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- [00:01]
A
Today is Saturday, March 14th. We're now two weeks into the war with Iran. We've seen a barrage of airstrikes, retaliation across the region and questions about what happens next. So we're getting two perspectives in this episode, one expert analysis and one personal experience. Later, you'll hear from Oliver Sims iv. He's an American content creator who found himself stranded in Qatar for more than a week. He describes the moment his flight turned around right as the region's airspace shut down. The sound of war overhead, the confusion, the fear and what it was like trying to get home. But first, we'll start with an expert on the region. Dr. Kamran Bakari is a senior director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, as well as a senior fellow at the Middle East Policy Council and a strategic forecaster. He helps to break down the strategic calculations behind this war, including how the US And Israel may be thinking differently, what Iran's options are and and why the next few weeks could be critical.
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B
Welcome.
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A
Welcome to the Newsworthy Special edition Saturday when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes where we provide all the day's news in 10 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy. It's now time for today's special edition Saturday. Kamran, thank you so much for joining us here on the newsworthy.
- [01:23]
C
My pleasure. Thanks for having me.
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A
So what do you think the key motivations or end goals are from both the US And Israel here? Especially because there's been a lot of talk how there's conflicting or at least different reasons for this war that we've heard from various officials.
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C
Look, you know, Israel and the United States, they're very close allies. They have a lot of convergence when it comes to Iran. But they're two separate countries and they have their own perspectives, which is natural from the US Point of view. It should not have nuclear weapons. The United States also doesn't want Iran to have offensive ballistic missile capability because it is a revisionist state. It is a radical state trying to alter the security architecture of the Middle east and its broader strategic environment. So that's another thing. Switch over to what the Israeli perspective is. Look, Israel is a small country and it lives in the region. It is not a superpower. This is the most important thing for them. This is the only state actor that's been challenging them and it's been backing every single proxy that has attacked Israel. So their view is obviously going to be Different. They would be much more comfortable in seeing a regime, a complete regime change, if you will. But they're dependent on the United States to make that happen, because the United States is the senior partner from the US Point of view. It ideally does not want to see the whole edifice fall because you want to have somebody to do a negotiated settlement with once the dust settles. But we'll see. I mean, it's tricky because once the shooting starts, you don't know where it ends up.
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A
And why do you think now was the time, from the US Perspective, or at least President Trump's perspective?
- [03:05]
C
A variety of reasons. I think that the president had tried the route of diplomacy. It didn't work out. And so at the end of the day, you have a clock ticking. The last thing any president has ever wanted is to be woken up in the middle of the night to say, the Iranians have done a nuclear test. So that's a fear that has been growing. The hope was that, hey, if we'll normalize relationships with. Relationship with you, and you're a country that needs a lot of investments, you want to remove sanctions, let's do a deal. It wasn't happening. And so you have frustration over a diplomatic process. And then, of course, President Trump wants to be the only president of the United States that has finally solved the problem of Iran. This is his ambition. As I understand it, Iran has been a thorn in the side of the United States since its founding, since the founding of this regime in 1979. And it has basically been a headache for many administrations, going all the way back to Jimmy Carter and. And so he wanted that place in history. So there are all sorts of political calculations. Of course, this is a year of midterms. That's also a factor shaping this. It's a risky gamble. But, yes, these are all the various drivers that shaped the current moment.
- [04:21]
A
President Trump had said previous strikes on Iran had destroyed the nuclear capabilities. Then, more recently, we heard Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that Iran's nuclear capabilities were imminent. Do you have a sense of what the reality is in terms of how soon were they able to have nuclear weapons?
- [04:42]
C
Yeah. So look, when the president said he destroyed or obliterated, to use his specific phraseology, he meant the sites, he didn't mean the program as a whole. Everybody knows that just by dropping, you know, bunker busters on three sites, you do not eliminate a program. And that was designed to put pressure and notice that it was the President Trump who called for a ceasefire after that, on the 12th day last June and so the hope was, okay, you weren't willing to negotiate before, you probably are more motivated to do so now. But then in December, protests broke out that essentially altered the path of negotiations. But nonetheless, you can never be sure that the nuclear program has been neutralized. Now, if a, an actor is enriching uranium at 60% and it's saying that we've done it, openly admitting that we've done it and telegraphing it, then you have to assume, worst case scenario, that, you know, they could cross that nuclear Rubicon. Can you be sure when it's going to happen? No. But do you wait till the last moment?
