Bravado and the backflip: Peter Hartcher on Trump's 24 hours of 'madness'

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: Bravado and the backflip: Peter Hartcher on Trump's 24 hours of 'madness'
Podcast: The Morning Edition (The Age and Sydney Morning Herald)
Date: July 15, 2026
Host: Samantha Selinger-Morris
Guest: Peter Hartcher (International and Political Editor, reporting from Washington, D.C.)

This episode dives into a dramatic and confusing 24-hour period in U.S. foreign policy under President Trump. It examines his erratic handling of escalating tensions with Iran, including a sudden announcement (and retraction) of a shipping toll on the Strait of Hormuz—a move that would have global economic impacts, potentially even constituting a war crime. The conversation explores the broader pattern of impulsive, reckless policymaking, the strategic consequences for the US, and what this means for the ongoing war and Trump's domestic and international standing.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump's Wild 24 Hours: Escalation, Backpedal, and Threat

• Initial Move: Trump announced the imposition of a 20% shipping toll on all vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz ([00:07]). This would have spiked petrol prices and driven global inflation.
• Swift Reversal: Within a day, and less than an hour before this recording, Trump abruptly walked back the policy ([01:28]).
• Further Escalation: Despite backing down, Trump simultaneously threatened attacks on Iranian infrastructure—actions described as potential war crimes ([00:07], [01:42]).

Notable Quote:
“This administration is very adept at the sudden escalation, only to shrewdly de-escalate 24 hours later.”
—Peter Hartcher ([01:16])

2. Policy Chaos and Comparisons

• The episode highlights a pattern of reckless, ideologically driven initiatives quickly reversed under pressure. A February example involved sacking—and then rehiring within 24 hours—180 staff from the US Nuclear Safety Agency ([03:20]).
• Hartcher attributes this volatility to poor governance and a lack of consultation, calling this Hormuz toll idea "stupid, stupid" and "nutty" ([06:46]).

Notable Quote:
“Even Donald Trump doesn't want nuclear weapons going off in his backyard.”
—Peter Hartcher ([03:20])

3. Reasons Behind the U-turn

• Trump’s frustration at stalled negotiations with Iran led him to this dramatic, ultimately unfeasible policy. Disagreements over the ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)—specifically Clause 5, concerning control over the Strait—sparked renewed hostilities ([04:52]).
• While Iran claims new leverage and responsibility, the US wanted the Strait kept open unconditionally.

Notable Quote:
“If there were any proper consultation process in this government, he would never have said it. But instead, he's embarrassed himself once again.”
—Peter Hartcher ([06:46])

4. Economic and Global Repercussions

• The 20% toll would directly raise global oil prices by $15–$17 per barrel, affecting inflation worldwide ([06:46]).

• The policy's economic madness is underlined by its clash with efforts to curb inflation:
  “Taming inflation is a persistent problem in most countries, but also in the US. Trump promised to bring prices down. Instead, he's putting them up.”
  —Peter Hartcher ([06:46])

• Trump's after-the-fact claim that Middle Eastern countries would instead invest massive sums in the US is dismissed as "frankly absurd" ([06:46]).

5. Strategic Dynamics: Iran's Advantage

• The episode delves into Iran now holding "escalation dominance":
  “Iran now has escalation dominance. Right. That really it is in control of how far this war escalates. Donald Trump is not in control here.”
  —Samantha Selinger-Morris ([10:06])

• The US is burning through its strategic oil reserves and munitions, while Iran’s low-tech war methods are proving effective and sustainable ([10:58]).

Notable Quote:
“Operation Epic Fury, which has turned into Operation Epic Failure.”
—Peter Hartcher ([10:58])

• Iranian hardliners have consolidated power. The civilian president is sidelined. IRGC now dominates policy and messaging ([12:39]).

6. Consequences and Prospects for a Deal

• The US had already offered significant concessions in the form of unfreezing up to $100 billion in Iranian assets as part of previous negotiations ([13:47]).
• With Iran now controlling critical leverage points, Hartcher suggests “the price presumably will have to go out" for a future settlement ([14:43]).

7. Domestic Fallout & Republican Reaction

• The war is damaging Trump’s and the Republicans’ political standing as the midterms loom. Oil prices, US humiliation, and ongoing chaos are major concerns ([15:03]).
• Yet, Trump’s backflip is not the top news story in Washington—outpaced even by ICE agents' misconduct—highlighting a surfeit of chaos in the US (“high grade and sustained chaos” ([16:31]).

