Special Edition: Politics, Power & the Price of a Shutdown

Summary

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The NewsWorthy: Special Edition

Episode: Politics, Power & the Price of a Shutdown
Date: October 18, 2025
Host: Erica Mandy
Guest: Jonathan Birx, EVP for Economic and Health Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center

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Overview

In this special edition, host Erica Mandy sits down with policy veteran Jonathan Birx to untangle the causes, impact, and possible resolution of the ongoing federal government shutdown—the longest in history. The conversation covers who gets hit hardest, why shutdowns keep recurring, how decisions about pay and “essential” workers are made, the partisan standoff over health subsidies, and why average Americans might be more influential than they realize in breaking the impasse.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Scope and Impact of the Shutdown

• Affected Federal Workers:
  • 1.8 million federal employees are impacted.
  • 700,000 are furloughed, the rest are working without pay or under special authorities.
  • If the shutdown continues, paying these workers will become untenable.
  • Quote:

    "It's a real question mark as to whether or not there's enough funds left in agency bank accounts...there's certainly not enough money to do it over the long term."
    — Jonathan Birx [01:15]

2. Back Pay for Federal Employees

• 2019 Law and Current Confusion:
  • Traditionally, Congress would pass a law for back pay post-shutdown.
  • The 2019 law aimed to guarantee back pay for all, even furloughed workers.
  • Some in Congress surprised by current debate over this guarantee.
  • Quote:

    "It's a bit of a surprise, I think, to most members of Congress that there was any question about whether the 2019 law covered those employees who had been furloughed."
    — Jonathan Birx [02:14]

3. Essential vs. Nonessential Workers

• Who Decides, and How?
  • The President has broad authority and discretion.
  • Definitions change with each administration.
  • This shutdown has a narrower definition of "essential," but law enforcement is fully called in.
  • Quote:

    "It's always an issue of degree in terms of what president deems essential, what the President deems non essential."
    — Jonathan Birx [03:17]

4. Shutdown as a Tool for Permanent Cuts

• President Trump’s Approach:
  • Using the shutdown to implement permanent, often partisan, workforce cuts is highly unusual.
  • Raises tenure and fairness concerns.
  • Quote:

    "It is unusual, to say the least, for a president to use a shutdown as an opportunity to make permanent changes in the federal workforce."
    — Jonathan Birx [03:43]

5. Who’s Hit the Hardest

• Most Impacted Agencies/Services:
  • Women, Infants & Children (WIC) Program: Funding expired; temporary fixes may not last.
  • Programs outside appropriations also affected (e.g., Medicare telehealth, hospital-at-home care).
  • Public may not notice unless directly affected, but impacts are widespread and mounting.
  • Quote:

    "These are real world impacts that you may not feel if you're not the direct beneficiary. But it's really having an impact on people today..."
    — Jonathan Birx [05:07]

6. Why Americans Should Care

• Ripple Effects:
  • Early mitigation may hide immediate pain, but effects will become widespread if the shutdown drags on.
  • Impacts cross partisan lines and regional divides.
  • Quote:

    "The longer this goes, the more dire those impacts are going to be, and they're gonna be felt across the board, not just in communities or programs that are favored by one party or the other."
    — Jonathan Birx [06:05]

7. Comparing Shutdowns Past and Present

• Historical Context:
  • The previous longest was 34 days (2018-2019), and that was only partial.
  • Current shutdown is broader, reminiscent of 1990s standoffs.
  • Quote:

    "We're soon going to be entering uncharted territory."
    — Jonathan Birx [06:44]

8. Recurring Dysfunction and Congressional Gridlock

• Why This Happens Annually:
  • About a third of government (plus the military) must be funded yearly.
  • Bipartisanship around appropriations has deteriorated; deadlines are repeatedly missed.
  • Dysfunction has deepened since early 2000s.
  • Quote:

    "That's a real functional democracy breakdown that has been years coming."
    — Jonathan Birx [10:20]

