Hungary Shows Us How a Second Trump Term Might Play Out

Mon Nov 18 2024

Donald Trump has referred to Hungary’s autocratic prime minister, Viktor Orban, as “a great man, a great leader.” In this episode, the columnist M. Gessen, who is in exile from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, draws parallels between Trump, Orban and Putin. Gessen explores what life might look like in Trump’s next term and describes their fear that, this time, “people are going to retreat into their private lives and try to shut out the political world.”

Summary

Summary of "Hungary Shows Us How a Second Trump Term Might Play Out"

Podcast: The Opinions
Host/Author: The New York Times Opinion
Episode Release Date: November 18, 2024

Introduction and Context

In the episode titled "Hungary Shows Us How a Second Trump Term Might Play Out," opinion columnist Em Gessen delves into the parallels between Hungarian leader Viktor Orban's autocratic strategies and former U.S. President Donald Trump's political maneuvers. Drawing from his extensive knowledge of autocratic regimes and his interactions with Hungarian sociologist Baland Magyar, Gessen provides a comprehensive analysis of how Trump’s potential reelection could reshape American democracy.

Trump’s Rise and Autocratic Strategies

Gessen begins by reflecting on the aftermath of Trump's 2016 election victory. He shares personal anecdotes about how friends sought his guidance, leveraging his background in Russia and expertise in autocracy. This led to Gessen's influential essay, "Autocracy Rules for Survival," which has since established him as a prominent voice on the subject.

Notable Quote:

"In 2016, when Trump was first elected... I ended up writing an essay called Autocracy Rules for Survival, which I think has held up pretty well and established me as an autocracy expert."
(00:49)

Insights from Baland Magyar

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around Gessen's collaboration with Baland Magyar, a Hungarian sociologist who transitioned from a dissident during the Soviet era to a scholar of post-communist autocracy under Orban. Magyar provides critical insights into Orban's political trajectory, highlighting his strategic consolidation of power.

Key Points:

Orban’s Political Maneuvering: Orban was ousted from office in 2002 but returned eight years later by expanding his movement to present himself as the sole legitimate representative of the Hungarian people.
Autocratic Breakthrough: Magyar describes this phase as when an autocrat implements legal changes to solidify power, making it difficult to remove them from office.

Notable Quote:

"By the time he swept back into office with the parliamentary supermajority... he was poised to stage what Magyar calls an autocratic breakthrough."
(02:30)

Parallels Between Orban and Trump

Gessen draws direct comparisons between Orban's strategies and Trump's actions, particularly in their challenges to election legitimacy and their claims about opposing administrations.

Key Points:

Election Legitimacy: Both leaders have undermined the legitimacy of elections that do not favor them, with Trump labeling the Biden administration as illegitimate.
Motivations: While Trump is driven by vanity and the desire for power, he is equally motivated by greed and the accumulation of wealth, contrasting with traditional fascist ideologies.

Notable Quote:

"Trump, like Orban, consistently referred to the democratically elected Biden administration as illegitimate, as not representing the American people."
(05:10)

Difference Between Fascism and Autocracy

Addressing claims that Trump is a fascist, Gessen references Magyar’s perspective, which differentiates Trump’s autocratic tendencies from fascist ideology.

Key Points:

Lack of Ideological Drive: Unlike fascists, who are ideologically motivated, Trump’s actions are primarily driven by personal gain and greed.
Comparative Analysis: Magyar contrasts Trump with historical fascists like the Nazis, noting that autocrats like Orban and Putin prioritize wealth accumulation over ideological goals.

Notable Quote:

"Magyar thinks Trump is not a fascist because Trump is not ideologically driven and ideologues are not greedy."
(06:45)

Impact on American Democracy and Public Engagement

Gessen explores the potential societal consequences of a second Trump term, drawing lessons from authoritarian regimes.

Key Points:

Shift from Deliberation to Rule by Decree: Autocrats often bypass legislative processes, shifting from the "rule of law to the law of rule."
Public Disengagement: He fears that the second term might lead to a retreat from public political engagement, similar to authoritarianism, where citizens focus on private lives and disengage from politics.
Path to Totalitarianism: This disengagement could create a fertile ground for further autocratic consolidation, potentially leading to totalitarianism.