Notable Quote:
“If you have to present your war as a success only by measure against Vietnam, you know, you've really buggered it up.”
—Peter Hartcher ([15:03])

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Memorable Quotes & Segments (with Timestamps)

• Bravado and Whiplash:
  "Full of confidence and bravado, and then 24 hours later, it's gone."
  —Peter Hartcher ([02:05])

• The Absurdity of the Toll:
  "It was simply a nutty idea that he really should never have gone near."
  —Peter Hartcher ([06:46])

• Iran’s Strategic Edge:
  "The Iranians are having a good time as a middle power, defying all the might and fury. It's so-called Operation Epic Fury, which has turned into Operation Epic Failure."
  —Peter Hartcher ([10:58])

• Bureaucratic Recklessness:
  "A high point of recklessness, ignorance, this sort of exuberant, ideologically driven concept that government of any kind is inherently evil."
  —Peter Hartcher ([03:20])

• Washington Mood:
  "I would rate Trump better than that. I would say this is high grade and sustained chaos."
  —Peter Hartcher ([16:31])

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• Trump’s Toll Announcement & Retraction – [00:07] – [03:03]
• Comparison to Nuclear Safety Agency Fiasco – [03:20]
• Breakdown in US-Iran Negotiations – [04:52] – [06:14]
• Economic Impact and Inflation Concerns – [06:46]
• Iran’s Escalation Dominance & US Strategic Weakness – [10:06] – [12:39]
• Potential for Settlement and US Concessions – [13:47]
• GOP & Media Reaction in Washington – [15:03] – [16:31]

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Tone & Language

Hartcher’s tone is analytical, critical, and at times sardonic—he describes Trump’s decisions as “stupid,” “nutty,” “reckless,” and “frankly absurd” throughout. The conversation remains focused, brisk, and explanatory, providing both context and pointed critique without hyperbole.

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Summary for New Listeners

This episode gives a swift, in-depth analysis of Trump’s rapidly shifting policies on the Iran conflict, highlighting the dangers and absurdities of impulsive leadership. It explains both the economic and strategic implications for the US, the growing strength of Iran's regime, and the mounting domestic costs for Trump and his party. If you missed the whirlwind of U.S. mid-East policy chaos in July 2026, this is essential listening—with pointed commentary, solid context, and no-holds-barred assessment from inside Washington.

Transcript

[A]

The last day or so has been a time of madness for Donald Trump, according to many seasoned onlookers. First, he announced that he would impose a shipping toll on the Strait of Hormuz, something that would jack up petrol prices and spike inflation. Then he backed down, only to then threaten to take out Iranian bridges and power plants, a move that could be considered a war crime. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening to the MORNING EDITION from the Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today. International and political editor Peter Harcher reports from Washington, D.C. on what might be the American president's most consequential flip flop to date.

[B]

Peter, welcome back to the podcast.

[C]

A pleasure, Samantha.

[B]

Okay, Peter, you've got us. Tell us about Donald Trump's latest escalation with the war in Iran. And then just 45 minutes, really, before recording this early on Wednesday morning, Australian time, his backflip. What's happening? It's getting hard to keep track of. Peter.

[C]

Well, yes, this administration is very adept at the sudden escalation, only to shrewdly de escalate 24 hours later, the president

[D]

updating on the Strait of Hormuz, saying he is abandoning an idea that he floated to charge a toll for ships passing through the strait.

[B]

The state said he was reversing what he said yesterday about that threat of charging a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

[E]

I just told you, you have Saudi Arabia, uae, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Primari I spoke to all of them and they would love to invest more money in the United States at record amounts. And that would be very acceptable. And this way, there's no fee. I don't like the concept of a fee.

[C]

But at the same time, a day ago, the president declared that the US would start imposing a 20% fee on all the shipping that emerged through the Gulf of Hormuz. And now no longer. He's withdrawn it. When the Iranians threatened to do it three weeks ago, it was derisively called an attempt to set up the Tehran toll booth. And the Americans laughed at it. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it's illegal to charge shipping, to put any sort of a charge on shipping through a natural waterway. It's ridiculous. No country can do that. And then three weeks later, his own president announces the policy, you know, full of confidence and bravado, and then 24 hours later, it's gone.

[B]

It's quite shocking, really, isn't it? I mean, you and I were talking right before recording that he has had a habit, of course, of whiplashing, you know, declaring, you know, remarkable policies or announcements, and then very quickly backtracking. But this is perhaps setting a new record record even for Donald Trump.

