The Security Threat Hundreds of Miles Above Our Heads

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Opinions – "The Security Threat Hundreds of Miles Above Our Heads"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Opinions
• Host/Author: The New York Times Opinion
• Description: One voice, one opinion, in 10 minutes or less.
• Episode: The Security Threat Hundreds of Miles Above Our Heads
• Release Date: December 10, 2024

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Introduction: The Overlooked Frontier of National Security

In the episode titled “The Security Threat Hundreds of Miles Above Our Heads,” Bill Hennigan, a national security correspondent for the New York Times Opinion section, delves into the critical yet often overlooked domain of outer space in the context of modern nuclear threats. Hennigan emphasizes the absence of established rules and norms governing space activities, highlighting the urgent need for international cooperation to prevent potential catastrophes.

The Strategic Importance of Space

[00:15]
Bill Hennigan begins by outlining the significance of space in national security, stating, “What differentiates space from other domains, you know, such as air or sea, is the fact that there are no real rules of the road.” He underscores that space is integral to both civilian life and military operations, with satellites playing a pivotal role in navigation, weather forecasting, communication, and intelligence gathering.

The Establishment of the Space Force

[01:46]
Hennigan references President Trump’s establishment of the Space Force in 2019, noting its initial public perception as a subject of ridicule. He remarks, “There was even a show on Netflix starring the comedian Steve Carell that poked fun at the Space Force spacemen.” Despite the skepticism, Hennigan emphasizes the critical functions of the Space Force, including ensuring the operational integrity of missile warning systems and monitoring threats from adversaries like Russia and China.

Expert Insight: General Chance Saltzman on Space Operations

[02:36]
To provide deeper insights, Hennigan introduces General Chance Saltzman, the Chief of Space Operations for the United States Space Force. General Saltzman remarks, “Probably the average American knows that they use space, but they may not know precisely how much they use space. We used to think about space capabilities as kind of the icing on the cake. It just made things a little better. Now it really is the eggs and the batter of the cake. It is so baked into what we do.”

The Ubiquity of Satellites in Daily Life and Military Operations

[03:08]
Hennigan elaborates on the pervasive reliance on satellites, citing examples such as GPS navigation, weather forecasting, financial transactions, satellite television, and internet services like Starlink. He highlights that the US military’s missile targeting, intelligence gathering, and overall operations are heavily dependent on satellite technology. “The way that a missile finds its way to a target is based off signals from outer space,” Hennigan explains.

Emerging Threats: Russia’s Satellite Programs

[04:13]
Focusing on current threats, Hennigan discusses Russia’s Cosmos 2553 satellite, launched in February 2022, which is reportedly testing components for a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. He warns of the potential devastation such a weapon could wreak, stating, “If such a weapon were ever deployed, it would have the potential to obliterate hundreds, if not thousands, of satellites that are in that orbit.”

The Dangers of Nuclear Detonations in Space

[05:22]
Hennigan draws parallels to historical events, referencing the US nuclear tests in the late 1950s and early 1960s, such as Starfish Prime. He explains the catastrophic consequences of detonating a nuclear weapon in space: “There was a pulse of charged particles that would fry the satellites that were orbiting there. This test ... knocked out a third of all functional satellites that were orbiting there.” He warns of the long-lasting radiation that would create uncontrollable space debris, leading to a cascade effect of satellite destruction.

Preventative Measures and the Need for International Cooperation

[07:26]
In response to the looming threats, General Saltzman advocates for an international approach to mitigate risks. He emphasizes, “The best measure is preventative, not reactive,” advocating for diplomatic efforts to establish norms of behavior in space. Hennigan echoes this sentiment, suggesting the creation of communication channels between major powers like the United States, Russia, and China to prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations. “It only makes sense to try to set up guardrails in a way that a mistake doesn't spill into conflict,” Hennigan asserts.

The Fragility of Existing Space Treaties

[07:43]
Hennigan highlights the precarious state of current space treaties, noting that the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Outer Space Treaty, both established in the 1960s, are either expiring or being disregarded. The Outer Space Treaty, in particular, prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons in space, but its relevance is waning amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics. Hennigan warns, “The Outer Space Treaty ... could also be seen in the eyes of our adversaries as outdated, and that this treaty might be the next one to fall.”