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B
No.
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A
We're seeing now that Iran is not going down without a fight. They're making sure the rest of the region feels the pain as well. With attacks across the Middle east, what do you make of the strategy for them to attack other countries and what's the impact of that?
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C
Ultimately, their logic is increase the cost of this war for the United States, and they're in a race against time to try to inflict as much pain as possible. This would lead to a jacking of oil prices. Insurance companies are going to be jittery in underwriting ships carrying oil and gas. So you, you ratchet up that. That's their logic. The United States logic is, well, let's degrade this capability before the prices go too high. So we're in that phase right now.
- [06:38]
A
President Trump himself has acknowledged that there might be some sort of retaliatory attacks on the US Here at home, and that people in America could die. So what could that look like here in the US Is that referring to sleeper cells and terrorist attacks?
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C
Yes. I mean, that's always the fear. A government, a regime that has spent way more money cultivating proxies of all types to the point where its own population has suffered because they spend less money on their domestic political, economic obligations. So you have to assume they have sleeper cells. To what degree we don't fully know. I think the United States intelligence community and United States law enforcement, particularly the FBI, is right now working overtime to figure out who are these people and where are they so that we can interdict. So, yes, there's always a chance of terrorist attacks taking place inside the continental United States and of course, targeting American diplomatic missions in third countries.
- [07:39]
A
What do you think Americans should know about how the people of Iran, the citizens in Iran, are generally feeling about what's happening?
- [07:48]
C
I think that the view within Iran is far more nuanced than what is being reported in the media. So, yes, There are a great many Iranians, I would comfortably say a majority of them, who are sick and tired of this regime and would like it to go now. The question is how many of them are at a point where they're willing to even say, okay, let the United States and Israel do it for us. There are others who look at this and say, well, we hate the regime, but we don't want war. Some people are fearful of anarchy. Like, if this government falls and then all hell breaks loose, then you sort of drop altitude from a national level to regional level. There are lots of significant minorities in this country. So the largest, single largest ethnic group, ethnic minority is the Azeris. They're about a quarter of the population of 93 million people and mostly in the northwest. The Kurds are more separatists that are probably the most potent armed group, insurrectionist group. You have Arabs in the southwest. You have Baloch, who are not just ethnically non Persian, but they're also Sunni Muslims, as opposed to Shia Muslims. You have Turkmens in the northeast. So this is a country you can't take as a monolith. So how they're feeling will be determined by their sort of viewfinder and where they are and what their gripes are, what their needs are, what their aspirations are. I think it's safe to say that the common denominator is that because of this air campaign, are a lot of innocent people going to die. And so that is something there. But then there's also the hope and the expectation that, you know, when you make it to the other side, this regime will not be there, at least not in its current form. Americans should know that. It's a very diverse country.
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B
Yeah.
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A
And do you expect enough people to eventually, once the fighting is over, to rise up, as President Trump has encouraged Iranians to do? And even if they do, will it
- [09:56]
C
work in terms of rising up? One of the things that has always happened, you know, and this is sort of not just something with Iran, this is, in general, mass uprisings do not topple regimes.
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A
We saw with the Arab Spring.
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C
Exactly. Mass uprisings are able to topple regimes because of an intervening variable, and that is that elements, particularly from those of. From the security establishment of the incumbent regiment, defect. They basically say, look, we're not going to open fire on our protest on protesters. We're not going to save this regime, which is what happened to Iran in 1979, that brought this regime to power.
- [10:36]
B
So.
- [10:37]
C
So I think that rising up, while it has its importance and it's a bit Complicated, you know, and then the President acknowledged that, look, you know, bombs are falling, so I want people to be safe, but there will come a time when they should come out. I don't think he's under any illusion that an uprising will bring this regime down. I think what he's looking to do is sort of kind of like the baseline Venezuela model. He'd like for the irreconcilables to be removed, eliminated, weakened, to where elements that are willing to do a deal come forth or have the power, have the space to be able to come and negotiate with the United States in a credible way.
