The Opinions – NYT Opinion
Episode: ‘If You Don’t Want This Consequence, Don’t Vote for Republicans’
Date: October 4, 2025
Host/Moderator: David French
Guests: Jamelle Bouie, Michelle Goldberg
Overview
This episode unpacks the U.S. government shutdown of October 2025, digging into the political dynamics, tactical decisions, and deeper systemic dysfunctions in Congress that led to it. With Republicans controlling every branch of government and Democrats in the minority, the roundtable scrutinizes the logic, consequences, and messaging misfires behind recent actions. The conversation loops in the roles of Donald Trump, polarized party bases, the broken “feedback mechanisms” in democratic accountability, and a harsh critique of Democratic leadership.
“You've heard the news. Here’s what to make of it.”
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Immediate Reactions & Context ([01:25]–[03:49])
- Democrats’ Dilemma: Michelle Goldberg argues Democrats had “no choice but to shut down the government” though their messaging is muddled and ineffective.
“I do think that their messaging has been sort of weak and incoherent and I don’t have super high hopes for them actually accomplishing anything significant.” — Michelle Goldberg [01:59]
- Strategic Weakness: Jamelle Bouie criticizes Democrats for “small ball” tactics—focusing on healthcare subsidies rather than drawing a red line over executive overreach.
“[Turning] this into negotiation over healthcare subsidies in addition to feeling just small ball and non-reactive to what people actually care about...” — Jamelle Bouie [02:16]
2. The Shutdown as a Symptom of Congressional Dysfunction ([05:21]–[08:50])
- Collapse of Regular Order: Congress no longer functions through normal budgeting; dependence on continuing resolutions breeds brinkmanship.
- Partisan and Ideological Polarization: The lack of a “flexible middle” suppresses compromise.
“The deterioration of Congress’s capacity to actually engage in traditional lawmaking... is downstream of the kind of hard-nosed congressional politics that emerged with Gingrich in the late 80s and 90s.” — Jamelle Bouie [07:30]
3. Political Motivation and Messaging ([08:50]–[12:46])
- Failure to Articulate Rationale: Goldberg argues Democrats’ public statements feel “consultant-brained and focus-grouped” rather than honest about existential threats to democracy.
- Misaligned Priorities: Healthcare price spikes will be devastating, but Democrats’ approach “alights the issues” and fails to clearly link the crisis to Republican actions.
4. The Ironies and Paradoxes of Political Consequences ([12:15]–[16:03])
- Democrats Saving Republicans: Democrats are politically “begging” Republicans to let them avert consequences that will hurt GOP voters most.
“Democrats are basically begging Republicans to let the Democrats save them from the political consequences of their own ideology.” — Michelle Goldberg [12:15]
- Feedback Failure: No clear causal loop between voters’ choices and political outcomes.
“If he dies, he dies. Like, you know, if this is what happens, it’s what happens because you voted for Republicans and... this is the consequence.” — Jamelle Bouie [12:46]
- Cult of Trump: GOP voters’ feedback to leadership is distorted by tribalism and Trump’s personal brand.
5. The Strategy and Risks of Shutdown Politics ([16:03]–[19:57])
- Trump as “Force of Chaos”: David French likens Trump to “a rock [that] falls into a pond... then gets away with blaming the water for the splash.” [16:03]
- No Good Choices: Shutdown is dangerous for all, with real human hardship and unclear blame.
“There are no good options. When your country is in the midst of an authoritarian transformation, you sort of don’t have good options by definition.” — Michelle Goldberg [17:49]
- Agency and Blame: Media and party narratives often treat only Democrats as having agency, letting Republicans dodge responsibility. Goldberg insists Republicans have the power to end the shutdown unilaterally.
“Republicans have all of the power here. And yet... we always act as if only Democrats have agency.” — Michelle Goldberg [19:57]
6. Trump’s Approach—Provocation and Perception ([22:00]–[24:51])
- Provoking the Enemy: French suggests Trump baits opponents into unpopular responses, using examples like ICE. Bouie doubts the tactic’s effectiveness, arguing it tends to backfire by polarizing public opinion against Trump’s actions.
“He just doesn’t perceive himself as needing Congress. And so negotiations to Congress are just not a skill that he really has.” — Jamelle Bouie [21:50]
7. Democratic Messaging, Leadership, & The Attention Economy ([24:51]–[32:34])
- Algorithms & Attention: Right-wing content dominates social media feeds, and Democrats lag in adapting to media and messaging terrain.
