Episode Overview

Title: Littleproud fired the gun, but Ley set up the circumstances: The spectacular Coalition break-up
Podcast: The Morning Edition (The Age and Sydney Morning Herald)
Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Paul Sakal
Guest: Natassia Chrysanthos (Federal Political Correspondent)

This episode takes listeners inside the dramatic and historic break-up of Australia’s federal coalition between the Liberal and National parties. Paul Sakal and Natassia Chrysanthos break down the chain of events that led to the split, the political context, the roles and missteps of key players like David Littleproud and Susan Lee, and what this all means for the future of the opposition and federal politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Coalition Breaks Up (00:03–03:49)

• Announcement of the Split:

  • Nationals leader David Littleproud confirms the split with the Liberals.
  • The century-old alliance is described as a "natural party of government" now undone after conflict over Labor’s hate speech laws.
  • Three National frontbenchers broke ranks, voting against the assumed coalition position, violating shadow cabinet solidarity.

• Key Quote:

  • “When we have three of our senators who had the courage of their conviction and did what our party room decided was the right thing to do for them to lose their jobs, we can't accept that.” — David Littleproud [00:52]

• Resignation Drama:

  • The three rebels (Bridget McKenzie, Ross Caddell, Susan McDonald) offered their resignations to Liberal deputy leader Susan Lee.
  • Littleproud threatened complete National withdrawal if resignations were accepted—Susan Lee accepted, calling the bluff.
  • By Wednesday night, “the remaining MPs in the Coalition front bench, creating a total of 11 people, had all resigned, leaving no Nationals in the coalition frontbench.” — Natassia Chrysanthos [02:54]
  • Littleproud on Thursday: “It’s all over.” [03:49]

2. Political Context and Path to Crisis (03:49–07:08)

• Emergency Sitting & Bondi Massacre:

  • Parliament returned early due to the Bondi massacre, as calls for stronger hate speech laws grew.
  • Pressure was on PM Albanese for decisive action and on the coalition to respond constructively.

• The Nationals’ Objections:

  • Nationals argued the legislation was rushed, not properly scrutinized:
    • “This was a rushed process. We are talking about national security matters with complex legislation... that should be scrutinised and understood before we're forced to vote on it.” — David Littleproud [05:58]
  • Criticism that Labor “made a mockery of the Westminster system.”
  • Irony: Susan Lee had pushed for a return to Parliament and quick action post-Bondi, locking herself into supporting prompt new laws.

• Community Pressure:

  • Special note that “the Jewish community wanted this bill to pass in some way, shape or form.” — Paul Sakal [07:08]

3. Fallout for Littleproud, Lee, and the Parties (07:21–11:45)

• David Littleproud’s Precarious Position:

  • Seen as a lesser-known figure, pressured by right-wing party members like Matt Canavan.
  • Canavan led the charge against the bill, positioning it as a major attack on free speech:
    • “The biggest attack on free speech since Robert Menzies tried to ban the Communist party in the 1950s.” — Paraphrasing Matt Canavan’s position [08:23]
  • Concerns about Littleproud’s leadership: “There are questions in the National Party now about how long Littleproud's leadership can last if his business model is effectively to follow the wishes of his right flank.” — Paul Sakal [08:47]

• The National Party’s Vulnerability:

  • Nationals depend on the Liberal Party for electoral survival, especially in the Senate.

• Susan Lee’s Role and Fallout:

  • Two interpretations: either she mishandled the crisis (setting up the circumstances) or is stuck with the blame as leader.
  • “Even though Littleproud fired the gun, she set up the circumstances... she wears the blame.” — Paul Sakal [09:42]
  • Littleproud’s moves interpreted as pressuring the Liberals to remove Susan Lee as leader.

• Leadership Instability in the Liberals:

  • MPs “on the phone all morning” but “no sense of organisation about when a leadership challenge might occur.”
  • “There's a lot of blind men in a room searching around for where the walls are.” — Liberal MP, as reported by Paul Sakal [10:37]
  • Party is “depressed” and leadership challenge timing is unclear; no action expected before Parliament resumes in February.

4. What Happens Next? Parliamentary Landscape and Historical Significance (11:45–12:54)

• Immediate Parliamentary Impact:

  • Labor holds a commanding majority; the opposition now just the Liberals.
  • The Nationals reduced to a crossbench party, with Senate representation equal to One Nation: “There are four national senators, four one nation senators, like their representation is… equal to one nation now.” — Natassia Chrysanthos [12:11]
  • Describes opposition numbers as “not a strong opposition.” — Natassia Chrysanthos [12:12]

• Future Possibilities:

  • Talk of possible defections to One Nation.
  • The break-up could result in Nationals and Liberals running against each other, risk to Nationals’ seats.

• Historic Nature of the Crisis:

  • “This is arguably the lowest point in the Liberal Party's history since its founding in the mid-'40s, and probably one of the biggest crises on the right flank of politics since Federation.” — Paul Sakal [12:54]
  • Expectation that the next two weeks will see continued uncertainty and drama as Parliament heads toward its next sitting.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “This is not a threat. They are not coming back. The coalition, for now at least, but indefinitely, is over.” — Natassia Chrysanthos paraphrasing David Littleproud [01:42]
• “If you accept these offers of resignation, we will all resign.” — The Nationals’ threat via David Littleproud [02:21]
• “We've just done exactly what we've told you we were going to do. This is on you.” — The Nationals to Susan Lee [03:35]
• “Even though Littleproud fired the gun, she set up the circumstances.” — Paul Sakal [09:42]
• “There's a lot of blind men in a room searching around for where the walls are.” — Liberal MP, via Paul Sakal [10:37]
• “This is arguably the lowest point in the Liberal Party's history since its founding in the mid-40s, and probably one of the biggest crises on the right flank of politics since Federation.” — Paul Sakal [12:54]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:03–03:49: The break-up announcement and resignation drama
• 03:49–07:08: Political context—Bondi attack, hate speech laws, pressure on PM, rationale for the Nationals’ revolt
• 07:21–11:45: Leadership fallout for Littleproud and Lee, strategic miscalculations, party vulnerability
• 11:45–12:54: New parliamentary numbers, historical significance, prospect of more realignments

Conclusion

This episode provides a clear, insider account of a pivotal moment in Australian federal politics. It blends high-stakes political drama, sharp journalistic analysis, and candid reporting on the challenges that now face opposition parties. The tone is urgent yet analytical, with a clear sense that listeners are witnessing a once-in-a-generation event in real time.