Special Edition: Quademic? This Year’s Sick Season Explained

Summary

The NewsWorthy – Special Edition: Quademic? This Year’s Sick Season Explained

Host: Erica Mandy
Guest: Dr. Caitlin Jettalina, Epidemiologist
Date: March 1, 2025

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Episode Overview

This special NewsWorthy episode dives into what many are calling a “quademic”—a sick season with a simultaneous rise in multiple viruses: flu, RSV, norovirus, and more. Host Erica Mandy brings on Dr. Caitlin Jettalina to help explain why this year is particularly challenging, what we can expect moving forward, how to keep our families safe, and addresses growing concerns about the bird flu (H5N1) in humans, animals, and food safety.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Length and Severity of the 2024-2025 Sick Season

• When will it end?

  • Dr. Jettalina shares the unfortunate news: “It’s going to be a while. We usually see a long tail into March, April, even sometimes May of a lot of sickness out there.” (01:37)
  • She emphasizes that we’re still “in the thick of it.”

• Why is it called a "quademic"?

  • Four or more viruses are circulating, but it’s more complex: “There’s actually far more than four viruses circulating right now, but certainly the most dominant is flu.” (02:08)
  • Healthcare system capacity remains the primary concern.

2. Flu: Why So Bad This Year?

• Triple-hit explanation:
  • Bad flu years happen in cycles due to virus mutation and spread. (03:10)
  • Kid vaccination rates have dropped—from 60% in 2019 to 44% this year. (03:10)
  • This year's vaccine is only about 35% effective—a significant drop from normal (50-60%). “The match between the flu virus that’s circulating and the vaccine formula … is just okay.” (03:10)
• Should you still get the flu shot?
  • “I got this year’s flu vaccine. And even if it’s not the best match, it’s still one of the best defenses we have against this virus.” (04:00)
  • It's not too late to get vaccinated: “The flu curve tail is usually very long, and we still have a lot of flu season to get through.” (04:00)

3. RSV and Norovirus Trends

• RSV:
  • “RSV is actually one of the most dangerous diseases for kiddos under five, especially those under six months.” (04:30)
  • Severity in adults is usually less, but symptoms can linger.
• Norovirus:
  • “It came in hot this year…very contagious…very hard to kill.” Only bleach and soap/water (not hand sanitizer) are effective. (05:09 & 05:55)
  • “It’s finally starting to come down. It’s still definitely out and around, but there is some reprieve on the horizon.” (06:08)

4. Prevention, Testing, and Returning to School

• Prevention:
  • “Wear an N95 mask...they work against viruses.” (06:21)
  • Ventilation/filtration helpful at home, especially with a sick child. (06:56)
• Testing:
  • “I don’t think you have to test what viruses is because ultimately it doesn’t really change what you’re going to do.” (07:49)
  • Testing can guide use of treatment options like Tamiflu (flu) or Paxlovid (COVID).
• When to send kids back:
  • “Fever is highly correlated with infectiousness. So 24 hours after a fever for flu is actually a really good marker.” (08:16)
  • For COVID, symptoms aren’t as clear; monitor lethargy and other visible illness.

5. Building Immunity: Silver Lining?

• Children do not need repeated infections to be healthy:
  • “Now we have vaccines and that could be their first exposure too...We don't have to get sick though to be healthy.” (09:14)
  • Everyday environmental exposures also help maintain immune system readiness.

6. Bird Flu (H5N1): Current Risk and Outlook

• Are current flu cases really bird flu?
  • No: “CDC randomly takes those tests and then tests them against H5N1 and they’re just not lighting up...it’s mostly the normal seasonal flu strains.” (13:05)
• Impact on animals and agriculture:
  • “H5N1…continues to spread incredibly rapidly among dairy cow as well as wild birds and poultry.” (14:01)
  • “We have seen about 70 humans get infected, a few with very severe disease…one person who died after touching their backyard flock.” (14:01)
  • Human-to-human transmission is not happening: if that changes, risk for a pandemic increases.
  • High animal death rates lead to egg shortages and higher prices.
• Pandemic potential?
  • “The probability of a pandemic is still very low. It’s about 5% right now.” (15:24)
• Food safety:
  • “Grocery store eggs are safe…Pasteurized milk is safe. Raw milk certainly has risks to it…our beef is still safe, too.” (16:00)
• Pet safety:
  • “Cats…drinking raw milk…on these dairy farms are dropping dead very quickly.” (17:12)
  • If an outdoor cat becomes very sick, contact a veterinarian.
• Backyard bird feeders:
  • “Birds that gather at feeders like cardinals and sparrows and bluebirds, they actually don’t typically carry H5N1, so it’s not recommended to remove your backyard bird feeders for now unless you also care for poultry.” (18:05 & 18:05)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the length of sick season:
  “Unfortunately, it’s going to be a while…We usually see a long tail into March, April, even sometimes May…” – Dr. Caitlin Jettalina (01:37)