- [11:15]
A
I do want to ask about the reports coming out that it was likely the US that accidentally bombed a girl's school in Iran. What do you think Americans need to know about that incident and just how the US Is operating at this point?
- [11:30]
C
First of all, that was horrible that what happened and it should not have happened. But unfortunately, we live in a world of imperfect intelligence. Mistakes are made by humans and machines, by calculations. And so these are things that do happen when we have an outbreak of war, but it should not have happened. We need the American public and the American government should work towards a situation where we improve our operational M.O. to where we can minimize, continue to minimize. We've done that over the years. We don't target, as matter of policy and practice, not theoretical, the United States military does not target civilians. And that's been a bedrock principle. But do civilians get killed accidentally? Yes, they do. And we should come out and we should admit it. And there's a need to send a message to the other side that, look, even in war there are rules and when mistakes happen, we take responsibility for it.
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A
How would you describe both the potential and plausible worst case scenario of this war and a plausible best case scenario?
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C
The worst case scenario, case scenario is the this fighting leads to a collapse of this regime, which this regime is already very fragile, and if the force becomes too much for them, they could crack. And then you have again, there is no center and you have anarchy in the country. And what are the implications for all the various neighboring countries that border Iran? So that's the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is that pragmatic elements are able to come together. Some pragmatic commanders within the Revolutionary Guards, plus the institution of the regular armed forces, pragmatic clerical elements and politicians, they all form a coalition and say, okay, you know what, Enough is enough, let's do a deal, let's come back to the table and let's put this behind us. Because There's a lot of damage that's been done, and we need to rebuild this country, and we don't want it to go. We don't want to go down the path of anarchy. So that could still happen. But because we're in such a dynamic and fluid environment, it's difficult to say which one of those scenarios are more likely.
- [13:58]
A
President Trump has said that he doesn't want to get the US Involved in forever war. So do you have an expected timeline or how long do you think this thing will last?
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C
It's difficult to say, but I don't think he has months. I think he has weeks, because there's a political clock ticking. There's the midterms coming up. He didn't go into this air campaign to undermine his position. In fact, it was the opposite. He wanted to strengthen his position and that of his party in the upcoming elections. And then, of course, there's the more immediate thing, which is the economic second and third order derivative effects of the conflict on the price of oil. On this is the first time that countries like Kuwait and Bahrain and Saudi and uae, Qatar and even Oman, which is a close ally of the Iranians, have very close relations. They're the sort of conduit through which the Americans and the Iranians talk. Even they've been hit. So with their pain going up, they're obviously reaching back to the White House and saying, hey, how long is this gonna go on? We can only take so much. So these are pressure points that are also building on the president. So I doubt that he has. This is gonna be months long. If I had to put sort of like a timeline, I'd say we're looking at several weeks to a maximum a month.
- [15:23]
A
Still ahead, you'll hear from Oliver Sims iv, an American who was mid journey home when the war began. And suddenly he found himself stranded in Qatar for more than a week. He describes the moment his plane turned around, being evacuated from the airport and waking up to the sound of missile defense systems overhead. That's coming up. But first, a quick break for our sponsors. Think about this. If you start learning a new language now, by the time summer rolls around, you'll already feel more confident speaking and understanding that new language. Now is the perfect time to start, whether you have a trip coming up or you simply want to have that amazing new skill. I'm always so impressed when someone knows another language, and I realize that actually it can be me, especially with the right method. Rosetta Stone has been a trusted leader in language learning for over 30 years. They have a method that helps you naturally absorb your new language. You learn by connecting words, visuals and meaning in context, the way language is meant to be learned. They even have something called True Accent that gives you real time feedback on pronunciation, like having a personal coach. How cool is that? And of course, we're all so busy so we need something flexible. Thankfully, Rosetta Stone allows you to access lessons from your desktop or mobile app whether you have five minutes or an hour. Ready to start learning a new language this spring? Visit rosettastone.com newsworthy to explore Rosetta Stone and choose the language that's right for you. Go to Rosetta Stone.com Newsworthy and begin your language learning journey now. Wild Grain is the first bake from Frozen subscription box for sourdough breads, artisanal pastries and fresh pastas. And get this, all items conveniently bake in 25 minutes or less with no thawing or planning ahead required. So it's very convenient. And I've literally loved, not just liked, but loved every single thing that we've tried from Wild Grain. You've probably heard me talk about their sourdough bread that will take soup night up about 10 notches, but have I told you yet about their giant chocolate chunk cookies for dessert? We can just keep these in the freezer until we're in the mood for a special dessert and then we easily have just out of the oven, crispy on the edges, gooey on the inside, cookies that are delicious. And unlike many store bought options, Wild Grain uses simple ingredients you can pronounce. Imagine having fresh bakery quality bread, pastries and pasta at home without any trips to the store. And don't just take my word for it. They have over 40,000 5 star reviews and have been voted the best food subscription box by USA Today for three years in a row. For a limited time, Wild Grain is offering our listeners $30 off your first box plus free croissants for Life, which are also delicious when you go to wildgrain.comnewsworthy to start your subscription today. That's $30 off your first box and free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain.comnewsworthy or you can use the promo code Newsworthy at checkout. Now to my conversation with Oliver Sims. Oliver, thank you so much for joining us here on the Newsworthy.