9. Route Back to Bipartisanship

• Role of Voters:
  • Congressional incentives currently come from vocal partisans.
  • More nonpartisan, compromise-seeking voices from constituents could change behavior.
  • Quote:

    "If the majority of Americans got a little bit more vocal about...practical solutions...I think they'd be more responsive."
    — Jonathan Birx [11:06]

10. The Key Sticking Point: Health Subsidies

• Subsidies Background:

  • Pandemic-enhanced ACA subsidies are set to expire.
  • Democrats want them extended in this funding bill for more coverage and lower premiums.
  • Republicans oppose further expansion, see it as a temporary pandemic measure.
  • Quote:

    "That's the fundamental clash...Democrats are insisting this be resolved...Republicans are saying, look, we open the government and we're happy to have a conversation."
    — Jonathan Birx [12:37]

• Partisan Strategy:

  • Democrats see political value in expanding healthcare.
  • Republicans stick to opposition of the ACA.
  • Quote:

    "Positioning themselves going into the midterm elections as advocates for more healthcare... probably pretty good politics from their standpoint."
    — Jonathan Birx [13:05]

11. Shutdowns Are Self-Defeating

• No Savings, No Policy Payoff:
  • Shutdowns do not actually save money or settle disputes effectively.
  • Past shutdowns over the ACA didn't lead to meaningful Republican wins.
  • Quote:

    "They don't save money and...they're not an effective way of resolving policy disputes."
    — Jonathan Birx [13:37]

12. How It Might End

• Prediction:
  • Shutdown likely to end within weeks as mitigation options run out.
  • Public engagement with members of Congress is crucial for a solution.
  • Quote:

    "Ultimately, members of Congress are responsive to their voters and people should be active and be engaged...Because ultimately this is our government."
    — Jonathan Birx [14:20]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the stakes:

  "What we're seeing is a hardening of positions rather than folks coming together and figuring a way out of this shutdown."
  — Jonathan Birx [04:06]

• On persistent deadlock:

  "Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of prospect...near term, for Congress coming together and doing this in a bipartisan basis."
  — Jonathan Birx [10:32]

• On the power of citizens:

  "How we engage with it, what we tell our representatives matters."
  — Jonathan Birx [14:33]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | [01:15] | 1.8 million workers affected | | [02:14] | Confusion over back pay law | | [03:17] | Who decides who's "essential" | | [04:06] | Effectiveness of shutdown as bargaining tool | | [05:07] | Hardest-hit agencies/programs | | [06:05] | Why all Americans should care | | [06:44] | Comparisons to previous shutdowns | | [10:20] | Dysfunction in appropriations process | | [11:06] | Need for more bipartisan constituent advocacy | | [12:37] | Health subsidies as the main point of contention | | [13:37] | Shutdowns as ineffective solutions | | [14:20] | Forecast for shutdown resolution and civic engagement |

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Conclusion

Erica Mandy’s wide-ranging interview with Jonathan Birx provides a fast, fair, and informative deep dive into the realities and consequences of government shutdowns in America—from practical impacts to political stalemates, and the underlying dysfunction that makes headlines each year. The conversation urges citizens not only to understand the stakes but also to engage—reminding listeners that their voices hold the power to push Congress toward solutions.

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Transcript

[A]

Today is Saturday, October 18th. The federal government is on track for the longest shutdown in history. And as it drags on, frustration is growing in Washington and across the country. So why does this keep happening? What's the actual impact so far? And how might it all end? Today we're hearing from Jonathan Birx, a longtime budget and policy expert who's spent years inside the system. He's previously worked at the White House and on Capitol Hill. Now he's the executive vice president for economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit that works with both sides of the aisle to craft solutions. He's here to explain what's at stake from what programs are already hit hard and how essential workers are decided to what it will take to bring Washington back to the table. Welcome. Welcome to THE NEWSWORTHY SPECIAL EDITION Saturday, when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes where we provide all the day's news in 10 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy. It's now time for today's special edition Saturday. Jonathan Birx, thanks so much for joining us here on THE newsworthy.

