Special Edition: 4 Years of War: How Will Russia's Invasion End?

Summary

---

The NewsWorthy – Special Edition: 4 Years of War: How Will Russia’s Invasion End?

Date: February 21, 2026
Host: Erica Mandy
Guest: Dr. Christina Hook, expert on Ukrainian-Russian relations, conflict management professor at Kennesaw State University

---

Overview

In this special edition episode, Erica Mandy sits down with Dr. Christina Hook to reflect on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as it approaches its fourth anniversary (and 12th year since the initial 2014 crisis). They explore the prospects—and difficulties—of a peace deal, the enduring and evolving stakes involved, how external pressures affect Putin's calculus, and what a lasting resolution might require. The conversation also highlights shifts in U.S. and European support, the complexities of territorial concessions, and why continued American engagement truly matters.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Stakes of the Current Peace Talks

• Stakes Unchanged Since 2022

  • Dr. Hook recalls a poster from the early days of the invasion:

    “If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine. If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over.”
    [01:20, Dr. Christina Hook]

• Ukraine’s Defensive Imperative

  • Ukraine “unable to stop its defensive resistance and Russia unwilling to stop its invasion.”
    [01:47, Dr. Christina Hook]

The Likelihood & Nature of a Peace Deal

• Is a Deal Likely Soon?

  • Even as global leaders like President Trump express hope for a fast deal, Dr. Hook emphasizes:

    “It’s less about the moment the war ends, it’s about how the war ends.”
    [02:04, Dr. Christina Hook]

• Ukrainian Perspective

  • For Ukrainians: “What evidence do we have that Vladimir Putin is signaling for peace? … I just don’t see a lot.”
    [02:16, Dr. Christina Hook]
  • External pressure may be necessary: “Many people are encouraging a more forceful response by President Trump ... by the European Union.”
    [02:34, Dr. Christina Hook]

Economic Pressure on Russia

• Economic Weakness as a Pressure Point

  • Russia’s economy small globally—“about 1.5% to 2% of the world’s global economy”—but buoyed by massive oil reserves.
  • “My neighbor, the state of Alabama... averages more patents ... than the entire country of Russia.”
    [03:23, Dr. Christina Hook]

• Oil as Leverage

  • Oil profits serve Russia's oligarchs more than its people. Targeting “the shadow fleet” of unofficial oil tankers could be more effective than military losses.
  • Russian economists now warn their economy “has entered something they call the death zone. It is surviving by consuming its future.”
    [04:37, Dr. Christina Hook]

• Narrative Shift

  • “Time is not working on Russia’s side.”
    [04:57, Dr. Christina Hook]

Levers to Bring Russia to the Table

• Consequences & Diplomacy

  • “When you’re dealing with bullies... what you have to do is show them that there could be consequences that they care about.”
    [05:14, Dr. Christina Hook]
  • Money and oligarch security are Putin’s main concerns.
  • Strong condemnation from the U.S. is important: “Strong language does not scare them away. It’s actually something that garners their respect.”
    [05:46, Dr. Christina Hook]

• Ukraine’s Trust in U.S. Security Guarantees

  • There’s lingering mistrust stemming from the 1990s, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for security guarantees that were later violated.
  • “It’s the US security guarantees that are a major incentive for Ukraine to lay down their weapons.… Can the people of Ukraine trust the nation of the United States?”
    [06:38, Dr. Christina Hook]

Security Guarantees & Ukrainian Democracy

• U.S. Offer: 15 Years of Security Guarantees
  • Many Ukrainians find this offer inadequate considering Russia’s continued aggression since 2014.
  • Ukraine wants a referendum, guaranteed by a ceasefire, to let people choose new leaders and weigh in on potential peace terms.
  • Zelensky’s tongue-in-cheek suggestion at the Munich Conference:

    “Ukraine was also willing to guarantee a ceasefire so that Russians could vote for their president. Just sort of reminding that only one side here has a dictator.”
    [08:15, Dr. Christina Hook]

Drop in U.S. Funding and Shifting Leverage

• 99% Drop in U.S. Support

  • “Over the first year of the Trump administration… there has been a 99% drop in US support to Ukraine across military, humanitarian and legal support.”
    [11:34, Dr. Christina Hook]
  • The European Union has become Ukraine’s “primary source of funding,” indirectly weakening U.S. leverage.

