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The Opinions
Tom Friedman: Trump Is a ‘Small Man in a Big Time’
00:20:24
Nearly 60 days in, the president is failing to engage in long-term thinking.
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- [00:00]
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Podcast Host
This is the Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times Opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.
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Patrick Healy
I'm Patrick Healy, deputy editor of New York Times Opinion, and this is the First Hundred Days, a weekly series examining President Trump's use of power and his drive to change America. This week I wanted to talk to my colleague Tom Friedman about how the world we knew is being unraveled by its most powerful player, America. You have an American president slapping tariffs on our friends, giving license to Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu to act with impunity, and thumbing his nose at America's judges and courts. Tom has been the foreign affairs columnist at the Times for decades, and he has his finger on the big problems facing our country and the world. So I wanted to get Tom's insights on how Trump is trying to reshape reality through sheer force of will. Tom, thanks for joining me.
- [01:48]
Tom Friedman
Always a pleasure, Pat.
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Patrick Healy
Let's start with the economy, Tom. Trump is asking Americans to go along with higher groceries and cost of living temporarily, he says, in exchange for a future where America will be in a stronger economic position. And we just had the treasury secretary call this stock market decline healthy, quote, unquote, and say it's better to have a market correction now rather than a crash later. And, you know, we're both hearing the recession talk, too. But voters in November, they wanted a president who would stabilize the economy and make life more affordable. I still think that's what Trump will be judged on in the end. But do you think it matters to Trump what voters want?
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Tom Friedman
Well, you know, Pat, if you don't build your economic plan on hard truths and solid foundations, you're gonna get a recession just for a recession's sake. And you're not gonna get a recession that clears the way for a new future. Now, let's remember Caroline Levitt, Trump's White House spokesman, said the other day that tariffs are a tax cut. Let me repeat that. She said tariffs are a tax cut. Now tariffs are many things. That is, they can be paid by the exporter, the importer, the merchant in this country, or passed on to consumers. But there's one thing tariffs aren't, and that's a tax cut. Okay? And that's just calling black white. Now that scares the heck out of me. Either you believe that, you know, in which case that's shocking, or you were told to say that, which is even more shocking. But what is for sure is that is not true. That's a lie. And so if you build your economics on a lie, it's going to end badly. Just as Trump said. President Zelensky of Ukraine is a dictator. You can like Zelenskyy, you can not like Zelenskyy, but if you call him a dictator, you're building your policy on Ukraine on a lie. And that's what worries me about these people.
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Patrick Healy
That's how they use language, Tom. Right. I mean, what do you think Jerome Powell was thinking in his head when he hears that they're calling tariffs tax cuts or even the Treasury Secretary? I mean, these people are supposed to be credible people.
- [04:24]
Tom Friedman
Well, let's start with Scott Bessen, the Treasury secretary. He was a hedge fund manager. I have zero doubt, Pat, that if he were still running his hedge fund, he would be totally short the market right now. I mean, there's no way he would be doing this. And Besant to me is exhibit A of the fundamental truth, and we've talked about this before, of Trump 2 administration, Trump 1 was surrounded by buffers and Trump too is surrounded by amplifiers. There is simply no buffer anymore between what Trump hears at the Mar A Lago bar and becomes treasury policy days later or foreign policy days later. Now, as for Jerome Powell, I can't say for sure, but judging from everything he's, I think, said and believed over the years is he knows how you cut the government budget, how you reduce spending, and it's not by gutting the crown jewels of the American government, which are our institutions.
- [05:24]
Patrick Healy
And Tom, China is watching all of this. And Trump pretends at least to say that he cares a great deal about competition with China, Americans position against China. But I find myself wondering, and you watch China closely, you visit there, you talk to officials there. How do they see this kind of long term trajectory of what America is trying to do with tariffs, with trade, with its own economic house, trying to get it in order? And what does that look like for the future?
- [06:01]
Tom Friedman
Well, I'd say a couple things about China and Russia here, where they're aligned. Number one is these two countries spend a huge amount of money on disinformation and trying to soil the American brand around the world. They don't have to spend a dime anymore, Pat. All they have to do is quote Donald Trump. When Donald Trump says Zelensky is a dictator, what does Putin have to say? He just has to quote him, hey, guys, save all that money, okay? That we were trying to persuade Americans that Zelensky is a dictator. Just quote President Trump, number one. Number two, China and Putin have the exact same agenda, which is to shrink American power, keep it bottled up in North America, get the Americans out of Europe and the Americans out of the Pacific Asian theater. And anything that does that is just perfect for them. And that is their alliance. It's to shrink American influence in the world. Now, I happen to think that's crazy from a Chinese point of view. What I've said to the Chinese is you keep saying you're tired of America setting the rules of the global order. Hey, tell me something. How did you do in this world ordered by America? You did pretty well, I'd say. What are the alternative set of rules on trade and commerce and intellectual property that you want to impose that you think you're going to do better in? China could not have done better in any world other than the world that America created after World War II. So I think they're on a very much wrong track there.