[B]

Thank you for having me.

[A]

How many federal workers are estimated to be furloughed or forced to work without pay in the shutdown?

[B]

There's about 1.8 million federal employees affected by the shutdown total. About 700,000 of those have been furloughed, and the rest essentially are working without pay or working under permanent pay authorities. Frankly, it's a real question mark as to whether or not there's enough funds left in agency bank accounts essentially to fund those those checks. And if this drags on, there's certainly not enough money to do it over the long term.

[A]

This year, the idea of whether workers should automatically receive back pay has been questioned. Why is it being questioned? What was your reaction to that? And is there a real argument there?

[B]

Yeah. So until the last government shutdown in 2018, 2019, the Standard had been for con, after the shutdown was ended, to pass a specific law providing authority to make back pay both for those employees who had been furloughed and those who had been deemed essential and therefore had been working during the shutdown. In 2019, Congress changed the law, and the intent of that change was to make it clear that even those employees who had been furloughed and therefore hadn't been working would be paid after a shutdown, any future shutdown. And so it's a bit of a surprise, I think, to most members of Congress that there was any question about whether the 2019 law covered those employees who had been furloughed. And I think that's one of the areas that even Republicans in Congress have been pushing back on the administration saying our understanding of the law is that both those deemed essential and those non essential would be paid after the shutdown ends.

[A]

But if needed, Congress could pass something to make sure those workers get paid.

[B]

Exactly. And that's what Congress has done in previous shutdowns. And so that's a very live option.

[A]

Who gets to decide which workers are essential or non essential?

[B]

Yeah, so that is a decision made by the president. There is a very loose definition in law, but it gives him a lot of discretion. And so over the years, we've seen presidents have a very expansive definition of who's essential or a very narrow one. And so what we're seeing, I think this time is a pretty narrow definition of who's essential, with certain exceptions calling back all law enforcement agencies and that full staffing. That's an unusual interpretation. But obviously law enforcement is one of those things that traditionally has been considered essential to some degree. And it's always an issue of degree in terms of what president deems essential, what the President deems non essential.

[A]

What about the more permanent cuts that President Trump is making and saying that it's meant to be for more Democrat supported agencies and programs?

[B]

So it is unusual, to say the least, for a president to use a shutdown as an opportunity to make permanent changes in the federal workforce. And so there's authority arguably in law to allow that. But it is very unusual and certainly very unusual to do so in a partisan way.

[A]

And do you think it will ultimately be effective to get Democrats on board?

[B]

It hasn't proven so far. I think there's a lot of members of Congress who are looking at this and it's making them feel that there's the stakes of this are higher and that they are. That they're fighting for more, frankly. And so, you know, I think what we've seen over the last week or so is hardening of positions rather than folks coming together and figuring a way out of this shutdown.

[A]

Give us some examples of the kinds of agencies or services or programs that are hit the hardest or that Americans feel the most.

[B]

I think one of the most prominent examples is the Women Infants and Children's program, which provides things like formula for newborns, that is a nutrition program that is funded annually and therefore its money ran out at the beginning of the fiscal year, the administration has said that they're going to transfer some funds in to provide for a temporary fix to that. But the question of whether or not there's enough money in that program to fix that over the long term is a real question mark. And so that's one tangible example. Some of the other things actually that have been affected are outside of the appropriations process, but are just as impactful. For example, there's a program that allows for Medicare telehealth. So if you're an older American who can't get to the doctor, you can do a telehealth appointment instead. The authority for that expired at the end of the fiscal year. There's a program that provides for acute care, medical care for patients at home. That program expired at the end of the fiscal year. And so these are real world impacts that you may not feel if you're not the direct beneficiary. But it's really having an impact on people today beyond just the more prominent things like the Smithsonian being closed or potentially air traffic controllers not showing up for work for a shift, given that they're not being paid.

[A]

Yeah. And when you think about all of what you just said, what's your pitch to Americans about why they should care.

