Podcast Summary: The Opinions (NYT Opinion)

Episode: After a Big Loss, What to Expect From Trump at the State of the Union
Release Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Steve Stromberg
Guests: Emily Bazelon (NYT Opinion writer, Yale Law School), Binyamin Applebaum (NYT Opinion writer)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Opinions explores the Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down many of President Trump’s tariffs, the implications for U.S. trade policy and presidential authority, and how this shapes Trump's approach heading into the State of the Union. The panel—Steve Stromberg, Emily Bazelon, and Binyamin (Binya) Applebaum—dissect the legal, economic, and political ramifications, the power struggle between branches, and what to anticipate from Trump’s response on the national stage.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Supreme Court Decision on Trump’s Tariffs

(Starting ~00:59)

• Legal Context:

  • The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 (including three conservatives) against Trump’s use of the IEIPA statute for broad tariff powers.
  • The ruling is notable for showing judicial independence from Trump, rejecting accusations of a court simply “doing Trump’s bidding.”
  • Emily Bazelon:

    "The overarching message here, I think, is really important for the accusation that the Supreme Court has just, like, turned into a bunch of hacks who do whatever Trump wants. This seems like a pretty clear response to that." (03:20)

  • The decision aligns with earlier Supreme Court limits on presidential emergency powers, including rejections against Biden’s Covid/student loan actions.

• Legal Nuance:

  • Justice Kavanaugh’s dissent points out that there is a textual argument in Trump’s favor, but the majority’s reading is seen as legally stronger.

2. Economic and Diplomatic Impact

(04:22–09:43)

• Limits of the Ruling:

  • Applebaum notes that while the ruling is garnering attention, its practical economic effects may be limited as Trump can still impose tariffs under other statutes:

    "The general orientation of American trade policy has not changed as a result of this ruling... it's the same story that it was the day before the ruling." (03:53)

  • New statutes require more process and cap tariffs (e.g., a 15% maximum in some cases).
  • The ruling may disrupt trade deals, with the EU and Asian countries reconsidering their concessions to the U.S., but likely to lead to renegotiation rather than collapse.

• Loss of a Diplomatic Tool:

  • The IEIPA tariffs allowed Trump to use tariffs as a broad, discretionary tool for foreign policy leverage. The Supreme Court has now boxed him in, with other statutes being more process- and limit-bound.

    "He used it for any reason...to demand foreign policy concessions on every continent. And he doesn't have it anymore." (11:39 – Applebaum)

3. The Court’s Message to Congress & Institutional Balance

(12:42–14:17)

• Calling Congress to Action:
  • The majority and Gorsuch’s concurrence underscore the legislative branch’s primacy in taxation and spending, nudging Congress to reclaim lost authority.

    "It can be tempting to bypass Congress...but the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the whole point of its design." (12:51 – Bazelon quoting Gorsuch)

  • Congress’ long-standing reluctance to check presidential power is highlighted, along with partisan incentives (risking Trump’s wrath versus acting as the ‘first branch’).

4. Political Ramifications & Congressional Decision-Making

(14:37–17:50)

• Partisan Dynamics:
  • The Republican-controlled Congress faces “misaligned incentives” to oppose Trump (fear of his base/challenges vs. economic realities of unpopular tariffs).
  • As costs and unpopularity mount, there could be “building pressure” for congressional Republicans to resist tariffs, particularly as the midterms approach and if Trump becomes more of a political liability.

5. Presidential Power & State of the Union Expectations

(17:50–22:36)

• What Will Trump Say?

  • Panelists expect Trump to “double down” on tariffs and present setbacks as establishment resistance, consistent with his style:

    "He is going to make a full throated case for the importance of tariffs and double down on it and brag about it, because that is everything consistent with his character." (18:38 – Applebaum)

  • Tension may play out live if Trump targets the justices in attendance. Bazelon predicts potential “spicy performance” and public escalation of Trump’s grievances.

