How Trump’s ‘Favorite President’ Can Prepare Us for His Next Term

Summary

Podcast Summary: "How Trump’s ‘Favorite President’ Can Prepare Us for His Next Term"

The Opinions by The New York Times Opinion, released on January 14, 2025, delves into the implications of Donald Trump's admiration for Argentina's newly elected president, Javier Milei, and what this could signal for a potential second Trump term in the United States. The episode features insightful commentary from Michelle Goldberg, a prominent opinion columnist at The New York Times.

---

Introduction and Context

The episode opens with a brief introduction to the show’s focus on opinion and analysis, swiftly transitioning to Michelle Goldberg's exploration of the political landscape as Donald Trump approaches a possible second inauguration.

Rise of Javier Milei: Trump's Favorite President

Michelle Goldberg discusses the election of Javier Milei as Argentina's president in November 2023, highlighting Trump's endorsement of Milei as his "favorite president" (01:18). Milei is portrayed as a polarizing figure who resonates with the MAGA movement, embodying a provocative and unorthodox populist style reminiscent of Trump.

Notable Quote:

"Javier Milei was elected... a Trump-like figure... vulgar and provocative populist with wild hair who was sort of a shock to the system." (01:25)

Comparison with Other Populist Leaders

Goldberg contrasts Milei with other leaders admired in Trump’s circle, such as Viktor Orban of Hungary. While Orban promotes state-sponsored social conservatism, Milei represents an extreme libertarian approach.

Notable Quote:

"One is about expanding the state... In Argentina, you see something very different." (03:10)

Milei’s Economic Policies and Libertarian Ideology

Milei’s governance is characterized by drastic economic reforms aimed at combating hyperinflation through significant government spending cuts and deregulation. His policies include:

• Slashing government spending by approximately 30%.
• Advocating for near-total deregulation, including controversial proposals like the legal sale of human organs.
• Redefining marriage as a private contract without state involvement.

Goldberg emphasizes that Milei’s approach marks a return to classical laissez-faire economics, contrasting with the previous populist trends seen in the Republican Party.

Notable Quote:

"It's very old fashioned laissez faire small government deregulation... a sort of economics of Republicans like Paul Ryan." (04:45)

Impact on the U.S. Republican Party

The episode examines how Milei’s rise reflects a broader shift within the Republican Party towards austerity and deficit reduction. Influential figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are cited as proponents of these austerity measures, advocating for significant cuts in government spending.

Notable Quote:

"Musk, who has argued that Americans need to accept... temporary hardship to reduce spending." (06:15)

Goldberg suggests that this new inclination towards cost-cutting could result in markedly different policies in a second Trump administration compared to his first term, potentially leading to aggressive dismantling of social welfare programs.

Implications for Social Safety Nets

Goldberg warns of the potential repercussions for America's social safety nets if the austerity trends seen in Argentina are mirrored in the United States. Programs such as Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, and food stamps could face severe reductions or eliminations.

Notable Quote:

"We could see... real damage to the social safety net, real damage to Medicaid, to the Affordable Care Act." (07:50)

Political and Electoral Consequences

The episode also explores the fragile coalition supporting Trump, which includes affluent plutocrats and struggling working-class voters. Goldberg posits that aggressive austerity measures may alienate this base, leading to instability within the Republican Party and potential electoral setbacks.

Notable Quote:

"The coalition... could end up proving pretty unstable if the people... end up getting Milei style austerity instead." (08:20)

Conclusion: Challenges Ahead

Michelle Goldberg concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump's ideological stance and the potential challenges a second term might face. She compares the impending political shifts to a "tidal wave," suggesting that opposition parties may need to brace for significant changes to protect their values and programs.

Notable Quote:

"It's like waiting for a tidal wave to hit and knowing that even if some of what you value can be salvaged, a lot of it's going to be washed away." (08:30)

---

This episode of The Opinions provides a comprehensive analysis of how the rise of Javier Milei as a favored figure by Trump could influence U.S. politics, particularly within the Republican Party, and the broader implications for American socio-economic policies.

Transcript

[Josh Haner]

Hi, I'm Josh Haner and I'm a staff photographer at the New York Times covering climate change. For years, we've sort of imagined this picture of a polar bear floating on a piece of ice. Those have been the images associated with climate change. My challenge is to find stories that show you how climate change is affecting our world right now. If you want to support the kind of journalism that we're working on here on the climate and environment desk at the New York Times, please subscribe on our website or our app.

[Unknown Host]

This is the Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.

[Michelle Goldberg]

My name is Michelle Goldberg. I'm an opinion columnist at the New York Times, where I typically write about politics and culture. We're just days away from Donald Trump's second inauguration, and as I've been thinking about the ways that a second Trump presidency will be different from the first, especially in terms of policy, I've been thinking a lot about the rise in Trump world of the President of Argentina.