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B
Thank you so much for having me.
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A
Well, I first have to say welcome home. I'm so glad that you're safe and that you're back in the US and hopefully can finally relax.
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B
Yes Most definitely. I'm so happy to be back. It was such an insane experience. But I am so happy that whenever I got in my bed last night, I was like, oh, my gosh, I'm home.
- [18:43]
A
I bet. Well, I want to start by going back to how you found yourself stranded in the first place and where you were during this journey.
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B
Yeah. Yeah. So basically, I was in India for two weeks. I was there for my best friend's sister's wedding. And after the wedding, we went all throughout the state of Rajasthan. It was so wonderful. It was great. We ended the trip back in Delhi, and I was supposed to fly from Delhi to DoH and then from Doha to Dallas because I was flying on Qatar Airways. So the first flight was fine, landed in Doha. My next flight, long story short, about an hour and a half into the entire flight, we ended up turning around, and I got a notification on my phone that said that the US And Israel had begun airstrikes on Iran. So then the captain said after that, we had to go back to Doha because of airspace restrictions and because of a military conflict that had arisen. And so my mind, I'm like, what. What. What's about to go on? Like, what? I don't. I didn't know the extent as to everything that was about to happen. So it was just kind of a whirlwind of an experience at the beginning.
- [19:47]
A
Yeah. I mean, what is that feeling when the flight is turning back?
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B
Yeah, you know, I definitely was uncertain. I didn't know what entirely that meant. It really was just a lot of confusion and a bit of chaos, even in the airport and on the plane before we even landed, too. It was just. It was a lot, honestly.
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A
And then how did you learn that it wasn't going to be today or for a while?
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B
It really started to sink in around, like, 12:30 in the morning, because I was in the lounge, and all of a sudden, a bunch of airport staff came in the lounge, and they were like, you have to evacuate the airport right now. Like, we're evacuating the lounge. We're clearing the lounge. You have to go to the transfer desk, get your hotel information, and then leave. And I was like, wow, I think I might be stuck here.
- [20:27]
A
And to be clear, they were evacuating it for safety concerns, right?
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B
Correct. Yes. At this point, it had been clear that the Kuwait airport and the Dubai airport, both of them had been under some type of either attack or they were damaged. And by that point, there were a bunch of AI videos going around that the Doha airport had been hit. So I'm getting comments on my TikTok saying, Oliver, you need to leave. The Doha airport has been hit. When I was at the Doha airport and nothing happened, but so much misinformation was getting out there. So it was just mainly out of concern. And that's why they were like, just leave, because the airport is going to be a target.
- [21:01]
A
I've been watching some of your social media videos. You seem surprisingly calm. In a lot of these, did you ever have a moment of panic or what kinds of emotions did you experience?
- [21:12]
B
Oh, absolutely, yes. Basically, I. I was really emotional. I was like, I don't know when I'm gonna get out of here. I don't like uncertainty. And so because of that, it was really just hitting me hard. But the best thing for me to do was, especially whenever I was going to post videos, I'm like, let me just remain calm, because I knew that there would be some people that were in Doha that were going to be watching it, and I didn't want to be one of those people that if I'm panicked, I don't want anyone else that's going to be in the similar situation to be panicked as well. So I was like, let me just remain calm. Let me be okay while I'm making these videos, but, like, let me crash out later.