• On vaccines:
  “Even if it’s not the best match, it’s still one of the best defenses we have against this virus.” – Dr. Caitlin Jettalina (04:00)

• On prevention fatigue:
  “I think everyone’s tired of hearing about masks, but they work against viruses.” – Dr. Caitlin Jettalina (06:21)

• On testing:
  “Ultimately it doesn’t really change what you’re going to do. You need to stay home and drink fluids and rest.” – Dr. Caitlin Jettalina (07:49)

• On bird flu risk:
  “The probability of a pandemic is still very low. It’s about 5% right now. That means a 95% chance that nothing happens with H5N1.” – Dr. Caitlin Jettalina (15:24)

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Key Timestamps

• 01:37: When will sick season end?
• 02:08: What “quademic” really means
• 03:10: Why flu is so bad this year
• 04:00: Should you still get the flu vaccine?
• 04:30: RSV trends and risks
• 05:09: Norovirus severity and surface cleaning advice
• 06:21: Preventive actions (masks, ventilation)
• 07:49: Should you test for specific viruses?
• 08:16: When to send sick kids back to school
• 09:14: The upside (or not) of kids getting sick
• 13:05: Is bird flu responsible for flu surge?
• 14:01: Bird flu spread in animals and humans
• 15:24: Pandemic potential for H5N1
• 16:00: Food safety (eggs, milk, beef)
• 17:12: Outdoor cats, bird flu, and pet risks
• 18:05: Bird feeders and backyard biosecurity
• 18:38: Host’s wrap up and closing thoughts

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Final Takeaways

• This “quademic” season is projected to persist well into spring, potentially May.
• Flu is the dominant virus this season, worsened by lower childhood vaccination rates and a so-so vaccine match.
• Prevention isn’t futile: N95 masks and air filtration can help, and it's not too late to get a flu shot.
• Bird flu is impacting animal agriculture but remains a low (though not zero) threat to humans.
• Grocery eggs and pasteurized milk are safe; avoid raw milk and contact with sick/dead birds or outdoor cats acting ill.
• While sick season is hard on families, it will eventually end—until then, self-care and commonsense precautions matter most.

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For more practical science insights from Dr. Caitlin Jettalina, visit her “Your Local Epidemiologist” newsletter at yourlocalepidemiologist.co.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Today is Saturday, March 1st. This has been the worst flu season in years on top of other threats like RSV and norovirus. So today we're talking about why flu has been surging, how long this sixth season will last and steps we can all take to keep ourselves and our families safe. Plus, later in the show, learn the latest about the so called bird flu and why it matters. Dr. Caitlin Jettalina is an epidemiologist, data scientist and scientific consultant. She has a passion for making science accessible with her newsletter called you'd Local Epidemiologist and and she's here to help us all understand what's happening right now when it comes to our health. Welcome. Welcome to the Newsworthy Special Edition Saturday when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday through Friday for our regular episodes where we provide all the day's news in 10 minutes. I'm Erica Mandy. It's now time for today's Special edition Saturday. Dr. Caitlin Jettalina, thank you for joining us here on the Newsworthy once again.

[C]

Thanks for having me.

[B]

So my first question is when will sick season be over? Please help us all. Or at least this is the feeling.

[C]

Amongst many moms that I know, including myself. Yes, unfortunately it's going to be a while. We usually see a long tail into March, April, even sometimes May of a lot of sickness out there. So I'm kind of the bearer of bad news right now that we're in the thick of it, right. And it takes time.

[B]

Some people are even calling it a quademic. Four sicknesses going around at once. Can you explain? And is that still the case?

