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Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?

In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).

Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.

The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

This week we discuss:

Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.
Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.
Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).
Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.
Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.
Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.