Podcast Summary: "Is the Ukraine War the Next Afghanistan?"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Opinions
• Host/Author: The New York Times Opinion
• Description: You've heard the news, here's what to make of it.
• Episode: Is the Ukraine War the Next Afghanistan?
• Release Date: June 5, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of The Opinions, hosted by Derek Arthur, columnist David French engages in a profound discussion with Megan Stack, a contributing writer for The New York Times and former Moscow bureau chief for the LA Times. The conversation delves into the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, drawing parallels to the protracted war in Afghanistan, and explores the implications for U.S. foreign policy and international diplomacy.

Current State of the Ukraine War

David French opens the discussion by highlighting recent significant developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He references Ukraine's audacious attacks against Russia and a grim report from The Economist suggesting that Russia may have surpassed one million casualties.

Notable Quote:

[00:45] David French: "Over the weekend, we saw some of Ukraine's most audacious attacks against Russia since this war started."

Megan Stack responds by analyzing the shifts since the November presidential election. She suggests that former President Trump underestimated the complexities of the war, particularly Russia's lack of incentive to negotiate and Ukraine's need for security guarantees beyond territorial integrity.

Notable Quote:

[02:11] Megan Stack: "Putin actually doesn't want to end the war yet and doesn't see himself as having any real incentive to make a deal."

Shifts in Perception and Strategic Analysis

French introduces his perspective on the conflict's evolving perception, describing two cycles of irrational optimism that have given way to a grim reality. Initially, the West underestimated Russia's capacity for rapid conquest. Subsequently, there was fleeting optimism about Ukraine's ability to repel Russian forces, which was dashed by the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.

Notable Quote:

[03:24] David French: "There looks like nobody has grounds for optimism. There's not a rational reason to believe that there's going to be a clean breakthrough from either side."

Megan Stack concurs, adding that Russia maintains a slow, grinding military advantage rooted in endurance and historical precedence. She also points out that Trump's erratic foreign policy stance has inadvertently strengthened European resolve, compelling Europe to take a more active role in countering Russia.

Notable Quote:

[06:34] Megan Stack: "Ironically, on this level, I think Trump has been very bad for Putin."

Medium-Term Concerns and Trump's Influence

French categorizes the conflict into short, medium, and long-term phases. He expresses significant concern over the medium term, where the potential withdrawal of U.S. support could create a power vacuum that Russia might exploit. This period, he argues, is particularly perilous for Ukraine.

Notable Quote:

[07:33] David French: "The medium term grows even more dangerous."

Megan Stack extends this analysis by questioning Putin's long-term strategy and expressing uncertainty about his motives. She highlights Trump's inconsistent policies towards Ukraine, which have muddled the U.S. stance and made Russia more resilient and adaptative.

Notable Quote:

[09:37] Megan Stack: "I no longer feel like I have a strong sense of where he's going with all of this."

Theoretical Outcomes and Peacekeeping Prospects

French outlines the possible theories of victory for both Russia and Ukraine. He speculates that Russia's aim might involve annexation and creating a satellite state, while Ukraine's strategy could involve forming defensive alliances akin to a South Korean arrangement.

Notable Quote:

[11:18] David French: "The Ukrainian theory of victory is... ceasefire, deployment of European troops, massive military assistance to turn itself into something like a porcupine."

Megan Stack remains skeptical about the feasibility of a ceasefire agreement that includes European peacekeeping forces. She emphasizes the existential threat posed by Putin's ambitions and underscores the lack of a clear strategy to deal with his regime, suggesting that peacekeeping alone may offer only temporary respite.

Notable Quote:

[13:18] Megan Stack: "I don't think we have an answer of how to deal with Putin."

Long-Term Implications and Historical Perspectives

French contrasts the Ukraine conflict with the Afghan war, noting Ukraine's resilience and the absence of American ground troops. He underscores the courage and sacrifice of the Ukrainian people, suggesting that sustained Western support is crucial to prevent Ukraine's downfall due to lack of assistance.

Notable Quote:

[21:19] David French: "Ukraine is very, very different... we have poured resources into people who are fighting with unbelievable courage."

Megan Stack offers a broader historical perspective, positing that the Ukraine war signifies a shift in the global order. She discusses the rise of nations like China and India, and the differing priorities of the BRICS countries, suggesting that the conflict challenges the U.S. to reassess its priorities and involvement in global affairs.

Notable Quote:

[18:26] Megan Stack: "We are in an era that will be remembered as the changing of world order in some way."

Ethical Considerations and Future Outlook

Stack raises ethical concerns regarding the U.S.'s role in Ukraine, questioning whether strategic interests align with moral obligations. She criticizes the West for supporting Ukraine without committing sufficient resources to ensure its protection against Russian aggression.

Notable Quote:

[25:43] Megan Stack: "I have watched... the west have sort of encouraged Ukraine... but never really come in at a level that would be required to protect them."

French emphasizes the need for humility in addressing the conflict, acknowledging its complexity and the lack of easy solutions. He reiterates the importance of supporting Ukraine to avoid making the conflict a defining catastrophe for the current generation.

Notable Quote:

[25:43] David French: "We should approach this situation with humility because it is extraordinarily difficult, extraordinarily dangerous."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a mutual acknowledgment of the daunting challenges ahead. Both French and Stack agree that the Ukraine war is a pivotal moment with far-reaching consequences, likening its potential historical significance to that of the Afghan war but with distinct differences in resilience and international dynamics.

Notable Quote:

[26:16] Megan Stack: "I don't think there's too much optimism. I agree with the idea that when Putin is gone, these problems will be resolved. I don't think that's true."

David French encapsulates the urgency and historical weight of the situation, emphasizing that the outcome of the Ukraine war will likely shape global geopolitics for generations to come.

Notable Quote:

[23:15] David French: "The outcome of this war could very well dictate what happens in Western Europe and by extension, much of the rest of the world for a generation or more."

Closing Remarks

The podcast wraps up with acknowledgments to the production team and a reminder to listeners to follow The Opinions on various platforms.

This episode provides a nuanced and in-depth analysis of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, drawing valuable parallels to past wars and offering critical insights into the future trajectory of international relations and U.S. foreign policy.