[B]

About this first piece of it is that even if the effects haven't been felt in every corner of America in the first two weeks, that doesn't mean that there won't be effects that are felt pretty soon. The reality that some agencies may have had some money in the bank that have allowed them to mitigate some of those effects early on, or that the administration has found some pockets of money that allow them to make sure that that the military gets paid. Got their paycheck this week, or that the law enforcement will get their paycheck, doesn't mean that's a permanent solution. And so the longer this goes, the more dire those impacts are going to be, and they're gonna be felt across the board, not just in communities or programs that are favored by one party or the other.

[A]

There was a quote this week about this could be the longest shutdown ever. How does this compare to previous shutdowns?

[B]

The longest was 34 days back in 2018, 2019, and that was a partial government shutdown. What we're facing here, where you've got all the AGENC impacted, that hasn't happened really in a prolonged way since the 1990s when Speaker Gingrich and President Clinton were going at it. And so this is soon going to be entering uncharted territory.

[A]

Still ahead, our guest explains the issues holding up this shutdown and why Congress seems to hit the same dead end every year. Plus what he thinks it'll take to fix the gridlock and why Americans themselves may hold more power than you might think. That and more coming up. But first, a quick break to thank our sponsors. I know that sometimes the news can feel heavy. There's so much happening and it's easy for all that information to turn into overwhelm or anxiety. Our goal here at the Newsworthy is to help you stay updated without feeling that way as much. But I also know that sometimes you might need a little extra support, and that's where Calm comes in. Calm is the number one app for sleep and meditation and it's designed to help calm your nervous system, quiet your thoughts and refocus your energy. I love all the options available on calm. I've used guided meditations the most to work through stress, boost focus, and feel more gratitude. There are also short expert LED talks that can be a great boost of motivation in the middle of my day. Calm also has sleep stories, calming music and more. So whether you want a break from the news, need to handle grief, improve self esteem, or strengthen relationships, the Calm app puts all these tools right there in your pocket. Calm your mind, change your life. Calm has an exclusive offer just for listeners of our show. You can get 40% off off a Calm Premium subscription at calm.com newsworthy this is an amazing value. Go to c a l m.com newsworthy for 40% off. Unlimited access to com's entire library com.com newsworthy and tell calm you heard about them from me. The Newsworthy is also brought to you by Skims. Some days I want to feel polished. Other days I just want to feel cozy. Thankfully, my skims tees cover both. The Boyfriend T shirt has become my go to lately. It's that perfectly oversized fit that's just right. It's so soft, it's light, it drapes beautifully. It's one of those pieces that makes even a simple outfit feel intentionally put together. I wear it around the house. I wear it out. It's really versatile. Then there's the cotton jersey tee which is kind of the opposite. It's smooth, it's form fitting and it's very flattering. I love the short sleeve version with jeans or joggers and the long sleeve one for layering as the weather cools this fall. Other long sleeves would typically ride up or bunch at the waist, but this one stays put no matter what I'm doing. Every skims tee I own has the same thing in common, that luxuriously soft feel and a great fit. Shop my favorite T shirts [e-mail] newsworthy. After you place your order, be sure to let them know we sent you. Select podcast in the survey and choose our show from the drop down menu that follows. That's skims.com newsworthy. Now back to my conversation with Jonathan Birx from the Bipartisan Policy Center. Can you explain for our listeners why and how a government shutdown is in the news so much every single year? And it seems to be this big partisan issue.

[B]

About a third of the government is funded on an annual basis and then the military is about another third. So you've got sort of these pieces of the government that are every year Congress has to come together, enact appropriations in order for them to continue operating as intended. And frankly, we've seen over time that there's less and less bipartisanship in Congress. And appropriations has always been one of those areas that has been done on a bipartisan basis. And so as general bipartisanship has broken down, the appropriations process is increasingly dysfunctional. And every year come September, October, there's a conversation about whether or not Congress is going to get its business done on time. And it hasn't, frankly, gotten its business done on time across all those bills since the early 2000s. And that's a real functional democracy breakdown that has been coming, years coming. And unfortunately, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of prospect in the near term for Congress coming together and doing this on a bipartisan basis, on time, on a yearly basis.

