Cultural notes end the show on a lighter, distinctly British note, blending the mundane (dog food) with incisive social commentary.

For listeners seeking a thorough, international briefing with wit and depth—the Monocle Daily delivers, mixing hard news, insight, and a discerning dash of levity.