Special Edition: Russia’s War, NATO’s Test & America’s Role

Summary

The NewsWorthy Special Edition: “Russia’s War, NATO’s Test & America’s Role”

Host: Erica Mandy
Guest: Rachel Rizzo, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
Date: September 20, 2025

---

Episode Overview

This Special Edition episode delves into the state of the Russia-Ukraine war more than three and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. Erica Mandy interviews Rachel Rizzo, an expert on European security and NATO, to unpack why peace has been so elusive, the shifting stances of U.S. administrations, NATO’s unity, and what’s at stake for America and the world. The conversation mixes analysis, candid assessments, and nuanced takes on possible future scenarios.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current State of the War

Timestamp: 01:09 – 01:59

• Rachel Rizzo describes Ukraine as being in a “tough spot,” with Russia unrelenting in its attacks, especially via drones and assaults on civilian infrastructure.
• Western (U.S. and NATO) aid remains crucial but insufficient to grant Ukraine a decisive military edge, particularly in areas like air superiority.
• Notably, Rizzo highlights:

  "Russia just has time on its side."
  (Rachel Rizzo, 01:14)

---

2. Evolving U.S./Western Support

Timestamp: 02:10 – 03:41

• The Trump administration initially sought to reduce U.S. involvement, aiming to “pass the buck” to Europe.
• Campaign promises to end the war quickly have hit the reality of the conflict’s complexity.
• Now, the Trump administration seems torn: frustrated by lack of progress, it’s simultaneously pushing Europe to do more and considering renewed U.S. support to pressure Russia.
• Rizzo notes:

  “What they're realizing is that this is just way more complicated than I think they understood…”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 02:32)

---

3. Alaska Peace Talks: Outcome & Analysis

Timestamp: 03:41 – 05:02

• Trump’s direct meeting with Putin in Alaska, intended as a peace initiative, failed to yield any breakthroughs.
• The U.S. negotiating team may not have adequately informed Trump about Russia’s true unwillingness to negotiate.
• Rizzo’s assessment:

  "I think that meeting in Alaska was probably premature, and it just didn't look great because nothing really came of it."
  (Rachel Rizzo, 04:50)

---

4. The Necessity—and Limits—of Dialogue

Timestamp: 05:02 – 06:03

• While talks are essential, both sides must find a face-saving, mutually acceptable outcome.
• The imbalance of incentives makes talks ineffectual:

  “Putin has no incentive at this moment to really come to the negotiating table and end things because the war is going well for him.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 05:52)

---

5. Territorial Concessions: Realities and Risks

Timestamp: 06:03 – 07:25

• Rizzo is frank: Ukraine is unlikely to regain all lost territory—likely needing to make “some territorial concessions.”
• Strong security guarantees from the West become crucial if concessions are made (e.g., robust armaments, air defenses).
• Quote:

  “If Ukraine is going to do that, then it better get some pretty serious security guarantees from the west...Ukraine is probably going to have to make some sort of territorial concession at this point.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 06:32 & 07:19)

---

6. The Role and Limits of Sanctions

Timestamp: 07:25 – 08:29

• Sanctions have failed to sufficiently cripple Russia’s war-financing; Russia still benefits from support (China, North Korea) and energy sales (including to India and some European countries).
• Trump signals intention to strengthen sanctions, especially urging Europe to halt Russian energy imports.
• Rizzo:

  “No, it has not been effective to a point where the Russian economy is squeezed to an extent that Russia cannot continue this war.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 07:40)

---

7. NATO, Drones, and Rising Tensions

Timestamp: 08:29 – 09:48

• Russian drones recently violated Polish airspace, interpreted by Rizzo as a “test” of NATO’s resolve, not an accident.
• Current NATO response: heightened patrols and warnings, but future provocations may demand more robust action.
• Quote:

  “I think this was a way for Putin to test alliance unity. I think it's a way for him to test the West.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 08:43)

---

8. Risk of a Wider War?

Timestamp: 12:29 – 13:38

• Despite the risks of escalation, Rizzo remains confident that a direct Russia-NATO war is unlikely:

