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The Opinions
Tom Friedman: Will Israel’s War Ever End?
00:22:51
After his latest trip to Israel, the columnist shares how it has changed in the past six months.
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Podcast Host
Show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times Opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.
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Patrick Healy
I'm Patrick Healy, deputy editor for New York Times Opinion. My colleague, the columnist Tom Friedman, just returned from a reporting trip to Israel. The war has been grinding on in Gaza for more than 19 months. There are around 20 living hostages still there and it's estimated that more than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed. I wanted to talk to Tom about what he learned on his trip about Israel's future and about a growing anti war sentiment that he saw in the country. Tom, thanks for joining me.
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Tom Friedman
Pat Always a pleasure.
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Patrick Healy
Tom. The war shows no signs of slowing down and you write about how anger toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is growing, including within his own party. I want to start with your trip. What was the biggest difference you noticed in Israel? Israel from your conversations there and in what you saw compared to your last trip to the country last fall?
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Tom Friedman
Well, Pat, I'll start from the very first morning I was there. I scheduled a breakfast with Yair Golan, the head of the Democratic Party, basically the mainstream liberal party in Israel today. And we had talked about a range of things. But after breakfast, as we were walking out of the hotel, Pat, his phone I could see, was blowing up and I didn't know what it was about. And they explained to me that he'd given an interview, I think the evening before with Israel Radio in which he decried basically this war with no end, with no plan, where so many Palestinian civilians were being killed and used the term that Palestinian children were being killed as a hobby and absolutely condemned that. Well, you can imagine what that did in Israel, just ignited a firestorm from the right, condemned him, demanded his resignation. It was all, how dare you suggest that the Israeli army was killing Palestinian children as a hobby. So I then watched this firestorm absolutely spread over the next two days. I was there and it more and more morphed into anxiety, discomfort, frustration with the fact that Israelis were at war for 600 days now in Gaza. There's no Victory, no sign the last hostages are going to be returned. Every sign that Netanyahu is continuing the war to keep himself in power. And a growing chorus outside that the number of Palestinians being killed there, civilians now was just out of control. And so that really got me thinking and then listening very carefully to every voice I heard, and it was clear to me that something new was going on. That for the first time from the left, from the center and from the right, you had Israelis saying this war has got to come to an end. And polls were indicating this as well. There are those on the right who feel the war has simply been bungled. They're pro war, they want a victory, but they feel the administration in Israel has bungled it. There are those from the center, like Ehud Olmert, who are very, they travel abroad a lot. Pat, and he just stated we are committing war crimes in Gaza because he's confronting that truth everywhere he goes. And there are people from the left like Yair Golan, who simply, he probably would have chosen different words to express it because he gave a kind of free shot to his critics, but who are just not going to remain silent anymore. I wouldn't call it a full blown anti war movement yet. That will not happen in Israel until the hostages are released. Because for the majority of Israelis, as long as these hostages are cruelly being held by Hamas, their sympathy for Palestinians in Gaza is quite limited. But we're still seeing the beginning of something really new.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, was the thrust of your conversations around criticism of the execution of the war, of military operations, or was it more existential than that? More in the space of what is the point of all this continuing on and on, or was it something else?