- [07:42]
Patrick Healy
What's fascinating, Tom, about the world that we've had for the last 80 years is that the country that frankly benefited the Most from that 80 year world order that lifted a lot of boats was America. I mean, you've written about how more people, more countries got slices of the pie over the last 80 years, but America was the one that was always getting the biggest slice. And it seems as if Trump looks at the world and he doesn't believe in the notion of a rising tide lifts all boats. It's rather a survival of the fittest, you know, And America wants the whole pie, not just a big slice.
- [08:23]
Tom Friedman
Exactly. At least half of it. You know, Pat, I was speaking to a friend of mine from the previous administration the other day, and we were very hard on ourselves. I think my generation, I was born in 1953, so my mom was in the Navy in World War II. And I grew up covering Jim Baker, George H.W. bush. These are men who fought in the military. And I covered the reunification of Germany. So I was very aware of that World I think one of the great failures of my generation, both journalists and political figures, is that we actually didn't teach the next generation about that world. They take the world as it is right now for granted, and they just don't appreciate the role America played in forging this new world and the sacrifices that people made. And I think it's been a real failure of education, Democrats, and Republicans to bring along generations X, Y, and Z to appreciate what is being lost right now.
- [09:31]
Patrick Healy
I want to bring up a parallel between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has sought to fire the head of his domestic intelligence agency, saying he's lost trust in him, which sounds like a loyalty test. I want to ask you, Tom, what happens to a country when its leaders don't explain their actions or govern based on sound reasoning, but instead they make loyalty the most important trait?
- [10:01]
Tom Friedman
You know, I've always said to me, Trump and Netanyahu, brothers from different mothers, and there's only one good thing about both of them, and that's God only made one of each. Okay? The real parallel with Netanyahu, though, is today, this moment, is with Putin, because I think where Putin and Netanyahu both are is that they both understand that forever war is their friend. It's Putin's friend because he uses it to completely strangle any political opposition in Russia. He absolutely reinforces his iron grip on power. The same thing with Netanyahu. Netanyahu knows that as long as the Gaza war continues, there is not going to be a commission of inquiry into his responsibility for Israel suffering the worst death of Jews since the Holocaust and a surprise attack. So Netanyahu wants the war to go on. It's what keeps his cabinet together. Putin wants the war to go on. It's what reinforces his grip on power.
- [11:05]
Patrick Healy
What you're describing could be seen also as them just saying this is opportunity, folks. With Donald Trump in power in the White House, I can act with impunity because I don't have America or kind of a strong world order constraining me anymore. I'm not afraid of consequences. And it gets back to the word of the week, Tom, which feels like it's impunity, what Trump is doing on foreign policy stage with judges and courts in America. You have watched so many presidents act, try to act boldly. They get constrained, they get pushed back on. Where does impunity lead, Tom? And when you look at the world stage, what concerns you the most? What is actually the most dangerous dynamic for America right now?
- [11:58]
Tom Friedman
You know, Pat Listening to you, I'm thinking of the story, probably apocryphal. No one knows for sure where Muhammad Ali was flying on an airplane and he was about to take off and he didn't have his seatbelt on. And the stewardess came by and said, you have to put your seatbelt on. And he said, superman don't need no seatbelt. And the stewardess said, well, Superman don't need no airplane, you know, so these guys think they're Superman, but we all need seat belts in the end because you can't fly. And the laws of gravity will eventually prevail. It's not just impunity, Pat. What's going on in Washington today is a combination I've never seen President acting with impunity, backed by a party which controls the House, the Senate, and effectively the Supreme Court that is absolutely terrified of challenging him on any issue, backed by the world's richest man, who can fund a primary against any of these people and who can really intimidate them with social media and launch a Twitter mob against them. So it's this combination of impunity and utter fear of getting in the way of it that I have never seen before. And so to me, the core failure of the Trump administration, Pat, is it's all first order thinking. Okay, first order thinking says, I'm gonna end the war in Ukraine, and for that we have to be more pro Putin and less pro Ukrainian. Okay, that's first order thinking. What's second order thinking? Second order thinking says if we abandon our traditional European allies of 80 years and do something we've never done before, sell out a country that is looking to defend and promote its liberty to a country that is promoting autocracy. If we do that, oh my God, what will other American allies do? I'll tell you what other American allies will do, called Japan, Korea, Poland, Saudi Arabia, they will say that America's guarantee to us is worthless and therefore we better get a nuclear weapon. Then we go to third order thinking. Well, what happens if the whole nuclear non proliferation regime, one of the great achievements of the post Cold War world, to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. What if that breaks down and suddenly all these countries go out and get nuclear weapons, then what are we going to need? We're going to need a greater anti missile shield. And what will that cost us? A trillion dollars. So if you just stop at the first order thinking, it may feel good for a day, but when you look at the second and third order effects of these things, it could be devastating.