  “I don't think that Russia wants a war with NATO...he takes NATO seriously and he takes the military strength of NATO seriously.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 13:18)

---

9. The Path Forward & Prognosis

Timestamp: 13:39 – 15:09

• The goal for the West: lengthen Ukraine’s ability to resist and shorten Russia’s will to continue.
• Realistically, Rizzo sees little chance of a ceasefire in the near future.
• Quote:

  “I just don't think that there is a point that I can see any time in the near future where the conditions on the ground are met for both sides and we could see hostilities cease.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 14:26)

---

10. Why Should Americans Care?

Timestamp: 15:09 – 16:31

• While Ukraine’s plight may seem distant, Rizzo frames its significance around upholding democratic norms and deterring authoritarian aggression, both vital for U.S. interests.
• She does acknowledge Europe should bear more responsibility, but asserts continued American engagement matters.
• Quote:

  “If you allow bigger countries to invade smaller countries and completely squash democratic norms and democratic principles...that is not good for the United States and it's not good for our values.”
  (Rachel Rizzo, 15:21)

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Russia just has time on its side.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 01:14

• “What they're realizing is that this is just way more complicated than I think they understood..."
  —Rachel Rizzo, 02:32

• “I think that meeting in Alaska was probably premature, and it just didn't look great because nothing really came of it.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 04:50

• “Putin has no incentive at this moment to really come to the negotiating table and end things because the war is going well for him.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 05:52

• “If Ukraine is going to do that, then it better get some pretty serious security guarantees from the west...”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 06:32

• “No, [sanctions have] not been effective to a point where the Russian economy is squeezed to an extent that Russia cannot continue this war.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 07:40

• “I think this was a way for Putin to test alliance unity.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 08:43

• “I don't think that Russia wants a war with NATO...he takes NATO seriously and he takes the military strength of NATO seriously.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 13:18

• “I would love to be proven wrong…but I just don't know that we're there.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 14:52

• “…that is not good for the United States and it's not good for our values.”
  —Rachel Rizzo, 15:28

---

Segment Timestamps

• Overview & introduction: 00:00–01:04
• State of the war: 01:09–01:59
• U.S. policy shifts: 02:10–03:41
• Peace talks & negotiation analysis: 03:41–05:02
• Dialogue necessity/limits: 05:02–06:03
• Territorial concessions: 06:03–07:25
• Sanctions: 07:25–08:29
• Drones in NATO territory: 08:29–09:48
• Escalation/wider war concerns: 12:29–13:38
• What’s next & prognosis: 13:39–15:09
• Why America should care: 15:09–16:31

---

Summary & Tone

The conversation is candid, pragmatic, and precise. Rizzo brings realism to her analysis—acknowledging both the moral and strategic dimensions, and the complexities that have frustrated easy solutions. Erica Mandy’s questions cut to the key dilemmas facing policy makers and the general public, ensuring clarity without alarmism.

For listeners seeking an up-to-date, balanced, and thoughtful breakdown of Russia’s war on Ukraine, NATO’s unity, and America’s stakes, this episode distills dense geopolitics into clear insights and memorable moments—essential for understanding this critical turning point in global affairs.

Transcript

[A]

Today is Saturday, September 20th. It's now been about a month since President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met face to face. And this week Trump said Putin has let him down. But he also suggested good news could be coming soon about the war in Ukraine. So what's really going on? Why has it been so hard to strike a deal and what role should the US And NATO play more than three and a half years into Russia's full scale invasion? Our guest today is Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center. She specializes in European security, NATO and the transatlantic relationship. She's here to give us an update on the Russia, Ukraine war and the efforts to end it.

[B]

Welcome.

[A]

Welcome to THE NEWSWORTHY Special EDITION Saturday when we sit down with a different expert or celebrity every Saturday to talk about something in the news. Don't forget to tune in every Monday.

[B]

Through Friday for our regular episodes when.

[A]

We provide all the day's news in just 10 minutes.

[B]

It's fast, fair, fun and on the go.

[A]

I'm Erica.

