Podcast Summary: The Morning Edition

Episode Title: A funeral, secret plots, and 'wayward children' — another messy week for the Coalition
Date: January 29, 2026
Host: Jacqueline Maley
Guest: Paul Sakkal (Chief Political Correspondent, The Age & The Sydney Morning Herald)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the intense disarray engulfing the Australian Coalition, specifically the ongoing rift between Liberals leader Susan Lee and Nationals leader David Littleproud. Against the backdrop of a looming leadership challenge, shadow cabinet drama, and behind-the-scenes plotting, the hosts dissect what these ruptures mean for the parties, their electoral prospects, and Australia's broader political future. The episode is laced with sharp observations, notable quotes, and colourful analogies, capturing the unusually chaotic state of conservative politics in Australia.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Coalition in Crisis: Total Breakdown

• Immediate Tension:
  • Jacqueline Maley introduces the episode referencing a "total breakdown" in the relationship between Susan Lee and David Littleproud, with both leaders facing leadership threats ([00:02]).
• Reality TV References:
  • The drama is likened to a reality show: "I'm a coalition mp, get me out of here" ([00:39]).
• Brand Damage:
  • Both hosts agree the "brand damage" to the Coalition is "totally incalculable" ([00:39]).

2. What Does the Split Actually Mean?

• Practical Implications Discussed:
  • Uncertainty over opposition party funding, shadow ministerships, and basic cooperation between the Liberals and Nationals ([00:41]).
• Shadow Cabinet Fallout:
  • Nationals frontbenchers resigned after breaching shadow cabinet solidarity over Labor’s hate speech laws; Susan Lee accepted resignations, but not all subsequent resignations have been formally processed ([02:33]-[05:23]).
  • The split isn’t formalised yet but the coalition is in an unstable holding pattern.

3. The Stakes for Both Parties

• Power Dynamics:
  • Nationals rely on Liberals for Senate seats, staff, and resources—without which they're "a spent political force" ([06:08]).
  • The split would leave both parties with diminished influence.

4. The "Wayward Children": Dysfunction and Personal Animosity

• Comparison to ‘Succession’:
  • Paul Sakkal references columnist Sean Carney comparing Coalition MPs to the "wayward children" in Succession; “these are not serious people” ([01:25]).
• Quotes about Toxicity:
  • “There are huge egos everywhere… it cements in the minds of many voters what they suspect about Canberra: it's a bit of a cesspit.” – Paul Sakkal ([02:33])
• Behavioural Standards:
  • Jacqueline Maley: “Any listener… in their own workplaces, this kind of behaviour would be completely unacceptable… It’s kind of extraordinary, isn’t it?” ([01:49])

5. The Nationals’ Dilemma

• Losing Perks:
  • Nationals give up staff, pay, prestige by leaving the shadow cabinet (a $60,000 pay cut noted) ([05:25]-[06:46]).
  • Reliance on Liberal partnership for Senate viability, especially in NSW—that’s “basically a subsidy” ([06:22]).
• Why the Split?
  • Hostility between Lee and Littleproud runs deep (“such an ideological gulf, such a severe schism … shown various, at various points disrespect towards the other.” – Sakkal, [08:16]).

6. Impact on Policy and Broader Politics

• Loss of Focus:
  • While the Coalition fights internally, serious national issues—like the Chinese threats over Port Darwin and inflation—are sidelined ([09:42]-[10:59]).
  • “They don’t have their eye on the game at all in terms of what the Australian people want or policy development.” – Jacqueline Maley ([10:55])
• Inflation Battle:
  • The government’s inflation narrative is “beautiful terrain for the Liberal Party” but the opposition is too distracted to capitalise ([10:59]-[11:06]).

7. Leadership Spills and Secret Plots

• Leadership Threats:
  • David Littleproud faces a challenge from Colin Boyce but it's unlikely to succeed. The leadership instability, though, ignites longer-term speculation ([11:34]-[14:08]).
  • “It’s a bit like trying to weld square pipe to round pipe.” – On reconciling the Coalition, Sakkal quoting Boyce ([12:53]).
• The Nationals' Tradition:
  • "The Nationals are notorious for pretty speedy leadership changes. Their party room is so small that you only ever need really two or three votes to switch one way or the other. And that leader's dead." – Sakkal ([14:39])

8. Funeral Plots and Liberal Party Intrigue

• Shakespearean Scene:
  • Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are pictured meeting just before Katie Allen’s funeral, fuelling speculation about plotting against Susan Lee ([15:15]-[15:42]).
  • “It's a bit Shakespearean…having all this intrigue around a funeral and plotting around a funeral.” – Sakkal ([15:37])
• Factional Divisions:
  • The Liberal party is roughly split between moderates and conservatives; leadership change hinges on the right uniting behind one candidate ([16:22]-[17:19]).