[C]

Every winter we have a ton of viruses that circulate in some winters. One dominates more than the other. And so there's actually far more than four viruses circulating right now. But certainly the Most dominant is flu. Covid had a very small winter, which was unique compared to the last winters, and RSV had about average. The reason why in the past couple years, I think mass media has called it triple demic quadra demic is our biggest concern is healthcare capacity for the ability for our nurses and physicians to have open beds, quite frankly, for sick kids and sick grandparents.

[B]

And usually I feel like we can say get your flu shot that's going to keep you out of the hospital. But I'm hearing at least that that's not necessarily the case this year.

[C]

If we back up a little and ask, why is this a bad flu season? This is due to many factors. And the first is that it could just be a bad flu year.

[B]

Right.

[C]

This happens every couple of years, and it's just how viruses mutate and spread around humans. The second is fewer and fewer kids are getting vaccinated against the flu than in pre pandemic times. Only about 44% of kids are vaccinated this year against flu, compared to about 60% in 2019. And then the third reason is what you alluded to, that the match between the flu virus that's circulating and the vaccine formula that we have this year is just okay, it's about 35% effective, which is lower than our average of about 50 to 60%. And so the combination of all these three factors are likely contributing to what we're seeing right now.

[B]

To be clear, do you still recommend the flu vaccine?

[C]

Yeah, I got this year's flu vaccine. And even if it's not the best match, it's still one of the best defenses we have against this virus. And I think one of the most important messages to get across is that it's not too late to get vaccinated. The flu curve tail is usually very long, and we still have a lot of flu season to get through.

[B]

I know you said RSV is average. What are you seeing with that one? I know that typically is one that sometimes sends kids and older people to the hospital.

[C]

RSV is actually one of the most dangerous diseases for kiddos under five, especially those under six months. It really impacts respiratory pathways that seem to overwhelm our little kiddos immune systems. But for us that unfortunately get infected after our kids are infected, it's typically not as nasty, but it certainly can linger for a few days, if not weeks.

[B]

Another one that spread quickly this year, at least according to some of the news reports, is norovirus. Is that slowing at all? And what have you seen this year with that one? And for anyone that doesn't know, that's basically a nasty stomach bug.

[C]

It came in hot this year for a really long time. So a lot of people got norovirus. This is a very contagious disease that it's very hard to kill. So typically when it hits a home, like one kid brings it home, everyone gets it because only really bleaching surfaces kills it. Not even hand sanitizer kills it right now. And so typically when we have a bad norovirus season, it's because the norovirus has mutated ever so slightly. And so our immune defenses are kind of caught in surprise. And that's what seems to be happening this year as well.

[B]

Soap and water, though, can work on hands for norovirus, right? Even if hand sanitizer doesn't.

[C]

That's right. So SOAP has a way of disengaging that virus, but you do have to wash it for at least 20 seconds under warm water with soap. Yes.

[B]

Is it slowing at all from the peak that we saw with norovirus?

[C]

It is. It's finally starting to come down. It's still definitely out and around, but there is some reprieve on the horizon.

[B]

Anything else people need to be aware of when it comes to prevention or treatment?

[C]

I'm glad you brought that up, because we can avoid some of these viruses, right? We're not all doomed to get flu virus. And one way to do that is wear an N95 mask. I think everyone's tired of hearing about masks, but they work against viruses. There is a reason why we didn't see flu for two years while everyone was at home wearing masks, too. So I wear a mask in, like, crowded airports when I just. I just don't have time to get sick. I don't want to be in the boarding area with a ton of sick people. And so I wear an N95 there.

[B]

Do you wear it on the plane?

[C]

I wear it until wheels are up. And the reason for that is planes actually have pretty good ventilation and filtration system once the plane's actually, like, in the air. The other thing I was going to say was ventilation and filtration, just like those planes. But if you have a sick child at home, you can get an air filter moving that air throughout your house, which also reduces the chance of airborne viruses like flu or Covid. What these air filters can do is decrease the probability of that virus from your kid entering your nose. It's not perfect, but another source of prevention.

[B]

Is it helpful to differentiate between these respiratory viruses? What's your Take on testing right away or do you just kind of get through it? Unless there's a specific reason, I don't.

