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National property values recorded their fourth consecutive monthly drop in July, slipping -0.3% to extend the quarterly decline to -1.0%. On this week's episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results. We explore the deepening North-South divide: while Auckland (-0.7% month) and Wellington (-0.8% month) continue to drag, Christchurch (+0.1%) and Dunedin (+0.2%) remain resilient, and Invercargill has surged to a new record median peak of $565,000 (+8.2% YoY).

The guys also discuss a tongue-in-cheek LinkedIn post by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod, which highlighted a statistical correlation between per-capita cow populations and house price growth. We explain why strong agricultural export returns are buffering rural centres like Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie, while urban service-driven economies lag under high interest rates and pre-election policy uncertainty.

Finally, we preview Wednesday's Q2 official labour market release following June's +0.1% filled jobs figure, evaluate why the unemployment rate could rise from 5.3% to 5.5% due to labour force expansion rather than mass layoffs, and review ANZ's July business confidence bounce.

This week we discuss:

July Home Value Index: Why national values fell -0.3% over the month and -1.0% over the quarter.
The North-South Divide: Auckland and Wellington value softness versus Christchurch (+3.6% YoY) and Dunedin (+3.3% YoY).
Invercargill's New Record: Why the southern city hit $565,000 alongside agricultural hubs Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie.
Satish Ranchhod’s Cow Post: How agricultural strength is directly supporting regional home values.
Labour Market Preview: Why a forecast unemployment rise to 5.5% reflects a growing workforce rather than job destruction.
Election Hesitation: How investor sentiment is cooling as buyers pause ahead of upcoming political tax debates.
Listener Feedback: Addressing a Spotify comment on Christchurch suburb competition and the OCR path.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.