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Tom Friedman
So depends who you talk to. For some people, it's just, I'm tired of this, I want it over. And you'll remember it, because we did a column on this very, very early on. I said the foremost dangerous words in the Middle east are once and for all. And they were promised we're going to finish this problem once and for all. And it's clear to them there is no once and for all number one after a huge sacrifice. So that's certainly for some people. For others, there is the moral question. But the point I pointed out to people, including to Yair Golan when we talked, is that something very technical but very important? Pat, no international journalists have been allowed to Gaza to independently report. If you are a journalist like myself and you want to go into Gaza, the perimeter of which is controlled by Israel, you have to Go in with an Israeli army escort and pool and therefore your access is really limited. There will be a day this war ends. I don't know when. And when it does, Gaza is going to be overwhelmed by reporters and photographers. And when that happens, Pat, it's going to be a very bad day for Israel and it's going to be a very bad day for world Jewry, because the scenes are going to be horrific. And it's not that we haven't gotten glimpses and whatnot, but the real stories also, there are evidently a lot of bodies still buried under the rubble that couldn't be excavated. And when you talk to Israeli soldiers, people who served there, one of the things they talk about that they never forget is just the stench because evidently there are just a lot of bodies that have not been recovered. So there is a real looming, challenged Israel when this war is over. As you know, I am no apologist for Hamas. As mendacious as Netanyahu has been in prolonging this war, Hamas has been mendacious in starting this war and perpetrating itself. This war would be over if Hamas announced tomorrow, we're going to return all the hostages, we are going to leave Gaza and we're ready to turn it over to an international peacekeeping force. End of war, end of story. They won't do that because they've actually been using their own people as a form of human sacrifice to draw attention to the Palestinian cause. Shame, shame, shame on you. They will live in infamy as well.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, you have had so many conversations about what is happening in Gaza, about that picture that you just painted, about how Israeli society is dealing with this era and this war. What's a conversation from this trip that you just can't get out of your head?
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Tom Friedman
You know, Pat, I did a dialogue with Lucy Arish, who's a very well known Israeli newscaster. She's actually an Israeli Arab Muslim woman married to an Israeli Jew and they have a son together, a four year old named Adam. And we did this dialogue together at Tel Aviv University. And then afterwards we were just talking about the fact that we had both arrived at the dialogue completely bleary eyed. The. Because at 3am that morning the national sort of siren went off because the Houthis had launched a rocket toward Tel Aviv where we both were staying, where she lives and where I was staying in a hotel. And this siren, it's hard to describe, Pat, but it's this sort of wavy wail and it's just incredibly enervating. And then it's followed by like the voice of God saying, take shelter, take shelter, take. So it woke us both up. We came to the thing very tired and she told me this story that on Memorial Day, every year in Israel, we just had our memorial day for our fallen soldiers. They have a memorial day for theirs. And the way Israel marks its memorial day for its fallen soldiers is that at noon that day, a national siren goes off and wherever you are, you stop and stand in respect for the fallen for two minutes. It's actually a remarkable sight to see if you're walking down the street, if you're in an office, if you're at home. So if you're a four year old, you've been through this. And Lucy told me that when the siren went off the other day, cause of the Houthi missile, it's a different siren. The Remembrance Day siren is just a steady blast. But her four year old son was playing on the floor and he immediately grabbed up all his toys and ran for the safe room in their house, a room with no windows. And Lucy said I had to explain to him that, no, no, no, this siren is for our fallen heroes. The other siren is for the Houthi rockets. Well, that's a lot to process for a 4 year old, but it's a sign, Pat, that you've been too long at war when you have to explain the difference between sirens to your 4 year old.
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Patrick Healy
That's such a powerful story tomorrow, Tom, we're not far from the two year mark of October 7th and the start of the war. And it seemed like for a time there was a high tolerance in Israeli society for the military operations in Gaza, given Hamas attack, given the hostages. But I want to make sure I'm precise here. Were you seeing the start of some kind of tipping point and happening in Israeli society, or did it feel more like early signals that something may be happening?
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Tom Friedman
I think I saw the tipping point to a tipping point. And by that I mean the first signs of people really speaking out in blunt language about the level of killing of civilians that's going on in Gaza that Israelis have not actually been that exposed to by Israeli television or the media. But now it's become inescapable, not only because what they're seeing and hearing, but because so many of Israel's traditional allies, particularly the European Union leaders, are now just speaking out bluntly. And so again, until the hostages are released, the vast majority of Israelis are not going to be moved by that. But it's telling me that when the hostages are released, if There is a deal. There is a storm coming. There's going to be a real national wrenching debate, discussion, fight over what was accomplished in this war or why was it prosecuted, why did it happen? And I think that's going to be very challenging for Netanyahu to survive. He is such a survivor, I would never rule him out. But it is not an accident, Pat, that Netanyahu is doing everything he can to delay that reckoning moment, because something in his gut tells him it's coming for him.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, the US has long aligned with Israel as a strong democracy in the Middle East. But listening to you and listening to this notion that the democratically elected leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, may be delaying this reckoning, that it may be in his interests to delay this reckoning, you find yourself wondering, how does Israeli society feel about a prime minister who may be putting his own interests, as you report, ahead of the interests of the country? What's the most important thing for people to know about today's Israel?