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A
Yeah, but you did have those moments behind the scene that were absolutely.
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B
Yeah, because initially, whenever I got to my hotel, things were fine. But then I think it was like the second day I was woken up out of my sleep because I could hear explosions way up in the sky. And those were basically the Qatar Air Defense system intercepting missiles from Iran. It was loud. It was like, think of like a thunderclap, but it's like a hundred times louder and you can feel the reverberations. It's really jarring. And so having to hear that and it's. It can go on at any time and then get on like my TikTok and just be like, I'm fine. Because realistically, I was fine. Like, I was in a safe hotel, I was being protected, so I was fine. But it's just kind of like a huge switch of emotions.
- [22:41]
A
Yeah, I mean, unfortunately, there's people around the world who kind of have to get used to this. But let's be honest, as Americans, we are not used to that. And it's hard for me to even imagine bombs going off above your head. I mean, that is a new experience. Like, do you feel like it's changed you?
- [22:57]
B
Yes. So actually I just Got back from lunch with a friend, and this particular restaurant has this big freezer. And in the freezer, whenever the door closes, it's a big slam. And every single time that it slammed, like I jumped a little bit. So I definitely think it's changed me. And I'm kind of scared for whenever storms are going to happen because it sounds like thunderclaps. So I don't, I don't know how things are going to go on in the future, but it's just like, yeah, absolutely.
- [23:27]
A
Yeah. And I, I imagine it hasn't been that long since you've even gotten home, so you're probably still processing.
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B
Yeah, I haven't even been home for 24 hours. Yeah. Wow.
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A
What was your interaction like with the US Government?
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B
Before I even left the airport, I was told to sign up for the STEP program, which basically that is for whenever you're in situations like this and the US Government needs to know where you are. So they knew where I was because I filled out the form. I had called the US Embassy, I told them where I was staying, the hotel, so that they knew everything. I kept calling them. But the thing is, at the embassy, they kept having to hang up on me because they said that they were very short staffed over there, then they had to evacuate. But then I had family members like my father. He was really adamant on reaching out to senators, any of my other representatives, and also making sure the State Department knew where I was. So at the very tail end of whenever I was in Doha, I kept getting calls from like a no caller ID number. And I knew that was the US Government. So I kept answering and they were giving me updates and they were saying, hey, Oliver, we've been seeing your story on ABC News. We've been seeing your story on this news channel and whatnot. Well, they were like, we are going to come up with a plan and we're going to help get you out. And I was like, okay, thank you. And time kept going on and I wasn't getting any other updates. By this time, Qatar had given me an entire itinerary to fly to London and fly to Dallas. So then on my flight from London to Dallas, I got five missed calls from the government saying, hey, we're about to charter a flight when I was already on my way home. So it was kind of like a too little, too late situation because I'd been there for over a week. And that's when they had just started to evacuate people in Qatar. And I know people that are still there that they've Been calling the government. The government's like, oh no, we're not evacuating people. And it's sad because it's like, it shouldn't even take that. I shouldn't even have to have gone on all these different interviews for the government to be like, oh, we saw your interview. Let's help you now when you know that there are so many citizens that are there and that need help.
- [25:32]
A
I know you've said that you weren't necessarily angry, but you were disappointed. Is that still the case? What do you mean by that?
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B
Definitely, I'm just disappointed. I'm not angry at the US Government. I'm definitely just disappointed. I just really would have expected a sharper response. We've always been told, you know, if, if something like this happened, call the embassy. But then we call the embassy and things just didn't really happen. And for instance, they released this number as like a, a 202 number. I called the number and they said, oh, we have no idea what you're talking about. Just sign up for the Step program. And I did. I signed up for the Step program. I got an email from the Step program that told me to go and email another email that was from the State Department. I emailed that and got an automatic response, but it gave me a link to a Google form. And in the Google form it gave me that same 202 number that told me to sign up for the Step program. And I was like, this is a really big circle of just nothing, essentially.