[C]

Mandy.

[A]

It's time for today's Special EDITION Saturday. You ready?

[C]

Let's do this.

[A]

Rachel Rizzo, thank you so much for joining us here on THE newsworthy.

[C]

Thanks so much for having me.

[A]

So first, just big picture, give us.

[B]

The overview of how you would describe the state of the Russia, Ukraine war right now.

[C]

So it's been a tough go for the last couple of months with Ukraine. Russia is showing no signs of slowing down its drone attacks, its attacks on civilian infrastructure. And Ukraine is in a tough spot because as Russia continues this onslaught, the United States and NATO countries on a bilateral basis with Ukraine are still providing support, but not enough to really give Ukraine the opportunity to gain a decisive military edge over Russia, both on the battlefield and in terms of things like air superiority. So I would say that Russia just has time on its side.

[B]

When you're talking about the support that Western countries, including the US Are providing Ukraine, how has that shifted? Because for a while we saw the Trump administration saying we really need to pull back our support.

[A]

But then it's shifted where we've now President Trump has said that he is.

[B]

Going to provide more support again to Ukraine. So what are you seeing with kind of that back and forth and where it stands now compared to how the.

[C]

Biden administration was, I'm seeing two things happen concurrently. The first is this real desire on behalf of the Trump administration to pass the buck on to Europe when it comes to continued military and financial support of Ukraine. And the way I think this administration saw that they could be able to do that was by pulling back support from the United States. So you have that. And. But at the same time, I think you're seeing a real frustration on behalf of the Trump administration where they thought, and as Trump claimed during his campaign many times, that they could end this war within 24 hours, they could end it within 60, 90, 100 days. And what they're realizing is that this is just way more complicated than I think they understood, and that I think that they were expecting. And there's a frustration that we're seeing start to develop amongst Trump and his closest advisors that they are not being able to make progress. And so I think they're also trying to maybe provide more support now that could put the pressure on Putin to force him to the table. So you have these two sort of competing interests that are butting up against each other. One, the desire to get Europe to do more to the desire to get Russia to the table, ready to negotiate and to put more pressure on them. And that is all coming together at once here.

[B]

And we saw President Trump meet directly with Russian President Putin in Alaska recently for what he was hoping would be peace talks. What was your take on that approach and the potential impact that we've seen since?

[C]

Yeah, that did not go well for either side, I would say. I think that there was an understanding from the Trump team that it's not like they were gonna go up to Alaska and come out with a ceasefire, but I think they expected more from that meeting, and I don't think that they got what they were looking for, because I don't think that Steve Witkoff, who's helping the US Negotiate with Ukraine, really gave Trump good insight into how ready the Russians really are to negotiate, which is they're really not ready. They really have no sense of wanting to end this war. They have not enough pressure on them at the moment. And so I think Trump was under the impression that you have this meeting in Alaska, you make this super public, you could have a win for both sides, but the reality is Russia just isn't there yet. And I don't blame them, because they just don't have the pressure put on them by the. The United States and Europe that would really force them to the negotiating table. And so I think that meeting in Alaska was probably premature, and it just didn't look great because nothing really came of it.

[B]

What would you say to people who say, you at least have to try to talk first?

[C]

Of course you do, but you also have to understand what both sides are looking for. And you have to make sure that there's some sort of mutual place where these two sides can meet, where Russia could potentially walk away feeling that it hasn't lost, which I think is very important for Putin and Russia, but also that Zelensky and Ukraine can walk away being able to go back to their people and say, maybe we had to make some concessions, but it was the betterment of Ukraine. It was for the Ukrainian society and the future of a Ukrainian nation. But the problem is time. As I said before, time is really still on Russia's side. And so Putin has no incentive at this moment to really come to the negotiating table and end things because the war is going well for him. And that's, I think, the, at the end of the day, the most important thing to understand.

[B]

And what's your take on the concession that President Trump seems to think that Ukraine should have to give, which is like providing land to Russia, and that Russia is saying it, it has to be able to take some land.

[A]

But then I've heard that experts are.