[C]

Yeah, the only equivalent speed record I could find was in February when the President appointed Elon Musk to that so called doge exercise of cutting the size of the federal bureaucracy when they sacked 180 staff members from the Nuclear Safety Agency, the agency responsible for making sure that all U.S. fissile materials and missiles are stored safely, secured properly, maintained safely, only to rehire them 24 hours later after a series of absolutely frantic calls from Congress members and senators who had to point out to the administration the risk involved in what they'd done. That was a high point of recklessness, ignorance, this sort of exuberant, ideologically driven concept that government of any kind is inherently evil. But of course, they quickly reverse that decision, because even Donald Trump doesn't want nuclear weapons going off in his backyard.

[B]

Okay, so tell us what led up to this? Because only very recently, the United States and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding. There was what they were calling a ceasefire. And then, and then, of course, this. So what's happened, Peter?

[C]

Well, it seems that Donald Trump simply grew frustrated with his inability to negotiate a firm settlement with the Iranians that could open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open. The two countries had a disagreement on the meaning of Clause 5 of the Memorandum of understanding that they'd agreed to. Iranians said it clearly left them with responsibility for the management of the strait, which of course, was not something that they had tried to exercise before being attacked by Israel and the US in this war launched on February 28th. But now that they've seen they can do it, they want to hold on to that power, that leverage. And Donald Trump insists, no, that's not what the memorandum means. It means it's just supposed to open the strait. And over that disagreement, the two sides have started shelling the Iranians, shelling commercial shipping, getting, trying to pass through without their permission, and the Americans then counter shelling the Iranians. So at the same time that he announced this 20% charge, Trump also informed the Congress that the war was now restored and that the negotiating period was over. But in effect, they will continue to negotiate one way or another.

[B]

Okay, so tell us what we can, I guess, read possibly from these actions of Donald Trump. Is this announcement, and then very quick backflip that he was going to charge a toll for ships entering the Strait of Hormuz. Is this just a sheer act of Desperation. Is this just evidence that this war has gone completely out of Donald Trump's grasp? Was he even serious with this threat to begin with? Because surely that wouldn't have been something that. I don't even know if the United States could manage that, actually. Tolling ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

[C]

Well, your last thought there really is the whole reason that this is so risible. Who can take seriously now any negotiating position he offers? Who can deal with this? Who can trust or give any credibility to this leader? I mean, this is just a joke, really. If it weren't so serious, we would be laughing out loud. Look, it was a stupid, stupid idea. Apart from anything else. By putting a 20% levy on the price of everything coming through the Gulf of Hormuz, Trump was putting a 20% price premium on the oil flowing through the Gulf, which would directly go onto the price of global oil. Now, that's about 20% on the current oil price. Well, that's about 15 to 17 US dollars a barrel. So that pushes up then the price of, of course, petrol and diesel around the world, but it also pushes up inflation. And on this very day, we had the new chairman of the Federal Reserve testifying to the Congress to say that the inflation problem has not been solved and keeping open the option of having to raise interest rates again. So this is madness. Taming inflation is a persistent problem in most countries, but also in the us Trump promised to bring prices down. Instead, he's putting them up. And then he adds, on top of that, this bizarrely bad idea of an extra surcharge on the price, and it would not only affect oil, it would also affect hydrogen, it would affect fertilizer, go directly into the base input costs for oil and for agriculture flowing on around the world. It was simply a nutty idea that he really should never have gone near. And if there were any proper consultation process in this government, he would never have said it. But instead, he's embarrassed himself once again and he's tried to climb out of it with a completely unsubstantiated claim that Middle Eastern countries, instead of paying this premium, asked him instead to accept. Massive is his word, massive investments. It's frankly absurd.

[A]

After the break.

[C]

So the US Is paying a high price and the Iranians are loving extracting that price. It's encouraged, vindicated, the most hardline elements of the Iranian regime.

[D]

Virginia Giuffre helped vanquish A Prince and a Millionaire. And I won't stop fighting.

[B]

I will never be silenced.

[D]

But one of her toughest battles was a very private one. It was the worst thing that could have happened to her, her children or her life. Virginia, a podcast from the newsrooms of the age, the Sydney Morning Herald and WA Today out now.

