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Tony Abbott is one of our most divisive former prime ministers. His pugilistic tone and fight to turn back illegal boats made many feel safer. Others jeered when he appointed himself the Minister for women and cheered when he was turfed by his own party during his first term as prime minister. And now, after Tony Abbott's last public defeat seven years ago, he's back. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris and you're listening to the Morning edition From the Age and the City Morning Herald. Today, chief political commentator James Masola on whether Tony Abbott as the new president of the Liberal Party can save the party from extinction and if what Abbott really wants is to become opposition leader. James, welcome back.
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A
Good day, Sam, good to be with you.
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B
Okay. I can't wait to speak to you about this because you've just written about Tony Abbott's selection as president of the Liberal Party as being like something of a knife edge situation, right. In terms of whether Australians will see him in a great light or perhaps a disastrous one. You've described his selection as a Rorschach test in this way. So walk us through this. What did you mean by that?
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A
Most Australians, whether they love him or hate him, have a pretty strong opinion on Tony Abbott and his period as opposition leader than his shorter period as pm. He was far from universally popular, I think it's safe to say, you know, the sort of left of politics. Sam, plenty of people on the left hated him, but for the coalition for Conservative types, he was kind of a standard bearer and still is to this day. What happened last Friday in terms of the election of Tony Abbott to the presidency of the Liberal Party is quite a big deal. Now, it's not a, it's not a role that necessarily, you know, kind of signs off on detailed policy and what have you, but it is a role that sets the tone, helps set the agenda, helps set the focus for the coalition for the Liberal Party, you know, in the next couple of years ahead. And you know, what did I mean by it being a Rorschach test? Well, I mean, this is what we're about to find out. Does Mr. Abbott's return to the presidency, does that sort of presage a return of the strength and support for the coalition parties or does it kind of remind people like, hang on, there's that guy who was Prime Minister 11 years ago who was a bit crazy and I didn't like him much by the end there. And why is he back now? Do you know what I mean? Like, it's. Yes, the Liberal Party's throwing a huge chunk of red meat on the table. And there was a sort of asked people to say, you know, do you like steak or not? Make up your mind. Cause we've got a really big piece of red meat, you know, on the table, as it were.
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B
That's right. I mean, as you mentioned in your column, like, this is the. Dude. You didn't use the word dude, but this is the guy that, you know, he made that decision to knight Prince Philip that was obviously mocked very widely. You know, we know him for eating onions and budgie smugglers. And obviously, more importantly, lost his own seat in 2019 to Teal's candidate Zali Steggle. Right, so defeat.
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A
No, indeed. And look, do we think. Did the Australian people get it wrong? Do we think that Australians get it wrong when they make decisions at the ballot box on election day? I generally think no. I think, you know, if you look back over the last at least seven or eight prime ministers, probably going way back, like, who was the one which was the election that they. That you could sort of say that the Australian people got it wrong. Like, did Peter Dutton really deserve to beat ANTHONY Albanese in 2025? No, probably not. You know, did Scott Morrison deserve to beat Bill Shorten? Yeah, he probably did. You know, did Tony Abbott deserve to win in a landslide in 2013? Yep, he did. Labor had been a bad government and, you know, did Kevin Rudd in 07, did he deserve to win? Yeah, you know, John Howard's time was up. People generally get it right. I think that's my starting point in Australian politics. So they booted him out in 2019. He lost the seat of Warringah to Zali Steggle. As you say, why go back? That's the bit I'm kind of puzzling over. But then, conversely, Sam, you know, the Liberal Party's at the lowest ebb probably in its history. So doesn't it need people like Tony Abbott pulling all in the same direction, trying to restore the party's fortunes?
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B
Okay, well, we're gonna get into that. But first I have to ask you about one of the great controversies that I think is surrounding this very new appointment, which is the rumors that we keep hearing that, you know, perhaps this is Taylor just absolutely making a fatal mistake signing his eviction. Not because Tony Abbott, even in his three days at the time of recording, in this new job of his, he sort of makes for a More convincing opposition leader than Angus Taylor does. So what are you hearing in Parliament House? Like, are people whispering in the corridors that, oh, my God, Abbott's just here to take over from Angus Taylor? Like, what are you hearing? Tell us, tell us the inside scoop, James.