- [26:27]
A
What was the feeling there overall among locals that you got to speak with or other travelers?
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B
So in terms of the other travelers, we were all just really concerned and like uncertain. It was really nerve wracking. It was kind of scary overall because, you know, we're like, what could happen? Like, how long are we going to be here? Are we going to get out? But the locals, they were carrying on business as usual because they had so, so much faith in the Qatari government that they were still going out to malls. I saw people just out jogging, exercising. People were still hanging out. By the, I think, second or third day that I was there, I ended up befriending a couple of Qatari residents and they invited me to a dinner party and I actually invited someone that I met that was on my flight. And they were like, you guys are fine, you're okay. They're like, don't worry. Like, they're like, the government here is literally actively concocting a plan to get you guys out. And they will be doing it Safely. Even like the workers in the hotel that I was staying in, they were super calm. So the fact that I was seeing them be calm in the situation, it was definitely giving me more of a sense of, okay, just chill out for a little bit.
- [27:41]
A
How did you eventually get home?
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B
I had two plans, and then the third one came out of nowhere. I was either a going to drive to Saudi Arabia because I had a flight scheduled for from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to London. Number two, I had been talking to a bunch of the representatives from Qatar Airways, and I was telling them, please put me on any flight out of Doha to anywhere. And so they had told me, you're going to be put on a flight to Amsterdam. But I hadn't gotten the confirmation of that yet. But then I got an email from Qatar with an itinerary, and it said that I was put on a flight from Doha to London. And then they also booked my flight on American Airlines from London to Dallas. So they had already booked my way on home. So I was like, okay, let me just do that. Because also they reimbursed me for my flights as well.
- [28:29]
A
What was that moment when you saw your parents? I know they were there at the airport to surprise you and welcome you home. And I imagine this was scary for them as well.
- [28:39]
B
Oh, my gosh. It felt so good to see my parents because. And I felt bad. I'm not trying to, like, stress them out or anything, but they were really stressed out. Yeah, but it was. It was so good seeing them. I'm so glad that they were there. I didn't even know that they were going to have balloons and a sign and they had cake and champagne when we got home, I'm like, oh, my gosh, you guys. It was great, though. I really appreciate them for that.
- [29:00]
A
You've said there are other people still stranded. I know you've talked about wanting to help them. How many people do you know that are still stranded and what types of things can you even do, if anything?
- [29:11]
B
I know so many people that are still stranded. There are a lot of people who are dming me like, still right now saying, hey, what did you do to get out? Like, how did you do this? Whenever I was on my flights yesterday, I was replying to so many people telling them who to go to. Like, if you were on Qatar, make sure you go to one of the hotels that had the representatives. But some of the representatives were saying that they can't help unless you were staying at that hotel. Also, if you're a US Citizen. I was making sure that, like you were calling the right numbers for the State Department, I was telling people to make sure to contact your representatives. That's what you also really need to do because if you get enough awareness of that, then they will eventually do something to help you.
- [29:50]
A
Final thoughts about your experience it really
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B
just put into perspective like how quick life can change because I was just expecting to go home. And so it really just kind of makes me step back and look at life and appreciate life more because you really don't know where things are going to go. And also a lot of people unfortunately have lost their lives during this and it just really just makes me step back and look at life and appreciate life for what it is.
- [30:20]
A
Thank you so much for sharing your experience and taking the time in the whirlwind that you've been through to talk with us. We so appreciate it and we're so glad that you're home and safe.
- [30:29]
B
Thank you so much. I really appreciate that as well. Thank you.
- [30:34]
A
Well, thank you so much to both of our guests for taking the time to chat with us. You can find Oliver Sims IV and watch his videos on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube oliversimsiv, which stands for the fourth, and get more of Kamaran Bakhari's insights about Iran and the Middle east by following him on X. Amran Bakhari we'll link to both accounts in today's Episode notes on our website. If you found this episode helpful or important, please share it with a friend or online. And of course, join us again during the week to stay updated and informed on the war in Iran and more news we provide daily roundups with a wide variety of news stories, all in less than 15 minutes every Monday through Friday. So thanks again for listening. We'll be back on Monday with the latest news. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.