[C]

Think you have to test what viruses is because ultimately it doesn't really change what you're going to do. You need to stay home and drink fluids and rest. There are some actions that you can take if you do know what the virus is. For example, Tamiflu for flu or Paxlovid for Covid. But other than that, it doesn't really matter.

[B]

Does there need to be a fever to stay home? Because kids always have colds. So how do you like to decide?

[C]

Fever is highly correlated with infectiousness. So 24 hours after a fever for flu is actually a really good marker for letting kids back at school. And so that's what I stuck with COVID It's a whole lot more messy because a lot of my, my kids actually don't even get fever when they have Covid. And so that's hard. I just stick to the rule that my kids are staying home when they're really lethargic, when they have a lot of green snot coming out of their nose and they just don't look well. I mean, us moms just know when our kiddos are super sick. We have to balance all of this sickness with the benefits it has of our kids going to school and our sanity and us needing to go to work. And so I think all of us can do just the best that we can do.

[B]

Is there at all a bright side for kids getting sick when it comes to their immune systems?

[C]

The first time they see RSV, the first time they see flu, the first time, etc. That's when those immune systems are built. But now we have vaccines and that could be their first exposure too, which would be a good thing because that comes with very little risk. We don't have to get sick though to be healthy. Our kids are exposed to microbes all over the world when they are playing in the dirt with roly polys to being at daycare. And that constant exposure to microbes keep their immune system up and running too. And so they don't have to get RSV every year to be healthy. In fact, that is a very dangerous misconception. Our immune systems work very well because of the environments they're exposed to on a daily basis.

[B]

Next, we're talking all about the so called bird flu. You know, the one that's already sent egg prices through the roof and started to infect dairy cows. So what risk does it pose to humans? Dr. Jetalina will explain everything, like whether people should still have bird feeders in their yards and the chances of this actually turning into another pandemic. That's all coming up, but first, a quick break for our sponsors. This episode is sponsored by Hiya Health. It's that time of Year six season. It's just one of many reasons I'm glad my son takes his Haia Children's vitamin every morning. It helps support his immunity, energy, brain function, mood, his developing body and more, no matter what other chaos may be going on in our lives. Formulated with the help of pediatricians and nutritional experts, Hayya is pressed with a blend of 12 organic fruits and veggies, then supercharged with 15 essential vitamins and minerals, including vitamin D, B12C, zinc, folate and many others. And if you're tired of battling with your kids to eat their greens, Haya now has Kids Daily Greens plus Superfoods, a chocolate flavored greens powder designed specifically for kids. Packed with more than 55 whole food ingredients to support brain power, development and digestion. Just scoop, shake and sip with milk or any non dairy beverage for a delicious and nutritious boost your kids will actually enjoy. And we've worked out a special deal with Hiya for their best selling children's vitamin. You can receive 50% off, yes, half off. Your first order to claim this deal you must go to hyahealth.com newsworthy this deal is not available on their regular website, so go to H I Y A H E a l t h.com newsworthy and get your kids the full body nourishment they need to grow into healthy adults. The Newsworthy is also brought to you by One Skin. If you're not getting the results from your skin care that you want, or you don't like the feel of it on your face, or maybe you don't have skincare that you can actually be consistent with, you've got to try one skin. I've been using OneSkin's OS One Face and Eye Topical supplements and it's so simple to do every morning and night with just a couple of pumps. So I'm actually using it. Plus the product feels amazing on my face and I love the effects I'm seeing over time. Oneskin's topical supplements are backed by lab and clinical studies and they're all powered by the OS1 peptide, the first and only peptide scientifically proven to target specific cells that contribute to lines, wrinkles and thinning skin. Founded and led by an all woman team of skin longevity scientists, Oneskin is redefining the aging process with that proprietary OS1 peptide, the first ingredient proven to help skin look, feel and behave like its younger self. Get 15% off with code newsworthy at OneSkin co. That's 15% off OneSK with the code newsworthy. And after your purchase they'll ask you where you heard about them. So please support our show and tell them we sent you. Invest in the health and longevity of your skin with Oneskin. Your future self will. Thank you. Okay, now back to our conversation going back to flu. I've seen some questions online about whether some of the flu cases we're seeing this year are actually cases of so called bird flu in humans. Is that possible or what's your answer to that?

[C]

What we're seeing is that's not the case right now. And the reason we know that is because of a few surveillance systems. One is lab tests. So CDC randomly takes flu tests that for example, the pediatrician sends to a lab to see if it's flu A or flu B. CDC randomly takes those tests and then tests them against H5N1 and they're just not lighting up. It's mostly the normal seasonal flu strains that we see each year. The other reason we know it's not H5N1, which is bird flu, is because we have wastewater surveillance monitoring for H5N1 and it's just not lighting up across the country Right now.

[B]

Bird flu is the one that's leading to an egg shortage because it's impacting so many chickens. I know it's also impacting cows on farms. So one, can you just give us an update on where it stands? And then two, specifically what's happening in terms of human health and the bird flu.

[C]

So H5N1, which is also known as bird flu, continues to spread incredibly rapidly among dairy cow as well as wild birds and poultry. The dairy cow piece of this is very new and that's why a lot of epidemiologists and virologists are nervous right now that the flu virus is changing. But it's mostly still spreading among animals. This is an animal virus, but because humans are so physically close to dairy cow and agriculture or poultry, we're getting spillover. So the virus is jumping from the animal to the human. Thankfully, it's not jumping from human to human. In that case, we would have another pandemic. But we have seen about 70 humans get infected, a few with very severe disease leading to hospitalization and one person who died after touching their backyard flock of infected poultry. And because this virus is so deadly for animals, specifically poultry. We're seeing a very high increase in egg prices because the birds are dying. And one way to stop it from spreading in agriculture is to kill those birds.

[B]

But it's still something you're watching closely because unfortunately, a pandemic is not completely out of the question when it comes to bird flu.

[C]

We always pay attention when flu is changing and when something new is happening that may have implications for humans. I want to be clear, though, that the probability of a pandemic is still very low. It's about 5% right now. That means a 95% chance that this nothing happens with H5N1. Right now, everyone in public health is doing as much as we can to get this under control, because the time to prevent an H5N1 pandemic is right now.

[B]

And anything pet owners need to be aware of, as well as the actual eggs and milk that are in the.

[C]

Grocery store eggs are safe. And one reason we know that is because sick birds just can't lay eggs. We also have the poultry industry has been dealing with flu among birds for long time, so they all of their systems are in place. Because this is new among dairy farmers, we had to learn a lot very quickly. But you're right. Pasteurized milk is safe. Raw milk certainly has risks to it, because we see a lot of H5N1 virus and raw milk, and it's also not spreading among beef cattle. So our beef is still safe, too. Right now, other than not drinking unpasteurized milk, there's not much else we can do other than don't touch dead birds, especially wild birds. And if you have backyard poultry, there's a lot you can also be doing, including keeping your flock contained, preventing germs from spreading, knowing the warning signs of infectious BIR diseases. And then if your birds are sick or do die, there's a number of steps to take, like using PPE and immediately reporting those sick or dead birds to your state veterinarian.

[B]

What about outdoor cats?

[C]

Cats is an interesting new development with this H5N1 outbreak. And because we are seeing cats that drink raw milk, for example, on these dairy farms are dropping dead very quickly. I think it's about a 50% fatality rate for cats. We know that the virus can jump from dairy cow milk to cats. We assume it can also jump from wild birds to cats. And so if your cat starts becoming very sick and is outdoors, then certainly contact a veterinarian. The challenge is that this is very new among house cats. And so we're still trying to get our hands around understanding what these dynamics are and if they can transmit that virus then to humans.

[B]

Anything else you want to mention when it comes to that one?

[C]

The only thing other question everyone has questions about is bird feeders in their backyard. Birds that gather at feeders like cardinals and sparrows and bluebirds, they actually don't typically carry H5N1, so it's not recommended to remove your backyard bird feeders for now unless you also care for poultry because the less contact between wild birds and poultry, the better.

[B]

Right now, final thoughts after all of that, either reassurances or expectations and predictions for the rest of the season.

[C]

We always leave respiratory season behind. I mean it's gonna become behind us soon. We're just, it's hard right now because there's just so much disruption in sick kiddos.

[B]

Well, thank you so much to Dr. Caitlin Jettalina for joining us and informing us. Check out her newsletter, your local epidemiologist on her website, your local epidemiologist co and thanks to you for listening today. We'll be back Monday with the news roundup. You need to catch up on all the news you may have missed over the weekend. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.