• Humanitarian Atrocities Continue

  • Notable milestone: over 2,000 kidnapped Ukrainian children rescued from Russia; an estimated 1.6 million remain under Russian control.
    [12:18, Dr. Christina Hook]

Complexity of Territorial Concessions

• Strategic Importance of the Donbas
  • “It can sound really easy to give up something that sounds like a sliver of land. But ... Russia is trying to achieve through diplomacy what they can’t militarily, and to take Ukraine’s fortress belt, that actually is better analysis.”
    [13:30, Dr. Christina Hook]

Ongoing Need for U.S. Attention & Support

• Why This War Matters to Americans
  • “This continues to be one of the few black and white wars that I look at.”
    [16:39, Dr. Christina Hook]
  • Ukraine is fighting for “their homes and their personal freedoms… that is so resonant with US values.”
  • Public U.S. support remains strong; Dr. Hook argues policy should match this bipartisan consensus.

Europe’s Role in Negotiations

• Behind-the-Scenes Influence
  • Europe now has “earned their seat at the table” through massive support.
  • “Ukraine is central to Europe’s security architecture, and Europe is central to the US economy.”
    [15:08, Dr. Christina Hook]
  • EU officials are involved in discussions—often less publicly—but increasingly recognized as indispensable.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine. If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [01:22]

• “It’s less about the moment the war ends, it’s about how the war ends.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [02:04]

• “Russia’s economy has entered something they call the death zone. It is surviving by consuming its future.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [04:37]

• “Strong language does not scare them away. It’s actually something that garners their respect.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [05:46]

• “Ukraine wants a referendum… President Zelensky… said Ukraine was also willing to guarantee a ceasefire so that Russians could vote for their president. Just sort of reminding that only one side here has a dictator.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [08:18]

• “Over the first year of the Trump administration… there has been a 99% drop in US support to Ukraine…”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [11:34]

• “This is a case where I think the public has it exactly right. And I’d love to see us pursue policy that is in line with this bipartisan.”
  — Dr. Christina Hook, [17:23]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:11-01:53] — Stakes of peace talks and preview of negotiation environment
• [01:59-02:53] — Prospects for a peace deal and Putin’s motivations
• [03:13-05:01] — Russian economy, oil, and pressure points
• [05:10-07:20] — U.S. diplomacy, trust gaps, and consequence management
• [07:25-08:34] — Security guarantees & democracy in Ukraine
• [11:19-12:55] — U.S. funding reduction and effect on negotiations
• [13:03-14:05] — Territorial concessions and their implications
• [14:58-16:32] — Europe’s financial and security role
• [16:37-17:33] — Why Americans should care; closing insights

---

Final Thoughts

Dr. Christina Hook frames Ukraine’s still-vital defensive struggle not just as a regional conflict but as a test of democratic resolve and Western commitments. As military and financial support shifts from the U.S. to Europe, the morality and strategy behind potential peace remains deeply complicated. All sides—including listeners—are urged to appreciate both the immediacy and the enduring impact of this war, understanding that its outcome matters to the world far beyond Ukraine’s borders.

---

Transcript

[A]

Today is Saturday, February 21st. In a few days, Russia's full scale attack on Ukraine will enter its fourth year and really its 12th year since Russia's first invasion in 2014. So what are the stakes right now? Is a peace deal actually possible? And what would a just and lasting end to this war really look like? Today we're joined by Dr. Christina Hook, an expert on Ukrainian Russian relations, a former Fulbright scholar to Ukraine and a conflict management professor at Kennesaw State University. She's conducted fieldwork across Ukraine for nearly a decade and has a book coming out this fall about the Russia Ukraine war. Today, she helps us break down what's happening behind the scenes of these peace talks. What pressure points actually matter for Vladimir Putin and why many Ukrainians say when the war ends is actually not their biggest concern. Welcome to the NEWSWORTHY Special EDITION Saturday when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes where we provide all the day's news in less than 15 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy. It's now time for today's special edition Saturday. Christina Hook, thank you so much for joining us here on the newsworthy.

[B]

It's my pleasure.

[A]

Talks between Russia and Ukraine resumed this week. What are the stakes right now, in your opinion? And what's standing out to you the most about these talks so far?