[B]

And so all of this, I guess, gives credence to what you and I and others are hearing from military analysts overseas and around the world, really, that Iran now has escalation, dominance. Right. That really it is in control of how far this war escalates. Donald Trump is not in control here. So given that, is there any clear path forward for Donald Trump as to how he could compel Iran to, to end this war?

[C]

I think the popular parlance these days for that, Samantha, is Iran holds all the cards.

[B]

Yeah, as much as Donald Trump says the opposite. Right. I mean, he's been issuing all kinds of threats on social media, or at least he was 12 hours before we started recording this. I think, you know, he was sort of saying he's going to keep hitting them and. Yeah, all kinds of threats.

[C]

Well, the Iranians are enjoying this position. I mean, it's not good for their economy, it's not good for their people. But for the regime, for the international standing, for the legitimacy of their claim to, to be defending against the U.S. the Iranians are having a good time as a middle power, defying all the might and fury. It's so called Operation Epic Fury, which has turned into Operation Epic Failure. And the Israelis as well, they're showing that they can continue to defy the US and with every passing day, although the Iranian economy is getting worse, conditions are awful and inflation continues to increase. But the cost that the US Is paying is that with each passing day, it continues to run down its strategic oil reserve, which is now badly depleted because it's been doing that to try and suppress the global oil price while it conducts this pointless war. At the same time, they're depleting their stocks of munitions, which are dangerously low levels. Already the Iranians seem to be able to quickly ramp up production of their munitions, some of which are very simple, fast boats with mines you can push off the back, Shahid drones, which you can assemble in your garage. They're basic, low, cost, effective, and quickly replaced. And the whole thing, in addition, is weighing on Trump's political standing at home in the US with the midterm elections approaching. So the US Is paying a high price and the Iranians are loving extracting that price. And it's encouraged, vindicated, the most hard line elements of the Iranian regime, whose position politically, internally has now been strengthened, immeasurably we never hear anymore from the president, the civilian President Possesskian. We only hear from the Revolutionary Guard Corps because they're now in control. They're humiliating the country that they call the Great Satan, and Israel, which they call the Little Satan, and they're loving it.

[B]

And so is there any sort of indication or does this tell us anything about what sort of concessions Trump might be pushed to make to end this war with Iran? I mean, certainly since this began in February, since America struck Iran, he's been talking about how he's gonna get a much better deal than Obama got with the deal that he'd made with Iran. What are we seeing, I guess, out of this in terms of what Trump might have to agree to, to finally end this?

[C]

Well, in the MOU that they signed four weeks ago, they did agree that they would unfreeze various Iranian assets that had been frozen in bank accounts around the world. And depending on which ones you look at and how you define that, it could be up to US$100 billion. So that's a substantial concession that the US had already made. Now that's in abeyance while things are in this mess. Now, that's similar, but with a larger dollar figure attached to what the Obama administration and the other European nations in that negotiation had agreed to under the Obama administration. But I don't know if that will be enough anymore because at that point, the Iranians did not have this coercive grip on the Strait of Hormuz and the oil flow. Now they do. So the price presumably will have to go out.

[B]

And so, Peter, you, as it happens, you're in Washington D.C. as we're recording this. So what are Republicans in the US Saying about this latest move of Trump's? I mean, are you hearing anything? Are they panicking? Especially in light of the fact that these midterm elections are looming. They're, they're in November.

[C]

Well, from what I've seen and heard, the. Well, we know that the Republicans are not enjoying this dragged out war which is now in its fifth month. And Trump said initially would take four to six weeks. When he defends it, as he did a couple of days ago, he defended it by comparing it to the Vietnam War. He said, oh, that went for 20 years. This has only been going for four months. Now, if you have to present your war as a success only by measure against Vietnam, you know, you've really buggered it up. The Republicans, of course, would love to see the price of petrol come back down. They would love to see America stop humiliating itself. But interestingly, the US Media news coverage of this backdown of Trump's you would expect to be the topline story in every report. And it's not. It's about number two or three in the news rankings at the moment here in D.C. and one of the reasons for that is that the top story is the ICE agents again murdering civilians in the streets. That's topping the outrage and news charts and again, dismaying Republicans who are not enjoying any of this.

[B]

So low level sort of muted chaos. Is that the sort of feeling in Washington right now, Peter?

[C]

I would rate Trump better than that. I would say this is high grade and sustained chaos.

[B]

Wow. Well, thank you so much, Peter, as always, for your time.

[C]

It's a pleasure, Samantha.

[A]

Today's episode was produced by Chi Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. And our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow the Morning edition and leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.