Podcast
The NZ Property Market Podcast
Hosted by Cotality NZ · EN
Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
18episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Whangārei Market Insights, Peak Standoffs, and the Three Fix Strategies
Jun 1700:38:11Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson, owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market. With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemma provides an invaluable, boots-on-the-ground temperature check of the winterless north.Moving past the mainstream media's "boom or bust" narratives, Jemma explains why the current environment is actually a return to a "normal" market driven by fundamental life choices. We analyse the distinct activity occurring within the $650,000 to $750,000 sweet spot, expose the pricing standoff affecting properties purchased at the late-2021 peak, and break down the three clear interest rate fixing strategies currently emerging among New Zealand borrowers navigating the post-MPS landscape.This week we discuss:The Whangārei Sweet Spot: Why properties priced between $650,000 and $750,000 are seeing steady, healthy transaction volumes from regular families.The Million-Dollar Value Gap: Navigating the lack of quality stock in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 bracket and why overpriced listings are distorting buyer expectations.The Peak COVID Standoff: Why un-capitulated vendors who bought in late 2021 are stalling market velocity.Three Emerging Fixing Behaviours: 1. The Confident Can-Kickers: Rolling on 6-month fixes to capture short-term savings while waiting for geopolitical oil conflicts to settle. 2. The Long-Term Securers: Locking in 5-year terms to protect fragile household cash flows from further volatility. 3. The Risk Splitters: Tranching debt across 2 and 3-year terms to avoid total structural exposure.Why DTIs are Stalling: Why high bank test rates are capturing debt-to-income limits by default, leaving equity and deposits as the primary hurdles.Innovation in Commercial Lending: Real-world examples of Northland businesses navigating tight cash flows through clever asset diversification and labour hoarding.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →Investor Retreat, First Home Buyer Records, and the 1.0% GDP Reality Check
Jun 1500:37:26Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions, the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a decisive step back in the second quarter, dropping to a 22.4% market share as the compounding realities of tight yields, capital growth re-evaluations, and shifting political polls weigh on investor confidence.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down why first home buyers continue to defy gravity, capturing a near-record 28.5% market share. We also deliver regional deep dives into the shifting demographics of Hamilton, Tauranga, and Dunedin, preview the upcoming Q1 GDP metrics alongside Tuesday’s crucial Selected Price Indexes, and analyse how an economic slowdown across the ditch in Australia could quietly reshape New Zealand's net migration baseline.This week we discuss:The Investor Retraction: Why mortgaged investors have pulled back for two consecutive quarters, hitting a soft 22.4% market share in Q2 so far.First Home Buyers Target Records: Inside the relentless 28.5% market share run and the mechanics driving low-deposit entry pathways.Regional Centre Disruption: Analysing Tauranga’s equity-rich mover surge (33%) and a surprising jump in first-time buyers to 25%.The Dunedin Yield Matrix: Why gross student accommodation yields look attractive, but aging housing stock is widening the gap between gross and net returns.Net Migration Rebound: Tracking the steady climb back to 22,800 annual net arrivals and why high rental listings are keeping a ceiling on structural rent spikes.GDP vs. Selected Price Indexes: Previewing the consensus 1.0% Q1 GDP growth figure and explaining why Tuesday’s monthly inflation data holds the real key to the July OCR decision.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →The Flat May HVI and the Myth of the Auckland Townhouse Glut
Jun 800:45:32Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market. We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.This week we discuss:May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →FHBs are still dominant - launching the latest Cotality-Westpac Report
May 7Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →The Cotality Home Value Index (Property Academy republish)
Jan 4Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this episode of the NZ Property Market Podcast we republish in full the Property Academy podcast, from OPES Partners where Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall made a guest appearance to discuss the intricacies of the Cotality Home Value Index.Along with hosts Ed McKnight and Andrew Nichol, Nick delves into the revolutionary hedonic index, which uses regression modelling to estimate property values based on various characteristics. The conversation highlights key factors influencing property value, such as floor area, location, and the impact of renovations. Listeners gain insights into what truly adds value to properties and how understanding these elements can aid in making informed investment decisions.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →FHBs still strong - launching the second co-branded Cotality and Westpac Report
Nov 11Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This special guest episode launches the latest joint research by Cotality and Westpac, looking at first home buyers.Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, is joined by Westpac's Senior Economist, Satish Ranchhod to discuss the latest report, including the broader macroeconomic and interest rate environment.They then move into the detail of FHB activity, including % market share (by region and price bracket), types of properties bought, prices paid, LVRs, average age, and also a medium term outlook.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →The inaugural co-branded Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report!
May 29, 2025Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special guest episode of the NZ Property Market Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Satish Ranchhod discuss the inaugural co-branded Cotality Westpac NZ First Home Buyer Report.They explore the current economic landscape for first home buyers, key insights from the report, demographic trends, and the future outlook for the housing market.The conversation highlights the resilience of first home buyers in the market, the impact of interest rates on affordability, and the changing demographics of buyers.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →We are Cotality
Mar 24, 2025Tap to summarizeSend us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A very special announcement...Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
Transcribe →