[B]

I'm thinking about a poster that I saw four years ago and really the stakes haven't changed. So that poster said if Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine. If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over. And with everything we're seeing with Russia's attacks against the people of Ukraine targeting not just the Ukrainian military, but targeting the people and the viability of the Ukrainian state, we're really still in this pattern of Ukraine unable to stop its defensive resistance and Russia unwilling to stop its invasion of Ukraine.

[A]

President Trump said he hopes a deal is reached fast. Do you actually think a deal is likely anytime soon?

[B]

Well, I applaud anyone that is trying to bring an end to this bloodshed. But when you ask Ukrainians, which I do every day, they say it's less about the moment the war ends, it's about how the war ends. And so what I'm tracking really closely is what evidence do we have that Vladimir Putin is signaling for peace. And on that end, I just don't see a lot. And that's an area where I think many people are encouraging a more forceful response by President Trump, by members of Congress, by the European Union, and by many, to put that pressure on Vladimir Putin. He's a dictator, he's very violent, and he's very stubborn. And so you just don't see a lot of willingness on his part to back down, even after four years of catastrophic losses for his army.

[A]

There are reports that Russia may be forced to come to the table because of the impact the war is having on its finances, as well as other countries potentially not supporting it through oil. Is that true? And might that impact Putin's demands in a potential deal? Could that change anything moving forward?

[B]

That's a great question. So when we think about the Russian economy, we can think about it in a couple ways. So, first of all, globally, the Russian economy is not huge. Sometimes people are surprised when I mention to them that the Russian economy is about 1.5% to 2% of the world's global economy. It's also not a country that's well known for innovation. So I can just say that my neighbor, the state of Alabama in the United States, averages more patents for new inventions every year than the entire country of Russia. So, as a country, it's not a big economy, but it has massive oil reserves. And those oil reserves are really important, not necessarily to the Russian people who don't see that benefit, but to dictators and oligarchs like Putin, like his inner circle. So in that sense, the targeting of what's called the shadow fleet, these unofficial tankers that transport Russia's oil, is really important to Vladimir Putin. And it's sad to say, but I actually think that that's a tougher pressure point for him than all of this catastrophic loss of lives. On the Russian military side, there have been Russian economists, including one who used to work for the bank of Russia, who are out with new analyses just this week, and they're saying that Russia's economy has entered something that they call the death zone. So it is surviving by consuming its future. And that means that Russia can continue to wage war, but every moment that they're doing so, it is using up military spending, and it's not building that economy that would make Russia a stable, viable state in the future. And so the long term future is very much at stake. Stake. And we're beginning to see a narrative shift that time is not working on Russia's side.

[A]

And so the question is, will that ultimately bring Putin to the table in a more realistic way? And are there any other levers to pull to speed that up even faster?

[B]

There's this tendency to Say, does it matter that, you know, the US Used to come out and issue condemnations of Russia's targeting of the Ukrainian people? I say it does, because when you're dealing with bullies, with thugs, with dictators, what you have to do is to show them that there could consequences that they care about. And consequences that they care about are money, Putin's ability to make the people around him wealthy so that he feels secure in his dictatorship. And it also makes them nervous when they have any indication that they might face future consequences. So I actually would like to hear much more forceful condemnation by the US Side alongside their attempts to bring them together. What's really interesting is when you're dealing with bullies like Russia, strong language does not scare them away. It's actually something that garners their respect. And I think that that's been something that I'd like to see more of. I think that it's also important that the US Administration needs to consider how much trust the people of Ukraine must place in their hands. And it's not just about Ukraine's president. I always say, you know, if you've convinced Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that', Great, now you've got millions of Ukrainians that you also have to convince because they're a democracy, they're different than Russia. The US has always been very popular in Ukraine. I've lived in Ukraine for many years. I felt that firsthand. But we have some credibility gaps that date back to the 1990s, where we, along with Russia and along with the United Kingdom, told Ukraine to give up the third largest nuclear arsenal and that we would guarantee their territorial integrity and national sovereignty. So that's, again, important now because it's the US Security guarantees that are a major incentive for Ukraine to lay down their weapons. It's about, can the people of Ukraine trust the nation of the United States? And that's where I think even some of this language of acknowledging what those people are going through would benefit the goals that the US Administration is trying to achieve.