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A
There's a couple of steps to clear before a couple of hurdles to clear before it becomes opposition leader again. But, I mean. Yeah, so again, go back a couple of days. I spoke to Mr. Abbott on Friday after he, you know, rose to the. Was elected president. I'm sure a heap of other journalists did as well. And he was turning down media requests. He did a five minute speech after the election, then he sort of didn't do anything else. And he said to me, and I don't think I'm, you know, speaking out of school. He said, I don't want to distract from Angus's message. You know, Angus is the leader now, not me. That's fine. But three days later, I mean, today he's done. Was it Channel Nine's Today Show, ABC's Radio National Breakfast? He was just on Sky a little while ago. There's a fundraising email that's been sent out in his name by the Liberal Party headquarters. He's everywhere. And look again, that's fine if you think that's a winning strategy, but it does ask questions or suggest questions, like, you know, is the depth on the Liberal Party's actual front bench so thin that they need to sort of roll out a former prime minister? And secondly, yes, to your point and to the point I made in the column, he hasn't lost a lot. It's been, you know, close to 16 years since Mr. Abbott first became opposition leader. He was a devastatingly good opposition leader. He, you know, whatever you think of his policies, and plenty of people didn't like him in the end, he was able to cut through with those three word slogans in a way that I've never seen an opposition leader manage since. And he hasn't lost a yard. He's still able to do that. He sounds more polished than Angus Taylor, who's been in this job for three years, three and a half months and is still finding his feet. So there's a danger there for the Liberal Party too. What are people saying in the corridors of Parliament House? Really depends who you talk to amongst Liberal MPs, but some of them are terrified and they tend to be the kind of MPs at the moderate end of the spectrum who think, really want to go back to a Prime Minister, you know, having, you know, a Former Prime Minister in such a forward facing role. And do we really want to remind people about his time in power and do we really want, you know, Angus and Tony to be bracketed together in people's minds? And most of all they're worried about the distraction of, you know, let's say Abbott doing a series of media interviews which lo and behold he's done this morning and taking away from Angus Taylor's message rather than amplifying it.
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B
Okay, so tell us, I guess brass tacks like what is Tony Abbott saying that he wants to actually accomplish as party president? You know, you said there right at the top that you know, the party president sets the to tone and perhaps the future direction of the party. So what's he told us so far?
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A
Look, the email this morning was essentially I'm here to help Angus Taylor remove Labor's toxic taxes. I'm here to help fundraise for the Liberal Party. I'm here to kind of distil the message and reconnect with the party's base. I mean, look, reading between the lines, Sam, in part the reason he's there is to reconnect with one nation voters who were Liberal voters and who have deserted the Liberal Party because they've been so disappointed in the sort of circus of the last, well, at least 18 months, I guess I'd say.
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B
Well, let's talk about how much further to the right this could mean that the party goes. Because we do know that Tony Abbott in one of his statements since he's been elected as president, he said, you know, henceforth as liberals we will stand proudly under our one national flag. We'll change the law to stop safe spaces being invaded by men who say they are women and so forth and so forth. So he's flagging that he's really going to punch hard on these culture wars issues. Right. So I, Yeah, what do you think this I guess portends for the Liberal Party? Like how far right, you know. Yeah, how far right are they gonna go? I guess.
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A
Look, I don't know the exact answer for that, but I'd put a question back to you Sam, and that's this. You're absolutely right that he's determined to come out swinging on these so called culture war issues. I don't think that, well, I think a lot of Australians would agree with him on, you know, this issue or that issue. But what I don't think is that people, you know, the average Aussie is waking up every day and thinking oh, you know, those gender fluid bathrooms or those you know, unisex bathrooms or men getting access, you know, men who've become women getting access to female bath. I don't think people are waking up thinking this is the number one issue that needs to be tackled in Australia today. They're probably thinking, it's cold, it's winter, I've got a mortgage to pay, everything costs more and I'm fed up with it. You know, I just think that they're not waking up, itching to fight a culture war.
