The Morning Edition

Episode: Trump won’t shelter us. But does Australia really need nuclear weapons?
Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Samantha Selinger-Morris
Guest: Peter Harcher, International and Political Editor

Main Theme

This episode confronts the unsettling possibility that Australia can no longer confidently rely on the US "nuclear umbrella" for protection. Prompted by recent global instability and Trump administration policies suggesting American allies must defend themselves, Peter Harcher and Samantha Selinger-Morris explore whether Australia must now seriously consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons. The discussion is timely, given a new nuclear arms race, the expiry of US-Russia treaties, and open debates among other traditional US allies about their own nuclear arming.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A New, More Dangerous Nuclear Age

• The world is undergoing a major shift, with heightened nuclear risks driven by Russia’s threats and an unprecedented acceleration in China’s nuclear armament.
• The US, under Trump’s renewed administration, has hinted at scaling back its nuclear guarantees to allies, raising alarm globally.

Quote:

“We are in a dangerous new nuclear age, according to a growing number of world leaders.” — Samantha Selinger-Morris (00:07)

2. Collapse of US Reliance and Growing Global Anxiety

• The US 'nuclear umbrella'—long providing security to allies—is viewed as unreliable now that Trump signals unwillingness to risk US cities for others’ defense.
• Other countries, notably Germany, Poland, Sweden, South Korea, and even Japan, are openly debating developing indigenous nuclear arsenals.

Quote:

“Nobody looks at Trump and thinks this is a man who will protect our country, even if it puts his own country at risk of nuclear attack.” — Peter Harcher (02:49)

3. The End of Arms Control—START Treaty Expiry

• The last nuclear arms limitation treaty between Russia and the US expired recently, removing checks on nuclear deployments.
• Trump administration’s logic: the US shouldn’t be restrained while China refuses to participate in arms controls and is rapidly increasing its arsenal.

Quote:

“Why should we renegotiate a treaty with Russia for the two of us to restrain our nuclear ambitions…when China is refusing to negotiate?” — Peter Harcher (05:13)

4. Trump’s Threat of Nuclear Testing

• Although the US has no technical need for further nuclear tests, Trump’s stance is interpreted as brinksmanship, increasing global tensions and encouraging others.
• Russia and China are increasing their nuclear readiness.

Quote:

“Trump has said, well, why should we have our hands tied when the Chinese aren’t?...This is now giving Russia and the U.S. the ability…to get a little bit more adventurous.” — Peter Harcher (06:07)

5. The Emerging Global Nuclear Proliferation Threat

• The potential for a new arms race is not alarmist; it’s already underway, especially with China’s pace matching the Cold War buildup.

Quote:

“The arms race is already underway...The Americans are helpless to prevent it.” — Peter Harcher (09:22)

6. Direct US Messages to its Allies

• Key US defense official Elbridge Colby (now undersecretary in Trump’s Pentagon) bluntly told Peter Harcher that America wouldn’t risk its own cities to defend an ally.
• Recent US strategy documents omit mention of ‘extended deterrence’ and explicitly state allies must take primary responsibility for their defense.

Quote:

“It’s obviously not going to happen. I don’t think there’s any way that the American president would actually risk losing, like, five American cities because of something that North Korea did…” — Elbridge Colby, via Peter Harcher (10:34)
“...allies are required to take primary responsibility for their own defence.” — Peter Harcher paraphrasing US policy (12:35)

7. Other Allies Step Forward—Is Australia Late?

• Australia debated acquiring nukes in the 1960s; PM John Gorton tried to initiate a program.
• Since then, under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and US protection, Australia has resisted—often leading global anti-nuclear efforts while enjoying US protection.

Quote:

“So we were early, but now...Australia is late to it.” — Peter Harcher (14:11)

8. What Would Trigger an Australian Nuclear Program?

• National Security expert Rory Medcalf suggests if Japan and South Korea build their own nuclear forces, Australia will have no choice but to follow—a “cascade of friendly proliferation.”
• Possessing nuclear weapons isn't just about deterring a nuclear attack. Without them, Australia loses leverage in any conventional military clash with a nuclear-armed foe.

Quote:

“The signal for Australia that we are going to have to move on this will be when the other U.S. allies in the region, Japan and South Korea, develop their own...He calls it the cascade of friendly proliferation.” — Peter Harcher (16:10)

9. The Horrible Dilemma: Living With or Living Without

• Even talking about nuclear weapons is taboo and uncomfortable for politicians and the public, but Peter Harcher insists leaders must face the reality.
• Nuclear arms are both a deterrent and a potential doom; humanity has dodged disaster so far through “Mutually Assured Destruction,” but with more players, the risk and complexity multiply.

Quote:

“We can pull up the Duna and put our heads under the covers and just pretend it’s not happening, or we can have responsible conversations about it and talk about what our options might be.” — Peter Harcher (18:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are no fallout shelters in Seattle. There are no civil defense drills. Right?”
  — Elbridge Colby (via Peter Harcher) (11:06)
• “Are you really prepared to trade New York for Paris?”
  — Charles de Gaulle to JFK (12:02)
• “Australia must accept defeat. If we are engaged in military confrontation with the Chinese, we must accept defeat. ... Unless the Americans step in, roll the dice, see what you think the chances are…”
  — Peter Harcher (17:09)
• “Once we accept, acknowledge that the US is no longer going to do that for us, if it ever really was.”
  — Peter Harcher (18:18)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:07 — Introduction to new nuclear age, Trump document, and the Australian debate
• 02:21 — Why Australia needs to consider nuclear weapons now
• 05:05 — Details on START treaty's expiry & China's nuclear build-up
• 07:11 — The risks and necessity of renewed nuclear testing
• 09:22 — Escalating arms race: Are fears overblown?
• 10:34 — Pentagon official’s (Elbridge Colby) candid stance on US defense guarantees
• 14:11 — Australia’s past and current nuclear conversations
• 16:09 — The “cascade of friendly proliferation” & the logic for Australia
• 18:47 — The enduring risk of nuclear war and the need for honest debate

Tone & Style

Discussion is frank, sobering, and direct — at times unsettling — but aimed at responsible, informed consideration rather than sensationalism. Both host and guest strive to bring taboo or “unthinkable” policy questions into the open, reflecting the gravity of our geopolitical moment.

This summary offers a comprehensive understanding of the episode’s core issues and arguments for new listeners or future reference.