9. The Existential Crisis and One Nation Surge

• Polling Shock:
  • One Nation polling at up to 25%, Liberal Party support in the low 20s or even high teens in some seats—described as “tectonic shifts” ([19:32]).
  • MPs see the situation as “existential” for the party: “not only is Susan Lee’s leadership buffeted by the chaos … the situation is so dire … MPs are now starting to speak in existential terms.” – Sakkal ([19:27])
• Possible End of Two-Party Dominance:
  • Maley: “Maybe that’s what we’re looking at, if they could ever agree on terms or ever get round to thinking about policy.” ([22:51])
  • Open speculation that Australia may permanently shift away from the traditional two-party system.

10. Where Does This Leave Labor?

• Albanese’s Opportunity:
  • Although Albanese copped criticism, he seems to have weathered the storm and is moving on to defining his agenda ([23:43]).
  • The upcoming National Press Club speech will outline government priorities, with signs pointing to a year dominated by economic and budgetary concerns ([23:43]-[25:59]).
  • “The budget will be an important budget in May. Inflation pressure is back…” – Sakkal ([25:44])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:25] Paul Sakkal:
  “These are not serious people,” referencing Succession’s Logan Roy about the Coalition’s dysfunction.
• [02:33] Sakkal:
  "…it cements in the minds of many voters what they suspect about Canberra, which is that it's a bit of a cesspit. People are power hungry. There are huge egos everywhere."
• [05:25] Maley:
  “On a basic level…the shadow ministries that the Nationals have now, you know, these Nationals members have now given up, they come with an extra $60,000 in pay… that will all be gone.”
• [14:39] Sakkal:
  "The Nationals are notorious for pretty speedy leadership changes. Their party room is so small that you only ever need really two or three votes to switch one way or the other. And that leader's dead."
• [15:37] Sakkal:
  "It's a bit Shakespearean or something, having all this intrigue around a funeral and plotting around a funeral."
• [16:22] Sakkal:
  "For an alternative leader to beat Susan Lee… the right… will need to be united behind one. If there’s two candidates from the right, that half will be split… So until Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor can come to a resolution… this leadership spill ain't happening."
• [19:32] Sakkal:
  “Those aren’t like bad polls. They’re like tectonic shifts in conservative voting patterns that could just cut the knees off the Liberal Party.”
• [22:51] Maley:
  “Maybe that’s what we’re looking at, if they could ever agree on terms or ever get round to thinking about policy.”
• [25:57] Sakkal:
  "They're not very good at [trimming spending]."

Important Timestamps

• [00:02] – Episode introduction: The Coalition’s “total breakdown”
• [01:25] – Comparisons to Succession and “wayward children”
• [02:33] – Canberra’s “cesspit” reputation and toxic politics
• [05:25] – The practical problems of a formal split: pay, staff, and Senate seats
• [11:34] – Nationals’ leadership challenge, Boyce’s spill motion
• [14:39] – Nationals’ history of rapid leadership change
• [15:37] – Funeral plotting: “Shakespearean” party intrigue
• [16:22] – Factional calculus required for a successful Liberal leadership spill
• [19:32] – Shocking polling and existential fears for the Liberal Party
• [22:51] – The prospect of permanent multiparty government
• [23:43] – Labor’s position and the opportunity in opposition chaos
• [25:44] – Looking ahead: Budget, economic pressures, and government narrative

Tone & Style

• Conversational, witty, and occasionally irreverent, with pop culture and Shakespearean references.
• Frustration is evident at the perceived self-destructive behaviour of the Coalition, and concern is expressed for the implications for policy and democratic standards.
• Both speakers maintain a balance of inside analysis and broader commentary accessible to non-experts.

For listeners new to this political saga, this episode lays bare the mess, the personalities and the stakes, making sense of the chaos and why it matters for Australia’s future.