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Definitely not. I mean, we know that from polling. It's not even just you thinking it, isn't it? I mean, we know from polling over God knows how long a period now that, you know, people are. Well, they're obviously in a housing crisis. We've got cost of living problems.
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So every time we do a resolve poll, and that's once a month, we're working towards the next one soon. When you ask voters to nominate their number one issue, it's like as far back as the eye can see, it's cost of living at around 40, 45% as people's number one issue. Within that, specifically housing, is 10%. And then all of the other issues, defence, education, health, workplace relations, they're all somewhere between sort of one and about 8%. Cost of living is. Is at least four times more important to everyone than any other single issue. And it hasn't moved, the dial has not moved for years.
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B
After the break.
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I wouldn't be surprised if there was some small part of him that wants to be in the federal Parliament again. And then once he's in the federal Parliament, I don't see how he could resist if the opportunity were to arise, being opposition leader.
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B
So is this move going to, I mean, I know I'm asking you to look into your crystal ball that I see you have right next to you there, James Masolo. But is this going to just move the party even further towards extinction than it already is? Because we know that just on Friday Tony Abbott had said the party was in an existential crisis. He's obviously not going to get many people disagreeing with him on that count. He said the party needs to position itself as the, quote, patriot Party, unquote. The Liberals are the, quote, Freedom Party. So to me I hear shades of Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots there, which in itself just seemed to be aping Donald Trump. I don't know, are you seeing nail in a coffin time or no?
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A
No, I'd say the opposite, Sam. What I'm saying and why I think they've made this move is and sorry, I'm not saying that they're about to rocket back up to 52% primary vote or anything. I'm. What this is about is shoring up the Liberal Party's base. That's why they've brought Tony Abbott into, I think into a more frontline role now. He's already very close to Angus Taylor. He's been a mentor to Angus Taylor for years. He, Angus was elected and entered Parliament in the year that Abbott won his landslide victory in 2013. What this is about is putting a floor under things now. The coalition's been polling sort of 23, 24% like they're record breaking low primary vote figures. This is about stopping it going any further essentially and winning back some of those people who've defected to one nation, you know, not forgetting that one nation's actually ahead of the coalition in the polls, 24, 25% thereabouts. It's about bringing some of those people back and Abbott has as much as said that himself. Beyond that, like, does the return of Abbott get the coalition up to a primary vote in the 40s, which or high 30s, which they need to actually win an election? I'm not as sure that it does that, but it does draw a line under things, I think.
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B
But do you reckon that's a massive political gamble, you know, trying to out Hanson, Pauline Hanson, as it were? Obviously the Albanese government has already taken this line that, you know, it's mocking Tony Abbott's election as, you know, saying the former Prime Minister was out of touch with mainstream Australia, which is, I think what you're suggesting there as well with the fact that arguably Australians are not interested in these cultural war issues. It's not something that's keeping them up at night. Whereas, you know, the mortgage payments. Buying food of course is so yeah. James Masola, is this a massive gamble?
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A
It's. No, I think it's a medium sized gamble. I think it works to get the coalition up to a respectable maybe in fact, I'm not even sure if that's respectable, But a respectable 25, 28, 29% of the primary vote. I don't think this, you know, the sort of return of Tony Abbott to the main political stage in Australian life, I don't think that's an election winning strategy but I don't think that that's despite what the Coalition MPs will tell you, oh no, we can definitely win the next one. I don't think anyone seriously believes that just because of the sheer number of seats that Albanese won at the last election, sort of. I think they have a two term strategy and winning back 10 or 15 seats at the next election is step one. And that's what I think they are hoping that the return of Tony Abbott is going to sort of drive, if you like. Sam.
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B
Now you've interviewed our former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, of course, as you mentioned before. So I'm just curious, did you get a sense from him does he really think he is the savior here or is this perhaps a stab at remaining relevant? I mean like you say, he hasn't been in Parliament for a while, had a bit of a humiliating defeat. You know, he likes the limelight, like all politicians.