[B]

Worried that if you give a little, then Putin is going to think he can start taking over all NATO countries. What's your take on whether or not Ukraine should give up some land?

[C]

I think that the reality, the very difficult reality is that Ukraine is not going to get all of its land back and it will have to make some territorial concessions, whether that's just Crimea, whether that's the eastern part of Ukraine that is currently occupied by Russia. But this is herein lies the rub, which is if Ukraine is going to do that, then it better get some pretty serious security guarantees from the west, whether that's turning Ukraine into a steel porcupine, as people call it, which means it is so armed to the teeth that is totally undigestible to further Russian aggression, whether it has air defenses that are supplied by the United States and Europe, you know, long range strike capabilities. These are all conversations that we still have to have. But I think the reality is that Ukraine is probably going to have to make some sort of territorial concession at this point.

[B]

What's the effectiveness of President Trump using sanctions on Russia and other countries that aren't following those sanctions? Has that been effective and do you expect that to continue?

[C]

I expect it to continue. And no, it has not been effective. It has not been effective to a point where the Russian economy is squeezed to an extent that Russia cannot continue this war. It's getting support from China, it's getting support from North Korea, and it is still able to sell energy to other countries. Including those countries, some countries in Europe, including India. The costs that the west is imposing on Russia are not expensive enough, as you could say, where Russia really feels the need to come to the negotiating table. Now, we've seen Trump on Truth Social earlier this week say that he's ready to strengthen sanctions against Russia to really tighten that lever. But what he wants from the Europeans is to get them to stop buying Russian energy. And so I think this is a conversation that's going to happen going forward.

[B]

One of the things we've seen most recently is drones crossing the Ukraine border into NATO territory. We've seen Poland and Romania. What do you think is going on there?

[C]

Well, it depends on who you talk to. I mean, some people will say, ah, this was maybe an accident. I do not think this was an accident where you accidentally send 19 drones deep into Polish territory and NATO air defenses or NATO jets have to bring them down. I think this was a way for Putin to test alliance unity. I think it's a way for him to test the West. I don't know that there is any sort of real military response that NATO can provide besides what it has already done, which is beefing up patrols in the area and making it clear that incursions like this, be they on purpose or accidental, will not go unnoticed or potentially in the future unpunished. So I think NATO has made a good first step. But if things like this keep happening and Putin really keeps testing, then I think the response needs to be stronger and smarter. And I have questions on whether or not NATO will be able to do that as an alliance. But I'm very confident that individual NATO countries would be able to respond in a meaningful way.

[A]

Coming up, could this war spiral into something even bigger with more NATO involvement? And how does all of this impact Americans? That's coming up. But first, a break for our sponsors. I'd like to know that the supplements I'm taking are backed by science. That's why I was interested in fatty 15. And it's become something I look forward.

[B]

To taking every day.

[A]

Fatty 15 is built around C15, the first essential fatty acid discovered in over 90 years. It was identified by a scientist working with the US Navy to improve the health of aging dolphins. And now it's helping people, too. More than 100 studies help to show that C15 helps strengthen cells and keep in mind when our cells age, our bodies do too well. Fatty 15 is said to repair age related damage to cells, protects them from future breakdown, and activates pathways in the body that help regulate sleep, mood and natural repair mechanisms that support overall health. And unlike fish oil, which always has left me with A strong aftertaste, Fatty 15 is one small vegan capsule with no flavor and no fillers.

[B]

It's an easy habit that fits right into my day.