Conclusion: The Imperative for Proactive Space Governance

Wrapping up the discussion, Hennigan stresses the critical importance of proactive measures to secure space. He asserts, “There's just too much at risk right now to turn a blind eye to that fact,” calling for renewed international collaboration to establish robust norms and prevent space from becoming a contested and dangerous battleground.

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Notable Quotes:

• Bill Hennigan [00:15]: “What differentiates space from other domains, you know, such as air or sea, is the fact that there are no real rules of the road.”

• General Chance Saltzman [02:51]: “We used to think about space capabilities as kind of the icing on the cake. It just made things a little better. Now it really is the eggs and the batter of the cake.”

• Bill Hennigan [05:22]: “Imagine if there was such a detonation today. ... It would render useless any of the satellites in its immediate vicinity.”

• General Chance Saltzman [07:26]: “The best measure is preventative, not reactive.”

• Bill Hennigan [07:43]: “It only makes sense to try to set up guardrails in a way that a mistake doesn't spill into conflict.”

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Final Thoughts:

“The Security Threat Hundreds of Miles Above Our Heads” serves as a compelling exploration of the vulnerabilities and strategic imperatives associated with space in the modern age. Bill Hennigan effectively bridges the gap between complex national security issues and public understanding, emphasizing the urgent need for updated international treaties and cooperative measures to safeguard the final frontier.

Transcript

[Host]

This is the Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.

[Bill Hennigan]

Hi, I'm Bill Hennigan. I cover national security for the New York Times Opinion section. For the last year, I've been writing on nuclear weapons in the modern age for our series at the Brink. And one of the things that people don't often think about when it's related to nuclear weapons is outer space. What differentiates space from other domains, you know, such as air or sea, is the fact that there are no real rules of the road. There are no basic norms of behavior when it comes to space. In his second term, it's imperative for President Elect Trump to lead an international effort to codify rules to prevent a catastrophe unfolding and out outer space, eliminating the various satellite systems that we all depend upon. A lot of analysts and military people and diplomatic people are just saying it's just time to make this normal, like we do with all the other aspects of our functional lives. In 2019, Trump established the Space Force as its own uniformed service, just as the Marines and the Navy and the air for and what the Space Force does, you know, it became a punchline for a lot of Americans. There was even a show on Netflix starring the comedian Steve Carell that poked fun at the Space Force spacemen.

[Unknown Speaker]

This is a great adventure that we are embarking on today. We are training for the worst case scenario, but the best case scenario is colonizing the galaxy. Imagine years from now, you could be on some distant star harvesting corn.

[Bill Hennigan]

But what they do is a critical aspect of US Military operations. They ensure that missile warning and communication satellites work properly. But they also monitor for these emerging threats that we've seen from foreign adversaries like Russia and China that endanger those very expensive and critical satellites. So I spoke to someone who knows more about this than pretty much anybody.

[General Chance Saltzman]

My name is General Chance Saltzman. I'm the chief of Space operations for the United States Space Force.

[Bill Hennigan]

One of the things that General Saltzman lays plain is the various ways that satellites shape our modern life.

[General Chance Saltzman]

Probably the average American knows that they use space, but they may not know precisely how much they use space. We used to think about space capabilities as kind of the icing on the cake. It just made things a little better. Now it really is the eggs and the batter of the cake. It is so baked into what we do.

[Bill Hennigan]

We depend upon GPS satellites to navigate our way around cities or across the country. If you look for tomorrow's Weather, for instance, the forecasting is done off of weather satellites. Going to a gas pump and swiping your credit card is timestamped by the gps. There's satellite tv, of course, and smaller satellites like Starlink that are enabling Internet in remote corners of the globe. But it goes beyond that. There are so many applications that the US Military is dependent upon when it comes to satellites. The way that a missile finds its way to a target is based off signals from outer space. The intelligence on other nations and what they're up to is because of spy satellites in space. And watching all of these satellites in outer space and ensuring that they operate the way that they're intended to is Saltzman's job.