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Tom Friedman
Just as the Republican Party today controls the House, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the White House, in Israeli terms, as long as he can keep his majority together, he can stay in power till 2026. So there's enormous frustration that you see things in front of your face that you know are wrong and awful and that this administration in Israel is like one here is really now pushing up against constitutional limits. It's like a membrane in America and in Israel, and both governments are pushing up against that membrane. And you're just holding your breath, Pat, for the day they punch right through it. And Israel, we may be seeing it in the next few weeks because Netanyahu has fired the director of the Shin Bet, Israel's domestic combination, FBI, sort of military intelligence. It's a huge and giant and important institution in Israel, run by a man named Ronen Barr. Ronen Barr is currently investigating Prime Minister Netanyahu's own office team for having actually been covertly working with Qatar to improve their image on the world stage and taking money from them. And Netanyahu fired him, and the Supreme Court in Israel ruled you cannot do that. So we are maybe days, Pat, from a real constitutional crisis in Israel. Does Bibi step back and withdraw his nomination of the new head of their FBI, or does he insist on going ahead with it? If that happens, they're gonna burst through that membrane called the rule of law. And then it's, Katie, bar the door.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, you've written about how Netanyahu is increasingly giving in to the most far right elements of his political coalition. I know this is dangerous, Tom, but can you take us inside Netanyahu's head right now? Kind of. He has all of these competing interests that you laid out. He's got this relationship with Donald Trump. He has a once and for all mentality that you described before. What is going on inside his head right now?
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Tom Friedman
Well, with the caveat that he and I don't exchange Hanukkah cards, what I would tell you is that everyone you talk to who knows Bibi, and I've known him for, I don't know, 40 years, will tell you that he really changed when this corruption case came down and he became sort of desperate for political survival because Israel has imprisoned, convicted and imprisoned a prime minister and a president. This is a country that actually puts its leaders in jail. Netanyahu knows that. And after that, he just became like this trapped cat that was going to do everything it could to politically survive. And what that involved was bringing into the center of Israeli politics people who had never been there before, people like Betsell O. Smotrich, the finance minister with a position in the Defense Ministry, and Ben gvir, the national Security minister, who now is head of the police. And as I told American Jews, you've actually never met Jews like this. You didn't go to Jewish summer camp with these guys, okay? They just walked out of the Second Temple. They are that extreme. And they now have central positions of power, and their goal is annexation of the west bank and Gaza. And Netanyahu knows, and they threaten him constantly, if you don't continue the war until total victory, we are going to pull out of the government, and therefore, you could go to jail. And that is what greets him every single day. I would add this Pat, and this is a point I made to every Israeli I spoke to, which is that, folks, do you realize what's going on here? Israel, as a result of this war and as a result, in fact, of decisions Benjamin Netanyahu took, destroyed his bull in Lebanon, Hezbollah in Syria, and dealt a severe blow to Iran's military capability, its ability to project power. As a result of that, of those military actions, Netanyahu basically liberated Lebanon from the grip of Hezbollah, liberated Syria from the grip of Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, and Bashar Assad, and created the conditions in the region where we are actually talking seriously. Donald Trump met with the new president of Syria, making peace with Israel, Lebanon possibly making peace with Israel. In other words, Netanyahu has created a whole new geopolitical context, but he refuses to reap what he sowed because to take advantage of it to bring these parties into peace with Israel. They all demand he initiate a process with Palestinians, no matter how long, toward a two state solution. And he will not do that cuz he knows he'll be ousted by his right wing partners. So we're not just seeing garden variety bad decisions being made. We are seeing historically bad decisions being made.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, President Trump and the American government do have leverage where Netanyahu and the Israeli government are concerned. Do Israelis expect Trump and the Americans to use that leverage? Or is this a dance between the Trump White House and the Netanyahu government that just kind of continues and continues and continues?
