Podcast Summary: The Opinions – America's Next Story: Bret Stephens

Host: David Leonhardt
Guest: Bret Stephens
Date: December 15, 2025

Main Theme

This episode wraps up the "America's Next Story" series by diving into the evolving story of American conservatism. Editorial director David Leonhardt interviews NYT columnist Bret Stephens, a self-described traditional conservative who feels politically homeless in the era of Trump-dominated Republicanism. Together, they explore whether the next election could see a rebirth of a more optimistic, Reagan-like conservative vision—or further entrenchment of Trumpist pessimism and illiberalism. The conversation touches on immigration, the role of “Normie Republicans,” political storytelling, and prospects for both parties in 2028.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bret Stephens’ Political Evolution

• Stephens uses the old line: “I didn’t leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me,” likening his journey to those Democrats who became Reagan conservatives.
  • Quote: “I guess I'm in transition, is one answer. ... I didn't leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me.” (Bret Stephens, 02:13)

2. The End of the Reagan Era

• The hosts agree that the “Reagan era” in US politics has ended, replaced by a darker, more pessimistic vision among conservatives.
  • Stephens argues current conservatism is marked by “illiberalism,” a style more akin to European traditions than positive, future-oriented American conservatism.
  • Quote: “The conservatism that Trump expresses, I think is better classified as illiberalism... a dark vision of the future, the future of the free world, a real pessimism or doubt about whether liberal societies can succeed.” (Bret Stephens, 03:44)

3. Trumpian Pessimism and Its Appeal

• Failures of Reaganism:
  • Leonhardt suggests Reaganite conservatism failed to produce broad-based increases in living standards, making room for Trump's pessimism.
  • Quote: “I don't think that Reaganite conservatism delivered on what it promised in terms of broad based, consistent increases in Americans living standards.” (David Leonhardt, 05:15)
• Why Trump Resonated:
  • Stephens acknowledges Trump’s appeal to those let down by elite institutions and unchecked migration—issues Stephens admits he underestimated.
  • Quote: “Trump was onto something in a way that I was simply blind to because I think I was encased in a cultural bubble.” (Bret Stephens, 07:28)

4. Migration & the Conservative Dilemma (08:13–10:46)

• Stephens advocates for recognizing both upsides and “real downsides” of mass migration, including stressed social services and perceived lawlessness.
  • Quote: “There are downsides... Many [migrants] depended on social services, which were overwhelmed. Look at what happened in New York, Chicago, Boston and other cities...” (Bret Stephens, 09:14)
• He calls for immigration reform: “really strict controls over the border with a very generous legal immigration and asylum policy.” (Bret Stephens, 10:27)

5. Imagining a Post-Trump Republican Party (10:46–13:01)

• Stephens sees hope in “Normie Republicans” who could back rational, pragmatic policies but laments that loud, polarizing voices control the party for now.
  • Quote: “At some point, I just have to assume or hope, wish that when the Republican Party has exhausted the available alternatives, they will see their way towards some kind of more sensible attitude towards immigration.” (Bret Stephens, 11:45)

6. Mistakes of Moderate Conservatives (13:01–14:55)

• He admits to a “derisive, holier than thou moralistic attitude” towards concerns over immigration, which hindered dialogue.
• Republicans, he argues, are locked in a cultural “existential struggle” with Democrats, perceiving them as anti-American.
  • Quote: “It would help a lot to see... the Bill Clinton wing of the Democratic Party, reassert itself... Which is why... I often find myself offering advice to Democrats like, please move to the center. And not least to save the Republican Party from the kind of xenophobic bigotry that has overtaken it.” (Bret Stephens, 14:11)

7. The Case for a Centrist Democratic Party (14:55–16:53)

• Stephens argues a moderate Democratic Party would not just win more, but force the GOP to moderate as well.
• He challenges the view that only bold progressive politics energizes and wins, pointing to centrist Democrats’ successes.
  • Quote: “…outside of the progressive bubbles, the winning tickets for Democrats are all at the center.” (Bret Stephens, 17:28)

8. Global Models & the Center-Right (18:16–21:03)

• Searching for international hope, Stephens points to Italian PM Giorgia Meloni—who combines populist rhetoric with pragmatic governance—as a possible model.
  • Quote: "She’s been particularly persuasive… that ability to talk populist and govern pragmatic... I would say that's probably the right prescription." (Bret Stephens, 20:01)

9. 2028 Political Projections (21:26–24:49)

• Stephens predicts J.D. Vance as likely GOP nominee, based on his savvy opportunism—contrasted to Vance's former anti-Trump stance.
  • Quote: “I find it difficult to conceive that J.D. vance isn't the nominee. J.D. is very clever, very opportunistic...” (Bret Stephens, 21:46)
• He’s optimistic about a strong field of centrist Democrats, hoping the party seizes the moment to reject Trumpism decisively.

10. Deep Pessimism versus American Optimism (24:49–28:59)

• Leonhardt voices concern about societal division, isolation, and trust in institutions, asking Stephens how to avoid despair.
• Stephens responds with historical perspective, citing the post-Vietnam 1970s as an era of even greater pessimism, but one America ultimately overcame.
  • Quote: “The paradox of open societies is that in a democracy, you focus obsessively on everything that's going wrong... But it also means that we are trying to address those problems, however imperfectly.” (Bret Stephens, 26:44)
  • Quote: "There's nothing wrong with America that can't be cured by what's right in America. I think it's a beautiful phrase and I think it has the virtue of being true." (Bret Stephens, 28:45)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Trumpian Conservatism:

  • “The conservatism that Trump expresses... is better classified as illiberalism... there's a kind of a dark vision of the future.” (Bret Stephens, 03:44)

• On Party Identity:

  • "I didn't leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me." (Bret Stephens, 02:13)

• On Immigration Policy:

  • "I would love to see genuine immigration reform that combines really strict controls over the border with a very generous legal immigration and asylum policy." (Bret Stephens, 10:27)

• On Democrats and Party Centering:

  • "It would help a lot to see a Democrat... reassert itself in a way that that caricature doesn't resonate quite as much... please move to the center. And not least to save the Republican Party from the kind of xenophobic bigotry that has overtaken it." (Bret Stephens, 14:11)

• On American Resilience:

  • "The nature of democracy is that we are problem obsessed, but it also means that we are trying to address those problems, however imperfectly." (Bret Stephens, 26:44)

• On American Optimism:

  • “There's nothing wrong with America that can't be cured by what's right in America.” (Bret Stephens, 28:45; quoting Bill Clinton)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:13: Stephens describes his political transition
• 03:44: End of the Reagan era and rise of conservative pessimism
• 07:28–08:13: Why Trump's pessimism resonates; failures of elite institutions
• 09:14–10:27: On the downsides of mass migration
• 13:01: Failings and mistakes of moderate conservatives
• 14:11: Why Democrats should move to the center
• 17:28: Center versus progressive wings in Democratic electoral success
• 20:01: Giorgia Meloni as a center-right pragmatic model
• 21:46–24:00: Predictions for the 2028 GOP and Democratic fields
• 26:44: Stephens on the "problem obsession" of democracies
• 28:45: Wrap-up with a Clinton quote on American optimism

Conclusion

This conversation offers a clear-eyed yet hopeful look at the future of American conservatism and political moderation. While pessimism about current trends in both parties is palpable, Stephens argues history teaches that American democracy’s self-critical instincts, “however imperfectly,” enable eventual course correction. The right blend of pragmatic leadership, centrist policymaking, and optimism could—eventually—revive the political ideals both Leonhardt and Stephens believe once united the country.