The Morning Edition

Episode: "A crazy week ahead: Leadership spills and more Liberal defections"

Host: Samantha Selinger-Morris
Guest: Sean Kelly, columnist and veteran political analyst
Date: February 2, 2026

Overview

This episode dives into one of the most chaotic weeks in recent Australian political history, as the Coalition faces deep internal strife, with the possibility of both Liberal and National Party leadership spills. Host Samantha Selinger-Morris and political columnist Sean Kelly dissect the coalition’s turmoil, the surge of One Nation, the impact of economic pressure (specifically interest rates), and what political instability might mean for the Albanese government's agenda on housing and tax reform.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Coalition Chaos: Leadership Spills and Party Disunity

• The Coalition is experiencing rare levels of internal disruption, with high likelihood of leadership challenges against both Liberal leader Susan Lee and National Party leader David Littleproud. This turmoil is so intense, Sean Kelly dubs it "an absolutely crazy week."
  • Sean Kelly (01:27):

    “This is a crazy week. It is an absolutely crazy week to have this much chaos in both the coalition parties… to potentially have two leadership spills. Yeah, it’s absolutely insane.”

• Susan Lee is depicted as a leader unable to satisfy any majority within her party, regardless of her actions. Factional divides—moderates versus conservatives—are entrenched, echoing past leadership difficulties (e.g., Malcolm Turnbull’s tenure).
  • Sean Kelly (05:39):

    “Susan Lee can’t win. … Even people who didn’t support Susan Lee said, of course she had to [accept resignations], … but at the same time, the same people were saying, well, this means Susan Lee’s leadership is over. So right decision. And yet the, this was the death knell for her.”

  • Kelly notes some within the party may not fully accept her due to both her moderate stance and, implicitly, her gender.

2. The Nationals’ Stance and Cross-party Tensions

• Last week, resignations and shadow cabinet defections exacerbated the fracture between the parties. Nationals previously stated they could not serve under Susan Lee. However, there are now slight but notable shifts towards reconciliation.
  • Sean Kelly (03:49):

    “Now, that said, Susan Lee certainly seems to be holding out a bit of an olive branch. The rhetoric on the part of David Littleproud has certainly softened a bit…”

3. Interest Rate Hikes: The Uncontrollable Variable

• Outside of political infighting, an imminent interest rate rise could overshadow political maneuvering. Neither major party holds influence over this, but both are poised to blame each other or take credit as suits their narrative.
  • Sean Kelly (02:04):

    “The thing that will actually occupy a greater number of Australians … is the interest rate rise…because it risks significantly confusing the government’s narrative.”

4. One Nation's Surge and New Defections

• Polling shows One Nation commanding a quarter of voter support (higher among older demographics), surpassing the Coalition’s share. Pauline Hanson’s popularity is noted as the highest among current leaders, though caveats remain about the party’s instability.

  • Sean Kelly (08:04):

    “One Nation now commands one in four voters across Australia…meanwhile, fewer than one in five people support the coalition. If you are Gen X or a baby boomer…you are more likely to support One Nation than any other party.”

  • Sean Kelly (08:54):

    “[Pauline Hanson’s] approval numbers overall are now better than anyone’s, including the Prime Minister’s. … But if a few more people head over to One Nation, at this point, there is a point at which the coalition appears unsalvageable.”

• Anticipation surrounds possible high-profile Liberal defections to One Nation (including names like Alex Antic and Cory Bernardi), potentially deepening the coalition’s fracture.

  • Sean Kelly (10:30):

    “Cory Bernardi, not because he’s a … reasonable politician, but because he has a high profile. Alex Antic, because he has … been enormously influential within the South Australian Liberal Party.”

5. Government's Reform Agenda: Hints of Bold Moves in Housing & Tax

• Amid opposition chaos, Labor may be preparing for significant housing and/or tax reform—a shift from previous timidity. Hints from party insiders and the Treasurer suggest major policy changes may arrive with the next federal budget.

  • Sean Kelly (11:49):

    “AOP National Secretary Paul Erickson…said you will see some pretty substantial contributions over the coming months from the PM and from the treasurer…that the government has a real sense that 2026 provides a serious opportunity for reform.”

  • Sean Kelly (13:24):

    “The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, … said that he was impatient for reform and that housing was a defining element of the intergenerational challenge…”

• Negative gearing (tax arrangements for landlords) is a potential target for reform, though Chalmers remains careful about public signals.

  • Sean Kelly (15:39):

    “Peter Harcher wrote…that Jim Chalmers was interested in reforming negative gearing…But you would have to think negative gearing must at least be in the mix…”

• Housing challenges are closely connected with voter attitudes on immigration and the rise of far-right parties.

  • Sean Kelly (17:11):

    “Concerns around housing affordability and … economic stability… feed directly into questions voters have about immigration. … I think it would make a lot of sense for both of the major parties … to be pursuing housing … as a kind of way to head off Australians fears of immigration, to head off the rise of the far right in this country.”

6. Will Coalition Chaos Enable Bold Government Action?

• Whether prime opportunities for government reform arise from opposition disunity is debatable. On one hand, a weak opposition could embolden Labor; conversely, governments may act boldly only when pressured by strong, organized opposition.
  • Sean Kelly (18:49):

    “A lot of people will say, well, the government has a huge majority and the coalition is in chaos, therefore the government has enormous room to do whatever it likes… But the opposite argument is that governments always need to be pushed to do things really… unless you have an opposition kind of nipping at their heels, they’re unlikely to act as strongly as they would otherwise.”

Memorable Quotes

• Sean Kelly on the Liberal Party's plight (05:39):

  “Susan Lee can’t win. … This is the death knell for her. Now, that obviously is logically incoherent, but it speaks to the place that the Liberals have got to, which is essentially that Susan Lee can't win whatever she does.”

• Sean Kelly on polling and One Nation (08:04):

  “One Nation now commands one in four voters across Australia…Meanwhile, fewer than one in five people support the coalition. … These are really stunning figures and really damning for the Liberal Party.”

• Sean Kelly on reform: (11:49):

  “…government has a real sense that 2026 provides a serious opportunity for reform.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:03 – 01:27: Introduction and setting the stage for Coalition chaos
• 01:27 – 03:28: Nature and impact of possible leadership spills
• 03:28 – 07:06: Analysis of coalition alliances, cross-party friction
• 07:06 – 08:48: Polling, the Liberal Party’s “death spiral,” One Nation’s gains
• 08:48 – 10:30: Discussion on Pauline Hanson’s popularity & plausible new defections
• 11:26 – 15:39: Labor government’s signals toward bold reform; policy hints
• 15:39 – 17:11: Potential forms of reform; why housing policy is central
• 18:03 – 19:52: Will Coalition chaos motivate or inhibit daring reform?
• 19:52 – 20:26: Wrap-up and final thoughts

Tone & Style Notes

The conversation is direct, blunt, and inflected with both urgency and a sense of weariness with persistent party dysfunction. Sean Kelly’s commentary is sharp, analytical, and candid, while Samantha Selinger-Morris maintains a journalist’s curiosity and concern for underlying dynamics beyond the headlines.

Summary Takeaway

Australian politics is bracing for an extraordinary week: leadership uncertainty, fracturing coalitions, and minor party surges could all recalibrate the country's political alignment. Meanwhile, these fractures may (or may not) create a window for the Albanese government to execute long-awaited, potentially bold reforms—especially in housing and tax—all as economic anxieties rise. The balance of power is shifting, but exactly how, and whose hand will be strengthened, is far from clear. This episode provides a comprehensive breakdown for anyone seeking to understand the stakes and personalities at play in this pivotal moment.