• On Trump vs. the Supreme Court:

  • The panel distinguishes between routine presidential criticisms of the court and Trump’s pattern of questioning its legitimacy for disagreeing with him:

    "He is questioning the legitimacy of the court. Disagreeing with him about policy." (21:48 – Applebaum)

6. Democratic Strategy and Tariffs

(22:58–26:17)

• Democrats’ Dilemma:

  • The Democratic Party remains divided and uncertain on tariffs, as skepticism about globalization/trade policy runs across both parties.
  • Democrats are finding traction focusing on affordability and the cost of living, attacking Trump’s tariffs as exacerbating problems, but lack a coherent replacement economic vision.

    "Where they are making hay is on affordability...the cost of living in the United States is going up...and that the government isn't just failing to help, but under Donald Trump is actively making things worse." (24:07 – Applebaum)

• Tariffs as a Partial Solution:

  • Bazelon frames Trump’s tariff policy:

    "It's a bad answer to a real insight...globalization and the kind of free trade...left out lots of Americans, right? Especially in the parts of the country that previously had a lot of factory industrial jobs..." (25:12)

7. Automation, AI, and the Future of Work

(26:17–30:31)

• Trade vs. Automation:

  • Automation, not just trade, is identified as a key driver in loss of manufacturing jobs. The panel warns that the looming AI disruption may soon impact white-collar sectors—potentially on a much larger scale.

    "The biggest thing we need to address is this automation conversation, and which is really, you know...still not a part of the mainstream political conversation." (27:24 – Applebaum)

• Government’s Role in Regulating Change:

  • Urges policymakers to proactively consider how to manage the pace of technological disruption—to protect jobs and decide what should be human-led by societal choice:

    "One way of thinking about the role of government economically is that it gets to regulate the pace of change...it really matters how quickly people lose their jobs, how quickly we transition to new technologies..." (29:14 – Applebaum)

8. Final Reflections

(30:31–31:34)

• On Political Readiness for Change:
  • Bazelon and Applebaum express concern that the political conversation is not catching up with the accelerating pace of tech and labor disruption:

    "It just feels to me like this huge, huge gathering storm that we haven't really seriously started to grapple with." (30:34 – Bazelon)

Notable Quotes

• Emily Bazelon:

  “…the Supreme Court has just…turned into a bunch of hacks who do whatever Trump wants. This seems like a pretty clear response to that.” (03:20)

• Binyamin Applebaum:

  "He used it [IEIPA] for any reason...and he doesn't have it anymore." (11:39)

  "My expectation is that he is going to make a full throated case for the importance of tariffs and double down on it and brag about it...” (18:38)

  "The biggest thing we need to address is this automation conversation...still not a part of the mainstream political conversation." (27:24)

• Emily Bazelon (quoting Justice Gorsuch):

  "It can be tempting to bypass Congress...but the deliberative nature of the legislative process was the whole point of its design." (12:51)

Important Timestamps

• 00:59 — Start of content/conversation
• 01:39 — Emily Bazelon’s legal top-line on the ruling
• 03:53 — Applebaum: Economic impact limited
• 06:36 — The 15% global tariff statute
• 09:48 — Why U.S. trade policy has historically favored cheap imports
• 11:14 — Trump loses discretionary tariff tool
• 12:42–14:17 — Congress urged to reclaim legislative authority
• 18:34 — What will Trump say at the State of the Union?
• 21:48 — Trump’s delegitimization of court’s authority
• 24:07 — Democrats’ affordability message
• 27:24 — Main issue: Automation, not just trade
• 30:34 — Final thoughts on the pace of economic change

Tone & Style

Throughout the discussion, the panel mixes in humor and sharp wit, balancing legal analysis with accessible political commentary. Bazelon and Applebaum frequently ground their points in concrete examples and historical context, speaking frankly about both their uncertainty regarding the future and the nuances of separation of powers.

Conclusion

This episode offers a nuanced analysis of the Supreme Court’s tariff decision—its constraints on Trump, the message to Congress, limited economic impact, and political ripple effects as the State of the Union approaches. The conversation closes by warning that bigger challenges—automation and AI’s impact on work and society—remain unaddressed, urging policymakers to catch up with the rapidly changing landscape.