[A]

Yeah. Where does that stand? At last check in terms of security guarantees?

[B]

So what we know from public reporting is it seems that the US has offered something around 15 years of security guarantees. And that, frankly, has not been seen as quite the incentive for many Ukrainians that I speak with, because they remind that Russia first invaded in 2014. So in that logic, we are now in 12 years of Russia's invasion. But at some point, there would need to be this kind of acceptance on the part of the people of Ukraine, and that would involve, I think, some type of referendum. So one of the things that Ukraine has asked is to guarantee a two month ceasefire from Russia so that their people can vote for new leaders and that they can also vote on something like this referendum. Now there was a comment from President Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference just recently, and he said that he's very happy to have these elections, but he also said, sort of tongue in cheek, that Ukraine was also willing to guarantee a ceasefire so that Russians could vote for their president. Just sort of reminding that only one side here has a dictator.

[A]

Still ahead, a sharp drop in US funding for Ukraine and how it changes America's leverage in these talks. Plus why talk of giving up land is more complicated than it might sound, what role Europe really has behind the scenes, and why this war still matters to Americans years into it. That and more coming up. But first, a quick break for our sponsors. The Newsworthy is brought to you by Home Chef. We recently celebrated my husband's birthday and I loved knowing I had all the ingredients in the fridge ready to go to make a delicious meal that night. Thanks to Home Chef. We all loved what they call the idiot proof crispy peanut chicken sandwich with pickled cucumber ribbons and Sriracha mayo and a side of sweet potato fries. Not only did it feel like a restaurant style meal right at home, but also I was pretty proud of myself to be able to make it. Even my 4 year old ate this and loved it. Plus sometimes I want to make food from scratch, but other times I just need something I can stick in the oven and be done. Home Chef has both options and it's not just me, other people really love it. Home Chef is rated number one by users of other meal kits for quality, convenience, value, taste and recipe ease. For a limited time, Home Chef is offering my listeners 50% off and free shipping for your first box. Plus free dessert for life. Go to homechef.comnewsworthy that's homechef.comnewsworthy for 50% off your first box and free dessert for life. Homechef.comnewsworthy. you must be an active subscriber to receive the free dessert. The Newsworthy is also brought to you by Oneskin. Some of you already know I turned 40 last year so I wanna make sure I have a skincare routine that is science backed and helps my skin feel and look great now and in the long term. And yet I'm just not someone who is going to do a 10 step process. I don't have the time or desire. That's why I love One Skin for my face, my eyes, lips and more. It's simple but effective and even certified safe for sensitive skin. Their products are free from over 1500 harsh or irritating ingredients. They're dermatologists tested and have been awarded the National Eczema Association Seal of Acceptance by the nea, delivering powerful results without the harsh side effects. I also love that it was founded by an all woman team of longevity Scientists with PhDs in stem cell biology, skin regeneration and tissue engineering. Born from a decade of longevity research, OneSkin's OS1 peptide is proven to target the visible signs of aging, helping you unlock your healthiest skin now and as you age and for a limited time you can try OneSkin with 15% off using the code Newsworthy and at Oneskin co newsworthy, that's 15% off OneSkin Co with the code Newsworthy. After your purchase they'll ask you where you heard about them. So please support our show and tell them we sent you. Now back to my conversation with Christina

[B]

Hook

[A]

and how does funding play into this? Because we've seen funding for Ukraine reduced significantly here in the US can you speak to that funding drop and its impact?

[B]

So over the first year of the Trump administration, analysts who track this in Germany have said that there has been a 99% drop in US support to Ukraine across military, humanitarian and legal support. So the US Actually gives, I think it's fair to say, no support to Ukraine. Now they do allow US Weapons to be purchased by other countries, such as European Union countries. Right now the European Union is Ukraine's primary source of funding. What that has done is it has actually reduced the US Ability to pressure Ukraine. Now, support for Ukraine among people remains quite high. It's one of the bipartisan issues of our day, which I'm so pleased about because I like to think that that reflects on American values of freedom and just sort of basic safety for people to live in their own home. I will just mention here a very significant milestone where President zelensky has announced 2,000 kidnapped Ukrainian children being rescued from Russia. Just in Russia occupied Ukraine. We estimate that they have 1.6 million Ukrainian children under the Russian control. And so we also haven't seen a lot of messaging from the US Side about what will happen to those people. So millions of Ukrainians under occupation and then the thousands of Ukrainian children that have also been abducted and that are held by Russian forces, Russian bureaucrats and

[A]

the Russian system, you know, how does that change over the four years? Because when something first starts there's lots of coverage of it, but then that does fade.

