A (7:56)
Extremely good question. And you know, Dalio, actually, I think if you read Dalio's book, he thinks the US or the empire. American Empire. By the way, I say American empire in a. In a. Most people will say it in a negative way, like it's imperialism or a republic, non empire. Both the left and the right will say those things. But there was a good version of American empire, which was certainly a better empire than the Soviets or the Nazis. And the central left and center right version had diplomacy that was the best in the world and signed all these trade deals to everybody. And a military the strongest in the world and generally maintained the peace in the high seas. And blue jeans, rock and roll. There are lots and lots of good things about American empire. Right. So I'm actually somebody who. I write in praise of it. You know, it is at a minimum mixed. So that's. You can't say it's completely negative. There's a lot of positives about it. There's, you know, the Internet itself came out of that, the human Genome Project, blah, blah. We could go on and on. Right. So I want to just calibrate and make sure that that's being understood. I'm definitely not a hater. I am, I am However, a realist, right? And sometimes when you look at a company and you see its balance sheet, you realize this one isn't going to make it. Yeah. And you have to give the hard news to the people in that company that their salary is there. And so. But you know what? Life is going to be different. They're going to have to find a new job and so on and so forth. However, we don't have is. And by the way, you know this overseas as well. Once in a while you'll flip the channel and you'll see some country where you know it's a failed state. Everybody's yelling and shooting each other and you'll say, well, that sucks. And you'll flip the channel because what are you going to do? Are you going to go and parachute over there and say that? Right. And now I increasingly have that feeling when I look at America. Everybody's yelling and shooting each other and so on. So it's getting more and more intense and agitated, but I think it's only a shadow of what's going to be. And the reason is dollar inflation is global taxation. What I mean by that is it's not just Americans who are taxed by inflation. It's the entire world who is is part of the US financial system directly or indirectly. For example, all these countries that buy Treasuries and they save in Treasuries if they hold US stocks. Even until the mid 2010s, Alibaba and other Chinese companies were going public in the U.S. right. If they have Delaware companies and so on and so forth. There's so many ways in which they're dependent upon the US financial system. Right. Which is why treasury is able to sanction all these countries and you know, and so on. But now we're seeing simultaneous run. And I'll get to your point in a second. Assemblies run from US Treasuries into Chinese Treasuries whose yields are at all time lows, by the way. And China is bigger than the G7 combined. So if their yields are low and all the G7's yields are high, that means neutral global investors who are not mandated to buy Treasuries because some people have that in their charters. They have to buy Treasuries. Right. So those who are not forced to buy Treasuries, if you were forced, by the way, you lost your shirt over the last few years, you're completely dead. It's like one of the worst times ever for bonds, maybe the worst time ever. There's some charts that show that. I think Charlie Bialio posts things like this. You can find the exact chart, but it's definitely a bad time, if not the worst time. So they're going out of US Treasuries and they're going into Chinese Treasuries, they're going into gold, and they're going into digital gold. So this whole thing, this financial system is going to zero. And you're seeing that with, for example, seizures of companies. You're seeing that with the government taking equity stakes in companies, you're seeing that with the tariffs, you're seeing that with the wealth taxes on the left, you're seeing that with the remittance taxes on the right, you're seeing that with the property taxes where inflation is boosting property values. The pie is shrinking. And even as the numbers are going up, the actual real value is going down, which is why the political fighting is getting more intense. When that pie collapses, then the last piece of paper holding blue America and red America together was green like a tattered piece of paper, the dollar. Because blue Americans certainly don't vote for red Americans. They don't socialize with them anymore. They're in blue sky versus X. And. And they don't actually even marry them. Only 4% of Democrats are married to Republicans. Right? So that's not actually a country, it's an economic zone to reverse. You know, you've seen the tweet saying it's not an economic zone, it's a country. Right? It's actually an economic zone, not a country. Because these are two tribes like Sunni and Shiite, right? Protestant and Catholic during the thirty Years War that don't get along. So green is the last thing holding them together. When that tears, the whole thing is going to come apart because the economic union comes apart. And the extent to which American living standards are subsidized by dollar inflation, every time the trillion dollars is to give just a very rough calculation, let's say there's 3 billion people out of the 8 billion that are in the American dollar economic union globally, right? If that contracts back to just the 300 million of the U.S. for example, what are the tariffs doing? They're telling other countries, don't send your shoes from Vietnam to America for print dollars. Right? Don't send your valuable goods to America for print dollars because ultimately that's all America is sending back. That's what the trade deficit means. Right? So you're saying dollars are not valuable outside America anymore. Fine. This is something which means the scale of American empire is going to contract just like the Soviet empire contracted. Right. It went from this thing which had military bases in Cameron Bay and in Vietnam and Angola and had bases in Cuba to all the way back, or like informal base in Cuba to all the way back to just Russia. And it lost Ukraine and it lost, you know, the war south pack countries and it lost Central Asian countries. That's what's happening. And what does that mean? Well, first is it means living standards plummet to. And how much do they plummet? If you go from 3 billion people to 300 million people, your printing is spread over 90% fewer people. So your inflation is way up. Right. Number one. Number two is there's starting to be retaliation against the US by the rest of the world. The US passport has just dropped out of the top 10. It's collapsed in terms of number of countries you can go to because places like Brazil, for example, have reciprocity rules. If America makes it hard to get in, they make it hard for Americans to get in. Right. So U.S. identity is actually plummeting along with U.S. currency. U.S. currency has been del. U.S. identity is being devalued, so it becomes hard for Americans to get out. Taxes go up, violence increases, the shootings of CEOs, shootings of Charlie Kirk and so on. And basically, I think the issue is most Americans don't. I mean, they know 1945 and they know 1865. They know 1776, but they don't really understand 1917 or 1991 or 1949 or 1947 that say they don't understand the history of, let's say, Russia or the history of India or the history of China. And those countries have histories where America's in a current state that's more like a, like, state space theory.