[A]

Fatty15 is on a mission to optimize your C15 levels to help you live healthier longer. You can get an additional 15% off their 90 day subscription starter kit by going to fatty15.comnewsworthy and using code Newsworthy at checkout. The Newsworthy is also brought to you by Haya's Children's Vitamins Every parent knows how hard it can be to start healthy habits with kids, but in our house, Haya made it easy. My 4 year old takes his vitamins and probiotics every day and and he actually looks forward to it. He loves the taste and for me it's nice to see him building a healthy ritual he's excited about. Unlike most children's vitamins that are loaded with sugar and gummy additives, Hayya has zero sugar and zero junk. Just essential nutrients like vitamin D, B12C, zinc and folate plus a blend of organic fruits and veggies. Haya is formulated with pediatricians. It's vegan, allergy free and third party tested so I know they're safe and effective. And are you tired of battling with your kids to eat their greens? Well Hahiya now has Kids Daily Greens plus Superfoods, a chocolate flavored greens powder designed specifically for kids packed with over 55 whole food ingredients to support brain power development and digestion. Just scoop, shake and sip with milk or any non dairy beverage for a delicious and nutritious boost your kids will actually enjoy. And we've worked out a special deal with Haya for their best selling children's vitamin. Receive 50% off your first order. To claim this deal you must go to Hiyahealth.com Newsworthy to this deal is not available on their regular website so go to hyahealth h I y a h e a l t h.com newsworthy and get your kids the full body nourishment they need to grow into healthy adults. Now back to my conversation with Rachel Rizzo.

[B]

How concerned are you that this is going to escalate into a wider war?

[C]

This is the main issue or the main concern that many Western leaders have had when it comes to how involved they want to be in this war and what kind of material support they want to provide to Ukraine to continue fighting. Even the Biden administration they were very worried about inadvertent escalation, pushing Russia to a point where it felt like in its mind this was NATO getting directly involved. And therefore this has now blown up to a full on conflict between NATO and Russia. I don't think that Russia wants a war with NATO because the fact that NATO has now been around for 76 years and that deterrent effect has been in place to a point where Russia hasn't really tested NATO in very serious ways, I think shows that he takes NATO seriously and he takes the military strength of NATO seriously. So I'm not worried that this war will escalate into a full blown conflict between NATO and Russia.

[B]

What are you expecting next?

[A]

Or at least what are you watching for?

[C]

Basically what you want to do here when it comes to support for Ukraine, when it comes to Russia, you want to lengthen Ukraine's timeline, right? So you want to give them weapons, financial assistance, recovery funds to be able to keep it in the fight longer and strengthen its defense, defense industrial base to a point where it can really fend for itself and defend itself and we can help defend it. So you want to lengthen Ukraine's timeline at the same time you want to shorten Russia's timeline. You want to make sure that Putin knows that time isn't on his side and he doesn't have one, two, three more years ahead of him. So he better feel the pressure to come to the negotiating table. I don't know that I see anytime soon those two things coming together to a point where a ceasefire is anywhere within reach. And so my bet, if I was going, if I was a betting person, I would say that we would. We are still going to be having these conversations a year from now. I just don't think that there is a point that I can see any time in the near future where the conditions on the ground are met for both sides and we could see hostilities cease. So that's a dark outlook and I would love to be proven wrong. Like I would love to see a scenario where we can have a ceasefire in place and begin a peace process and end this war. And it's awful, but I just don't know that we're there.

[B]

Why should Americans care?

[C]

It's such a good question. Because militarily I totally understand that when you're looking at a map of the world and you're looking at the United States and then you look over at this medium sized country, Ukraine, all the way on the other side of the globe and you say to Americans, hey, you should care about the fact that this country's neighbor is invading it. And you should understand why the United States feels the need to provide military and financial support to this country. Like, I get why that is a tough order, but it's a much easier, I think a much easier message is to say if you allow bigger countries to invade smaller countries and completely squash democratic norms and democratic principles, and you allow authoritarians the land that they want, the political systems they want, that is not good for the United States and it's not good for our values. Whether you are on the left or whether you are on the right, I do think Europe should take more of a responsibility for the military outcome here. I certainly think that. And I actually think that the Trump administration has done a good job of pushing the Europeans here. But I do think that America does have a vested interest in the outcome of this war, certainly.

[A]

Thank you so much to Rachel Rizzo and the Atlantic Council for offering insights and analysis of this ongoing and evolving war. As always, we'll be back on Monday with the news you may have missed over the weekend. We keep you up to date on the latest happenings and interesting facts every Monday through Friday, all in just about 10 minutes. So join us again next week. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.