[B]

It does. I do think that we are missing some of that in U.S. coverage. I think that it's perfectly accurate to call this a war, but it's also perfectly accurate to call this an invasion. I think it's important to continue placing blame where it belongs, which is never on the victims and always on the aggressor. It's also, I think, really important to know the geography and the topography of Ukraine. So, for example, sometimes I hear these things about negotiations, pieces of Ukrainian land, or we talk about eastern Ukraine. It's a region called the Donbas. Well, it's called the fortress built in Ukraine because it's the most heavily fortified part of Ukraine. So, for example, it can sound really easy to give up something that sounds like a sliver of land. But when we talk about it a bit more accurately, and we say Russia is trying to achieve through diplomacy what they can't militarily, and to take Ukraine's fortress built, that actually is better analysis. And it also helps us understand why Ukrainian defenders are reluctant to withdraw from those areas.

[A]

Yeah, and that's important because even President Trump has said at times that Ukraine will have to give up some sort of land. But you're making the point that it's not so simple.

[B]

Unfortunately, it's not. We've seen Putin repeat violence throughout his dictatorship. There were multiple wars in Chechnya, the invasion of Georgia, terrible civilian targeting in Syria, many atrocities in many different African countries that were linked to the Russian military. And now, of course, a 12 year war with Ukraine without a lot of sign that he suddenly had a change of heart. So this is about making sure that when this does stop, it never happens again.

[A]

And I do want to circle back to your point that the EU is now the biggest supporter of Ukraine financially. But I'm not hearing a lot about them being involved in the peace talks like the US So where does that stand and how might that change?

[B]

This is a great question. This is the exact question that many analysts are asking. Ukraine is central to Europe's security architecture and Europe is central to the US economy. So we all kind of depends on each other, and that's why we've had such stable transatlantic relationships for such a long time. Most Ukrainians push back on just a one dimensional narrative that they're a nation of victims. They also say that we're a nation of innovators and that's why they're still in the fight. It's this innovative use of drone technology and other kinds of technology. And we do need that in NATO countries. They need Ukraine for their security architecture. They need this battle hardened military. And the US needs Europe for our economy. We are heavily integrated with European markets. So as Europe integrates Ukraine and its security, that enables the US to continue to have a stable integration with European markets.

[A]

And just back to the question of negotiations. I mean, so even if it's not as public, I imagine the EU is playing a role in the negotiations.

[B]

There is reporting that, for example, that there are French, uk, German representatives there to speak with the parties, not to engage officially with the Russian side, but to speak with Ukrainian officials, potentially U.S. officials as well. And of course, that is part of what I think that they have, quote, earned their seat at the table through this support and through increasingly recognizing how central Ukraine and its military is for their security too.

[A]

Do you have a final thought on, you know, at the end of the day, the pitch for Americans to really care about this?

[B]

What I would say is that this continues to be one of the few black and white wars that I look at. I look at wars all around the world and this is a situation where, to their enormous credit, Ukraine continues to fight very, very hard against the Russian military. But even with as much time as I have spent in Ukraine and speaking with Ukrainians, there has not been targeting of the Russian people. And I think that that says something about who Ukraine is, what they're defending, which is themselves, their homes and their personal freedoms. And again, I think that that is so resonant with US values. So I think that that's why we are seeing this enduring public support in the US For Ukraine. And this is a case where I think the public has it exactly right. And I'd love to see us pursue policy that is in line with this bipartisan.

[A]

Thank you so much to our guest, Christina Hoek. Be on the lookout for her book coming in November about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, told through interviews across Ukraine. As always, we'll be back during the week with any major updates on this conflict and all the other news you need to know. We provide daily news roundups each Monday through Friday with a wide variety of stories in less than 15 minutes. So we'll be back on Monday. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.