Notable Quotes:

"Magyar calls it going from the rule of law to the law of rule."
(07:50)

"The first term mobilized people in a lot of ways... I have a feeling that people are going to retreat into their private lives and try to shut out the political world."
(08:30)

Conclusion and Call to Action

Gessen concludes with a cautionary note, emphasizing the importance of sustained public engagement to prevent a slide into deeper authoritarianism. He urges listeners to remain vigilant and involved in the political process to safeguard democratic institutions.

Notable Quote:

"I hope people can pace themselves and still pay attention."
(09:00)

Closing Remarks

The episode effectively uses the Hungarian case as a mirror to understand the potential trajectory of American politics under Trump's leadership. Through insightful analysis and expert opinions, Gessen underscores the delicate balance between public engagement and disengagement in maintaining a healthy democracy.

For those interested in exploring the dynamics of autocracy and its parallels in the U.S., this episode offers a thought-provoking examination backed by scholarly insights and real-world examples.

Summary

Summary of "Hungary Shows Us How a Second Trump Term Might Play Out"

Podcast: The Opinions
Host/Author: The New York Times Opinion
Episode Release Date: November 18, 2024

Introduction and Context

Trump’s Rise and Autocratic Strategies

Notable Quote:

"In 2016, when Trump was first elected... I ended up writing an essay called Autocracy Rules for Survival, which I think has held up pretty well and established me as an autocracy expert."
(00:49)

Insights from Baland Magyar

Key Points:

Orban’s Political Maneuvering: Orban was ousted from office in 2002 but returned eight years later by expanding his movement to present himself as the sole legitimate representative of the Hungarian people.
Autocratic Breakthrough: Magyar describes this phase as when an autocrat implements legal changes to solidify power, making it difficult to remove them from office.

Notable Quote:

"By the time he swept back into office with the parliamentary supermajority... he was poised to stage what Magyar calls an autocratic breakthrough."
(02:30)

Parallels Between Orban and Trump

Gessen draws direct comparisons between Orban's strategies and Trump's actions, particularly in their challenges to election legitimacy and their claims about opposing administrations.

Key Points:

Election Legitimacy: Both leaders have undermined the legitimacy of elections that do not favor them, with Trump labeling the Biden administration as illegitimate.
Motivations: While Trump is driven by vanity and the desire for power, he is equally motivated by greed and the accumulation of wealth, contrasting with traditional fascist ideologies.

Notable Quote:

"Trump, like Orban, consistently referred to the democratically elected Biden administration as illegitimate, as not representing the American people."
(05:10)

Difference Between Fascism and Autocracy

Addressing claims that Trump is a fascist, Gessen references Magyar’s perspective, which differentiates Trump’s autocratic tendencies from fascist ideology.

Key Points:

Lack of Ideological Drive: Unlike fascists, who are ideologically motivated, Trump’s actions are primarily driven by personal gain and greed.
Comparative Analysis: Magyar contrasts Trump with historical fascists like the Nazis, noting that autocrats like Orban and Putin prioritize wealth accumulation over ideological goals.

Notable Quote:

"Magyar thinks Trump is not a fascist because Trump is not ideologically driven and ideologues are not greedy."
(06:45)

Impact on American Democracy and Public Engagement

Gessen explores the potential societal consequences of a second Trump term, drawing lessons from authoritarian regimes.

Key Points:

Shift from Deliberation to Rule by Decree: Autocrats often bypass legislative processes, shifting from the "rule of law to the law of rule."
Public Disengagement: He fears that the second term might lead to a retreat from public political engagement, similar to authoritarianism, where citizens focus on private lives and disengage from politics.
Path to Totalitarianism: This disengagement could create a fertile ground for further autocratic consolidation, potentially leading to totalitarianism.

Notable Quotes:

"Magyar calls it going from the rule of law to the law of rule."
(07:50)

"The first term mobilized people in a lot of ways... I have a feeling that people are going to retreat into their private lives and try to shut out the political world."
(08:30)

Conclusion and Call to Action

Notable Quote:

"I hope people can pace themselves and still pay attention."
(09:00)

Closing Remarks

For those interested in exploring the dynamics of autocracy and its parallels in the U.S., this episode offers a thought-provoking examination backed by scholarly insights and real-world examples.