[General Chance Saltzman]

Space is space. It's big. The Space Force is currently tracking about 40,000 objects in space.

[Bill Hennigan]

And at the top of the list is Cosmos 2550 satellite that Russia launched in February of 2022. And Cosmos 2553, it's alleged, is testing components for a future nuclear anti satellite weapon. And it operates in this very strange orbit above low earth orbit, where all of our most critical satellites operate. And if such a weapon were ever deployed, it would have the potential to obliterate hundreds, if not thousands of satellites that are in that orbit. Detonating a nuclear weapon in outer space is not a good idea. But you know, the United States military did do it in the late 1950s and the early 1960s, years before Neil Armstrong ever set foot on the moon. The United States was seeing what the implications might be of detonating a nuclear weapon in outer space. So this is not speculative. What we know about what would happen, we've done this before in those early tests. What scientists found out was there was a pulse of charged particles that would fry the satellites that were orbiting there. And the best known one was Starfish Prime. And at the time, there were only about two dozen satellites that were in orbit. But this test, it knocked out a third of all functional satellites that were orbiting there. Imagine if there was such a detonation today. Dependent upon the blast size, of course, and the size of the weapon itself, it would render useless any of the satellites in its immediate vicinity. But then it would leave this lingering radiation shell that would stay there. And if a satellite whizzed through that at 17,000 miles per hour, its electronics and its systems would begin to fail. So then you have a bunch of orbiting junk that are no longer controllable, and this cascading domino effect of satellites careening into one another traveling at 17,000 miles per hour become real. Perils to one another. A nuclear weapon going off in space does not just target your adversaries satellites, it's indiscriminate. All satellites are at risk with such a detonation. So it's in nobody's interest that this. The US Military doesn't like talking a lot about what it does in outer space. But I asked General Saltzman, what's the way that we can avoid such a thing from ever occurring.

[General Chance Saltzman]

It's an international approach to make sure that as much pressure is applied against irresponsible type behaviors before those irresponsible acts occur. The best measure is preventative, not reactive.

[Bill Hennigan]

General Saltzman's opinion is basically the same as what underpins all US Nuclear policy, which is deterrence, and to ensure that something like this could never occur. And right now, despite all the advancements that we've made in outer space, there are only two agreements that govern nuclear weapons in the cosmos, both of which were signed in the 1960s. The first is the Limited Test Ban Treaty, which forbids those nuclear tests that we had taken in outer space. And the second is the Outer Space Treaty that says that the United States, the ussr, and the signatories, since, all agree that they will never put a nuclear weapon or weapons of mass destruction in outer space. One by one, the treaties are either expiring or they're being ripped up. And the concern is the Outer Space Treaty, which has been so important for all these decades, could also be seen in the eyes of our adversaries as outdated, and that this treaty might be the next one to fall. Because President Elect Trump has shown an interest in space, and he understands clearly that space is a critical aspect of the way we live. He should make a diplomatic push with other countries to try to come up with norms of behavior in outer space. And one of the easy things to do is to set up a communications channel, a hotline between the United States, Russia, and China to ensure that there's less of a chance of miscalculation or mistake or misunderstanding one another when it comes to space operations. History has shown that wherever human beings are, you know, conflict follows soon after. So it only makes sense to try to set up guardrails in a way that a mistake doesn't spill into conflict. And the only way that we can do that is through communication. And there's just too much at risk right now to turn a blind eye to that fact.

[Unknown Speaker]

To see the rest of our series on the threat of nuclear war in the modern age, including extensive graphics and photography, look for at the Brink from New York Times Opinion.

[Host]

If you like this show, follow it on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. This show is produced by Derek Arthur, Sophia Alvarez, Boyd, Visaka Derba, Phoebe Lett, Christina Samulewski, and Jillian Weinberger. It's edited by Kari Pitkin, Allison Brusek, and Annie Rose Strasser. Engineering, mixing and original music by Isaac Jones, sonia Herrero, Pat McCusker, Carol Saburo, and Afim Shapiro. Additional music by Amin Sohota. The Fact Check team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marjlocker, and Michelle Harris. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta, Christina Samulewski and Adrian Rivera. The executive producer of Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Dresser.