Podcast Summary: The Mueller Investigation—What We Know So Far

Podcast: The New Yorker Radio Hour
Host: David Remnick
Guests: Adam Davidson, Susan Glasser, Jeffrey Toobin
Date: February 1, 2019

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the status and significance of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and possible connections with the Trump campaign. Host David Remnick and his guests review what the investigation has uncovered to date, the stakes for President Trump and the country, and the political ramifications as the nation anticipates the release of the Mueller report.

Key Segments and Insights

1. A Four-Phase Timeline of the Mueller Investigation

Guest: Adam Davidson ([01:04]–[09:26])

Adam Davidson breaks down the known narrative of the Mueller investigation into four distinct phases:

Phase One: The Hustle ([01:15]–[02:51])

• Felix Sater, an associate of Trump, flagged a Moscow real estate opportunity (Trump Tower Moscow) in late 2015.
• Despite Trump’s unlikely candidacy at the time, Sater, Michael Cohen, and Trump pursued financing from Russian sources and even considered offering a penthouse to Putin.
• The project ultimately went nowhere, paralleling the early uncertainty of Trump’s political run.

Phase Two: The Scramble ([02:51]–[04:11])

• In early 2016, after Trump's surprising success in Iowa and New Hampshire, Russian hackers and government-linked figures organized efforts to assist Trump.
• Kremlin-connected Americans—Flynn, Manafort, Carter Page—joined Trump’s campaign. Russian hackers breached Democratic emails.
• Chaos and uncertainty: "The Russian government seems to want access to Trump. Trump ... is trying to get access to the Kremlin. And neither side seems to know quite how to develop this relationship." ([03:43] Adam Davidson)

Phase Three: The Meeting ([04:11]–[07:12])

• The infamous Trump Tower meeting on June 9, 2016: Don Jr., Kushner, and Manafort met with Russian nationals to discuss "dirt" on Clinton.
• Post-meeting, contacts became more concentrated and purposeful; Trump publicly called for Russia to find Clinton’s emails ([05:12]).
• Direct communications began between Trump’s team and WikiLeaks, Trump’s public rhetoric defended Putin, and Trump denied Russian interference or business ties.

Phase Four: The Denials ([07:39]–[09:26])

• The aftermath featured repeated denials and outright lies by Trump and senior staff about Russian contacts.
• "It is hard to talk about phase four without sounding partisan, because the clear truth is that Trump himself said things he knew to be untrue. We have a word in English for that. It's called lying." ([07:40] Adam Davidson)
• The firing of FBI Director James Comey led to Mueller’s appointment.
• Despite extensive contacts, "what exactly did Trump know? When did he know it? How involved was he? We don't know yet. And his political future rests on the answers to those questions." ([08:45] Adam Davidson)

2. Russian Aims, Sanctions, and Trump's Receptivity ([09:26]–[11:17])

Guest: Susan Glasser

• Glasser emphasizes Russia’s clear motivation: "They wanted something very specific—sanctions relief."
• She suggests that the Trump Tower meeting likely involved such discussions and contends, "the record is very likely to show that Trump was privately as well as publicly... receptive to the idea that he was receiving some support from the Russians and in exchange was willing to consider lifting these sanctions." ([11:17] Susan Glasser)

3. Will the Public See the Mueller Report? ([11:17]–[13:46])

Host/Guests: Susan Glasser, Jeff Toobin, David Remnick

• Concerns: William Barr (Attorney General nominee) might suppress or summarize the report, making full disclosure uncertain.
• Expectations: "There's really no way to fully cover this up at this point and... the information one way or the other is going to come out." ([11:46] Susan Glasser)
• Toobin is skeptical, insisting, "the Trump administration would use concepts like classified information, executive privilege... to limit the disclosure." ([12:09] Jeff Toobin)
• Congressional efforts and possible Supreme Court battles could play a role in forcing disclosure, echoing Watergate-era legal fights.

4. Implications for 2020: Trump's Political Prospects ([13:46]–[16:41])

Host/Guests: David Remnick, Susan Glasser, Jeff Toobin

• Trump’s approval rating has been "surprisingly stable", rarely deviating from the low-to-mid 40s.
• Quote: "I think the real story is how little [Trump’s poll numbers] have changed, not how much they've changed." ([15:27] Jeff Toobin)
• Discusses potential for a Republican primary challenge and historical examples where incumbents lost due to intra-party splits.

5. Impeachment: Thresholds and Political Reality ([16:41]–[22:31])

Host/Guests: David Remnick, Jeff Toobin, Susan Glasser

What would trigger impeachment?

• Toobin: Only "something that is significantly beyond and different from the known facts... and significantly worse than anything that has even been hypothesized." ([17:23] Jeff Toobin)
• Pelosi and Nadler will only pursue impeachment if 67 Senate votes for removal seem plausible—currently not close.
• "Obstruction of justice, which would send other people to jail, would not be good enough to trigger impeachment." ([18:26] David Remnick)
• Glasser: Emphasizes foreign interference is at the heart of the constitutional impeachment clause ([21:12]), and Trump has publicly admitted firing Comey to halt the investigation.

6. Why This Scandal Differs from Watergate ([22:31]–[25:36])

Host/Guests: David Remnick, Jeff Toobin, Susan Glasser

• Changing party dynamics: "Those moderate Republicans do not exist anymore in the modern Republican Party." ([22:32] Jeff Toobin)
• Media landscape: Conservative media infrastructure will likely support Trump regardless of facts, reducing potential for bipartisan resolution as in 1974.
• History’s lessons: Glasser: "Public opinion was a lagging, not a leading indicator of Nixon's fate," cautioning against neat historical parallels.
• "I think it really, truly does rest on the nature and substance of the Mueller report, its findings, and how compelling and persuasive those are judged to be. But I don't rule out the possibility depending upon what's in that report." ([25:20] Susan Glasser)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "We have a word in English for that. It's called lying." — Adam Davidson, on Trump and his team's statements ([07:40])
• "There's really no way to fully cover this up at this point and... the information one way or the other is going to come out." — Susan Glasser ([11:46])
• "I think the real story is how little [Trump’s poll numbers] have changed, not how much they've changed." — Jeff Toobin ([15:27])
• "Obstruction of justice, which would send other people to jail, would not be good enough to trigger impeachment." — David Remnick ([18:26])
• "The impeachment clause of the Constitution... was designed by the founders with the notion of foreign interference in our political and government process." — Susan Glasser ([21:12])
• "Those moderate Republicans do not exist anymore in the modern Republican Party." — Jeff Toobin ([22:32])
• "I think it really, truly does rest on the nature and substance of the Mueller report... I don't rule out the possibility depending upon what's in that report." — Susan Glasser ([25:20])

Episode Tone

The discussion is direct, at times wryly skeptical, and deeply informed—meshing legal analysis, historical context, and political realism. The tone reflects both the weight of the investigation and the uncertainty pervading Washington.

Conclusion

The episode provides a concise yet thorough review of the tangled Russia-Trump saga, underlining known facts, unresolved questions, and the extraordinary political context. The panel consensus: the ultimate fallout—political or legal—will hinge less on what’s already emerged and more on what, if anything, new is revealed in the Mueller report and how the public and political actors react. The episode ends with anticipation: "we'll be back with more, I'm sure, in weeks to come." ([25:36] David Remnick)