[A]

How do we get back to a place that's a little more bipartisan, especially in Congress?

[B]

I think part of it is going to require that members of Congress see the benefits of bipartisanship and that they're hearing from their constituents, that they want them to find solutions to problems on a bipartisan basis? Right now, if you're a member of Congress, you hear most often and most loudly from partisans on one side or the other who are passionate about their positions. And so you're responsive to that. I think if the majority of Americans got a little bit more vocal about sort of their desire for practical solutions, that recognizing that we're a country that is closely divided politically and so solutions probably require some compromise, if they were hearing more from those kinds of voices, I think they'd be more responsive to them.

[A]

This particular shutdown seems to be focused on health subsidies that are set to expire can you briefly explain the point of view from both sides of the aisle here?

[B]

So, during the pandemic, there were enacted enhancements to the Affordable Care act subsidies. So those benefits got a little bit richer and extended to a broader group of people. Under the original Affordable Care act that was passed, if you made more than 400% of the poverty level, you weren't eligible for a subsidy if you purchased health insurance through one of the exchanges. And so during the pandemic, there was a view that, great, we should expand this, given the public health needs. And that extension was enacted originally for two years. It was extended for another two years, and it's set to expire at the end of this year. Republicans have never supported the enhanced subsidies, and it's unsurprising in some ways. They've not been advocating for extending what they view as temporarily richer subsidies in response to a pandemic. And Democrats have always thought that the benefits of getting more people insured, getting more people into the risk pool, would have the benefit of lowering premiums and ensuring that people have better access to healthcare. And so that's the fundamental clash that's going on right now. And I think positions that both sides have taken, wherein the Democrats are insisting that this be resolved as part of the funding process, while Republicans are saying, look, we opened the government and we're happy to have a conversation about whether or not to extend these. And so that's where we are today. And both sides seem pretty comfortable with their talking points at the moment, and hopefully we can help them find a way forward here before too much more pain is felt in the system.

[A]

Why is this the issue, do you think that Democrats have focused in on, and do you think Republicans are sincere in saying, let's move forward and then we'll have real negotiations?

[B]

I think if I were to play political pundit, I think a lot of Democrats have always used health care as an issue where they are on the more popular side of the issue. And so positioning themselves going into the midterm elections as advocates for more healthcare for more people is probably pretty good politics from their standpoint. On the Republican side, again, they've never supported the Affordable Care Act. And so from their standpoint, continuing that viewpoint and arguing that the ACA is in fact making insurance more expensive for more Americans is not bad politics from their perspective.

[A]

What's the one thing you wish more people understood about government shutdowns?

[B]

Well, that ultimately they don't save money and that they're not an effective way of resolving policy disputes. This isn't actually the first shutdown that we've had over the ACA. Back in 2013, Senator Cruz led a shutdown trying to prevent the implementation of the aca, and that didn't obviously wasn't successful. And so we're in a circumstance where there's a lot of issues where members of Congress have difficulty coming together. The end of year funding provides a crisis moment that members have often tried to leverage for policy gains, but frankly, it's never proven effective in my time in Washington.

[A]

What's your prediction for how long this shutdown will last and any final thoughts you have?

[B]

I think the reality is that even as the administration has been able to mitigate some of the immediate pain caused by the shutdown, their ability to do that over the long term is limited. I think we're within weeks of an end of the shutdown. Ultimately, members of Congress are responsive to their voters and people should be active and be engaged with their members of Congress, making sure that they understand what their priorities really are. Because ultimately this is our government and what we how we engage with it, how we what we tell our representatives matters.

[A]

Well, thank you so much to Jonathan Birx and the Bipartisan Policy center for the insights and information today. Of course, we'll keep you updated on the latest developments for this story and all the other news to know each weekday. The Newsworthy provides all the day's news in our 10 minute daily news roundups every Monday through Friday. So we'll be back on Monday with the latest. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.