[Unknown Host]

A very special congratulations to Javier Milei on a great race for President of.

[Michelle Goldberg]

Argentina, who Trump calls his favorite president and who has growing currency on the maga. Right.

[Unknown Host]

You will turn your country around and truly make Argentina great again.

[Michelle Goldberg]

Javier Milei was elected in November of 2023. He's a Trump like figure in that he's a you, you know, kind of vulgar and provocative populist with wild hair who was sort of a shock to the system. And there are many different foreign leaders who are admired in Trump world for a long time. The typical one was Viktor Orban in Hungary. Many people around Trump saw Hungary with its, you know, strong state sponsored social conservatism as a sort of model for the American right. And then there's Milei. And I think what makes Milei unique is that he is an extreme libertarian. He has slashed government spending by about 30% to combat hyperinflation in Argentina. He believes in almost total deregulation, except for abortion. He's very anti abortion, but other than that, he wants, you know, almost total deregulation, including allowing the buying and selling of human organs. You know, he believes that the state kind of has no role in marriage, that it should just be a contract between two people. And so although in some ways the, the bluster and the swagger of, say, a Malay and a Viktor Orban might seem similar, they actually have very, very different views of governing. One is about expanding the state, using it to foster a Certain set of moral values. You know, in Hungary, a huge part of the state budget goes towards attempts to promote childbearing. In Argentina, you see something very different. The Malay vision, in some ways is a return to the sort of economics of Republicans like Paul Ryan that many people thought Donald Trump had displaced. It's very old fashioned laissez faire small government deregulation, which was the kind of Republican economic policy that had proved pretty unpopular in the past and that a lot of people thought that Trump style populism had supplanted. So what we're seeing, especially with the rise of Elon Musk and some of the figures around him, is just a new mania for cost cutting, for deficit reduction, for shrinking the federal government. That could give us very different policy in the second Trump administration than in the first one. So in the American rights admiration for Milei, you can see the rebirth of old fashioned small government conservatism in feral tech pro form. You see it in Elon Musk, who has argued that Americans need to accept, quote, unquote, temporary hardship to reduce spending. Vivek Ramaswamy, who called for Milei style cuts on steroids. Mike Lee, Republican senator from Utah, who has called Social Security a Ponzi scheme and called for real reform in a thread boosted by Musk. And you know, Donald Trump's own convictions are so unstable that it's difficult to tell what this means for his ideology. But what it does is it kind of gives a cultural reinforcement to tendencies that are already very strong in the Republican Party. Right. The Republican Party lives to cut taxes and to try to cut social welfare spending. In the first Trump administration, there was just sort of less MAGA pressure to cut spending in as much as there's now this bullhorn with the world's richest man and kind of most powerful troll hammering this message day after day and actually being part of a government initiative to cut, quote, unquote, wasteful spending and to try to shrink government operations. There's just a lot more for going after the safety net. Milei remains quite popular in Argentina. Inflation there was genuinely out of control. And in slashing spending, he has brought it down. And so even though he's also driven up poverty, a lot of Argentinians have been willing to accept some level of shock therapy. We're not in the same situation in the United States. It remains to be seen whether Donald Trump and the people around him can inflict similar economic hardship on people without facing any sort of electoral consequences. In some ways, this new MAGA lionization of Austerity economics bodes ill for the programs that liberals want to protect. I think that we could see, you know, real damage to the social safety net, real damage to Medicaid, to the Affordable Care act, to the food stamp programs. At the same time, these kind of politics are likely to be pretty unpopular. And the coalition that you now see behind Donald Trump, which includes these extraordinarily powerful plutocrats and a lot of struggling working class voters, could end up proving pretty unstable if the people who thought they were voting for a pro labor sort of conservatism end up getting Malay style austerity instead. There's no way to really prepare for what's coming if you're opposed to this agenda. It's like waiting for a tidal wave to hit and knowing that even if some of what you value can be salvaged, a lot of it's going to be washed away.

[Unknown Host]

If you like this show, follow it on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. This show is produced by Derek Arthur, Sophia Alvarez, Boyd, Vishaka Durba, Phoebe Lett, Christina Samulewski, and Gillian Weinberger. It's edited by Kari Pitkin, Alison Bruzek, and Annie Rose Strasser. Engineering, mixing and original music by Isaac Jones, sonia Herrero, Pat McCusker, Carol Saburo and Afim Shapiro. Additional music by Amin Sahota. The Fact Check team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker and Michelle Harris. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta, Christina Samulewski, and Adrian Rivera. The executive producer of Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose.