The NewsWorthy Special Edition: “Russia’s War, NATO’s Test & America’s Role”

Host: Erica Mandy
Guest: Rachel Rizzo, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
Date: September 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This Special Edition episode delves into the state of the Russia-Ukraine war more than three and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. Erica Mandy interviews Rachel Rizzo, an expert on European security and NATO, to unpack why peace has been so elusive, the shifting stances of U.S. administrations, NATO’s unity, and what’s at stake for America and the world. The conversation mixes analysis, candid assessments, and nuanced takes on possible future scenarios.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current State of the War

Timestamp: 01:09 – 01:59

• Rachel Rizzo describes Ukraine as being in a “tough spot,” with Russia unrelenting in its attacks, especially via drones and assaults on civilian infrastructure.
• Western (U.S. and NATO) aid remains crucial but insufficient to grant Ukraine a decisive military edge, particularly in areas like air superiority.
• Notably, Rizzo highlights:

  "Russia just has time on its side."
  (Rachel Rizzo, 01:14)

2. Evolving U.S./Western Support

Timestamp: 02:10 – 03:41

• The Trump administration initially sought to reduce U.S. involvement, aiming to “pass the buck” to Europe.
• Campaign promises to end the war quickly have hit the reality of the conflict’s complexity.
• Now, the Trump administration seems torn: frustrated by lack of progress, it’s simultaneously pushing Europe to do more and considering renewed U.S. support to pressure Russia.
• Rizzo notes:

  “What they're realizing is that this is just way more complicated than I think they understood…”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 02:32)

3. Alaska Peace Talks: Outcome & Analysis

Timestamp: 03:41 – 05:02

• Trump’s direct meeting with Putin in Alaska, intended as a peace initiative, failed to yield any breakthroughs.
• The U.S. negotiating team may not have adequately informed Trump about Russia’s true unwillingness to negotiate.
• Rizzo’s assessment:

  "I think that meeting in Alaska was probably premature, and it just didn't look great because nothing really came of it."
  (Rachel Rizzo, 04:50)

4. The Necessity—and Limits—of Dialogue

Timestamp: 05:02 – 06:03

• While talks are essential, both sides must find a face-saving, mutually acceptable outcome.
• The imbalance of incentives makes talks ineffectual:

  “Putin has no incentive at this moment to really come to the negotiating table and end things because the war is going well for him.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 05:52)

5. Territorial Concessions: Realities and Risks

Timestamp: 06:03 – 07:25

• Rizzo is frank: Ukraine is unlikely to regain all lost territory—likely needing to make “some territorial concessions.”
• Strong security guarantees from the West become crucial if concessions are made (e.g., robust armaments, air defenses).
• Quote:

  “If Ukraine is going to do that, then it better get some pretty serious security guarantees from the west...Ukraine is probably going to have to make some sort of territorial concession at this point.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 06:32 & 07:19)

6. The Role and Limits of Sanctions

Timestamp: 07:25 – 08:29

• Sanctions have failed to sufficiently cripple Russia’s war-financing; Russia still benefits from support (China, North Korea) and energy sales (including to India and some European countries).
• Trump signals intention to strengthen sanctions, especially urging Europe to halt Russian energy imports.
• Rizzo:

  “No, it has not been effective to a point where the Russian economy is squeezed to an extent that Russia cannot continue this war.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 07:40)

7. NATO, Drones, and Rising Tensions

Timestamp: 08:29 – 09:48

• Russian drones recently violated Polish airspace, interpreted by Rizzo as a “test” of NATO’s resolve, not an accident.
• Current NATO response: heightened patrols and warnings, but future provocations may demand more robust action.
• Quote:

  “I think this was a way for Putin to test alliance unity. I think it's a way for him to test the West.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 08:43)

8. Risk of a Wider War?

Timestamp: 12:29 – 13:38

• Despite the risks of escalation, Rizzo remains confident that a direct Russia-NATO war is unlikely:

  “I don't think that Russia wants a war with NATO...he takes NATO seriously and he takes the military strength of NATO seriously.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 13:18)

9. The Path Forward & Prognosis

Timestamp: 13:39 – 15:09

• The goal for the West: lengthen Ukraine’s ability to resist and shorten Russia’s will to continue.
• Realistically, Rizzo sees little chance of a ceasefire in the near future.
• Quote:

  “I just don't think that there is a point that I can see any time in the near future where the conditions on the ground are met for both sides and we could see hostilities cease.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 14:26)

10. Why Should Americans Care?

Timestamp: 15:09 – 16:31

• While Ukraine’s plight may seem distant, Rizzo frames its significance around upholding democratic norms and deterring authoritarian aggression, both vital for U.S. interests.
• She does acknowledge Europe should bear more responsibility, but asserts continued American engagement matters.
• Quote:

  “If you allow bigger countries to invade smaller countries and completely squash democratic norms and democratic principles...that is not good for the United States and it's not good for our values.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 15:21)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Russia just has time on its side.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 01:14

• “What they're realizing is that this is just way more complicated than I think they understood..."
  —Rachel Rizzo, 02:32

• “I think that meeting in Alaska was probably premature, and it just didn't look great because nothing really came of it.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 04:50

• “Putin has no incentive at this moment to really come to the negotiating table and end things because the war is going well for him.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 05:52

• “If Ukraine is going to do that, then it better get some pretty serious security guarantees from the west...”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 06:32

• “No, [sanctions have] not been effective to a point where the Russian economy is squeezed to an extent that Russia cannot continue this war.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 07:40

• “I think this was a way for Putin to test alliance unity.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 08:43

• “I don't think that Russia wants a war with NATO...he takes NATO seriously and he takes the military strength of NATO seriously.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 13:18

• “I would love to be proven wrong…but I just don't know that we're there.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 14:52

• “…that is not good for the United States and it's not good for our values.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 15:28

Segment Timestamps

• Overview & introduction: 00:00–01:04
• State of the war: 01:09–01:59
• U.S. policy shifts: 02:10–03:41
• Peace talks & negotiation analysis: 03:41–05:02
• Dialogue necessity/limits: 05:02–06:03
• Territorial concessions: 06:03–07:25
• Sanctions: 07:25–08:29
• Drones in NATO territory: 08:29–09:48
• Escalation/wider war concerns: 12:29–13:38
• What’s next & prognosis: 13:39–15:09
• Why America should care: 15:09–16:31

Summary & Tone

The conversation is candid, pragmatic, and precise. Rizzo brings realism to her analysis—acknowledging both the moral and strategic dimensions, and the complexities that have frustrated easy solutions. Erica Mandy’s questions cut to the key dilemmas facing policy makers and the general public, ensuring clarity without alarmism.

For listeners seeking an up-to-date, balanced, and thoughtful breakdown of Russia’s war on Ukraine, NATO’s unity, and America’s stakes, this episode distills dense geopolitics into clear insights and memorable moments—essential for understanding this critical turning point in global affairs.