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A
He definitely likes the limelight. Look, he's not been on the main stage as I said a moment ago, Sam, but he's never really stepped back from involvement in politics in a way that's sort of, ah, the opposite of Julia Gillard, but I'm thinking more of sort of Malcolm Turnbull, Scott Morrison. These guys talk about domestic politics, sometimes they talk about international politics, sometimes they pick their moments a bit more. I wouldn't have said that Tony Abbott's sort of out there doing a lot more media, but he has always done a bit more media than the other two and he's never really stepped back, as my understanding is, from involvement in the institutional wing of the party, particularly in New South Wales, his home state where, you know, he's, he's over the years made very clear his views on, you know, I want this person pre selected, not that Person pre selected, he writes endorsement letters, he does those sorts of nuts and bolts things that's never really stopped. This is just an elevation, I guess, from behind the scenes to a more front facing role again.
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B
Okay, well, just to wrap up, James, I guess I want to ask you, given, you know, the insight you may have, you've obviously reported on politics for a very long time. You know, Tony Abbott, does he want to be opposition leader again?
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A
Look, I honestly don't know, Sam, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was some small part of him that wants to be in the federal parliament again. And then once he's in the federal parliament, I don't see how he could resist if the opportunity were to arise. Being opposition leader, he's still a relatively young man. He's still fit, active, you know, firing on all cylinders, so it seems. And he has unfinished business. You know, he had two years, well, just less than two years as Prime Minister. I don't know that he's ever gotten over losing the job in the fashion that he did. You know, the party room push. I don't know if anyone ever does. I don't think Kevin Rudd did either, really. So if the opportunity came up, maybe. I mean, there's always, there's regularly, there's chatter about him returning to Parliament, you know, as recently as the Farah Bay election. I don't think that that starts from nowhere. You know, those rumors, that chatter, those, those discussions, I don't think it, I don't think they exist in a vacuum. They have, they are actually happening. So in the right set of circumstances, Sam. Yeah, I could see him coming back.
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B
And that unfinished business you mentioned, is that just not having the ability to actually serve the full term as prime minister, or is it particular issues that. Do you reckon he feels he's got unfinished business that he wasn't able to accomplish?
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Oh, I think it's both. He definitely has policies that he wanted to implement that weren't, you know, that he just didn't have the time to implement or that, you know, faced a backlash, got held up by the parliament, got junked by his, his successor, you know, Malcolm Turnbull. Yeah, I think so. I think there's specific policies, you know, that would help shape the direction.
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B
Which ones?
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A
Some of the issues that Tony Abbott, I think would be motivated to pursue, worry to return to politics in a federal parliamentary role would include tackling migration or, you know, reducing Australia's immigration rate. He calls it mass migration, much like Angus Taylor does. I think we'd see more culture wars as well, to be frank, you know, something Angus Taylor's already promised is to re legislate the definition of what a man and a, you know, the definition was changed in 2013. Some people are not very comfortable with the definition of a trans woman being a woman or a trans man being a man. I think we'd see stuff like that being pursued. I mean, Taylor's said that I think Abbott would do the same. I think potentially I expect he would try to try and reduce Australia's debt. I think he'd be more careful than he did it careful than the way he did it in 2014 when his budget basically, well, eventually helped cost him his prime ministership because the cuts was so swingeing that he and Joe Hockey
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had proposed and specifically he'd made all those cuts. I think it was what it was health care and it was all kinds
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of really primary stuff, education, abc, sbs,
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B
welfare that they had promised not to cut. Right?
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A
Yep, exactly. Yeah. I don't think he'd break his promises in the same fashion again, but I think he would have surely learned that lesson. But I mean, I don't think the leopard changes its spots. Right, Sam? Yeah.
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B
Thanks, james.
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No worries, sam. Thank you.
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In other news today, the AI jobs apocalypse is yet to fully hit Australia's job market, but new research shows hiring has been weaker in occupations such as clerks and telemarketers. The prime Minister is weighing up a trip to the US to meet President Donald Trump at the Socceroos match against the USA at the World Cup. And Chinese billionaire John Lee no longer owns Australia's most expensive home with a New South Wales court revoking the gold mining businessman's hold on a $95 million property on Sydney Harbour. You can read more@the age.com or smh.comau Today's episode was produced by Josh Towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. And our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow the Morning Edition and leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.