“I don’t think that you can separate the algorithms... but then the other piece... is that Democrats have the wrong leaders.” — Michelle Goldberg [25:52]
- Leadership Vacuum: Schumer and others are relics of a more “norms-based” era and lack the skills for today’s polarized and performative politics.
“They’re not selected for articulating a set of principles, not backing down from them and picking fights around them.” — Jamelle Bouie [28:48]
- Vision Deficit: Democrats can seem “weak and woke”; voters are unsure what the party actually stands for.
“There’s also a fundamental thing that people say about Democrats, which is that they don’t know what they stand for.” — Michelle Goldberg [29:44]
8. Is the Democratic Party Too Rigid? ([30:35]–[32:34])
- French’s Counterpoint: Some on the right think Democrats are too ideologically homogenous.
- Goldberg’s Response: There’s room for local heterodoxy, but the main critique is lack of a “cohesive vision” or credible promise to improve voters’ lives if given power.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “If you don’t want this consequence, don’t vote for Republicans.” — Jamelle Bouie [12:46]
- “We always act as if only Democrats have agency.” — Michelle Goldberg [19:57]
- “He’s just a widow, baby. I’m just a widow guy, and the Democrats aren’t playing ball with us. I’m never gonna do that voice again.” — Jamelle Bouie [24:04]
- “You want it to be one way, but it’s the other way.” — Jamelle Bouie (quoting The Wire) [27:27]
- “…this moment demands political creativity and a willingness to take risks, a willingness to pick fights.” — Jamelle Bouie [28:20]
- “When your country is in the midst of an authoritarian transformation, you sort of don’t have good options by definition.” — Michelle Goldberg [17:49]
Timestamps for Important Segments
| Time | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:25 | Introductions, overview of shutdown | | 01:59 | Michelle Goldberg: Democrats' lack of choice & weak hand | | 02:16 | Jamelle Bouie: Small ball negotiations & messaging critique| | 05:51 | Bouie on congressional dysfunction & breakdown of order | | 08:50 | Goldberg: What it means for Congress to “do something” | | 12:15 | Goldberg: Democrats “begging” Republicans on healthcare | | 12:46 | Bouie: Feedback mechanisms broken; “If he dies, he dies” | | 16:03 | French: Trump as chaos agent & blame game | | 19:57 | Agency and media framing: Democrats vs. Republicans | | 25:52 | Goldberg: Social algorithms, Schumer, party leadership | | 27:27 | Bouie: The Wire analogy; leadership for a new era | | 29:44 | Goldberg: Voters don’t know what Democrats stand for | | 30:35 | French: Are Democrats too ideologically rigid? | | 32:34 | Picks & Recommendations |
Picks & Recommendations ([32:34]–[37:05])
Jamelle Bouie recommends Katrina: A History, 1915–2015 by Andy Horowitz—a deep historical look at New Orleans, the Gulf Coast, and how disaster stems from human choices.
Michelle Goldberg praises Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film, One Battle After Another, adapted from Pynchon’s Vineland—an anti-fascist epic allegorizing the Trump era, “defiantly anti-fascist” and fearless in current cultural context.
David French calls Slow Horses (streaming series with Gary Oldman) “the best on TV,” praising its humor, acting, and thrilling spy plots.
Summary & Takeaways
- Systemic Dysfunction: The current shutdown is a byproduct of a long erosion in congressional practice and the absence of cross-party compromise.
- Messaging Crisis: Democrats still lack clear, forceful rhetoric and energetic leadership fit for a polarized, attention-hungry era.
- Political Consequence: The hoped-for feedback—that voters experience and then punish unpopular policies—doesn’t work as it should.
- Trump as Instigator: Trump’s governing style is built on provocation and shifting blame, further muddying accountability.
- The Real Challenge: Democrats, caught between small-ball tactics and an existential fight for democracy, are hamstrung by their attachment to older norms and the wrong leaders for the moment.
- Big Question: With accountability broken and public opinion so polarized, is there anything Democrats or their voters can do—besides simply “winning more elections”—to break the cycle?
For listeners looking to understand the government shutdown and its broader political and systemic context, this episode is a bracing, frank assessment—one that urges Democrats to adapt, redefine their message, and refuse to play by broken rules.