- [14:48]
Patrick Healy
You do Wonder, Tom, with Trump and Putin and Netanyahu, did they have any kind of understanding for or really feel any kind of responsibility for strengthening society in the end, I mean, Trump believes his approach to the economy on tariffs will lead to a stronger domestic economic position for the United States. But I'm not sure they see those second order, third order effects. They're just so narrowly focused on what they see as their own ends. So let me take the other side of this. What's the best way to counter Trump on all these moves? What's the counter message here?
- [15:33]
Tom Friedman
Well, what would a Democratic foreign policy sound like? Here's to me, what it would sound like. First of all, what world are we living in? Everything today that is complex is made in an ecosystem, whether it's an iPhone or an electric car or an MRNA vaccine. So that's the world we're living in. Well, if we're living in an ecosystem world, what do we, America, want? We want to be in touch with more ecosystems and we want to make sure that the highest value end of those ecosystem products are designed in America. Now, let's connect that then with hardcore foreign policy. What then should be American foreign policy? Well, let's go back to what was going on in the world on October 6, 2023, the day before Hamas launched its attack on Israel. On that day, Ukraine was trying to join the western ecosystem, the European Union, and Israel was actually trying to join the eastern ecosystem with Saudi Arabia, which would then anchor a kind of Middle Eastern European Union. Russia stopped the first and Iran and Hamas stopped the second. Therefore, what should our foreign policy be? It should be to say to Netanyahu, you are not acting in our interest because our interest is a Saudi Israel entente, and that requires an Israeli Palestinian entente. You are not acting in our interest. And it's to say to Putin, if you want this war to end, then why don't you stop it? Because you started it. And in order to drive that point through your fucking head, we are going to triple down on our aid on Ukraine and make sure they have all the cards. That's, to me, where Democrats should be. You can't just say we're for this and we're for that. You've got to persuade voters that you have a take on the world and this is how America fits in, and this is how they fit in, and this is how it benefits them.
- [17:31]
Patrick Healy
Tom, I'm thinking about something you wrote in a recent column. You quoted that famous line From President Kennedy's 1961 speech, ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country and you put a twist on it, saying that under Trump's leadership, it's ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for President Trump. That is the story that he is telling, that he is conveying. And we're just heading into this future that's based on no blueprint from the past. And it's one that seems deeply self centered.
- [18:14]
Tom Friedman
If you were to ask me, Pat, what's the biggest thing that surprised you about what Trump has done, it's the complete absence of, of any desire to pull the country together and the complete desire to drive a completely partisan agenda. And I'll give you a simple example. It's the board of the Kennedy center, this wonderful center for Performing arts in Washington, D.C. that was always bipartisan, always had Democrats and Republicans, and he came in, fired all the Democrats on the board and put his own people there. It's that going to that next stage of where we never went before, of complete rule or die politics. You know, when I'm in power, we get everything. It's our time to eat and you get nothing. And I think what Trump, of the many things he doesn't understand is that I think, and this is what Democrats, I think should be playing to the most underappreciated political attitude in America today is actually the quest for unity. People want leaders who will pull us together, not pull us apart. Yeah, I know it plays in 30% here and 30% there, but that's not where the country is. And that's why he is going to fail, because we have big things to do and big hard things can only be done together, as my friend Whitley Wiesler said about Benjamin Netanyahu. And it's true of Trump as well. He's a small man in a big time. Everything else is just commentary.
- [19:54]
Patrick Healy
Tom, thanks so much for joining me.
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Tom Friedman
Really a pleasure, Pat.
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Podcast Host
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