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Tom Friedman
Well, so many Israelis asked me, will Trump save us? And I did have to tell them, when you're hoping for Trump to save your democracy, you're not in a good place. That said, Trump has his own interests and his own understanding of American interests. And it's driving Netanyahu crazy because when he was elected he thought, we are on easy street. Don't have to worry about Kamala Harris, no Biden, no aoc. We got Donald Trump, baby. And I warned them at the time because I knew Trump had some issues with Netanyahu. But it turns out that Trump disagrees with Netanyahu on a fundamental thing. Trump has decided he wants to make peace with Iran. He wants to do everything he can to defuse the Iranian nuclear threat diplomatically. And he sees this as is not only a Nobel Peace Prize, but also as a very legitimate way to defuse the tensions in the region. So this has put Netanyahu, has made him crazy because not only is Trump singing from a different hymnbook when it comes to Iran now than Netanyahu, but Netanyahu can't pull the old levers. He could when Democrats were in office. If Biden tried this, Netanyahu would call up Lindsey Graham, he'd call up the evangelicals, they would all lobby Republicans. Then the Republicans would all use their strength in Congress to block the administration. End of story. Now suddenly Bibi looks for that lever, that Republican lever, that evangelical lever. He pulls it and it comes off in his hand and he's saying, oh my God, I got no juice in Washington.
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Patrick Healy
Tom, what should the American government ideally be doing in this situation with Israel? Do you see a policy play, leverage being used that isn't being used right now? Or is the focus really on Iran and Saudi Arabia and you just keep the pressure on Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire, but kind of no more than that? Or do you see some other kind of ideal approach for the Americans in this.
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Tom Friedman
Well, the ideal approach is for Trump to be as tough with Netanyahu as he is with Zelenskyy and say to him that this war ends, it ends. Now. Here's what's going to happen. You're going to get out of Gaza. Hamas is going to give you all their hostages in one fell swoop. You'll give them some prisoners. In exchange, their leadership is going to agree, whatever's left of it, to leave Gaza. And we're going to put in an international peacekeeping force in Gaza that will involve us, it'll involve Arab states, and it'll have a contribution from the Palestinian Authority. We're going to use that to stabilize that territory, rebuild it, and after five years, there'll be a Palestinian election. Okay? We need a real transition period. During that period, Israel can maintain control of the entire security perimeter around Gaza to assure Israel that, you know, nothing can. No weapons can get in there and no violent groups can come and attack Israel. Whatever the details, something like that is where we need to be. And if Netanyahu says, yeah, but what about if Hamas does this or that, I would say we will handle it, or we'd even give you permission to handle it. But this thing ends now. You gotta get out of there. You are dragging yourself down, you're dragging your society down, and you're making our geopolitics impossible. And if you're not ready to do that, I'm going to publicly call you out and I'm going to blow up Israeli politics just like I've blown up the politics of Canada or any of these other countries. And I think that it would trigger, I'm sure, many Bibi supporters, you know, to stick with him. And he'll stand up and say, I'm standing up against the world. But for many other Israelis who are moderate and understand the situation, I think that they would welcome us. You know, I've said this so many times, Pat. Friends don't let friends drive drunk, and Israel today is driving drunk.
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Patrick Healy
Tom. Thanks so much for the conversation, Pat.
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Tom Friedman
Always a pleasure.
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Podcast Host
If you like this show, follow it on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Opinions is produced by Derek Arthur, Vishaka, Darba, Kristina Samulewski and Gillian Weinberger. It's edited by Kari Pitkin and Alison Bruzek. Engineering, mixing and original music by Isaac Jones, sonia Herrero, Pat McCusker, Carol Sabaro and Afim Shapiro. Additional music by Aman Sahota. The fact Check team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker, and Michelle Harris. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta and Christina Samulewski. The director of Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Strasser.
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Tom Friedman
Sam.